Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1958 Posts Offline

Posted: September 6, 2007, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 6, 2007

JAG331

"Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

I realize that. I also realize that of all tickets sold are considered as belonging to one player as a whole then the that 'player's chances have been "fractionalized" by oh, 137,000,000 or so (last Mega Millions frenzy). And yet, like Isaid before, out of 104 drawings a year 12 to 15 produce a jackpot winner (Powerball and Mega Millions website's FAQ's).

If that was inded the case, the lottery would havde to have people hanging out on the streets handing out money to people - yeah, right.

I'll tell al you guys that believe this stuff this: Show is something. Hit a jackpot. Then talk. One ounce of did beats two tons of gonna.

Til then, buono fortuna.

Um, anyone here who believes this "stuff" doesn't have to win a jackpot to talk. Fractions is something that is taught in elementary school. It's not magic Coin Toss. It's real, logical, correct math.

Zeta Reticuli Star System United States Member #30470 January 17, 2006 10391 Posts Offline

Posted: September 6, 2007, 11:50 pm - IP Logged

And drawing by drawing, as people were reducing the odds by fractions, the jackpot went form the start point of $12,000,000 to $330,000,000 before it got hit.

One word: Luck.

Come to think of it, there's never been a winner yet at a press conference talk about fractions or anyhting similar.

Football Jersey numbers (the lady in Oklahoma, PB, here in the news - leser prize), etc.....but for all these type discusione here, has a winner ever stood up ther at a press conference and mentioned anything even close?

Good luck.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

New Jersey United States Member #1 May 31, 2000 23351 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 12:38 am - IP Logged

Guru, I feel your pain.

I can hear your head banging onto your desk from here, but the silver lining is that you've added a variety of nice odds explanations to the knowledge base. Thanks!

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7344 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 2:07 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 6, 2007

JAG331

"Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

I realize that. I also realize that of all tickets sold are considered as belonging to one player as a whole then the that 'player's chances have been "fractionalized" by oh, 137,000,000 or so (last Mega Millions frenzy). And yet, like Isaid before, out of 104 drawings a year 12 to 15 produce a jackpot winner (Powerball and Mega Millions website's FAQ's).

If that was inded the case, the lottery would havde to have people hanging out on the streets handing out money to people - yeah, right.

I'll tell al you guys that believe this stuff this: Show is something. Hit a jackpot. Then talk. One ounce of did beats two tons of gonna.

Til then, buono fortuna.

You once used a craps analogy to explain odds.

We know there are 6 ways to roll a seven and 5 to roll a six so the odds are 6 to 5; in other words losing combinations to winning combinations (unless you're playing the "don't"). If you also have a bet on the eight the odds are 6 to 5 on that bet too, but if you make both bets, there still 6 ways you can lose but there are now 10 ways you can win. If you have bets on the other 4 numbers you have another 14 ways to win. With 24 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose is why people make Place Bets and Buy Bets after the point is established, but casinos maintain their edge by not paying off Place Bets and Buy Bets in true odds.

On any one roll of the dice there are 36 possible outcomes and 6 of them are seven and by dividing 36 by 6, you get odds of 6 to 1. This is exactly what Guru and others are doing.

If you buy 42 Powerball tickets with each of the 42 red Powerball numbers the odds are 3,478,761 to 1 because that is exactly how many white Powerball combinations there are. Guru is asking why the odds would be different by getting any old 42 quick picks.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3502 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 10:16 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 6, 2007

KYFloyd

"Now suppose you bought 42 PB tickets, each with the same 5 regular balls and a different power ball. Since there are 42 power balls and you've played all of them you will match the powerball. Your chances of matching all 5 regular balls is still 1 in 3,478,761, isn't it? 146,107,962/3,478,761 is 42, so your 42 tickets makes you 42 times as likely to win as if you had bought only 1 ticket...."

You're assuming at least one of those 5 regular balls is gong to be drawn. There's no such thing as a lock, as has been said here. If none of those 5 balls are drawn you've put up $42 for a guaranteed"win" of $3.

"But by covering all the Powerballs, I've won $3!"

"Naw Willard, you lost $39"

"Dang, I just can't believe none of those five numbers hit."

"The lottery people can."

