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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

Nice work RL.

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

Once the winners are contained in 28 numbers.............. playing the 2 if 2 wheel produces a 1 in 2000 chance (41 lines) and playing the the 4 if 4 wheel (4931 lines) produces a mind blowing 1 in 4 chance.

How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

*Note: You are assuming all 5 winning numbers are in the wheel

You calculate the possible combinations of 5's in group of 28 numbers and divide that by number of combinations of 5's in your wheel.  Do the same for 3's and 4's.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

How do you know what the odds of getting 3, 4, 5 when playing a 2 if 2 of 28?  I had all 5 in that wheel last pb draw and had one 2+0, that's it.  I'm pretty new to this and trying to figure out if the 2 of 28 is the best chance or if a bigger guarantee with a smaller number set is the way to go.  I don't want to play more than 25 lines on pb or 50 on mm.  Thanks!

winkle23

I will take a shot at this, with 28 numbers you have a possible 98,280 possible 5 number combinations.

If the winning 5 are somewhere in these 28 your odds for a 5of5 would be 1 in 98,280.  If you play 41

lines then your odds for a 5of5 are 1 in 2397.  Each set of 5 numbers has 10 possible combinations of 2

and there are 378 combinations of 2 in 28.  Since each 5 number set has 10 combos of 2 then we can divide

378/10 =37.8  so odds for a  2 of 5 match will be 1 in 37.8 for each line you play.  There are also 10 com-

binations of 3 numbers in each 5 number set and 3276 combinations of 3 in 28 numbers.  This gives us

odds of 1 in 3276/10 or 1 in 327.6 for each line played for a 3of5.  Next, there are 5 combinations of 4 in

every 5 numbers and 20,475 combinations of 4 in 28.  20475 / 5 = 4095 so the odds for a 4of5 are 1 in

4095 for each line played.  Hope this helps

PS. It is not always possible to arrange all the numbers so that every possible combo is covered and this

is what the wheels attempt to do in the fewest possible sets.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

Combin(28,5) = 98,280

The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

Combin(28,5) = 98,280

The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

That's fine for combinations of 5's because you can assume your wheel doesn't duplicate any combinations of five but there are probably duplicates of some of the combinations of threes and fours so you'll have to count them to be sure you have as many different ones as you think you have.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

Thanks RJ.  Did I do this right?

Combin(28,5) = 98,280

The 2 of 28 wheel here on LP is 41 lines so Ihave 1/2,397 odds of 5, 1 in 499 for 4 and 1 in 80 to hit 3 when all 5 are in my 28 wheel numbers?  I'm shocked it's only 1 in 80 to get three when all 5 arepicked correctly. That seems pretty horrible

winkie23

Odds for each based on 5 numbers being in the 28 played and playing 41 lines

5of5 = 1 in 2397

4of5 = 1 in 99.8

3of5 = 1 in 7.99

2of5 = 1.8 in 1

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

Thanks a lot.  I knew that 1 in 80 to get 3 of 5 didn't seem right.

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

Thanks a lot.  I knew that 1 in 80 to get 3 of 5 didn't seem right.

In answer to your question about smaller groups....... yes, it is more likely to get a better win but much more difficult to get all 5. I have tried the set of 9, set of 12, set of 20, and all are futile in the 5/56 game.

I did get all 5 in a set of 20 playing my AZ Fantacy 5/41 game and in 21 lines had 3 lines with 3 of 5 and 2 lines with 2 of 5. So it is worth considering on the smaller games, but I have not duplicated getting 5.

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

In answer to your question about smaller groups....... yes, it is more likely to get a better win but much more difficult to get all 5. I have tried the set of 9, set of 12, set of 20, and all are futile in the 5/56 game.

I did get all 5 in a set of 20 playing my AZ Fantacy 5/41 game and in 21 lines had 3 lines with 3 of 5 and 2 lines with 2 of 5. So it is worth considering on the smaller games, but I have not duplicated getting 5.

