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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: September 27, 2012, 9:10 pm - IP Logged

If you're not sure why then why do you accept it as a fact?  Has Stack actually reduced a 28 numbers wheel by 95% and matched 5 of 5?

Every time Ronnie matched five numbers, I entered his 28 numbers into various wheels using the same order he posted. And when he matched five numbers plus the bonus number, there was a five number match using a 4931 combo 4 if 4 covermaster wheel. While 4931 combos are not exactly a 95% reduction, maybe I should said a 94.98% reduction. 

I know there is only one five number match in 5/28 matrix and some calculate the odds of 4931 combos matching five numbers as 98,280 to 4931 or 20 to 1, but when a 4 if 4 wheel matches five numbers, there are multiple four number matches. Any combination of 5 numbers produces  5 four number matches so the odds are 23 to 5 or 4.6 to 1. Because 4931 combos is not the minimum number of combos to get a 28 number 4 if 4 guarantee, it's possible to have more than 5 four number matches and reducing the odds even more. This 4 if 4 should average 6 four number matches when five of the numbers are drawn have a 1 in 3.83 chance.

I'm not saying I have a group of 28 numbers, a method to create a group that gets a 1 in 15 matching five number ratio, or am I playing 4931 combos, but just saying it's mathematically probable to break even or show a small profit using this method.

The object of using any 2 if 2, 3 if 3, 3 if 4, or 4 if 4 wheel is to match five, exceed the wheel guarantee, and possibly have a five number match. There are 10 three number matches in any combination of five numbers so a 3 if 3 wheel has 10 three number matches when five of the numbers are drawn. That's 20 chances that one of the two "extra" numbers drawn out of 25 will be with one of the three number matches creating a four number match. Odds of 23 to 20 makes having a four number match an almost even money bet.

The 2 if 2 wheel Ronnie is using has 10 two number matches when five numbers are drawn so he has 30 chances of matching three numbers. With odds of 23 to 30, that wheel is basically a 3 if 5 guarantee. The overall odds of 40 to 1 in MM are based on the chances of matching one of 40 bonus numbers, so if Ronnie uses 41 bonus numbers, winning something when matching zero numbers is almost a lock. A 46 combo 2 if 2 would guarantee it.

Considering the average MM player's wager is $5 or less, suggesting getting a better chance by playing $41 doesn't help them any and talking about wagering considerably more is useless info to them. Playing a 2 if 5 of 56 number wheel once a month is a better bet than $5 a drawing.

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    Posted: September 27, 2012, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

    This brings up a question for   RJOh,

    Is it mathematically correct that any random 35 numbers would match 5 of 5 around 10% of the time??

    The probability of any group of 35 numbers is 8.5% so the probability of a group with one more five number match every 100 drawings is around 10%.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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      Posted: September 27, 2012, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

      This brings up a question for   RJOh,

      Is it mathematically correct that any random 35 numbers would match 5 of 5 around 10% of the time??

      35 numbers can cover 324,632 combinations of five which is 8.5% of the 3,819,816 combinations that 56 numbers cover.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
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        Posted: September 27, 2012, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

        Absolutely right Stack, thanks for explaining all this again. It is amazing how many times people need to hear it before the "light comes on". (including myself) 

        Its hard for some people to comprehend an alternative (BETTER ODDS) to QPs (or a hand full of lines) here and there that are going to be the full 1 in 174 million odds every single line they play.

        I was just looking at the LP 2 if 5 of 56 wheel which is 46 lines and at least has the promise of getting the bonus number if all 46 bonus numbers are played.

        By posting the 2 if 2 wheel I'm using, it gives the order of input for the numbers. I just started a new idea today of playing a second 2 if 2 wheel with a random input of the numbers. I would rather put extra money on a LP wheel for MM with BETTER ODDS than on QP PB tickets.


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          Posted: September 27, 2012, 9:48 pm - IP Logged

          35 numbers can cover 324,632 combinations of five which is 8.5% of the 3,819,816 combinations that 56 numbers cover.

          Thanks  RJOh and Stack, that is very close to what I expected. I asked because the count I did of the 200 draws that   RJOh posted showed about 20 of those hits, so the recent activity is just a bit above average. 

          I did notice that there were runs of 20 draws whithout a 5 of 5 hit, twice in those 200 draws so there may be some opportunity for a timing play at the end of a dry spell.

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: September 27, 2012, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

            RJ

            I tried Ronnie's method on PB and did not have much success but then I got the idea to generate

            enough random sets to add to the current matrix to bring it up to 1000 draws.  I then ran the

            program I created based on Ronnie's methods and thought you be interested in the results.

             This single set of 28 numbers hit 5ea 5of5's in the last 12 draws.  I have the start point set to 13

            so the 12 most recent draws are not used in the calculations. 

