Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by pacattack05 on September 1, 2007

WOW, you beat me to the punch.

I agree, I never understood that way of thinking. I've also read other posts about this subject and I can't see how that is possible.

If the odds are 1 in 10 and I buy one ticket, I now have a 1 in 9 chance of winning. Does some strange phenomenon occur when the odds are increased to millions?...LOL

No math genius here either, but I guess common sense might have exceptions in math...lol

If the odds are 1 in 10 and I buy one ticket, I now have a 1 in 9 chance of winning.

See, that is something that is incorrect. If you have 1 ticket and the odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 10, then YOUR odds are 1 in 10, not 1 in 9. If somebody else has bought 2 tickets, THEIR odds of winning would be 2/10 or 1/5. Do you see how I'm doing this now? I'm just converting the odds so that the numerator is 1. That's all.Whether it's 10 or 146,107,962, if you want to change the numerator or denominator of a fraction, then you have to change the other one as well. If you have 5 tickets and you want to look at your odds as being 5 in 146,107,512, then that's ok, but at the same time you cannot tell someone they are wrong if they have 5 tickets as well and are looking at their odds as being 1 in 29,221,502.4 because mathematically it's correct.

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 2:36 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 2, 2007

I do? What you are doing either knowingly or unknowingly trying to convince people that if 1 ticket is 146 million to one, and 5 tickets are 29 million to one, all you have to do is play 5 tickets 13 more times and the odds are 0!

They may work in "Once upon a time" stories where there is no real money involved, but the reality is whether you buy one ticket or 1,000 tickets each ticket is up against 146 million to one odds (Powerball game). It's as simple as that.

What obvously isn't simple is convincing people that's the way it has to be as long as the game is set up with one, and only one, set of winning numbers.

Besides THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the stage play?

Each SINGLE ticket has a 1 in 146,107,512 chance of being the jackpot winner, but I'm talking about a SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot. If a person buys 5 tickets, they own ALL 5 tickets. Your statement about buying 5 tickets 13 more times and winning is wrong.

A SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot based off the number of tickets that person has bought:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,512

2 tickets = 2 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 73,053,756

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

10 tickets = 10 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 14,610,751.2

25 tickets = 25 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 5,844,300.48

25,000 tickets = 25,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 5,844.30048

1,000,000 tickets = 1,000,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 146.107512(<-Obvious)

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious)

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19831 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 3:03 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Guru101 on September 2, 2007

Each SINGLE ticket has a 1 in 146,107,512 chance of being the jackpot winner, but I'm talking about a SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot. If a person buys 5 tickets, they own ALL 5 tickets. Your statement about buying 5 tickets 13 more times and winning is wrong.

A SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot based off the number of tickets that person has bought:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,512

2 tickets = 2 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 73,053,756

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

10 tickets = 10 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 14,610,751.2

25 tickets = 25 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 5,844,300.48

25,000 tickets = 25,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 5,844.30048

1,000,000 tickets = 1,000,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 146.107512(<-Obvious)

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious)

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious)*Correction! Not so obvious when you're buying more than 100 tickets *randomly. You are assuming there are no duplications and duplications among randomly picked numbers naturally occur. In pick3 some duplication can occur several times before some combinations come up even once.

Duplications among randomly picked combinations have occurred after less than ~5% of the possible combinations have been picked according to data I have that followed games that ran 5 years or longer. Ohio Buckeye5 (5/39) ran almost eleven years and had 2700 drawings with five duplication during its run.

Unless you pick each combination purposely, your real odds of winning is likely to be less than 1 per ticket bought when you start buying more than 100 tickets *randomly.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on September 2, 2007

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious)*Correction! Not so obvious when you're buying more than 100 tickets *randomly. You are assuming there are no duplications and duplications among randomly picked numbers naturally occur. In pick3 some duplication can occur several times before some combinations come up even once.

Duplications among randomly picked combinations have occurred after less than ~5% of the possible combinations have been picked according to data I have that followed games that ran 5 years or longer. Ohio Buckeye5 (5/39) ran almost eleven years and had 2700 drawings with five duplication during its run.

Unless you pick each combination purposely, your real odds of winning is likely to be less than 1 per ticket bought when you start buying more than 100 tickets *randomly.

DUH!!!!!! I'm talking about NO duplicates! You should have assumed that I was because that's what's been assumed this whole discussion!

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19831 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Guru101 on September 2, 2007

DUH!!!!!! I'm talking about NO duplicates! You should have assumed that I was because that's what's been assumed this whole discussion!

DUH!!!!!! I thought the conversation was about buying tickets not combinations. Simply going up to a clerk and asking for $100 worth of lottery tickets doesn't guarantee you will have 100 different combinations (even if you request no duplications). While it's highly unlikely that you would, to be sure you would have to fill out $100 worth of play slips.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 4:57 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on September 2, 2007

DUH!!!!!! I thought the conversation was about buying tickets not combinations. Simply going up to a clerk and asking for $100 worth of lottery tickets doesn't guarantee you will have 100 different combinations (even if you request no duplications). While it's highly unlikely that you would, to be sure you would have to fill out $100 worth of play slips.

Dude, you're pointing out the obvious. I KNOW there could be duplicates. The numbers I used in my example were for mathematical demonstration purposes only. If someone is telling me 5 in 146,107,512(no duplicates) is not the same as 1 in 29,221,502.4, then they're basically saying that 2 in 10 is not the same as 1 in 5, and if that's what they're saying then they obviously don't know what they're talking about.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19831 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Guru101 on September 2, 2007

Dude, you're pointing out the obvious. I KNOW there could be duplicates. The numbers I used in my example were for mathematical demonstration purposes only. If someone is telling me 5 in 146,107,512(no duplicates) is not the same as 1 in 29,221,502.4, then they're basically saying that 2 in 10 is not the same as 1 in 5, and if that's what they're saying then they obviously don't know what they're talking about.

