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A dollar and a dream true for PB and MM?

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Perfect Timing.

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Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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Posted: September 1, 2007, 11:02 pm - IP Logged

You're saying you have 1 chance to win out of every 29,221.592.4 possible outcomes, but I'm assuming each chance is a different combination and only 1 of those 5 chances can win so why not just compare that 1 chance to win to the 146,107,957 combinations you don't have.

If you want fractions, divide your 5 chances by 146,107,962 and you'll get the exact percentage.

There isn't 29,221,592.4 possible outcomes! There are 146,107,962 possible outcomes!

Gonna win.Big Smile

    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
    Harbinger
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    Posted: September 1, 2007, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

    I did not say 5 sets of 29,221,592.4 possibilities. You have 5/146,107,962 OR 1/29,221,592.4 chance of winning the jackpot. You still have 5 sets of 146,107,962 possibilities. I'm just converting it so that the numerator is 1.

    I think you are starting to understand.  You are correct in the mechanics of reducing the fraction.

    But like you say you are converting it. The draw is all inclusive, it is a singular event, by having 5 tickets doesn't reduce the size of the possibilities by five, because you would have to be able to apply the 5 tickets simultaneously to five reduced sets of possible outcomes, that is not what happens.  You are trying to MATCH one of the 146,107,962 to one of your 5.  Look at it like this, it is as if you were trying to match each one of your 5 combos to five separate draws instantaneously when you convert and say 1/29,221,592.4 .

    Except it happens more like this expressed with fractions when a game is played, this is what happens:

    your first set is 1 / 146,107,962

    your second is 1 / 146,107,962 -1

    your third is 1 / 146,107,962 -2

    your fourth is 1 / 146,107,962 -3

    your fifth is 1 / 146,107,962 -4

    This happens instantaneously!

    You see each of the five outcomes you chose are almost equal, in the possibility of matching one of the 146,107,962 possible outcomes, you have only reduced the outcome by five of the 146,107,962 outcomes. When you play five lines: In fractions it looks like this 1/146,107,958 not 1/29,221,592 it is a very different number.

      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
      Harbinger
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      Posted: September 1, 2007, 11:29 pm - IP Logged

      There isn't 29,221,592.4 possible outcomes! There are 146,107,962 possible outcomes!

      There you go!

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: September 1, 2007, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

        Only one combination can win.

        A ticket may have five lines of numbers representing five combinations on it, but only one of them can be the winner.

        Every line of numbers ( in the game discussed) has odds of 146,107,962:1.

        No matter how many lines (sets) of numbers are played, each set is up against the same odds.

        $100 worth of tickets reduces the combinations not covered by 100, $1,000 worth of different sets of numbers reduces the combinations left by 1,000.

        There was no "magic bullet" in the JFK assasination and there's no "magic dollar" in lotto. 

        No matter what the  Pick 6 or 5 + 1 game or the matrix, each dollar = one combination covered, of millions.

        Anyone who tells you anything else will also tell you what a great time they had at the 1994 World Series. Caution.

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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          Posted: September 1, 2007, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

          I think you are starting to understand.  You are correct in the mechanics of reducing the fraction.

          But like you say you are converting it. The draw is all inclusive, it is a singular event, by having 5 tickets doesn't reduce the size of the possibilities by five, because you would have to be able to apply the 5 tickets simultaneously to five reduced sets of possible outcomes, that is not what happens.  You are trying to MATCH one of the 146,107,962 to one of your 5.  Look at it like this, it is as if you were trying to match each one of your 5 combos to five separate draws instantaneously when you convert and say 1/29,221,592.4 .

          Except it happens more like this expressed with fractions when a game is played, this is what happens:

          your first set is 1 / 146,107,962

          your second is 1 / 146,107,962 -1

          your third is 1 / 146,107,962 -2

          your fourth is 1 / 146,107,962 -3

          your fifth is 1 / 146,107,962 -4

          This happens instantaneously!

          You see each of the five outcomes you chose are almost equal, in the possibility of matching one of the 146,107,962 possible outcomes, you have only reduced the outcome by five of the 146,107,962 outcomes. When you play five lines: In fractions it looks like this 1/146,107,958 not 1/29,221,592 it is a very different number.

