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A dollar and a dream true for PB and MM?

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Perfect Timing.

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Harbinger
D.C./MD.
United States
Member #44103
July 30, 2006
5583 Posts
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Posted: September 9, 2007, 12:39 am - IP Logged

The discussion is definitely, and clearly, about math. Go back and look at how it started. If it isn't about math why was your first contribution about set theory?

" It is a mistake to say you double your chances by buying 2 tickets, because what you are doing is falling into a math trap.

   You see when you fractionalize by half, you are now saying there are now TWO distinct sets of possible outcomes per draw."

 Both of those statements are wrong.

 1. Nobody is faling into a math trap. Those of us who understand how it works are simply using the proper math to determine the chances of winning for any number of tickets (by which we really mean distinct combinations) that you might have. Buying two tickets makes you twice as likely to win as buying one ticket. Buying 10 tickets makes you ten times as likely to win as buying one ticket. It's a simple direct relationship.

 2. As near as I can tell nobody but you has suggested anything about two possible outcomes. The last time I checked PB had about 146 million possible outcomes and MM has nearly 176 million.

 "It is 150M  to 1 ONCE,  not  75M to 1, twice.

 Sorry, but you're wrong again.  It's 146 million to one as many times as you have combinations. If your first combination doesn't match the winning combination you have another chance for every ticket you have. If you have two tickets you'll win if either of those combinations is drawn. If you have 10 combinations you will win if any of the ten are drawn. One ticket means there is only one combination that will result in winning, and ten tickets means there are ten times as many combinations that will result in winning. That's ten times as likely with ten times as many tickets.

 "It is more of a set theory perspective than say: odds or fractions: it is much simpler."

 Are you suggesting that your chances of winning the lottery isn't about odds? I don't know about you, but fractions started in 2nd grade math when i was in school. The numbers are bigger, but that's about as simple as it gets. Really.

I guess I got you thinking. Keep on convincing yourself it is second grade math and I am wrong, it's healthy for the brain.I remember my second grade teacher, Sister Carmen, but what math lessons she taught exactly, is forgotten.  On the other hand I remember her kindness, lovely smile, and dedication to us kids.I still am in touch with some of those 2nd. grade classmates.In college I remember the times of enlightment and learning but not all the faces of my classmates or profs., just a couple of them.Quantifying and counting odds with fractions as some do, is fine, whatever works for you. Second grade math rocks!Tommorrow is the opener and odds are 1/1 I will be there, since I have 2/87,000 tickets and 1/16,000 parking passes.

We will be tailgating and then battling the air breathing fish people.

 

 Are you a bad fish? I am a bad fish too.         But of course.

 

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    Posted: September 9, 2007, 2:14 am - IP Logged

    I coined the phase "Dollar and a Dream" six years ago in this post: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/57276

    Nice to see some of my old posts are still read.

    I got "dollar and a dream" from a New York Lotto billboard while visiting New York City.

      four4me's avatar - gate1
      MD
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      Posted: September 9, 2007, 2:22 am - IP Logged

      I didn't read every one of the last 7 post all the way through ( hurt my head to much) but i did read something that caught my eye. something about selling all the combinations.

      If i go and buy 100 mega million or power ball tickets. There is nothing written anywhere that those combinations won't be sold to someone else.  

      While it is possible that one day they might sell nearly all the combinations for a mega or power ball game. If they do they will also sell multiple quick pick tickets with the same exact numbers on them be them winners or losers.

      As was evident in the last Mega draw where all 4 winning tickets were quick picks unless I'm mistaken.

        computerhead723's avatar - lightbulb
        Buffalo
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        Posted: September 9, 2007, 2:34 am - IP Logged

        I don't claim to be a mathmatician, but if every time you buy another ticket the odds are cut in half, that would mean I'd be guaranteed a win if I keep buying enough tickets.  If you buy $5 worth of tickets then you have 5 chances out of $146 million.  If your example were true, then I would have no problem winning the FL lottery which was over $40 million last week.  (although tonight's $6M would be just fine) 

        We've had this discussion many times on LP.  Almost everybody argues that I am looking at this all wrong, but I think that buying 10 tickets increases your odds by giving you a 10 in 146,107,962 million shot at winning, leaving 146,107,952 other combinations that could be drawn.  Call me lousy in math, but the way people keep describing how the odds keep splitting with every ticket purchase is painting a much more optimistic picture.  Yes, every PB ticket a person buys might be one more ticket to Paradise.  But there are always going to be another 146 million other possibilities even if someone is crazy enough to spend $107,952 on one game.