If you consider every ticket sold as being held by a person, let's say on any given draw it's Powerball (or Mega Miillions) vs The Player, lumping all sales into one entity called The Player), then by the theories bbeing presented in this thread, from the magic and wonders of fractionalizing to the word play of "chances" and "probabilities" THERE SHOULD BE A JACKPOT WINNER EVERY DRAW.

But there isn't, and in a legitimate operation there never will be. So as long as the reality is out of 104 draws a year there are 12 to 15 times that the top jackpot is paid out I'm going to consider all these arguments right up there with the physics professor who insisted a curve ball doesn't curve. It's an optical illusion of the seams spinning the ball travels forward, you see. But then an alumni of the school was pitching in the majors and came back to visit. The professor was invited to bat against him. As the ball was heading for his head and he dove into the dirt, the catcher and umpire both snickered as the ump called STEEEERRRIKE!

"Let me tell you somehting kid, there's nobody easier, and more enjoyable to beat, than a guy with a degree in probabilities that comes up to the game with a pencil and a notebook. We'd fly them here if they asked us to."

-Las Vegas Casino Boss

The only thing I'm assuming is that some of the people who misunderstand the probability of winning with multiple tickets are capable of learning if they're given a simple explanation. I've offered dozens of explanations in the past, but you seem to be unable to avoid going off on some irrelevant tangent, as you've done here. I've clearly shown that by buying 42 tickets instead of one ticket you will be 42 times as likely to win. That's all that Guru, others, and I have been saying: the chances of winning are directly proportional to how many combinations you have. Guru is also right that it's the same simple concept that is taught in elementary school. For some reason as soon as we use numbers bigger than 1/2 or 1/4, and tell you there are prizes you can't seem to follow the simple math without going off on a tangent. Until you can understand that the probability of winning or losing is a simple math problem that has nothing to do with the prizes for winning there's little chance that you'll ever learn.

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5587 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 3:19 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on September 6, 2007

"I have seen people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, "

Anyone who thinks that having 1000 out of 145 or 176 million combinations gives them a lock on winning the jackpot is a moron, but that doesn't mean that the math doesn't work the way Guru has explained it.

You post about sets is clueless about how the odds really work, but the basic idea of sets can be used to offer a clue to those who are smart enough. Lets imagine a game with odds of 1 in 100 million. Suppose you made 10 sets, each with 10 million of the possible combinations. If I have 1 ticket it will only belong to one set, so I can't possibly win unless the winning combination happens to be in that set. If the ticket is in that set I will have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning, because that's how many choices there are in each set. Now let's suppose that I buy 10 tickets, and each ticket matches a combination in a different set. Since I have a ticket for each of the 10 sets I will have one ticket that belongs to the set with the winning combination. Since there are 10 million combinations in the set my ticket from that set will have a 1 in 10 million chance of matching the winning combination. That means that by buying 10 tickets in a game with 1 in 100 million odds I have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning. QED.

Hey KY Floyd, thanks for straightening that out for me, I may be clueless but you are classless. This subject is so worn out, that we needed the jelly king to come in, add some jelly, and finally show us the light. Just about everything you write throws insults, you are a jerk, and ODDS are you have no friends.

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5587 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 9:47 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 6, 2007

JAG331

"Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

I realize that. I also realize that of all tickets sold are considered as belonging to one player as a whole then the that 'player's chances have been "fractionalized" by oh, 137,000,000 or so (last Mega Millions frenzy). And yet, like Isaid before, out of 104 drawings a year 12 to 15 produce a jackpot winner (Powerball and Mega Millions website's FAQ's).

If that was inded the case, the lottery would havde to have people hanging out on the streets handing out money to people - yeah, right.

I'll tell al you guys that believe this stuff this: Show is something. Hit a jackpot. Then talk. One ounce of did beats two tons of gonna.

Til then, buono fortuna.

CT, I agree with you.

"Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

How can you make combinations disappear if they don't exist yet?

How do you know what combinations you are eliminating by each additional ticket you are buying?

Do you feel more confident to win the jackpot prize if you buy 625 instead of 315 combos?

If 1 of your combos hits the top tier jackpot prize, how many tickets does one present to collect?

If you played 1000 combos would you QPick or manual pick.

