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A dollar and a dream true for PB and MM?

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Perfect Timing.

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Harbinger
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Posted: September 3, 2007, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

Guru101 writes: 

"1,000,000 tickets = 1,000,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 146.107512(<-Obvious)

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious) "

This is where the odds actually become significant to the player holding the tickets, when the numerator starts approaching the denominator, obviously.

Each ticket you have in your pocket has the same odds as all others until your pockets start filling up way more than will fit in those pockets no matter how big they are.

    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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    Posted: September 3, 2007, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

    Guru101 writes: 

    "1,000,000 tickets = 1,000,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 146.107512(<-Obvious)

    146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious) "

    This is where the odds actually become significant to the player holding the tickets, when the numerator starts approaching the denominator, obviously.

    Each ticket you have in your pocket has the same odds as all others until your pockets start filling up way more than will fit in those pockets no matter how big they are.

    I'm not talking about a single ticket's odds of hitting the jackpot, I'm talking about a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot. When you want to determine a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot, you have to take into consideration ALL of the tickets they have bought.

    Gonna win.Big Smile

      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
      Harbinger
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      Posted: September 3, 2007, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

      I'm not talking about a single ticket's odds of hitting the jackpot, I'm talking about a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot. When you want to determine a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot, you have to take into consideration ALL of the tickets they have bought.

      I agree with that.

      I also agree (unstated) that it also increases your chances significantly on the lower tier prizes.

      The jackpot winning combination is still elusive and you have to be very well funded to buy enough combos to get close to the top prize as an individual.  That is my point, I have seen  people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, but lots of lower tier prizes never breaking even. You have to buy millions, if you're aiming for the top prize.

      I have hit every prize but a jackpot on these 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games without buying more than 20-50 lines.

      I have yet to hit better than 4 of a 5/55 or 5/56 game, so I shoot for the bonus ball on these.

      On those 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games, your chances are  improved by playing a few more lines, but nevertheless I know every time I play, there will only be one winning jackpot combination and every ticket in my pocket is in the game equally for the top prize.

      And if I ever do hit a jackpot top prize of any game it won't be because I bought five, ten, several hundred, it will be because of luck.

      I will then take that jackpot money and go back to school and re-learn fractions.  I also may retake some of those computational analysis courses I took back there in the day, since they don't use punch cards anymore, they might be more fun now!

        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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        Posted: September 3, 2007, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

        I agree with that.

        I also agree (unstated) that it also increases your chances significantly on the lower tier prizes.

        The jackpot winning combination is still elusive and you have to be very well funded to buy enough combos to get close to the top prize as an individual.  That is my point, I have seen  people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, but lots of lower tier prizes never breaking even. You have to buy millions, if you're aiming for the top prize.

        I have hit every prize but a jackpot on these 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games without buying more than 20-50 lines.

        I have yet to hit better than 4 of a 5/55 or 5/56 game, so I shoot for the bonus ball on these.

        On those 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games, your chances are  improved by playing a few more lines, but nevertheless I know every time I play, there will only be one winning jackpot combination and every ticket in my pocket is in the game equally for the top prize.

        And if I ever do hit a jackpot top prize of any game it won't be because I bought five, ten, several hundred, it will be because of luck.

        I will then take that jackpot money and go back to school and re-learn fractions.  I also may retake some of those computational analysis courses I took back there in the day, since they don't use punch cards anymore, they might be more fun now!

        You might also want to take a C++ computer programming course so you can make a computer program based off a system you've developed for choosing lottery numbers so you can turn Pick 5 odds into less than Pick 3 odds.Thumbs Up

        Gonna win.Big Smile

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          Harbinger
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          Posted: September 3, 2007, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

          You might also want to take a C++ computer programming course so you can make a computer program based off a system you've developed for choosing lottery numbers so you can turn Pick 5 odds into less than Pick 3 odds.Thumbs Up

          I would call one of them programs:

            "GURUS' LOTTO FRACTAL SEQUENCER V.539"

          Of course I would provide a shareware version for trial and full version at a modest price.

            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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            Posted: September 3, 2007, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

            I would call one of them programs:

              "GURUS' LOTTO FRACTAL SEQUENCER V.539"

            Of course I would provide a shareware version for trial and full version at a modest price.

            Making a full blown software application would certainly need to be to pondered about. Actually, I think a web subscription service would be better because I can keep all my (lottery) system algorithms server side, for obvious reasons. Either way, it's certainly a long road before I would be able to do something like that so I'm not worried about that right now. I do like that picture though.LOL

            Gonna win.Big Smile

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              Posted: September 3, 2007, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

              I'm just wondering if any winners ever won the big one on PB and MM with just a $1 dollar ticket.  In the news, all I hear are ones with $3 or $5 tickets.