        However, I do believe that the more tickets a person buys, the better his chances are at winning.  It's just common sense.  People do win large jackpots with only one ticket.  I can't say for PB or MM, but it's not uncommon to read that someone bought a QP or 2 and won the state lottery.  Still, let's say you spent $20 and the 21st was the winner. The next person would win with only $1.  So saying "it only takes 1" is a true statement.

        Just  spoke  to  a  man  who  spends  between  $$300-$$900  on   PB  quick  picks  and  travels  out  of  state  to  play  the  powerBall  ....after  we  talked  ....he  wants  to  come  up  with  a  better  system  since  he  has  never  won  any  money  on  his  Quick  Picks and  so  far  has  cost  him  in  the  thousands ................Bash 

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: September 9, 2007, 4:03 pm - IP Logged

          Just  spoke  to  a  man  who  spends  between  $$300-$$900  on   PB  quick  picks  and  travels  out  of  state  to  play  the  powerBall  ....after  we  talked  ....he  wants  to  come  up  with  a  better  system  since  he  has  never  won  any  money  on  his  Quick  Picks and  so  far  has  cost  him  in  the  thousands ................Bash 

          He serioulsy needs to find something else to bet on, not a better "system" for Powerball. 

          If there was ever an argument that refutes this fairy tale about reducing by half, fractionalizing, or whatever people want to call it, this is it, $300-$900 worth at a whack.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
            Indiana
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            Posted: September 9, 2007, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

            He serioulsy needs to find something else to bet on, not a better "system" for Powerball. 

            If there was ever an argument that refutes this fairy tale about reducing by half, fractionalizing, or whatever people want to call it, this is it, $300-$900 worth at a whack.

            Wrong again! You're saying this "argument" that you call it, refutes, which means to prove wrong, the information that has been posted about fractions. It's not wrong though. You are wrong. You just don't understand fractions.

            300 tickets = 300 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 487,026.54

            900 tickets = 900 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 162,342.18

            You know, I'm actually finding it funny now, especially since you are referring to fractions as a "fairy tail".Green laugh
             

            Gonna win.Big Smile

              computerhead723's avatar - lightbulb
              Buffalo
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              Posted: September 9, 2007, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

              He serioulsy needs to find something else to bet on, not a better "system" for Powerball. 

              If there was ever an argument that refutes this fairy tale about reducing by half, fractionalizing, or whatever people want to call it, this is it, $300-$900 worth at a whack.

              these  NY  counties  combined  spend  about  4 million  a  week  on  numbers  and  lottery  alone  but  the  return  is  so  far  below  expectatios  is  almost  silly  to  play ;this  chart  below  shows  what  the  lottery  paid  out  for  the  year  so  far;

               

               

               


              (counties included are: Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans and Wyoming)


              LOTTO$8,224.00
              Mega Millions$122,052.00
              Numbers$406,375.00
              Win 4$138,754.00
              Pick 10$9,838.00
              Take Five$120,387.00
              Quick Draw$458,569.00
              Instant Games*$2,896,406.00

              Total prizes paid$4,038,553.00


              *This week's top three winning Instant games were:
              • DEAL OR NO DEAL
              • CASHWORD
              • CASHWORD DOUBLER
              The Western New York region earned $2,540,371.77 for education in New York State for the week of 08/26/2007.
               
               
               

               

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                Posted: September 9, 2007, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

                You just don't understand that fractions have nothing to do with "love money" and each one dollar buys one line of numbers and can only buy one line of numbers and that one line of numbers is1/ 146,107,962nd of all possible lines of numbers and that's all any one dollar and one line can ever be. 

                IT'S JUST UP TO EACH INDIVIDUAL HOW MANY TIMES THEY WANT TO BUY ONE LINE OF NUMBERS FOR ANY GIVEN DRAW.

                Tst your fraction theory- take enough out of the bank, evenif you have to borrow it, so that you can "fractionalize"your little chart up there down to less than 1.0

                Then you'd have to win. It might be a wee bit ewntertaining telling a loan officer thoigh that you want to borrow ten or twenty "large" because you've got the lottery figured out, it's all fractions you see. 

