"Who is going to spend 15 thousand dollars let alone 433 dollars on a single draw?"
The odds against winning anything playing MM is 40 to 1 so $40 is the minimum bet any player can make and expect to win something. To guarantee winning something a player must spend $46 and play all the bonus numbers, but the odds against winning the jackpot are exactly the same as buying 46 QPs. The odds against any group of 28 numbers matching five numbers is 39 to 1 and the question here is "is it possible that a group or groups of 28 numbers can get better odds?". The answer is yes but without a hit ratio of 4 to 1, playing the 98,280 combo full wheel would result in a loss.
Currently we're discussing a more realistic 15 to 1 ratio and looking at betting strategies that give the best chance of matching five numbers when the 28 number group matches five numbers. Mathematically and over time (at least 50 drawings), a 4931 combo 4 if 4 wheel could be played at a profit, but a player would need very deep pockets to begin. Because we know the minimum bet is $40 a drawing to expect to win anything, that is an excellent starting point. A 2 if 2 wheel has 41 so add 5 more lines and use all the bonus numbers with a guarantee of winning something in every drawing even if none of the 28 numbers are drawn.
To answer your question, it's not about playing a single draw because even with a 1 to 4 ratio we can't expect that five number match in the next drawing and with a 15 to 1 ratio, we can't expect it to happen within the next month. Any group of 20 numbers should match five numbers once every 252 drawings so even with a 1 in 97 hit ratio which is equivalent to the 28 number group 1 in 15 ratio, it could take almost a years before you could expect to match five numbers.
I wouldn't suggest anyone using any "if 5" abbreviated wheel unless they were using a 46 combo 2 if 5 of 56 number MM wheel or maybe a 25 combo 2 if 5 of 39 in a pick-5 5/39 game. A 433 combo 4 if 5 of 20 number wheel only guarantees one four number match ($150) compared to a 3 if 3 wheel that has the potential of multiple four number matches at half the cost. I learned downside by playing a 13 combo 3 if 5 of 15 numbers the hard way when I matched all five numbers playing a 5/39 game; I got one three number match and still lost $3.
By playing a"if 5" abbreviated wheels you're actually limiting your chances of matching five numbers and the prize for the win guarantee is usually less than the cost of play.