               

              Reason I'm asking is because I might reduce the amount I spend on lottery.  Everyone's telling me "One is all you need".

              Great Post>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>BUT??

              Do you relly, rally,.........REALLY think U & the star's & $1.00 is all

              U need to WIN?

              DON't want to rain on anybody's PARADE<<<<<<<<<<<<<BUT...

              Play a dallor a week for the next 50 years>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

              Then call Todd @ LP and let us>>

              know howParty much "D" JACKPOT t'was?

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                Posted: September 6, 2007, 1:47 am - IP Logged

                Only one combination can win.

                A ticket may have five lines of numbers representing five combinations on it, but only one of them can be the winner.

                Every line of numbers ( in the game discussed) has odds of 146,107,962:1.

                No matter how many lines (sets) of numbers are played, each set is up against the same odds.

                $100 worth of tickets reduces the combinations not covered by 100, $1,000 worth of different sets of numbers reduces the combinations left by 1,000.

                There was no "magic bullet" in the JFK assasination and there's no "magic dollar" in lotto. 

                No matter what the  Pick 6 or 5 + 1 game or the matrix, each dollar = one combination covered, of millions.

                Anyone who tells you anything else will also tell you what a great time they had at the 1994 World Series. Caution.

                "Only one combination can win."

                That's true for MM and PB, but not all games, so why would you think that's the only factor in determing your odds? Take a look at the raffle games that have been offered lately. The odds of winning a top prize in those games is based on how many top prizes there are, but it's still about the proportion of tickets to winning combinations. In a typical raffle there may be 1 million combinations and 10 top prizes, for odds of 1 in 100,000. The odds would be exactly the same if there was only 1 top prize but each ticket had 10 numbers.

                If you buy only 1 combination for PB or MM  there's only one possible combination that can match your ticket. If you buy two combinations, there are now two possible combinations that will match one of your tickets. As far as the odds, that's exacrtly the same as drawing 2 winnning combinations if you only had 1 of the tickets.

                Suppose you buy a single PB ticket. There are 3,478,761 possible combinations for the 5 regular balls, so there's a 1 in 3,478,761 chance that you will match all 5. There's also a 1 in 42 chance you'll match the power ball. That makes the chances of matching all 5 balls and the power ball 1 in (3,478,761 X 42), or 1 in 146,107,962.

                Now suppose you bought 42 PB tickets, each with the same 5 regular balls and a different power ball. Since there are 42 power balls and you've played all of them you will match the powerball.  Your chances of matching all 5 regular balls is still 1 in 3,478,761, isn't it? 146,107,962/3,478,761 is 42, so your 42 tickets makes you 42 times as likely to win as if you had bought only 1 ticket. Two tickets makes you 2 times as likely to win, 5 tickets makes you 5 times as likely to win, 10 tickets makes you 10 times as likely to win, and 42 tickets makes you 42 times as likely to win. The same thing works for every number of tickets.

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                  Posted: September 6, 2007, 1:50 am - IP Logged

                  I agree with that.

                  I also agree (unstated) that it also increases your chances significantly on the lower tier prizes.

                  The jackpot winning combination is still elusive and you have to be very well funded to buy enough combos to get close to the top prize as an individual.  That is my point, I have seen  people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, but lots of lower tier prizes never breaking even. You have to buy millions, if you're aiming for the top prize.

                  I have hit every prize but a jackpot on these 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games without buying more than 20-50 lines.

                  I have yet to hit better than 4 of a 5/55 or 5/56 game, so I shoot for the bonus ball on these.

                  On those 5/39, 6/39, 6/49 games, your chances are  improved by playing a few more lines, but nevertheless I know every time I play, there will only be one winning jackpot combination and every ticket in my pocket is in the game equally for the top prize.

                  And if I ever do hit a jackpot top prize of any game it won't be because I bought five, ten, several hundred, it will be because of luck.

                  I will then take that jackpot money and go back to school and re-learn fractions.  I also may retake some of those computational analysis courses I took back there in the day, since they don't use punch cards anymore, they might be more fun now!

                  "I have seen  people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, "

                  Anyone who thinks that having 1000 out of 145 or 176 million combinations gives them a lock on winning the jackpot is a moron, but that doesn't mean that the math doesn't work the way Guru has explained it.