                Make the loan, make the bet, collect the winnings and tell us about it.

                Or statazeet.  

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  Avatar
                  NY
                  United States
                  Member #23835
                  October 16, 2005
                  3474 Posts
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                  Posted: September 10, 2007, 1:00 am - IP Logged

                  You just don't understand that fractions have nothing to do with "love money" and each one dollar buys one line of numbers and can only buy one line of numbers and that one line of numbers is1/ 146,107,962nd of all possible lines of numbers and that's all any one dollar and one line can ever be. 

                  IT'S JUST UP TO EACH INDIVIDUAL HOW MANY TIMES THEY WANT TO BUY ONE LINE OF NUMBERS FOR ANY GIVEN DRAW.

                  Tst your fraction theory- take enough out of the bank, evenif you have to borrow it, so that you can "fractionalize"your little chart up there down to less than 1.0

                  Then you'd have to win. It might be a wee bit ewntertaining telling a loan officer thoigh that you want to borrow ten or twenty "large" because you've got the lottery figured out, it's all fractions you see. 

                  Make the loan, make the bet, collect the winnings and tell us about it.

                  Or statazeet.  

                  "Tst your fraction theory- take enough out of the bank, evenif you have to borrow it, so that you can "fractionalize"your little chart up there down to less than 1.0"

                  I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong.  The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does.

                  The only way to get the fraction down to 1 is for the numerator and the denominator to be the same. For MM that would mean having all 175,711,536 combinations so that your odds would be 175,711,536 in 175,711,536. Since you don't understand how to simplify fractions, that's the same as 1:1.

                  Nobody here has ever said that you can do it with fewer tickets. It's only your own ignorance that somehow leads you to that particular error.

                    Avatar
                    NY
                    United States
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                    October 16, 2005
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                    Posted: September 10, 2007, 1:07 am - IP Logged

                    these  NY  counties  combined  spend  about  4 million  a  week  on  numbers  and  lottery  alone  but  the  return  is  so  far  below  expectatios  is  almost  silly  to  play ;this  chart  below  shows  what  the  lottery  paid  out  for  the  year  so  far;

                     

                     

                     


                    (counties included are: Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans and Wyoming)


                    LOTTO$8,224.00
                    Mega Millions$122,052.00
                    Numbers$406,375.00
                    Win 4$138,754.00
                    Pick 10$9,838.00
                    Take Five$120,387.00
                    Quick Draw$458,569.00
                    Instant Games*$2,896,406.00

                    Total prizes paid$4,038,553.00


                    *This week's top three winning Instant games were:
                    • DEAL OR NO DEAL
                    • CASHWORD
                    • CASHWORD DOUBLER
                    The Western New York region earned $2,540,371.77 for education in New York State for the week of 08/26/2007.
                     
                     
                     

                     

                    If you go back and read it again you'll find that those figures are very clearly for the week of 8/26 to 9/1. A bit over $2.5 million went to education, meaning that the payout for the week was actually a bit over 60%.

                      computerhead723's avatar - lightbulb
                      Buffalo
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                      August 17, 2007
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                      Posted: September 10, 2007, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                      If you go back and read it again you'll find that those figures are very clearly for the week of 8/26 to 9/1. A bit over $2.5 million went to education, meaning that the payout for the week was actually a bit over 60%.

                      I  don't  dispute  your  grasp  of  math  but  ............only  30%  of  lottery proffits  go  to  Education ,thats  requried  by  state  law  ;

                      returning  the  money  back  to  the  players is  no  more  than  25% ...since  as  you  can  see  if  almost  4million  in  payouts  was  recorded  than  how  much  was  spent  by  players  on  the  combined  lotteries in  one  week????????????? 

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
                        United States
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                        Posted: September 10, 2007, 11:57 am - IP Logged

                        KY Floyd

                        "I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong.  The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does."

                        I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, "these guys know how to cut the odds down", by whatever means you want to call it.

                        You again:

                        "The only way to get the fraction down to 1 is for the numerator and the denominator to be the same. For MM that would mean having all 175,711,536 combinations so that your odds would be 175,711,536 in 175,711,536. Since you don't understand how to simplify fractions, that's the same as 1:1."

