Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7314 Posts Offline

Posted: September 17, 2012, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on September 15, 2012

Proportionally, getting one five number match every 15 drawings using 28 numbers would be the same as one in 102 drawings using 20 numbers.

Are you saying there's s system a player/group of players can realistically expect to generate a five number match every 15 drawings or are you just speculating and dreaming?

The "one out of every 15" is the number five number matches that are necessary to about break even playing a 28 number 4931 combo 4 if 4 wheel. That's two five number matches every three months and at least three people did that so it's more realistic than you think. Mathematically a 4 if 4 wheel should average one five number match once out of every four times the 28 number group matches five number.

The average player probably plays $5 or less per drawing, 70% to 80% are QPs so the odds of matching 5 + 1, 5 + 0, or the odds of 40 to 1 against winning anything are irrelevant to them. For $46 anyone can play a 56 number 2 if 5 wheel with all the bonus numbers and match five numbers every drawing. The odds of getting the five number match are 84,885 to 1, but all of this is useless information to the average player.

The other day when Thrifty said he spent $20 and won nothing, I made a reasonable suggestion of how he could spend the same $20 and get a better chance of winning something, but based on his reply, I guess he would rather continue winning nothing so he can complain about it.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7314 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 2:36 pm - IP Logged

It all comes down to what should a MM player expect to win after buying 20 QPs and the answer is simple; a 50% chance to win something. After winning nothing, an optimist might say they had "a 50% chance of winning something" and a pessimist might say the had "a 50% chance of winning nothing". If the same pessimist buys $20 worth of PB tickets, they a have a 67% chance of winning nothing and a much better chance for whining about it..

The overall odds in MM of winning something are 1 in 40, but winning something doesn't mean very much after buying 40 QPs if that something is less than the cost of play. To cover the cost of play it takes at least a 3 + 1 or a 4 + 0 match. The odds against 40 QPs having a four number match are 383 to 1 and the odds against your 2 if 2 wheel having a four number match is 102 to 1 anytime your 28 number group matches four numbers and 21 to 1 when it matches five numbers.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19830 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 18, 2012

It all comes down to what should a MM player expect to win after buying 20 QPs and the answer is simple; a 50% chance to win something. After winning nothing, an optimist might say they had "a 50% chance of winning something" and a pessimist might say the had "a 50% chance of winning nothing". If the same pessimist buys $20 worth of PB tickets, they a have a 67% chance of winning nothing and a much better chance for whining about it..

The overall odds in MM of winning something are 1 in 40, but winning something doesn't mean very much after buying 40 QPs if that something is less than the cost of play. To cover the cost of play it takes at least a 3 + 1 or a 4 + 0 match. The odds against 40 QPs having a four number match are 383 to 1 and the odds against your 2 if 2 wheel having a four number match is 102 to 1 anytime your 28 number group matches four numbers and 21 to 1 when it matches five numbers.

If winning doesn't mean much unless you win more than it cost to play then your are will be disappointed every time you win unless you beat the odds of winning by 50x or more because all the prizes are less than 3% of the odds of winning.

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

Yesx1kosmic, thanks for posting. 28 numbers seems like the best chance of hitting 5 of 5 every 5 - 15 draws. We have had some luck using a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel. And I have been using a 2 if 2 of 28 wheel for live play as it is only 41 lines.

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

After stopping in on a few of the other threads and hearing people say things like "there is no such thing as a system that will improve your odds" I was sitting here doing a few simple calculations and realized this thread has done a great job of offering proof that answers the question................

By choosing a group of 28 numbers that contains the 5 winning numbers, and playing a 2 if 2 of 28 wheel I have reduded my odds from 1 in 3.8 million to 1 in 2397. Cananyonedispute this??

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on September 18, 2012

I cannot dispute this.

LOL. Thanksmcginnin56, I was just sitting here thinking............ I just wonder if by some wild 1 in 2000+ chance you would have had the 5+0 on either of the 2 times your 28 number hit should you have played the 41 lines?????? Maybe I just wont check, in case you missed the the $250k by $41. dollars. lol. lol.

United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 3972 Posts Offline

Posted: September 18, 2012, 9:00 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on September 18, 2012

LOL. Thanksmcginnin56, I was just sitting here thinking............ I just wonder if by some wild 1 in 2000+ chance you would have had the 5+0 on either of the 2 times your 28 number hit should you have played the 41 lines?????? Maybe I just wont check, in case you missed the the $250k by $41. dollars. lol. lol.

Ronnie

Which wheel are you using to get the 2of2 in 28 which outputs 41 lines. I end up with 48 with the wheel

I am using.

RL

Working on my Ph.D. "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not. Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

United States Member #128790 June 2, 2012 5431 Posts Offline

Posted: September 19, 2012, 12:45 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on September 18, 2012

After stopping in on a few of the other threads and hearing people say things like "there is no such thing as a system that will improve your odds" I was sitting here doing a few simple calculations and realized this thread has done a great job of offering proof that answers the question................

By choosing a group of 28 numbers that contains the 5 winning numbers, and playing a 2 if 2 of 28 wheel I have reduded my odds from 1 in 3.8 million to 1 in 2397. Cananyonedispute this??

Have you won a substantial amount using your method?