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Something to think about: You would not have necessarily won.

Topic closed. 99 replies. Last post 7 years ago by CutlassBob.

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Posted: April 7, 2010, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

JRosina, I'm glad that you're open to what this thread is about. It was something I was thinking of and I don't believe I've seen a thread about it, so I figured why not make one. I can understand why most people take lottery results at face value, and they should. I mean, hey, what was drawn was drawn and that's how you check your numbers, but the results are only known after the fact. I just thought I'd throw a little "chain of events" discussion into the mix. I don't think it went so well though lol. It's all good. Nice post btw lol.

Ignore the childish remarks of the unlearnedIt's going well,  I agree with Ca-dreamin*

forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

Now, does it count??

 

 

*Jr$ina

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    Posted: April 7, 2010, 10:01 pm - IP Logged

    Guru I think it's going just fine.

    Thanks ca-dreamin!

    Another thing that kinda goes into the whole "butterfly effect" discussion, is the topic of hindsight bias. From wisegeek.com:

    Hindsight bias is a documented psychological phenomenon in which people exaggerate the predictability of an event after it has already happened. Some psychologists refer to hindsight bias as the “I knew that was going to happen” effect. You can probably find a few examples of hindsight bias in a pub after a major sports event, with people claiming that the outcome was obvious and predictable. The hindsight bias is one of many such biases, and according to a study performed by the American Psychological Association in 2000, the hindsight bias actually helps people think more clearly sometimes, by helping the brain to retain correct and relevant information rather than incorrect information.

    You can probably think of a few examples of hindsight bias in your life, especially if phrases like “hindsight is also 20/20” and “I told you so!” sound familiar to you. Hindsight bias works in a number of ways, and it is especially important to take hindsight bias into account in criminal cases, because a witness may not be strictly accurate, since he or she may be influenced by hindsight bias, along with a number of other biases which can influence the way someone's brain restores and recalls information.

    A classic example of a hindsight bias occurs when someone claims that his or her prediction about an event was more significant that it really was. For example, someone might generally observe that “it looks like rain in the future,” given his or her general knowledge of local weather patterns. If it rains shortly after this statement is made, the person might feel that the prediction was stronger than it really was. Incorrect or inaccurate predictions tend not to be remembered as well as vaguely correct predictions, reinforcing the idea in someone's mind that his or her predictive skills are better than they really are.

    In a specific phenomenon called vaticinium ex eventu, someone makes an extremely vague statement about an event which might occur, and then turns that statement into a solid prediction after the event has occurred. This is sometimes scathingly called “postdiction.” Many examples of vague predictions which were later thought to be more important than they actually were can be found in Greek mythology, where the cryptic oracles make blanket statements which could easily be said to be predictive of a great number of events.

    Along with several other biases documented in psychology, the hindsight bias is caused by something known as an availability heuristic. Essentially, people make assessments about things on the basis of information which they can bring readily to mind, although this may not be the most scientific way to base such an assessment. For example, someone might visit a particular franchise in a fast food chain and note that all of the patrons there are overweight. He or she might then say that all patrons of that chain are overweight, on the basis of this single example. In the case of hindsight bias, people turn a few vague statements into solid predictions, and assume that an event like the outcome of a Presidential election is predictable on the basis of their experiences.


    And from Wikipedia:

    Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine. In psychological experiments of hindsight bias, subjects also tend to remember their predictions of future events as having been stronger than they actually were, in those cases where those predictions turn out correct. This inaccurate assessment of reality after it has occurred is also referred to as “creeping determinism”.

    Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as vaticinium ex eventu.

    One explanation of the bias is the availability heuristic: the event that did occur is more salient in one's mind than the possible outcomes that did not.

    It has been shown that examining possible alternatives may reduce the effects of this bias.

    Gonna win.Big Smile

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      Posted: April 7, 2010, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

      Ignore the childish remarks of the unlearnedIt's going well,  I agree with Ca-dreamin*

      NAME NAMES!!!!...

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        Posted: April 7, 2010, 11:02 pm - IP Logged

        My wife could burn someone's supper on the stove in Idaho while cooking in Tennessee. I have no evidence of that but I'm convinced she could do it. That has to be one of the mysteries of the universe.

        LOL!!

        Well, if I get the jist of this thread then, burning dinner in Idaho would move the family to go out to eat and not eat the spinach I think I

        saw someone (joker?) talking about earlier, with dinner.....saved a family from E. coli! I'll bet you didn't think of it that way rdgrnr Big Smile What a lady

        you got there! Effecting lives across state lines.

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          Posted: April 7, 2010, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

          Thanks ca-dreamin!

          Another thing that kinda goes into the whole "butterfly effect" discussion, is the topic of hindsight bias. From wisegeek.com:

          Hindsight bias is a documented psychological phenomenon in which people exaggerate the predictability of an event after it has already happened. Some psychologists refer to hindsight bias as the “I knew that was going to happen” effect. You can probably find a few examples of hindsight bias in a pub after a major sports event, with people claiming that the outcome was obvious and predictable. The hindsight bias is one of many such biases, and according to a study performed by the American Psychological Association in 2000, the hindsight bias actually helps people think more clearly sometimes, by helping the brain to retain correct and relevant information rather than incorrect information.