                        Thank you. You just proved that the only way the  only way to make the numerator and denominator the saem is $1 at a time, one line of numbers at a time, which reduces the "big pucture" by one, AND ONLY ONE, combination at a time.

                        The only fraction that would ever be involved here is one by one

                        1/175, 711, 536

                        2/ 175,711, 536, etc....

                        In lotto this is the same as

                        1/ 175, 711, 53

                         The tenth dollar, or tenth line of numbers would not be as shown as in these wonderful lottle hype charts all throughout this thread, but in reality it's:

                        1/175,711,526.

                        Ten sets of numbers has reduced it by ten, that's the only thing possible.  

                        If you believe anything else I can suggest a couple of football betting selection services that love your way of thinking.  

                        Tell you guys what, Illiois Little Lotto is $815,000 tonight. It's a 5/39 game with jackpot odds of 575, 757 to one (so you have a situation where a solo hit would pay better than true odds). Go ahead and make a pool or whatever you want to do, and "fractionalize" it down to your advantage. By the examples in these posts it will certainly cost less to bring 575, 757 down than it would to bring 175,711,536 (guess we jumped from Powerball to MM).

                        Considering how much easier that would be, I'd like to come here tomorrow and read about one of the math "experts" specializing in fractions having won it.

                        Either that or admitting your theories leave a lot to be desired, in this case, jackpots.

                        _________________

                        As for "Bucks for education", every state with a lottery has a way of taking out an equal, or greater amount than the lottery contributes to school funds. Granted it's voodoo accounting, but they all do it.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                          Indiana
                          United States
                          Member #48725
                          January 7, 2007
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                          Posted: September 10, 2007, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

                          KY Floyd

                          "I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong.  The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does."

                          I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, "these guys know how to cut the odds down", by whatever means you want to call it.

                          You again:

                          "The only way to get the fraction down to 1 is for the numerator and the denominator to be the same. For MM that would mean having all 175,711,536 combinations so that your odds would be 175,711,536 in 175,711,536. Since you don't understand how to simplify fractions, that's the same as 1:1."

                          Thank you. You just proved that the only way the  only way to make the numerator and denominator the saem is $1 at a time, one line of numbers at a time, which reduces the "big pucture" by one, AND ONLY ONE, combination at a time.

                          The only fraction that would ever be involved here is one by one

                          1/175, 711, 536

                          2/ 175,711, 536, etc....

                          In lotto this is the same as

                          1/ 175, 711, 53

                           The tenth dollar, or tenth line of numbers would not be as shown as in these wonderful lottle hype charts all throughout this thread, but in reality it's:

                          1/175,711,526.

                          Ten sets of numbers has reduced it by ten, that's the only thing possible.  

                          If you believe anything else I can suggest a couple of football betting selection services that love your way of thinking.  

                          Tell you guys what, Illiois Little Lotto is $815,000 tonight. It's a 5/39 game with jackpot odds of 575, 757 to one (so you have a situation where a solo hit would pay better than true odds). Go ahead and make a pool or whatever you want to do, and "fractionalize" it down to your advantage. By the examples in these posts it will certainly cost less to bring 575, 757 down than it would to bring 175,711,536 (guess we jumped from Powerball to MM).

                          Considering how much easier that would be, I'd like to come here tomorrow and read about one of the math "experts" specializing in fractions having won it.

                          Either that or admitting your theories leave a lot to be desired, in this case, jackpots.

                          _________________

                          As for "Bucks for education", every state with a lottery has a way of taking out an equal, or greater amount than the lottery contributes to school funds. Granted it's voodoo accounting, but they all do it.

                          2/175,711,536 is not the same as 1/175,711,535. 2/175,711,536 is the same as 1/87,855,768. People aren't concerned with what the odds of a single line are. They are concerned with their odds as a whole. That's why they buy more tickets.

                          Gonna win.Big Smile

                            Avatar
                            NY
                            United States
                            Member #23835
                            October 16, 2005
                            3474 Posts
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                            Posted: September 10, 2007, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

                            "2/ 175,711, 536, etc....

                             In lotto this is the same as

                             1/ 175, 711, 53

                              The tenth dollar, or tenth line of numbers would not be as shown as in these wonderful lottle hype charts all throughout this thread, but in reality it's:

                             1/175,711,526."