Ronnie316

Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

come up with.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

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 Posted: September 20, 2012, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

Ronnie316

Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

come up with.

RL

Sounds good RL, Im working on doing the exact same routine every draw for the purpose of creating a consistent 5 of 5 every 10 -15 draws. If this can be achieved it is believed (by Stack and myself) that a break even playing situation can be achieved without hitting a jackpot.

The down side will be the required 4931 lines each draw for as many draws as it takes to have 5 of 5 on a ticket. It would need to hit within 50 draws for break even.

Of course the objective is to hit a jackpot.

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 Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:04 am - IP Logged

Ronnie316

Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

come up with.

RL

I do need a way to create a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel for tracking purposes. Other than that, the only thing preventing me from playing the lines is being able to produce and print the play slips.

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:21 am - IP Logged

I do need a way to create a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel for tracking purposes. Other than that, the only thing preventing me from playing the lines is being able to produce and print the play slips.

I thought you already had a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel when you suggested that strategy but if you don't, you can create one with CoverMaster.   Once you have run a simulation a few times, you might decide overall the smaller wheels are better.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:37 am - IP Logged

Ronnie316

Looking at the charts RJ posted I think this could work as long as a person has the budget to play.

The odds are set so much against us that even when we find something that does give advantage

it falls short of what most can afford to spend.  I am going to dig into this more and see what I can

come up with.

RL

I originally only looked at number of previous drawings, it was Ronnie's idea to look at position of numbers in a list so I came up with that chart but after looking at the two different charts, I couldn't decide which was better so I combined them and now I have position of the numbers in the list and drawing it occurred next to it.  The following is for the last 20 MegaMillion drawings.

12/09/18  6/ 2   10/ 2   23/ 6   28/ 7   55/35
12/09/14 11/ 3   16/ 4   38/13   42/15   51/27
12/09/11 21/ 6   23/ 6   25/ 6   33/ 9   46/18
12/09/07  2/ 1   16/ 4   27/ 7   32/ 8   35/ 9
12/09/04  3/ 1   24/ 6   32/ 8   47/19   48/20
12/08/31  3/ 1   30/ 7   34/ 9   54/35   55/36
12/08/28  3/ 1   32/ 9   34/10   36/11   48/21
12/08/24 11/ 3   24/ 6   36/11   42/16   56/52
12/08/21  2/ 1    7/ 2   18/ 4   22/ 5   24/ 6
12/08/17 25/ 6   35/10   38/12   40/12   56/74
12/08/14 28/ 8   34/10   38/11   39/13   49/23
12/08/10  7/ 2    9/ 2   12/ 3   22/ 6   34/ 9
12/08/07 18/ 5   39/13   41/14   46/18   54/31
12/08/03  6/ 2   12/ 3   13/ 3   20/ 5   38/12
12/07/31  6/ 2   17/ 4   40/13   46/18   54/34
12/07/27  6/ 2   19/ 5   28/ 7   37/12   48/19
12/07/24 14/ 3   37/12   41/15   48/22   50/25
12/07/20 20/ 5   33/11   36/11   37/12   54/33
12/07/17  3/ 1   23/ 8   37/12   45/17   52/26
12/07/13 11/ 3   35/12   43/19   54/46   56/68
12/07/10  2/ 1    6/ 2    9/ 2   16/ 5   18/ 6

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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 Posted: September 21, 2012, 10:48 am - IP Logged

Does it mean that Tues. draw only used 35 numbers??

 Tuesday, September 18, 2012 05 · 09 · 22 · 36 · 49    + 36 3 \$15 Million Friday, September 14, 2012 16 · 17 · 21 · 40 · 51    + 20 4 \$12 Million Tuesday, September 11, 2012 05 · 11 · 20 · 33 · 36    + 11 3 \$120 Million Friday, September 07, 2012 15 · 32 · 38 · 42 · 46    + 31 4 \$105 Million Tuesday, September 04, 2012 16 · 32 · 39 · 41 · 53    + 16 3 \$93 Million Friday, August 31, 2012 31 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48    + 45

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