          You can probably think of a few examples of hindsight bias in your life, especially if phrases like “hindsight is also 20/20” and “I told you so!” sound familiar to you. Hindsight bias works in a number of ways, and it is especially important to take hindsight bias into account in criminal cases, because a witness may not be strictly accurate, since he or she may be influenced by hindsight bias, along with a number of other biases which can influence the way someone's brain restores and recalls information.

          A classic example of a hindsight bias occurs when someone claims that his or her prediction about an event was more significant that it really was. For example, someone might generally observe that “it looks like rain in the future,” given his or her general knowledge of local weather patterns. If it rains shortly after this statement is made, the person might feel that the prediction was stronger than it really was. Incorrect or inaccurate predictions tend not to be remembered as well as vaguely correct predictions, reinforcing the idea in someone's mind that his or her predictive skills are better than they really are.

          In a specific phenomenon called vaticinium ex eventu, someone makes an extremely vague statement about an event which might occur, and then turns that statement into a solid prediction after the event has occurred. This is sometimes scathingly called “postdiction.” Many examples of vague predictions which were later thought to be more important than they actually were can be found in Greek mythology, where the cryptic oracles make blanket statements which could easily be said to be predictive of a great number of events.

          Along with several other biases documented in psychology, the hindsight bias is caused by something known as an availability heuristic. Essentially, people make assessments about things on the basis of information which they can bring readily to mind, although this may not be the most scientific way to base such an assessment. For example, someone might visit a particular franchise in a fast food chain and note that all of the patrons there are overweight. He or she might then say that all patrons of that chain are overweight, on the basis of this single example. In the case of hindsight bias, people turn a few vague statements into solid predictions, and assume that an event like the outcome of a Presidential election is predictable on the basis of their experiences.


          And from Wikipedia:

          Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine. In psychological experiments of hindsight bias, subjects also tend to remember their predictions of future events as having been stronger than they actually were, in those cases where those predictions turn out correct. This inaccurate assessment of reality after it has occurred is also referred to as “creeping determinism”.

          Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as vaticinium ex eventu.

          One explanation of the bias is the availability heuristic: the event that did occur is more salient in one's mind than the possible outcomes that did not.

          It has been shown that examining possible alternatives may reduce the effects of this bias.

          I've never heard of "hindsight bias" but I understand what it's saying.

          In the book 11:11 The Time Prompt Phenomenon they took an example of 9/11 and after the fact how different things related to that event added up in one way or another to those numbers.  The book also gives a few other examples but again after the fact.

          You did bring up an interesting thought and who are we to say it can't or doesn't happen.

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            Posted: April 8, 2010, 8:55 am - IP Logged

            NAME NAMES!!!!...

            Let us start with the one who needs a brain!!!

            forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

            Now, does it count??

             

             

            *Jr$ina

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              Posted: April 8, 2010, 10:58 am - IP Logged

              Let us start with the one who needs a brain!!!

              And still no name??..

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                Posted: April 8, 2010, 11:22 am - IP Logged

                And still no name??..

                I am for Peace, and getting them to the bank ,  they are for War   Argue now who could that be!!!!

                forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

                Now, does it count??

                 

                 

                *Jr$ina

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                  Posted: April 8, 2010, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

                  LOL!!

                  Well, if I get the jist of this thread then, burning dinner in Idaho would move the family to go out to eat and not eat the spinach I think I

                  saw someone (joker?) talking about earlier, with dinner.....saved a family from E. coli! I'll bet you didn't think of it that way rdgrnr Big Smile What a lady

                  you got there! Effecting lives across state lines.

                  Lol.hahaha..What a Woman!!!

                  forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

                  Now, does it count??

                   

                   

                  *Jr$ina

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                    Posted: April 8, 2010, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

                    What does it change, specifically? I mean, outside of you driving to the local corner store, grocery store, etc. and giving the clerk your tickets /money, what happens??? They take your money after your selections/QP's have been played, give you your tickets, and tell you good luck. You're now in the running, along with everyone else in the world who played, to win on the game you played.

                    The people in the store are from various "walks of the day" i.e just got off work, going to work maybe, passing through to get a cold brewski, getting gas, cigs, and you name it it's being done. None of this has anything to do with playing numbers unless a conversation strikes up regarding numbers and someone has won there before which may promt others to try their hand on Pick 3 or a scratch-off.

                    I mean, I've really been trying to make something out of this and see what you're getting at. But, I can't. Also, a person can't know if they would've won unless they have a specific list of numbers which they play faithfully and see them drawn...after having not played them. This cannot apply to QP's in any way whatsoever.

                    If I'm missing something here, please let me know. I honestly enjoy learning new things.

                     

                    L.L.

                     

                    I'm 100% with Guru on this one. Of course we can never really be positive about the actual difference, because we only see (some of) the one set of occurrences that actually happen, but lets' start by considering what we can be sure of.