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on September 2, 2007

Guru101 is correct. 'Nuff said.

I'm glad to see there are a few people who understand. A lot of people seem to be thinking I'm getting rid of combinations, but I'm not. There are still 146,107,512 possibilites, but to EXPRESS the odds as 1/x you have to divide both the numerator and denominator by the same number. So when you say 2/10 is the same as 1/5, you're dividing both the 2 by 2, which is 1, and the 10 by 2, which is 5. It's not getting rid of combinations, it's just EXPRESSING the fraction in a different way.

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 2, 2007, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 2, 2007

So if we take the 146 / 5 (to make the numbers simple)

and do the /5 13 more times the odds are zero according to you guys. so why has nobody here won it then, that being the case?

$70 , reduce the odds to zero, and you have a lock.

146/5 = 29.2

so

29.2 /5 = 5.84 (five more tickets), etc...

and so on until you have done this 14 times and "the odds are zero".

I'm still not buying it.

Sounds very much like something Custer said about his strategy for going into The Little Big Horn.

Good luck you guys.

You're mistaken. You see, the odds of someone winning with 5 tickets is 5 times more likely to occur than someone who has 1 ticket. That's why 146,107,962 was divided by 5. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not have the same effect. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not divide that person's odds by 5, it divides it by 2, in effect doubling the persons chances of winning the jackpot.

No duplicates:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

10 tickets = 10 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 14,610,751.2

As you can see, going from 1 ticket to 5 tickets increases your odds by 5 because you have 5 TIMES more tickets, but going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets only doubles it because you have 2 TIMES more tickets.For $70 worth of tickets:

70 tickets = 70 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 2,087,256.6

NOTE: I made an oopsie in my previous posts as typing 146,107,962 as 146,107,512. Sorry about that. Got too many numbers running through my head. 146,107,962 is the correct one.

Zeta Reticuli Star System United States Member #30470 January 17, 2006 10354 Posts Offline

Posted: September 3, 2007, 10:37 am - IP Logged

Guru101

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become "zero". That's the flaw in it.

14 x $5 = $70, that's where the 70 came from.

You don't realize you're promoting the idea that you could take the odds down to nothing with $70.

That's why the 5 tickets reducing them by 117 million (146 - 29) is flawed.

If it was purely a math problem, yeah- but in math problems there are no prizes or jackpots, only solutions.

The way the lotto operates is that each set of numbers is up against all the odds, the total odds againt hitting a jackpost. Otherwise it wouldn't be a lotto but a giveaway.

The odds against hitting the jackpost are always the same regardless of how many tickets held. Every lottery player that doesn;t realize that should have it tattooed somewhere

The amount of monsy each person is willing to risk to buy any number of tickets is the only vatiable here.

If the purchase of 5 tickets could reduce the jackpot odds by 117 million, there would be no lottery being offered to play.

Anything else is tripe peddled by hucksters, system sellers, and touts.

Perhaps it is these kind of "disinformation" threads that are attracting these people here who join and in their first post ask, "Ok, how do I win?

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

Indiana United States Member #48725 January 7, 2007 1954 Posts Offline

Posted: September 3, 2007, 11:35 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on September 3, 2007

Guru101

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become "zero". That's the flaw in it.

14 x $5 = $70, that's where the 70 came from.

You don't realize you're promoting the idea that you could take the odds down to nothing with $70.

That's why the 5 tickets reducing them by 117 million (146 - 29) is flawed.

If it was purely a math problem, yeah- but in math problems there are no prizes or jackpots, only solutions.

The way the lotto operates is that each set of numbers is up against all the odds, the total odds againt hitting a jackpost. Otherwise it wouldn't be a lotto but a giveaway.

The odds against hitting the jackpost are always the same regardless of how many tickets held. Every lottery player that doesn;t realize that should have it tattooed somewhere

The amount of monsy each person is willing to risk to buy any number of tickets is the only vatiable here.

If the purchase of 5 tickets could reduce the jackpot odds by 117 million, there would be no lottery being offered to play.

Anything else is tripe peddled by hucksters, system sellers, and touts.

Perhaps it is these kind of "disinformation" threads that are attracting these people here who join and in their first post ask, "Ok, how do I win?

Dude, I fully explained it in my last post, in yet you still don't get it. I'm not eliminating millions of combinations. I'm EXPRESSING the odds as 1/x where x is 146,107,962 divided by the number of tickets purchased by a single person. Just because each SINGLE TICKET has a 1 in 146,107,692 chance of hitting the jackpot, doesn't mean that every SINGLE PERSON has the same odds. 1 person might have 1 ticket, and another person might have 5 tickets. That's why the odds of winning the jackpot are divided by 5 for the person with 5 tickets. 5 is 5 times more than 1. Plus, I already told you that you were mistaken about playing $70 worth of tickets. It doesn't divide by 5 every time you purchase 5 tickets. The reason why the odds are divided by 5 by buying 5 tickets is because 5 is 5 times more than 1. However, the person who has 5 tickets only has 5 out of the 146,107,962 combinations. You need to learn how to convert fractions.

70 tickets = 70 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 2,087,256.6

Also, you're saying that I'm giving out disinformation, but the information is correct. Also, look at this statement:

The odds against hitting the jackpost are always the same regardless of how many tickets held.

That is completely wrong. The odds of the game remain constant for a SINGLE ticket, but for each ticket a SINGLE PERSON buys, their odds are increased. If person A has 1 ticket, and person B has 5 tickets, person B has a better chance of winning the jackpot, plain and simple.