Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 7, 2016, 5:07 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

Page 96 of 353
4.820
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 20, 2012, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

Nice work RL.

    Avatar
    New Member

    United States
    Member #132576
    September 6, 2012
    3 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 20, 2012, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

     Once the winners are contained in 28 numbers.............. playing the 2 if 2 wheel produces a 1 in 2000 chance (41 lines) and playing the the 4 if 4 wheel (4931 lines) produces a mind blowing 1 in 4 chance.

    How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19827 Posts
      Online
      Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

      How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

      *Note: You are assuming all 5 winning numbers are in the wheel

      You calculate the possible combinations of 5's in group of 28 numbers and divide that by number of combinations of 5's in your wheel.  Do the same for 3's and 4's.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3971 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

        How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

        winkle23

        I will take a shot at this, with 28 numbers you have a possible 98,280 possible 5 number combinations.

        If the winning 5 are somewhere in these 28 your odds for a 5of5 would be 1 in 98,280.  If you play 41 

        lines then your odds for a 5of5 are 1 in 2397.  Each set of 5 numbers has 10 possible combinations of 2

        and there are 378 combinations of 2 in 28.  Since each 5 number set has 10 combos of 2 then we can divide

        378/10 =37.8  so odds for a  2 of 5 match will be 1 in 37.8 for each line you play.  There are also 10 com-

        binations of 3 numbers in each 5 number set and 3276 combinations of 3 in 28 numbers.  This gives us

        odds of 1 in 3276/10 or 1 in 327.6 for each line played for a 3of5.  Next, there are 5 combinations of 4 in

        every 5 numbers and 20,475 combinations of 4 in 28.  20475 / 5 = 4095 so the odds for a 4of5 are 1 in

        4095 for each line played.  Hope this helps

        PS. It is not always possible to arrange all the numbers so that every possible combo is covered and this

             is what the wheels attempt to do in the fewest possible sets. 

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          Avatar
          New Member

          United States
          Member #132576
          September 6, 2012
          3 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

          Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

           

          Combin(28,5) = 98,280

          The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19827 Posts
            Online
            Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

            Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

             

            Combin(28,5) = 98,280

            The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

            That's fine for combinations of 5's because you can assume your wheel doesn't duplicate any combinations of five but there are probably duplicates of some of the combinations of threes and fours so you'll have to count them to be sure you have as many different ones as you think you have.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
              March 13, 2008
              3971 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

              Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

               

              Combin(28,5) = 98,280

              The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

              winkie23

              Odds for each based on 5 numbers being in the 28 played and playing 41 lines

               

              5of5 = 1 in 2397

              4of5 = 1 in 99.8

              3of5 = 1 in 7.99

              2of5 = 1.8 in 1

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                Avatar
                New Member

                United States
                Member #132576
                September 6, 2012
                3 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks a lot.  I knew that 1 in 80 to get 3 of 5 didn't seem right.


                  United States
                  Member #116268
                  September 7, 2011
                  20244 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Thanks a lot.  I knew that 1 in 80 to get 3 of 5 didn't seem right.

                  In answer to your question about smaller groups....... yes, it is more likely to get a better win but much more difficult to get all 5. I have tried the set of 9, set of 12, set of 20, and all are futile in the 5/56 game.

                  I did get all 5 in a set of 20 playing my AZ Fantacy 5/41 game and in 21 lines had 3 lines with 3 of 5 and 2 lines with 2 of 5. So it is worth considering on the smaller games, but I have not duplicated getting 5.

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
                    Member #59354
                    March 13, 2008
                    3971 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

                    In answer to your question about smaller groups....... yes, it is more likely to get a better win but much more difficult to get all 5. I have tried the set of 9, set of 12, set of 20, and all are futile in the 5/56 game.

                    I did get all 5 in a set of 20 playing my AZ Fantacy 5/41 game and in 21 lines had 3 lines with 3 of 5 and 2 lines with 2 of 5. So it is worth considering on the smaller games, but I have not duplicated getting 5.

                    Ronnie316

                    Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

                    The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

                    it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

                    come up with. 