                  You post about sets is clueless about how the odds really work, but the basic idea of sets can be used to offer a clue to those who are smart enough.  Lets imagine a game with odds of 1 in 100 million. Suppose you made 10 sets, each with 10 million of the possible combinations. If I have 1 ticket it will only belong to one set, so I can't possibly win unless the winning combination happens to be in that set. If the ticket is in that set I will have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning, because that's how many choices there are in each set. Now let's  suppose that I buy 10 tickets, and each ticket matches a combination in a different set. Since I have a ticket for each of the 10 sets I will have one ticket that belongs to the set with the winning combination. Since there are 10 million combinations in the set my ticket from that set will have a 1 in 10 million chance of matching the winning combination. That means that by buying 10 tickets in a game with 1 in 100 million odds I have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning. QED.

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                    Posted: September 6, 2007, 1:56 am - IP Logged

                    Guru101

                    1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

                    5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

                    If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become "zero". That's the flaw in it.

                    14 x $5 = $70, that's where the 70 came from.

                    You don't realize you're promoting the idea that you could take the odds down to nothing with $70.

                    That's why the 5 tickets reducing them by 117 million (146 - 29) is flawed.  

                    If it was purely a math problem, yeah- but in math problems there are no prizes or jackpots, only solutions.

                    The way the lotto operates is that each set of numbers is up against all the odds, the total odds againt hitting a jackpost. Otherwise it wouldn't be a lotto but a giveaway.

                    The odds against hitting the jackpost are always the same regardless of how many tickets held. Every lottery player that doesn;t realize that should have it tattooed somewhere

                    The amount of monsy each person is willing to risk to buy any number of tickets is the only vatiable here.

                    If the purchase of 5 tickets could reduce the jackpot odds by 117 million, there would be no lottery being offered to play.

                    Anything else  is tripe peddled by hucksters, system sellers, and touts.

                    Perhaps it is these kind of "disinformation" threads that are attracting these people here who join and in their first post ask, "Ok, how do I win?

                    "If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become "zero". That's the flaw in it."

                    I'm sorry to repeat myself for the 37th time, but the people who agree with you are the only ones who think that anyone else thinks it works that way.  Those of us who understand it have never said any such thing. It's all about proportions. Buying the 5 tickets that Guru has used in his example makes you 5 times more likely to win. Notice how the 5 is repeated.  1 in 145 million vs 5 in 145 million. 5 in 145 million is exactly the same as [(5/5) in (145 million/5)], which is 1 in 29 million. If it will help, you can look up the definition of proportion.

                    "You don't realize you're promoting the idea that you could take the odds down to nothing with $70."

                    Again, it's only your misunderstanding of the explanation that suggests any such thing. In reality nobody has said it would work that way. Buying 5 tickets  13 more times will give you a total of 70 tickets which will make you 70 times more likely to win than if you had only 1 ticket. I'll repeat that in a different way since it seems to be a stumbling point. Buying 14 times as many as somebody who has 5 tickets will make you 14 times more likely to win than they are. They're 5 times as likely to win as somebody with 1 ticket, and you're 14 times more likely to win than them, so that makes you 5 X 14 (I trust you know that's 70) times as likely to win as somebody with only one ticket.  Again, it's all about proportion. 14 times as many tickets make you 14 times as likely to win, whether that 14 is compared to 1 ticket, 5 tickets or 100 tickets. Since I do the math the right way I don't really know what mistake you've made to come up with zero.

                    "If it was purely a math problem, yeah- but in math problems there are no prizes or jackpots, only solutions.  "

                    Are you suggesting that the odds depend on whether or not a prize is offered?  You can attach whatever confusion you choose to your attempt at solving the problem, but it is a simple math problem, and the correct solution is the same whether it's a simple exercise in probability or the practical application of probability in conducting a lottery.

                     "The odds against hitting the jackpost are always the same regardless of how many tickets held."

                    Read literally you've just said that having 10 tickets or 10 million tickets gives you exactly the same odds as if you only had a single ticket. I'm guessing that even you don't actually think that's how it works.  If it did, how could the lottery possibly be won so often? Who owns the tickets determines who wins, but the chances of a winner in any given draw depend on the number of combinations in play, not how many people bought all of those combinations.

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                      Posted: September 6, 2007, 1:58 am - IP Logged

                      DUH!!!!!! I thought the conversation was about buying tickets not combinations.  Simply going up to a clerk and asking for $100 worth of lottery tickets doesn't guarantee you will have 100 different combinations (even if you request no duplications).  While it's highly unlikely that you would, to be sure you would have to fill out $100 worth of play slips.

                      The discussion is about probability, and anyone with any real grasp of math would understand that for the purpose of the discussion each ticket represents a distinct combination.