          If someone has bought 5 tickets for a single drawing, they have a 1 in 29,221,592.4 chance of winning the jackpot. I know I'm right. I'm not interested in looking at it any differently than that.

          Gonna win.Big Smile

            jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
            Harbinger
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            Posted: September 2, 2007, 12:08 am - IP Logged

            Only one combination can win.

            A ticket may have five lines of numbers representing five combinations on it, but only one of them can be the winner.

            Every line of numbers ( in the game discussed) has odds of 146,107,962:1.

            No matter how many lines (sets) of numbers are played, each set is up against the same odds.

            $100 worth of tickets reduces the combinations not covered by 100, $1,000 worth of different sets of numbers reduces the combinations left by 1,000.

            There was no "magic bullet" in the JFK assasination and there's no "magic dollar" in lotto. 

            No matter what the  Pick 6 or 5 + 1 game or the matrix, each dollar = one combination covered, of millions.

            Anyone who tells you anything else will also tell you what a great time they had at the 1994 World Series. Caution.

            CT, that is correct. That is stating the obvious. Only one combination can win the jackpot.

            But the discussion is not about the obvious.

            It is about a fallacy that is put forth about chances. Playing more than 1 ticket increases your odds two-fold for each additional ticket played. This is untrue,  unless the number of tickets played starts approaching the number of possible combos your chances remain the same. You and I agree on this.

            Telling someone that they have somehow changed their odds from 1 in 146M to 1 in 29M by buying 5 tickets is outright misleading, that is all. 

              Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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              Posted: September 2, 2007, 12:15 am - IP Logged

              CT, that is correct. That is stating the obvious. Only one combination can win the jackpot.

              But the discussion is not about the obvious.

              It is about a fallacy that is put forth about chances. Playing more than 1 ticket increases your odds two-fold for each additional ticket played. This is untrue,  unless the number of tickets played starts approaching the number of possible combos your chances remain the same. You and I agree on this.

              Telling someone that they have somehow changed their odds from 1 in 146M to 1 in 29M by buying 5 tickets is outright misleading, that is all. 

              It's not misleading! It's math! Learn how to convert fractions!

              Gonna win.Big Smile

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                Posted: September 2, 2007, 12:59 am - IP Logged

                It's not misleading! It's math! Learn how to convert fractions!

                Oy vey, here we go.

                We're not talking 'fractions', we're talking one winning set of numbers out of 146,107,962.

                Only one wins.

                No matter how many you play, each ticket, each set of your numbers can only do this:

                1 / 146, 107, 962nd of all combinations.

                That's the only fraction involved here, and each and every one of your dollars, no matter how many of them you are willing to spend, each and every one, one by one, can only be involved with that fraction. There's no power of 10 here, no binary , no halving or anything else.

                When you think otherwise, the only thing being reduced to fractions is your bankroll.

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  Raven62's avatar - binary
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                  Posted: September 2, 2007, 2:27 am - IP Logged

                  If I buy a 2nd ticket my chance of Winnng is:
                  1 in 146,107,961 (146,107,960 remaining)

                  If I buy a 3rd ticket my chance of Winnng is:
                  1 in 146,107,960 (146,107,959 remaining)

                  If I buy a 4th ticket my chance of Winnng is:
                  1 in 146,107,959 (146,107,958 remaining)

                  If I buy a 5th ticket my chance of Winnng is:
                  1 in 146,107,958 (146,107,957 remaining)

                  Those are incorrect because you also have to take into consideration the previous ones that you have purchased. If you have 5 tickets, your odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 29,221,592.4. 

                  Put what ever spin you want on it: The fact still remains the odds of the game didn't change by purchasing more tickets.

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86508/203595

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86508/204214

                  A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                    Wandering Aimlessly
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                    Posted: September 2, 2007, 2:48 am - IP Logged

                    There was no "magic bullet" in the JFK assasination and there's no "magic dollar" in lotto. 