                             

                            Click. Now I get it. I really don't know how I could have been so stupid for so long.

                            Each ticket reduces the odds by only 1. It makes so much sense, now. If I buy a 2nd ticket the odds drop from 1 in 175,711,536 to 1 in 175,711,535 instead of to 2 in 175,711,536.

                            If I buy 101 tickets the odds would then drop to (175,711,536 - 100) 1 in 175,711,436 .

                             If I buy 1 million and 1 tickets the odds would then drop to (175,711,536 - 1,000,000) 1 in 174,711,436.

                             And finally, if I go see the loan officer at the bank, I could buy 175,711,534 tickets. That would let me buy every single combination except the two that we know could never win anyway (1,2,3,4,5, +6 and  52,53,54,55,56 +46). By buying all but two  of the combinations I would drop my odds all the way down to  (175,711,436 - 175,711,434) 1 in 2! Did I do that right? 

                             By buying all but two of the possible combinations, I would have a 50% chance of winning! Did I get that right, too? I'm still having trouble with this lottery math, so I'm not sure, but 1 in 2 would be 50/50, just like, well, a coin toss, right?

                             Boy! Now that I see how it works I guess I shouldn't beat myself up about taking so long to figure it out.  This lottery math is way more difficult than regular math.

                              Avatar
                              Kentucky
                              United States
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                              February 14, 2006
                              7310 Posts
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                              Posted: September 10, 2007, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                              KY Floyd

                              "I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong.  The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does."

                              I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, "these guys know how to cut the odds down", by whatever means you want to call it.

                              You again:

                              "The only way to get the fraction down to 1 is for the numerator and the denominator to be the same. For MM that would mean having all 175,711,536 combinations so that your odds would be 175,711,536 in 175,711,536. Since you don't understand how to simplify fractions, that's the same as 1:1."

                              Thank you. You just proved that the only way the  only way to make the numerator and denominator the saem is $1 at a time, one line of numbers at a time, which reduces the "big pucture" by one, AND ONLY ONE, combination at a time.

                              The only fraction that would ever be involved here is one by one

                              1/175, 711, 536

                              2/ 175,711, 536, etc....

                              In lotto this is the same as

                              1/ 175, 711, 53

                               The tenth dollar, or tenth line of numbers would not be as shown as in these wonderful lottle hype charts all throughout this thread, but in reality it's:

                              1/175,711,526.

                              Ten sets of numbers has reduced it by ten, that's the only thing possible.  

                              If you believe anything else I can suggest a couple of football betting selection services that love your way of thinking.  

                              Tell you guys what, Illiois Little Lotto is $815,000 tonight. It's a 5/39 game with jackpot odds of 575, 757 to one (so you have a situation where a solo hit would pay better than true odds). Go ahead and make a pool or whatever you want to do, and "fractionalize" it down to your advantage. By the examples in these posts it will certainly cost less to bring 575, 757 down than it would to bring 175,711,536 (guess we jumped from Powerball to MM).

                              Considering how much easier that would be, I'd like to come here tomorrow and read about one of the math "experts" specializing in fractions having won it.

                              Either that or admitting your theories leave a lot to be desired, in this case, jackpots.

                              _________________

                              As for "Bucks for education", every state with a lottery has a way of taking out an equal, or greater amount than the lottery contributes to school funds. Granted it's voodoo accounting, but they all do it.

                              "I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, "these guys know how to cut the odds down", by whatever means you want to call it."

                              Do we really need all these math lessons to understand if we buy 1000 tickets we have a better chance of winning the jackpot than if we only bought 1 ticket?

                              Most people probably get about 10 tickets even the jackpot is high so the odds are irrelevant and certainly not worth an argument. The topic is "a dollar for a dream" and the Mega Millions dream is to match 5 out of 56 numbers with 1 out of 46 other numbers (55 and 42 for Powerball). For $10, at best we only get 10 Mega Ball numbers so the only way the odds are actually reduced to 17,571,153.6 to 1 is if one of those balls is drawn. I'm not questioning the odds on 10 tickets just pointing that if one of the 36 Mega numbers or 140,569,239 combinations we don't have is drawn, the dream is over.

                              I'd rather read about ideas on better ways to play the games on a $10 to $20 lottery budget than a refresher course on fractions.