mid-Ohio United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by sleven on Sep 11, 2012
I certainly applaud your efforts and discoveries with reverse engineering and how close you can get with just a 2if2wheel. I do it myself and will continue to do it because I believe it can be done. With that being said, hitting 4 numbers is not hitting 5. Not even close. Case and point. Look at the odds on a MM draw: 4of5 odds are 1 in 15,313 and 5of5 odds are 1 in 3,904,701.3.9 million!!
As far as reverse engineering goes ... I must have spent 3 to 4 hours on excel reverse engineering myself into thinking I found some flaw in a particular wheelling system. I went to sleep that night thinking I was actually going to win. The next day I decided to reverse engineer my reverse engineering and quickly realized I discovered absolutely nothing. As it turned out I simply plugged my numbers into a winning combination. I'm not saying that's the case with you, but from my experience you may end up just spinning your wheels.
I'd be willing to bet that in addition to mathematicians on the payroll these state and national lotteries also have psychologists going through every possible scenario. Unfortunately, I believe they're one step ahead of us. That doesn't mean I'm giving up though. I'm just getting started.
"I must have spent 3 to 4 hours on excel reverse engineering myself into thinking I found some flaw in a particular wheelling system."
Back in 2002 when I matched 5of6 in Ohio's Super Lotto for $1500, it took me longer than that to convince myself I actually came that close to winning the jackpot.
I must admit I was thinking I had only after checking the ticket with numbers I saw flashed across the TV screen but wasn't total convinced until the numbers were posted on their website two hours later and I had rechecked everything three or four times.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
United States
Member #116,263
September 7, 2011
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Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on Sep 12, 2012
Good luck with the "8" bonus ball Ronnie.
Just checking out the drawing history and "15" hasn't hit for over 140 drawings, and "10" has gone over 160 drawings.
I'm going to roll the dice and try those bonus numbers for this evening.
Good idea mcginnin56, those numbers no doubt WILL come in eventually...... But I feel its only fair to give you a word of warning the chasing cold numbers can be hazardous to your health. (as I leaned from the great LottoBoner, or someone)
AND I have been getting that "hair standing on the back of my neck" feeling about the 8 ball again. lol.
United States
Member #111,437
May 25, 2011
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Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Sep 12, 2012
Good idea mcginnin56, those numbers no doubt WILL come in eventually...... But I feel its only fair to give you a word of warning the chasing cold numbers can be hazardous to your health. (as I leaned from the great LottoBoner, or someone)
AND I have been getting that "hair standing on the back of my neck" feeling about the 8 ball again. lol.
Thanks for the warning. Gonna try them both just this evening. What's 4 bucks anyways? That would be a tip to my wife for not talking my ear off.
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,301 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by sleven on Sep 11, 2012
I certainly applaud your efforts and discoveries with reverse engineering and how close you can get with just a 2if2wheel. I do it myself and will continue to do it because I believe it can be done. With that being said, hitting 4 numbers is not hitting 5. Not even close. Case and point. Look at the odds on a MM draw: 4of5 odds are 1 in 15,313 and 5of5 odds are 1 in 3,904,701.3.9 million!!
As far as reverse engineering goes ... I must have spent 3 to 4 hours on excel reverse engineering myself into thinking I found some flaw in a particular wheelling system. I went to sleep that night thinking I was actually going to win. The next day I decided to reverse engineer my reverse engineering and quickly realized I discovered absolutely nothing. As it turned out I simply plugged my numbers into a winning combination. I'm not saying that's the case with you, but from my experience you may end up just spinning your wheels.
I'd be willing to bet that in addition to mathematicians on the payroll these state and national lotteries also have psychologists going through every possible scenario. Unfortunately, I believe they're one step ahead of us. That doesn't mean I'm giving up though. I'm just getting started.
Any numbered wheel has the potential of matching five numbers and the odds against are proportional to the total number of combinations. Short of playing a full wheel or having a system that places the numbers in a correct order into an abbreviate or any other type of wheel with less than all the combos, using a filtered wheel and passing all the filters or a 4 if 4 wheel will give the player a much better chance of having a five number match.
The first time I matched all five numbers using a 13 combo 3 if 5 wheel, but only had one three number match, my first thought was had I used the correct order, I would have a five number match. The problem is there are only 13 ways to get the correct order and 360,347 ways to get it wrong. Probably the best way to get the best chance at a five number match is to use a 4 if 4 wheel but you can't play one with 15 numbers for $13. For the same price, a 2 if 2 would be better.
"4of5 odds are 1 in 15,313 and 5of5 odds are 1 in 3,904,701.3.9 million!! "
We're using a 28 number group 4 if 4 wheel as a model because while just under 5000 combos seems high, it's a more realistic play than the full 98,280 combos. Since there is a guarantee to match four numbers, the odds against matching five is 1 in 116, but by matching the fifth number and producing more four number matches, the odds are less than 5 to 1. If a player can get 5 five number matches every 50 drawings (10%), they could cover the cost of play and show a small profit.
The 5 out of every 50 is a big if, but not unrealistic; Ronnie is averaging about once out of every 5 drawings.