                    In one  timeline I go and buy a MM ticket later this afternoon. In another imaginary timeline I don't. Here's a partial list of things that I know will be different in that other timeline. I don't open and close the car door, so I don't create minor disturbances in the air (pretty much the starting point for the butterfly effect theory). I don't use the stored energy from the battery to start the car, so I don't increase the universe's entropy. I don't pull out of the driveway and change the flow of traffic. Down the road at the 4 way stop the order in which every other driver proceeds is changed. They all get where they're going at a slightly different time, and their effect on every other motorist is slightly different. Those motorists affect other people slightly differently, and the ripple spreads. At the store I won't be opening the door. Maybe that  affects somebody else going in or out. I won't be standing on line, so somebody else gets waited on sooner. They leave and get somewhere else sooner, affecting traffic as they go.  The clerk has an extra minute of time to do something else. The lottery terminal  doesn't read my play slip, and it doesn't send a message to the central computer at lottery HQ. Less electricity gets used, again resulting in less increase in entropy. The computer at HQ doesn't create a record of the numbers I would have played. When that database gets backed up it's different, and all entries that are no longer after mine get written to a different location. Again, less electricty is used and I've changed the entropy of the entire universe.

                    Meanwhile, I'm at home doing something else. Maybe it's posting here, and maybe that changes who reads what. Maybe it means several of you read for an extra  minute, and buy your own tickets at a different time. Now I've changed your lives and the lives of everyone you subsequently come into contact with. The ripples continue to spread.

                    It's easy to say that some things won't change: The Earth will continue to revolve at the same rate, the tides and phases of the moon will be the same, and it will still take 365.242 days to orbit the sun and get back to where we are now. Gravity and the speed of light aren't going to change, because those are things that are fixed by physical laws. In reality, some of them actually are changing, albeit very slowly. Eventually the rotation of the earth will slow to the point that the moon will orbit  it in one (much longer) day. The weight of the water impounded by the Three Gorges Dam will affect the rotation of the Earth, slowing it slightly. The effect is extremely small, but  driving your car to a different elevation or a different distance from the equator also has a (very small) effect on the Earth's rotation. I can't think of any reason that rates of atomic decay would change even  in the least, but I can't easily think of many things where I dont see a valid reason for at least some change.

                    Again, we're only guessing about some of the possible differences, but let's consider the things that might be the same. Why does anyone expect them to be the same? What's the rational argumentfor that? We're considering hypothetical events, so why would anyone assume  they should be the same  in some other timeline with so many other differences? In our hypothetical we know with absolute certainty that many things are different, so how is there any logical basis for thinking that so many other things that could be different won't be? You're simply assuming that unless you can exlain why the change comes about that there is no change. Unless you think that lottery results are somehow preordained I don'tsee any reason to think that they are somehow exempt from the extremely long list of things that would, or could, change.

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                      Posted: April 8, 2010, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

                      Lol.hahaha..What a Woman!!!

                      LOL jrosina! I thought that was so funny about the dinner in another state! rdgrnr is keeping us all healthy here and I'll bet he doesn't even know

                      it.

                      He's brings laughter everyday into these threads...a lot of it. I love it! His sense of humor is priceless.

                      Big Smile

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                        Posted: April 8, 2010, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

                        I am for Peace, and getting them to the bank ,  they are for War   Argue now who could that be!!!!

                        Who are these two people shouting at eachother??..The brain love the comment about tiggs not being able to put on a sox..:):)..Cute..tiggs is having a hard time getting to the bank it seems you need winning numbers to get in the front door..What's up good looking?..Did you tell ridge runner off like you would tiggs when he said he has put his "faith" in Rick G??..Bet you diden't..

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                          Posted: April 8, 2010, 4:40 pm - IP Logged

                          LOL jrosina! I thought that was so funny about the dinner in another state! rdgrnr is keeping us all healthy here and I'll bet he doesn't even know

                          it.

                          He's brings laughter everyday into these threads...a lot of it. I love it! His sense of humor is priceless.

                          Big Smile

                          HaHA..Yes!  That is why a week or so when I didn't see him I really worried, I surpriced myself you know dr,  I find myself caring for people here!!

                          forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

                          Now, does it count??

                           

                           

                          *Jr$ina

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                            Posted: April 8, 2010, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                            HaHA..Yes!  That is why a week or so when I didn't see him I really worried, I surpriced myself you know dr,  I find myself caring for people here!!

                            tiggs says thank you jrosina..:)...

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                              Posted: April 8, 2010, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                              Who are these two people shouting at eachother??..The brain love the comment about tiggs not being able to put on a sox..:):)..Cute..tiggs is having a hard time getting to the bank it seems you need winning numbers to get in the front door..What's up good looking?..Did you tell ridge runner off like you would tiggs when he said he has put his "faith" in Rick G??..Bet you diden't..

                              rd and I  kissed and made up, you know what a Honey jar he is!Lovies 

                              and  you will stand infront of the teller with KY State Lottery Check in

                              Hand and watch how suddenly and like magic, you become Mr. His royalty

                              highness Mr. Tiggs!! Tiggs It's Inevitable!!

                              forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

                              Now, does it count??

                               

                               

                              *Jr$ina