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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Kentucky
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Posted: September 26, 2012, 10:37 am - IP Logged

Ronnie has a 40 times better chance of winning a than a $41 QP player has.

That can be tested by picking a $41 QP file and comparing the results of the two files.

Before this becomes another QP vs Self pick debate, I'm going to clarify; Ronnie has a 40 times better chance of matching five numbers than a player buying 41 QPs when five of his 28 numbers are drawn. It should be no mystery when less than five numbers are drawn, he has zero chance. A 2 if 2 basically becomes a 3 if 5 wheel when five numbers are drawn because he has at least ten chances to match ten of the three number matches.

When five of Ronnie's 28 numbers are drawn, the odds of having a five number match are 98,280 to 41 or 2397 to 1. The odds of 41 QPs having a five number match are 3,819,816 to 41 or 93,166 to 1. I don't know what you're trying to compare because there should always be one group of 41 QPs having a five number match for every 3.9 million QPs sold.


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    Posted: September 26, 2012, 11:38 am - IP Logged

    Exactly how I interpreted your original post Stack.

    There is no mystery about it....... The BETTER ODDS go right back to getting 5 if 5 of 28 in LESS THAN 39 draws...........

    I can go 38 draws with zero chance of winning and still MATCH the odds of QP tickets by have all 5 winning numbers (in a group of 28) on the 39th draw.


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      Posted: September 26, 2012, 11:49 am - IP Logged

      RJOh hit 4+0

      Ronnie hit 4+0


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        Posted: September 26, 2012, 11:57 am - IP Logged

        Ronnie

        Here's my 28. these are randomly generated numbers but have been sorted.  I will let them ride for the next

        30 games and see how they do.

        01 02 04 08 12 15 17 18 19 20 24 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 36 37 45 46 47 48 50 52 54

        RL

        Interesting that you chose random numbers RL, as they seem to have a tendency to do extremely poor in terms of getting BETTER ODDS....... (I use random numbers for eliminations)

        Please submit a single bonus number for your set to be a valid MM play......

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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          Posted: September 26, 2012, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

          Ronnie

          Just running a test as these numbers have hit 5of5 35 times in the last 736 draws.  I want to see how many

          times they will hit in the next 30 draws.  Nothing special about them with the exception of the past hit rate.

          I was able to find another group that has hit 37 5of5's and may post it also.  Not competing here just a good

          place to keep a count.  Have you posted your methods of selecting your numbers and is it something that is

          consistent draw to draw or do you just study the data and make your best choices, either way I still say it's

          exceptional.  You will need to hit the BB to make a profit but once is enough to put you over the top for a long

          time.  Keep it up

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: September 26, 2012, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

            I also agree that random is maybe the best removal tool that we have,  I have ran many test where

            equal amounts of good vs bad elements within a string of data.  Give a person this data and ask them

            to try and select the one or the other and they will pick the wrong ones most often regardless of which

            they are  trying to select.   I am going to run a few test where I generate a bunch of random sets then

            make a count of how many times each number exist in the randomly generated sets and then remove 

            the 36 most hitting numbers and see how it does.  This would reduce the pool to 20 numbers.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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              Posted: September 26, 2012, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

              Ronnie

              Currently  I am working on a similar method for choosing my groups for MM.  Since I know the probability

              or the expected number of correct matches for each string randomly generated then if I generate several

              strings of groups and look at the overall totals then I can select the most probable based on population an

              distribution.  If to many samples are used then they average out so one has to generate two list, the second

              is a random sample taken from the first so that a bias is formed.

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                Posted: September 26, 2012, 12:47 pm - IP Logged

                 How to pick the numbers is up to the player...... the object is the hit 5 of 5 with 28 numbers as often as possible (every 39 draws is the stated lottery odds)

                Most people leave one set in play for ease of participation.... I have started changing my numbers every draw based on the past 35 most recently drawn numbers (and eliminating 7) 

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: September 26, 2012, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

                  Im throwing some PB number out there, even though Im not planning on playing live Wed. Sept 26.

                  01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 11 16 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 28 33 34 36 40 43 46 50 51 54 56

                  bonus ball 08

                  Don't feel bad if all 5 winning PB numbers for tonight's drawing are in this group and you didn't play.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       


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                    Posted: September 26, 2012, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                    Don't feel bad if all 5 winning PB numbers for tonight's drawing are in this group and you didn't play.

                    LOL. Playing a 2 if 2 wheel, what are the odds that I will be disappointed?......  lol. lol.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: September 26, 2012, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

                      LOL. Playing a 2 if 2 wheel, what are the odds that I will be disappointed?......  lol. lol.

                      I can't say since I'm not into wheeling, Stack is the one that calculates the odds of winning by wheeling.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       


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                        Posted: September 26, 2012, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

                        Don't feel bad if all 5 winning PB numbers for tonight's drawing are in this group and you didn't play.

                        If I took the $82. required to play 41 lines on PB, and added it to the 41 MM lines, I could play 123 lines!!

                        (I added that up all by myself)

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: September 26, 2012, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

                          If I took the $82. required to play 41 lines on PB, and added it to the 41 MM lines, I could play 123 lines!!

                          (I added that up all by myself)

                          I would never play more lines than it took to play every powerball once 'cause I'm not into wheeling.  I haven't  picked my lines yet but I usually play ten and I may use the $4 win from Saturday to play 2 extra ones.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       


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                            Posted: September 26, 2012, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                            I think playing a variety of bonus numbers is throwing chances away. Having the bonus number on the wrong line is the same as having a losing number.

                            I may talk myself into 5-10 QP lines (and perhaps a "Donald" line or two) but I will play the 8 ball on all lines.

                            Either I hit the bonus number or I don't.

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                              Posted: September 26, 2012, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

                              I think playing a variety of bonus numbers is throwing chances away. Having the bonus number on the wrong line is the same as having a losing number.

                              I may talk myself into 5-10 QP lines (and perhaps a "Donald" line or two) but I will play the 8 ball on all lines.

                              Either I hit the bonus number or I don't.

                              Hey, Ronnie you never know when it comes to random.

                              The $14M Mega Millions jackpot of 9/18/12 was won with a free play in New York City.You would have to buy a $10 MM ticket to get the $2 free play ticket.

                              The winner has some money in the bank. That's what you call playing the lottery to win. I feel that the winner only spent $10 to get the winning $2 free play ticket.

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                              PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                                 
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