                     

                    Coin Toss, didn't you see the X-Files episode that explained the whole JFK assassination?  Eek

                    Seriously, I think this discussion could go on forever.  I was going to quote Jarasan's post on the first page since I think he explains it very well as do you.  It really doesn't matter what people say the numbers are and if 1 in 29M is the same as 5 in 146M, etc.  Buying 5 tickets does little to increase the odds.  Tonight (Saturday) I was at Publix and bought my 4 tickets.  I decided to buy a QP too. The man behind me bought 10 Fantasy 5 tickets and 10 Lotto tickets, all QPs.  When I was walking away from the counter I could hear him buying some scratch tickets too.  So I would agree with anyone that this man has a much better chance at winning the lottery than I do.  It goes back to that old saying that money makes money.  The good news is that it's very true that purchasing just one ticket can and has won somebody a large jackpot, because it's all luck. 

                    How's that for diplomacy?  Smiley

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                      Posted: September 2, 2007, 11:49 am - IP Logged

                      Thanks Todd for being the only person in this thread to answer my question.

                       

                      Why argue about chances of winning.  Don't we all know that it's a very slim chance?  

                        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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                        Posted: September 2, 2007, 12:38 pm - IP Logged

                        Oy vey, here we go.

                        We're not talking 'fractions', we're talking one winning set of numbers out of 146,107,962.

                        Only one wins.

                        No matter how many you play, each ticket, each set of your numbers can only do this:

                        1 / 146, 107, 962nd of all combinations.

                        That's the only fraction involved here, and each and every one of your dollars, no matter how many of them you are willing to spend, each and every one, one by one, can only be involved with that fraction. There's no power of 10 here, no binary , no halving or anything else.

                        When you think otherwise, the only thing being reduced to fractions is your bankroll.

                        It IS fractions! If you have 1 ticket, your chances of winning are 1 in 146,107,962. If you have 5 tickets, your chances of winning are 1 in 29,221,592.4, which is the same as 5 in 146,107,962! You have to count every ticket you bought! You own ALL 5 tickets! Why the hell did you all start a debate about this? All I'm doing is converting a fraction. Why do you care if I'm converting it? You do it your way, and I'll do it my way. It's the same number and it's correct! All this over something so small. If you don't think it's correct, then I recommend doing some reading on fractions. You can start here:

                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraction_%28mathematics%29

                        You people need to understand that every little bit counts no matter how big of a number you're talking about. If you buy an extra ticket, it might be just another shot out of the millions and millions of possibilites there are, but it counts!

                        Gonna win.Big Smile

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: September 2, 2007, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

                          What debate? I spotted erroneous information- five tickets taking approx. 146 million to one odds to approx. 29 million to one odds - going by that, with a small bankroll you could actually put the odds in your favor!

                          Why, how do the lottereis stay in business offering those kind of games?

                          Fractionalize all you want, every set of numbers is up against the same max odds- regardless of how many sets of numbers played. The only variable is how much each person is willing to spend. 

                          Have a lucky day. 

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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                            Posted: September 2, 2007, 1:05 pm - IP Logged

                            What debate? I spotted erroneous information- five tickets taking approx. 146 million to one odds to approx. 29 million to one odds - going by that, with a small bankroll you could actually put the odds in your favor!

                            Why, how do the lottereis stay in business offering those kind of games?

                            Fractionalize all you want, every set of numbers is up against the same max odds- regardless of how many sets of numbers played. The only variable is how much each person is willing to spend. 

                            Have a lucky day. 

                            So basically your saying I'm wrong when I say that if a person has bought 5 tickets, their odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 29,221,592.4? If that's what your saying then you need to go back to grade school.

                            Gonna win.Big Smile

                              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                              Posted: September 2, 2007, 2:17 pm - IP Logged

                              So basically your saying I'm wrong when I say that if a person has bought 5 tickets, their odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 29,221,592.4? If that's what your saying then you need to go back to grade school.

                              I do? What you are doing either knowingly or unknowingly trying to convince people that if 1 ticket is 146 million to one, and 5 tickets are 29 million to one, all you have to do is play 5 tickets 13 more times and the odds are 0!

                              They may work in "Once upon a time" stories where there is no real money involved, but the reality is whether you buy one ticket or 1,000 tickets each ticket is up against 146 million to one odds (Powerball game). It's as simple as that.

                              What obvously isn't simple is convincing people that's the way it has to be as long as the game is set up with one, and only one, set of winning numbers.

                              Besides THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the stage play?

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.