United States Member #130797 July 25, 2012 4 Posts Offline

Posted: September 12, 2012, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 12, 2012

Any numbered wheel has the potential of matching five numbers and the odds against are proportional to the total number of combinations. Short of playing a full wheel or having a system that places the numbers in a correct order into an abbreviate or any other type of wheel with less than all the combos, using a filtered wheel and passing all the filters or a 4 if 4 wheel will give the player a much better chance of having a five number match.

The first time I matched all five numbers using a 13 combo 3 if 5 wheel, but only had one three number match, my first thought was had I used the correct order, I would have a five number match. The problem is there are only 13 ways to get the correct order and 360,347 ways to get it wrong. Probably the best way to get the best chance at a five number match is to use a 4 if 4 wheel but you can't play one with 15 numbers for $13. For the same price, a 2 if 2 would be better.

"4of5 odds are 1 in 15,313 and 5of5 odds are 1 in 3,904,701.3.9 million!! "

We're using a 28 number group 4 if 4 wheel as a model because while just under 5000 combos seems high, it's a more realistic play than the full 98,280 combos. Since there is a guarantee to match four numbers, the odds against matching five is 1 in 116, but by matching the fifth number and producing more four number matches, the odds are less than 5 to 1. If a player can get 5 five number matches every 50 drawings (10%), they could cover the cost of play and show a small profit.

The 5 out of every 50 is a big if, but not unrealistic; Ronnie is averaging about once out of every 5 drawings.

I agree with everything you say in your response and also believe Ronnie does do as well as he says. Yes every numbered wheel has the potential of matching five numbers just as a QP does, but we're not in the business of relying on luck. We are here to reduce our odds of 3,904,701 through wheeling. I used a bad example of comparing the 4if5 odds to the 5if5 odds for the mega millions. I do realize you're using a wheel, so a better example to make my point of "hitting 4 is not hitting 5" would be to use a wheel against a wheel. For example: An abbreviated wheel of 4of5if5 for 20 numbers is 433 combinations were as a 5of5if5 for 20 numbers is 15504 combinations. Who is going to spend 15 thousand dollars let alone 433 dollars on a single draw? Yes your odds are significantly reduced, but point being locking in a 5of5if5 is significantly more difficult (and expensive).

United States Member #130797 July 25, 2012 4 Posts Offline

Posted: September 12, 2012, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on September 11, 2012

Thanks for posting here sleven, and welcome to LP. The object from the beginning of this thread has not been to find a better system, but rather to produce BETTER odds by picking better numbers.

By playing 28 numbers the odds are reduced from 1 in 3.9 million to 1 in 39. Anyone who hits 5 of 5 in less than 39 draws has evidence that BETTER than stated lottery odds can be achieved. We have been playing for around 26 draws so far and several people have hit 5 of 5 twice and I have personally hit 5 time one of which was a 5+1

Ronnie316 – 5+0 june 15, 2012---- 5+0 July 17, 2012 ---5+1 Aug. 10, 2012 5+0 Aug. 21, 2012 5+0 Sept. 7, 2012

Thanks, Ronnie.

I agree 100%. It is about reducing our odds. I apologize if I came across like I was questioning your ability to hit the numbers or sound like I was suggesting another system. I do exactly what you do. I pick numbers based on my selection criteria and plug them into the system and go from there. I was just making a point that hitting 4 is still leaps and bounds from hitting 5. Still possible, but not the same. As I mention in another post I used a bad example for comparing 4 hits to 5 with the straight odds of the MegaMillions when I should have compared wheels against wheels. My error.

Im just a person who plays numbers and have zero technical skill when it comes to computer, spread sheets, software, or ANY type of programming. Im doing very well to put the numbers in the LP provided wheel and click "create wheel"

I am very happy that what I started here is working quite well, but it is by no means empirical evidence.

United States Member #124814 March 20, 2012 219 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 12:46 am - IP Logged

Ronnie, have you ever tried number ranges for the wheel?

I'd be interested in some software that could tell me how often a specific number range has hit in the lotto. For instance, how often the winning numbers have fallen within 20-40 or or 30-50 or 10-20/30-40, etc...and then see how it's currently trending and if there are any patterns when you analyze all the past drawings(i.e. birthday numbers hit, now the next drawing is likely to fall within the 20-40 range. Something like that).

Let's say you picked the number range 30-50 for the August 31st drawing:

31 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48

Every single number would have been in our wheel. I think picking a range might be better than just randomly picking numbers for the wheel.

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 1:07 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Masone on September 13, 2012

Ronnie, have you ever tried number ranges for the wheel?

I'd be interested in some software that could tell me how often a specific number range has hit in the lotto. For instance, how often the winning numbers have fallen within 20-40 or or 30-50 or 10-20/30-40, etc...and then see how it's currently trending and if there are any patterns when you analyze all the past drawings(i.e. birthday numbers hit, now the next drawing is likely to fall within the 20-40 range. Something like that).

Let's say you picked the number range 30-50 for the August 31st drawing:

31 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48

Every single number would have been in our wheel. I think picking a range might be better than just randomly picking numbers for the wheel.

Thanks for your question Masone, I will leave it for RJOh to answer when he logs on.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19903 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 8:22 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on September 13, 2012

Thanks for your question Masone, I will leave it for RJOh to answer when he logs on.

I would like to answer his question but I don't know what you have tried when it comes to wheeling.