            RL

            rons-pb

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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              Posted: September 28, 2012, 12:02 am - IP Logged

              Hi All

              I think I just seen an error, I have to check to see if the check sets is using the 34 instead of the 28.

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                Posted: September 28, 2012, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                There was an error on one number just hitting one digit, here is the fixed version which is still very good

                pb2

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                  Posted: September 28, 2012, 2:18 am - IP Logged

                  I just noticed this is loading my 5-39 database instead of PB, don't have a clue how that happened.

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                    Posted: September 28, 2012, 10:15 am - IP Logged

                    I just noticed this is loading my 5-39 database instead of PB, don't have a clue how that happened.

                    RL

                    Sounds like you have some debugging to do.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: September 28, 2012, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

                      RJ

                      I tried Ronnie's method on PB and did not have much success but then I got the idea to generate

                      enough random sets to add to the current matrix to bring it up to 1000 draws.  I then ran the

                      program I created based on Ronnie's methods and thought you be interested in the results.

                       This single set of 28 numbers hit 5ea 5of5's in the last 12 draws.  I have the start point set to 13

                      so the 12 most recent draws are not used in the calculations. 

                      RL

                      rons-pb

                      If all those extra randomly generated lines got better results, why have any real historical data at all?

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: September 28, 2012, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

                        Sounds like you have some debugging to do.

                        RJ

                         

                        The error was caused by a line that was not removed, when I build something like this I rem out the

                        user inputs and use fixed values for testing the code it's self.  I used my 5-39 as default file name and 

                        when I built the last version I missed deleting the fixed file name so whatever name I entered was changed

                        back to the mo539.  All I had to do was delete the line of code.  Sorry for the mistake.  I really think more

                        can be done with Ron's methods but only time will tell.  I won't have time to work on it for a few weeks. 

                        It did spark an idea for simple method of removing numbers from play that seems to show promise but still

                        in the testing stages.   The random data is as random as the draw data and I don't see where it makes any

                        difference placed at the end of a file.  Since most of my analysis is matrix based and the history is just a way

                        to monitor how well the actual draws follow the expected then it's even less important.  What we are reallly

                        working on is the randomness of the draw by trying to predict the frequency.  I do have a few options that

                        work based on historical data and the function better with more data actual or generated.

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                          Posted: September 28, 2012, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

                          Here is one for Stack to help me explain,

                          I would rather save up my money and play a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel ONCE, than play a 2 if 2 of 28 wheel 120 times.

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                            Posted: September 28, 2012, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

                            Absolutely right Stack, thanks for explaining all this again. It is amazing how many times people need to hear it before the "light comes on". (including myself) 

                            Its hard for some people to comprehend an alternative (BETTER ODDS) to QPs (or a hand full of lines) here and there that are going to be the full 1 in 174 million odds every single line they play.

                            I was just looking at the LP 2 if 5 of 56 wheel which is 46 lines and at least has the promise of getting the bonus number if all 46 bonus numbers are played.

                            By posting the 2 if 2 wheel I'm using, it gives the order of input for the numbers. I just started a new idea today of playing a second 2 if 2 wheel with a random input of the numbers. I would rather put extra money on a LP wheel for MM with BETTER ODDS than on QP PB tickets.

                            Though I occasionally play QPs when the jackpots are high, I've always thought I could get better results picking my own numbers. Maybe it's a phobia I developed when Ohio first started lotto type games when they said "the machine can pick your numbers". It made me think I had to beat the 10 million to 1 plus odds that the machine would pick the right combo that matched another 10 plus million to 1 actual drawing.

                            When the Arizona Lottery machine gave out two duplicate sets of combos, they called it a glitch and I believe that means the machines aren't suppose to duplicate sold combinations. If that's true, the combos the machines pick "for us" are not from all the 175 million plus combos, but from the lessor number of unsold combos.

                            I've played the 2 if 5 wheel a couple of times and the best I had was a 2 + 1 match. Regardless of the bad results, it's still a fact the only thing preventing any player from matching five numbers is the order they enter all 56 numbers into the wheel and how they place the bonus numbers to win the jackpot. When Pumpi talked about how a Star Trek type "super computer" could always match the MM or PB winning numbers, it's possible if it could sort the extremely large number of possible orders into the correct order. Pumpi never explained how he thought it could match the five with the bonus numbers or how many lines needed to be played. 

                            Since we don't have a super computer that can sort the possible "7.1099858780486345185404564746372e+74" orders, it's back to the drawing board.


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                              Posted: September 28, 2012, 9:46 pm - IP Logged

                              When the glitch took place in AZ it wasn't just a random duplication of numbers. It was a player buying a large number of QP tickets for a group and the terminal spit out 2 tickets exactly the same for all 5 lines and all 5 bonus numbers. They never actually said if both tickets were valid but I assumed they were.

                              I really don't think it would be necessary for the software to avoid making duplicates as there are way too many combination to be of concern.

                                 
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