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                        Posted: September 6, 2007, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                        KYFloyd

                        "Now suppose you bought 42 PB tickets, each with the same 5 regular balls and a different power ball. Since there are 42 power balls and you've played all of them you will match the powerball.  Your chances of matching all 5 regular balls is still 1 in 3,478,761, isn't it? 146,107,962/3,478,761 is 42, so your 42 tickets makes you 42 times as likely to win as if you had bought only 1 ticket...."

                         You're assuming at least one of those 5 regular balls is gong to be drawn. There's no such thing as a lock, as has been said here. If none of those 5 balls are drawn you've put up $42 for a guaranteed"win" of $3.

                        "But by covering all the Powerballs, I've won $3!"

                        "Naw Willard, you lost $39"

                        "Dang, I just can't believe none of those five numbers hit."

                        "The lottery people can." 

                        If you consider every ticket sold as being held by a person, let's say on any given draw it's Powerball (or Mega Miillions) vs The Player, lumping all sales into one entity called The Player), then by the theories bbeing presented in this thread, from the magic and wonders of fractionalizing to the word play of "chances" and "probabilities" THERE SHOULD BE A JACKPOT WINNER EVERY DRAW.

                        But there isn't, and in a legitimate operation there never will be. So as long as the reality is out of 104 draws a year there are 12 to 15 times that the top jackpot is paid out I'm going to consider all these arguments right up there with the physics professor who insisted a curve ball doesn't curve.  It's an optical illusion of the seams spinning the ball travels forward, you see. But then an alumni of the school was pitching in the majors and came back to visit. The professor was invited to bat against him. As the ball was heading for his head and he dove into the dirt, the catcher and umpire both snickered as the ump called STEEEERRRIKE!

                        "Let me tell you somehting kid, there's nobody easier, and more enjoyable to beat, than a guy with a degree in probabilities that comes up to the game with a pencil and a notebook. We'd fly them here if they asked us to."

                        -Las Vegas Casino Boss 

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                          Posted: September 6, 2007, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

                          You're mistaken. You see, the odds of someone winning with 5 tickets is 5 times more likely to occur than someone who has 1 ticket. That's why 146,107,962 was divided by 5. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not have the same effect. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not divide that person's odds by 5, it divides it by 2, in effect doubling the persons chances of winning the jackpot.

                          No duplicates:

                          1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

                          5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

                          10 tickets = 10 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 14,610,751.2

                          As you can see, going from 1 ticket to 5 tickets increases your odds by 5 because you have 5 TIMES more tickets, but going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets only doubles it because you have 2 TIMES more tickets. For $70 worth of tickets:

                          70 tickets = 70 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 2,087,256.6

                          NOTE: I made an oopsie in my previous posts as typing 146,107,962 as 146,107,512. Sorry about that. Got too many numbers running through my head. 146,107,962 is the correct one.

                          Nice to see that this friendly discussion has resurfaced!

                          I continue to agree with Guru and Stack, among others...it's all just fractions, finding an easier way to say the same thing.

                          If I could expand on Guru's response to CoinToss...

                          When working with odds, you need to use multiplication, not addition. 

                          Using the Powerball example:

                          1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

                          5 tickets = 1 in 29,221,502

                          25 tickets = 1 in 5,844,318

                          125 tickets = 1 in 1,168,864

                          625 tickets = 1 in 233,773

                          As the left side is multiplied by 5, the right side is divided by 5.  As you multiply the number of tickets bought, you have to divide the odds by that number, when expressed in "1 in x" format.  It maintains balance, necessary to proper (and, improper for that matter, ha) fraction function.  What you do to the numerator, you have to do to the denominator. 

                          Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets.  It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win.  Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole.

                            JackpotWanna's avatar - squiz

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                            Posted: September 6, 2007, 5:01 pm - IP Logged

                            Yes, you only need one ticket to win, but buying more tickets increases your odds of winning. 

                             

                            Party 

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                              Posted: September 6, 2007, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

                              JAG331

                              "Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets.  It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win.  Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole."

                              I realize that. I also realize that of all tickets sold are considered as belonging to one player as a whole then the that 'player's chances  have  been "fractionalized" by oh, 137,000,000 or so (last Mega Millions frenzy). And yet, like Isaid before, out of 104 drawings a year 12 to 15 produce a jackpot winner (Powerball and Mega Millions website's FAQ's).

                              If that was inded the case, the lottery would havde to have people hanging out on the streets handing out money to people - yeah, right.

                              I'll tell al you guys that believe this stuff this: Show is something. Hit a jackpot.  Then talk.  One ounce of did beats two tons of gonna.

                              Til then, buono fortuna.  

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.