What would be the best 10000 manual combo sets to cover on Mega Millions?

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1958 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on September 7, 2007

CT, I agree with you.

"Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

How can you make combinations disappear if they don't exist yet?

How do you know what combinations you are eliminating by each additional ticket you are buying?

Do you feel more confident to win the jackpot prize if you buy 625 instead of 315 combos?

If 1 of your combos hits the top tier jackpot prize, how many tickets does one present to collect?

If you played 1000 combos would you QPick or manual pick.

What would be the best 10000 manual combo sets to cover on Mega Millions?

My responses to your questions in the order you asked them:

1. I think you pulled that question out of your butt. 146,107,962 combinations exist. You can't make a combination disappear, but for each ticket you buy, that's one more chance to win the jackpot.

2. Um, this should be obvious. You eliminate the combinations you buy. Don't confuse eliminate with disappear(like YOU probably would). When I say eliminate, I mean eliminate from the sets of numbers you no longer need in order to win the jackpot.

3. Well if I was actually crazy enough to spend $625 on tickets, much less $315 tickets, then yes, I would feel more confident of winning the jackpot because it's odds at work. 625 is more than 315.

4. Do you really need to ask this question? You present the ONE winning ticket that has the winning combination. I think I know why you don't understand fractions now.

5. Well, since I have my own system of choosing numbers, I'd probably mix it up. I know I would play at least $500 on self picks, but that's just me.

6. There is no best sets to play. It's a random game. Either you win or you don't.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3502 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 10:44 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on September 7, 2007

Hey KY Floyd, thanks for straightening that out for me, I may be clueless but you are classless. This subject is so worn out, that we needed the jelly king to come in, add some jelly, and finally show us the light. Just about everything you write throws insults, you are a jerk, and ODDS are you have no friends.

P.S. You don't know everything.

Well, of course I don't know everything. I limit my posts to things I do know about, and this is one of them. Like Guru, I learned fractions in elementary school, and despite the problems that some posters have with the concept, that's all there is to it. A lot of people seem to grasp the idea that 10 tickets gives you a 10 in 146 million chance, but some just can't follow along when it's simplified to 1 in 14.6 million.

If you feel insulted that's certainly your choice, but I said your post was clueless, not that you're clueless. Your posts make it obvious that you don't understand how it works, and like it or not, that's a fact.

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1958 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on September 7, 2007

Well, of course I don't know everything. I limit my posts to things I do know about, and this is one of them. Like Guru, I learned fractions in elementary school, and despite the problems that some posters have with the concept, that's all there is to it. A lot of people seem to grasp the idea that 10 tickets gives you a 10 in 146 million chance, but some just can't follow along when it's simplified to 1 in 14.6 million.

If you feel insulted that's certainly your choice, but I said your post was clueless, not that you're clueless. Your posts make it obvious that you don't understand how it works, and like it or not, that's a fact.

Hopefully, this will make it a little easier for them to understand:

1/4

4/16

As you can see, to express 4/16 as 1/x, in this case 1/4, you divide both the numerator and denominator by 4. 4/4 = 1, 16/4 = 4. This applies to fractions of ALL sizes. There is no point where fractions can no longer be used. Just because the odds for 1 ticket is 1 in 146,107,962, doesn't mean fractions don't apply. 5/146,107,962 = 1/29,221,592.4.

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5587 Posts Offline

Posted: September 7, 2007, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Guru101 on September 7, 2007

My responses to your questions in the order you asked them:

1. I think you pulled that question out of your butt. 146,107,962 combinations exist. You can't make a combination disappear, but for each ticket you buy, that's one more chance to win the jackpot.

2. Um, this should be obvious. You eliminate the combinations you buy. Don't confuse eliminate with disappear(like YOU probably would). When I say eliminate, I mean eliminate from the sets of numbers you no longer need in order to win the jackpot.

3. Well if I was actually crazy enough to spend $625 on tickets, much less $315 tickets, then yes, I would feel more confident of winning the jackpot because it's odds at work. 625 is more than 315.

4. Do you really need to ask this question? You present the ONE winning ticket that has the winning combination. I think I know why you don't understand fractions now.

5. Well, since I have my own system of choosing numbers, I'd probably mix it up. I know I would play at least $500 on self picks, but that's just me.