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

                      Ronnie316

                      Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

                      The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

                      it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

                      come up with. 

                      RL

                      Sounds good RL, Im working on doing the exact same routine every draw for the purpose of creating a consistent 5 of 5 every 10 -15 draws. If this can be achieved it is believed (by Stack and myself) that a break even playing situation can be achieved without hitting a jackpot.

                      The down side will be the required 4931 lines each draw for as many draws as it takes to have 5 of 5 on a ticket. It would need to hit within 50 draws for break even. 

                      Of course the objective is to hit a jackpot.


                        United States
                        Member #116268
                        September 7, 2011
                        20244 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:04 am - IP Logged

                        Ronnie316

                        Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

                        The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

                        it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

                        come up with. 

                        RL

                        I do need a way to create a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel for tracking purposes. Other than that, the only thing preventing me from playing the lines is being able to produce and print the play slips.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19827 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:21 am - IP Logged

                          I do need a way to create a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel for tracking purposes. Other than that, the only thing preventing me from playing the lines is being able to produce and print the play slips.

                          I thought you already had a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel when you suggested that strategy but if you don't, you can create one with CoverMaster.   Once you have run a simulation a few times, you might decide overall the smaller wheels are better.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19827 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:37 am - IP Logged

                            Ronnie316

                            Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

                            The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

                            it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

                            come up with. 

                            RL

                            I originally only looked at number of previous drawings, it was Ronnie's idea to look at position of numbers in a list so I came up with that chart but after looking at the two different charts, I couldn't decide which was better so I combined them and now I have position of the numbers in the list and drawing it occurred next to it.  The following is for the last 20 MegaMillion drawings.

                             

                            12/09/18  6/ 2   10/ 2   23/ 6   28/ 7   55/35 
                            12/09/14 11/ 3   16/ 4   38/13   42/15   51/27 
                            12/09/11 21/ 6   23/ 6   25/ 6   33/ 9   46/18 
                            12/09/07  2/ 1   16/ 4   27/ 7   32/ 8   35/ 9 
                            12/09/04  3/ 1   24/ 6   32/ 8   47/19   48/20 
                            12/08/31  3/ 1   30/ 7   34/ 9   54/35   55/36 
                            12/08/28  3/ 1   32/ 9   34/10   36/11   48/21 
                            12/08/24 11/ 3   24/ 6   36/11   42/16   56/52 
                            12/08/21  2/ 1    7/ 2   18/ 4   22/ 5   24/ 6 
                            12/08/17 25/ 6   35/10   38/12   40/12   56/74 
                            12/08/14 28/ 8   34/10   38/11   39/13   49/23 
                            12/08/10  7/ 2    9/ 2   12/ 3   22/ 6   34/ 9 
                            12/08/07 18/ 5   39/13   41/14   46/18   54/31 
                            12/08/03  6/ 2   12/ 3   13/ 3   20/ 5   38/12 
                            12/07/31  6/ 2   17/ 4   40/13   46/18   54/34 
                            12/07/27  6/ 2   19/ 5   28/ 7   37/12   48/19 
                            12/07/24 14/ 3   37/12   41/15   48/22   50/25 
                            12/07/20 20/ 5   33/11   36/11   37/12   54/33 
                            12/07/17  3/ 1   23/ 8   37/12   45/17   52/26 
                            12/07/13 11/ 3   35/12   43/19   54/46   56/68 
                            12/07/10  2/ 1    6/ 2    9/ 2   16/ 5   18/ 6 

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:48 am - IP Logged

                              Does it mean that Tues. draw only used 35 numbers??


                              Tuesday, September 18, 2012
                              05 · 09 · 22 · 36 · 49    363$15 Million
                              Friday, September 14, 201216 · 17 · 21 · 40 · 51    204$12 Million
                              Tuesday, September 11, 201205 · 11 · 20 · 33 · 36    113$120 Million
                              Friday, September 07, 201215 · 32 · 38 · 42 · 46    314$105 Million
                              Tuesday, September 04, 201216 · 32 · 39 · 41 · 53    163$93 Million
                              Friday, August 31, 201231 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48    45
                                 
                                Page 96 of 353