About his interest in software that checks the range of previous winning numbers, I can't think of any that does that unique task but it's not hard for anyone to find out by simple checking a list of previous drawings.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7344 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by sleven on September 12, 2012

I agree with everything you say in your response and also believe Ronnie does do as well as he says. Yes every numbered wheel has the potential of matching five numbers just as a QP does, but we're not in the business of relying on luck. We are here to reduce our odds of 3,904,701 through wheeling. I used a bad example of comparing the 4if5 odds to the 5if5 odds for the mega millions. I do realize you're using a wheel, so a better example to make my point of "hitting 4 is not hitting 5" would be to use a wheel against a wheel. For example: An abbreviated wheel of 4of5if5 for 20 numbers is 433 combinations were as a 5of5if5 for 20 numbers is 15504 combinations. Who is going to spend 15 thousand dollars let alone 433 dollars on a single draw? Yes your odds are significantly reduced, but point being locking in a 5of5if5 is significantly more difficult (and expensive).

"Who is going to spend 15 thousand dollars let alone 433 dollars on a single draw?"

The odds against winning anything playing MM is 40 to 1 so $40 is the minimum bet any player can make and expect to win something. To guarantee winning something a player must spend $46 and play all the bonus numbers, but the odds against winning the jackpot are exactly the same as buying 46 QPs. The odds against any group of 28 numbers matching five numbers is 39 to 1 and the question here is "is it possible that a group or groups of 28 numbers can get better odds?". The answer is yes but without a hit ratio of 4 to 1, playing the 98,280 combo full wheel would result in a loss.

Currently we're discussing a more realistic 15 to 1 ratio and looking at betting strategies that give the best chance of matching five numbers when the 28 number group matches five numbers. Mathematically and over time (at least 50 drawings), a 4931 combo 4 if 4 wheel could be played at a profit, but a player would need very deep pockets to begin. Because we know the minimum bet is $40 a drawing to expect to win anything, that is an excellent starting point. A 2 if 2 wheel has 41 so add 5 more lines and use all the bonus numbers with a guarantee of winning something in every drawing even if none of the 28 numbers are drawn.

To answer your question, it's not about playing a single draw because even with a 1 to 4 ratio we can't expect that five number match in the next drawing and with a 15 to 1 ratio, we can't expect it to happen within the next month. Any group of 20 numbers should match five numbers once every 252 drawings so even with a 1 in 97 hit ratio which is equivalent to the 28 number group 1 in 15 ratio, it could take almost a years before you could expect to match five numbers.

I wouldn't suggest anyone using any "if 5" abbreviated wheel unless they were using a 46 combo 2 if 5 of 56 number MM wheel or maybe a 25 combo 2 if 5 of 39 in a pick-5 5/39 game. A 433 combo 4 if 5 of 20 number wheel only guarantees one four number match ($150) compared to a 3 if 3 wheel that has the potential of multiple four number matches at half the cost. I learned downside by playing a 13 combo 3 if 5 of 15 numbers the hard way when I matched all five numbers playing a 5/39 game; I got one three number match and still lost $3.

By playing a"if 5" abbreviated wheels you're actually limiting your chances of matching five numbers and the prize for the win guarantee is usually less than the cost of play.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19903 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Masone on September 13, 2012

Ronnie, have you ever tried number ranges for the wheel?

I'd be interested in some software that could tell me how often a specific number range has hit in the lotto. For instance, how often the winning numbers have fallen within 20-40 or or 30-50 or 10-20/30-40, etc...and then see how it's currently trending and if there are any patterns when you analyze all the past drawings(i.e. birthday numbers hit, now the next drawing is likely to fall within the 20-40 range. Something like that).

Let's say you picked the number range 30-50 for the August 31st drawing:

31 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48

Every single number would have been in our wheel. I think picking a range might be better than just randomly picking numbers for the wheel.

I checked the ranges of all 754 MM drawings since the last matrix change and they varied from 13 to 56. Ranges of 21 had happened 8 times and a total for ranges of 21 or less was 45

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7344 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2012, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Masone on September 13, 2012

Ronnie, have you ever tried number ranges for the wheel?

I'd be interested in some software that could tell me how often a specific number range has hit in the lotto. For instance, how often the winning numbers have fallen within 20-40 or or 30-50 or 10-20/30-40, etc...and then see how it's currently trending and if there are any patterns when you analyze all the past drawings(i.e. birthday numbers hit, now the next drawing is likely to fall within the 20-40 range. Something like that).

Let's say you picked the number range 30-50 for the August 31st drawing:

31 · 40 · 41 · 47 · 48

Every single number would have been in our wheel. I think picking a range might be better than just randomly picking numbers for the wheel.

"Let's say you picked the number range 30-50 for the August 31st drawing:"

All even, all odd, all high, or all low are all groups of 28 numbers and each group has the probability of matching five numbers in 2.56% of the drawings as does any group of 28 numbers. The 28 number group of all high numbers (29 - 56) had 12 matches, all low 20 matches, all even 18, and all odd 11 times. Of those groups, all low is the only group that beat probability.

"Every single number would have been in our wheel. I think picking a range might be better than just randomly picking numbers for the wheel."

The amount of numbers in each range dictates how many number are used. Your groups have about 21 numbers and the probability is once in every 192 drawings and the 30 - 50 range only had two five number matches in the history. I'm not sure of what type a trend you're expecting to find when each of those ranges only have a 0.0052% chance of hitting.

You could use all 56 numbers and specify how many matches each group can have. If you used three groups, 1 - 18, 19 - 37, and 38 - 56 and using 2/1/2 from each group, there are still 497,097 combos.