6. There is no best sets to play. It's a random game. Either you win or you don't.

My responses to your answers, thanks for the answers.

Question #1 : KY was a help. Nothing exists before it exists. My guru told me this. He is a bit metaphysical.

Was Jimmy Hoffa eliminated or did he just disappear? Or vice-versa? Did he exist?

Where is the list of combos?

For 146,107,962 combos at 400 combos per page is 365,270 pages @ .2mm/sheet double-sided = 5000 sheets per meter (stacked) = 73 meter thick list (difficult to hide). With really small print you could shorten that down.

Question #2 : You say eliminate the sets you no longer need? So that would mean 146,107, 962 - X (combinations)? 1/ 146,107,962 - X. Familiar?

Question #3 : Playing more than a few hundred combos (that exist before the draw) is crazy if your odds are so much better? Of course, 1/233772.7 is just as crazy as 1/463839.8 (fractions).

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5587 Posts Offline

Posted: September 8, 2007, 12:18 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on September 7, 2007

Well, of course I don't know everything. I limit my posts to things I do know about, and this is one of them. Like Guru, I learned fractions in elementary school, and despite the problems that some posters have with the concept, that's all there is to it. A lot of people seem to grasp the idea that 10 tickets gives you a 10 in 146 million chance, but some just can't follow along when it's simplified to 1 in 14.6 million.

If you feel insulted that's certainly your choice, but I said your post was clueless, not that you're clueless. Your posts make it obvious that you don't understand how it works, and like it or not, that's a fact.

The discussion is not about math, it is about reasonable expectations. I am not saying the math is wrong or your perception of the what the odds are, is wrong.

Your elementary school math teachers should be proud you, pie charts, fractions and all.

The numbers are enormous, I believe the odds are irrelevant in the consideration of a direct hit on top tier prize. The odds only become relevant and significant when the number of tickets played by any one player approaches the number of possible combinations, that is all.

KY says:

"Your posts make it obvious that you don't understand how it works, and like it or not, that's a fact.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3502 Posts Offline

Posted: September 8, 2007, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on September 8, 2007

The discussion is not about math, it is about reasonable expectations. I am not saying the math is wrong or your perception of the what the odds are, is wrong.

Your elementary school math teachers should be proud you, pie charts, fractions and all.

The numbers are enormous, I believe the odds are irrelevant in the consideration of a direct hit on top tier prize. The odds only become relevant and significant when the number of tickets played by any one player approaches the number of possible combinations, that is all.

KY says:

"Your posts make it obvious that you don't understand how it works, and like it or not, that's a fact.

You are a naturally insulting, that is a gift.

The discussion is definitely, and clearly, about math. Go back and look at how it started. If it isn't about math why was your first contribution about set theory?

" It is a mistake to say you double your chances by buying 2 tickets, because what you are doing is falling into a math trap.

You see when you fractionalize by half, you are now saying there are now TWO distinct sets of possible outcomes per draw."

Both of those statements are wrong.

1. Nobody is faling into a math trap. Those of us who understand how it works are simply using the proper math to determine the chances of winning for any number of tickets (by which we really mean distinct combinations) that you might have. Buying two tickets makes you twice as likely to win as buying one ticket. Buying 10 tickets makes you ten times as likely to win as buying one ticket. It's a simple direct relationship.

2. As near as I can tell nobody but you has suggested anything about two possible outcomes. The last time I checked PB had about 146 million possible outcomes and MM has nearly 176 million.

"It is 150M to 1 ONCE, not 75M to 1, twice."

Sorry, but you're wrong again. It's 146 million to one as many times as you have combinations. If your first combination doesn't match the winning combination you have another chance for every ticket you have. If you have two tickets you'll win if either of those combinations is drawn. If you have 10 combinations you will win if any of the ten are drawn. One ticket means there is only one combination that will result in winning, and ten tickets means there are ten times as many combinations that will result in winning. That's ten times as likely with ten times as many tickets.

"It is more of a set theory perspective than say: odds or fractions: it is much simpler."

Are you suggesting that your chances of winning the lottery isn't about odds? I don't know about you, but fractions started in 2nd grade math when i was in school. The numbers are bigger, but that's about as simple as it gets. Really.