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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Member #124493
March 14, 2012
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Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

The Kelly Criterion only applies to games where you have an edge, if you inputed the average lottery results you should get a negative number, indicating that you should be the house (haha.)

 

And Ronnie, EV stands for Expected Value.  It's a real concept - it's the same thing as the "mean" or "average" result of any gamble.  For example the EV of a fair coinflip with a 1:1 bet is 0.  It's not a wierd theory, it's just the word many gambling mathemticians use to describe the average result of a wager.  It could also be expressed as Edge, like house or player edge.

 

The Standard Deviation Statistic is useful for 2 reasons.  It describes how far you are likely to deviate away from your expected value.  The second reason is that for games with a player edge, you can reasonably approximate the optimal bet for bankroll growth with the formula (EV/(STDDEV^2))*Bankroll.

 

The formula to find the actual optimal Kelly bet is more complex than just using STD DEV, but is usually well approximated by using STDDEV^2.

 

J.L. Kelly Jr, found that anyone betting double of the Kelly criterion would see no growth in their bankroll playing a game with an advantage.  I think it is important to understand this concept, although it has little to no application with the lottery, which can basically never be played with a player edge.

IMHO There is no such thing as a game with an edge, so you are talking out your boneybutt again.

The edge only develops as the trends develops. 

I read that book, (or most of it at least) its called "Fortunes Formula" but again I didn't apply the Kelly Criterion because the mathy stuff is for RJ, Stack, and Serge.

Boney its a razors edge that lottery players look for, and with your  Shiftyeyed way of seeing you will never see an edge, let alone calculate the STD DEV without a scientific calculator.

Until you can calculate STD DEV quickly on paper, as I imagine Stack, RJ, and Serge can do then you just better shut up about it!Cussing Face

In the famous words of Alex Jones describing David Icke. "He is like a turd in the punch bowl"  Having to read your drivvle on this thread is like going to a party and the heavily spiked punch bowl has a turd in it.

Droning on about how ronnie cant find an edge is very rude and disrespectful.  You say you have better things to do, but I highly doubt that.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19898 Posts
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    Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:46 pm - IP Logged

    I hope nobody tells Thrifty, based on sales only 3 of the nine 9 second prize winners were QPs.

    Thrifty isn't any better than the rest of us, in spite of what we believe we can't ignore the facts.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


      United States
      Member #124493
      March 14, 2012
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      Posted: December 20, 2012, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

      Ok I have a set of 20 numbers and a set of 28 numbers

      The 20 number set are represented by pink color on my Matrix Walk

      the additiional eight are green.

      1 2 5 7 11 12 13 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 42 43 44 50 51 52   PB 39

      6 9 17 18 19 45 46 47  are the additional eight

      so the full set is

      1 2 5 6 7 9 11 12 13 17 18 19 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 42 43 44 45 46 47 50 51 52  PB 39

      5

      24

      26

      29

      53

      -7

      -30

      -3

      -4

      0

      -1

      -15

      -12

      -12

      -10

      -13

      -1

      -3

      -8

      -6

      -11

      -7

      -2

      -37

      -13

      -18

      -2

      -15

      0

      -24

      0

      -43

      -38

      0

      -29

      -1

      -3

      -2

      -8

      -2

      -6

      -9

      -4

      -12

      -2

      -21

      -7

      -14

      -4

      -23

      -1

      -22

      -8

      -17

      -15

      -15

      -9

      0

      -50

      -7

      -1

      9

      13

      22

      38

      52

      -8

      -31

      -4

      -5

      -1

      -2

      -16

      -13

      0

      -11

      -14

      -2

      0

      -9

      -7

      -12

      -8

      -3

      -38

      -14

      -19

      0

      -16

      -1

      -25

      -1

      -44

      -39

      -1

      -30

      -2

      -4

      -3

      -9

      -3

      -7

      -10

      0

      -13

      -3

      -22

      -8

      -15

      -5

      -24

      -2

      -23

      -9

      -18

      -16

      -16

      0

      -1

      -51

      -8

      -2

      8

      37

      44

      47

      48

      -9

      -32

      -5

      -6

      -2

      -3

      -17

      0

      -1

      -12

      -15

      -3

      -1

      -10

      -8

      -13

      -9

      -4

      -39

      -15

      -20

      -1

      -17

      -2

      -26

      -2

      -45

      -40

      -2

      -31

      -3

      -5

      -4

      -10

      -4

      -8

      0

      -1

      -14

      -4

      -23

      -9

      -16

      0

      -25

      -3

      0

      0

      -19

      -17

      -17

      -1

      -2

      -52

      -9

      -3

      5

      12

      26

      42

      49

      -10

      -33

      -6

      -7

      0

      -4

      -18

      -1

      -2

      -13

      -16

      0

      -2

      -11

      -9

      -14

      -10

      -5

      -40

      -16

      -21

      -2

      -18

      -3

      -27

      0

      -46

      -41

      -3

      -32

      -4

      -6

      -5

      -11

      -5

      -9

      -1

      -2

      -15

      -5

      -24

      0

      -17

      -1

      -26

      -4

      -1

      -1

      0

      -18

      -18

      -2

      -3

      -53

      -10

      -4

      11

      22

      24

      28

      31

      -11

      -34

      -7

      -8

      -1

      -5

      -19

      -2

      -3

      -14

      0

      -1

      -3

      -12

      -10

      -15

      -11

      -6

      -41

      -17

      -22

      0

      -19

      0

      -28

      -1

      -47

      0

      -4

      -33

      0

      -7

      -6

      -12

      -6

      -10

      -2

      -3

      -16

      -6

      -25

      -1

      -18

      -2

      -27

      -5

      -2

      -2

      -1

      -19

      -19

      -3

      -4

      -54

      -11

      -5

      3

      19

      24

      32

      43

      -12

      -35

      0

      -9

      -2

      -6

      -20

      -3

      -4

      -15

      -1

      -2

      -4

      -13

      -11

      -16

      -12

      -7

      0

      -18

      -23

      -1

      -20

      0

      -29

      -2

      -48

      -1

      -5

      -34

      -1

      0

      -7

      -13

      -7

      -11

      -3

      -4

      -17

      -7

      -26

      -2

      0

      -3

      -28

      -6

      -3

      -3

      -2

      -20

      -20

      -4

      -5

      -55

      -12

      -6

      7

      43

      44

      51

      56

      -13

      -36

      -1

      -10

      -3

      -7

      0

      -4

      -5

      -16

      -2

      -3

      -5

      -14

      -12

      -17

      -13

      -8

      -1

      -19

      -24

      -2

      -21

      -1

      -30

      -3

      -49

      -2

      -6

      -35

      -2

      -1

      -8

      -14

      -8

      -12

      -4

      -5

      -18

      -8

      -27

      -3

      0

      0

      -29

      -7

      -4

      -4

      -3

      -21

      0

      -5

      -6

      -56

      -13

      0

      39

      44

      51

      52

      54

      -14

      -37

      -2

      -11

      -4

      -8

      -1

      -5

      -6

      -17

      -3

      -4

      -6

      -15

      -13

      -18

      -14

      -9

      -2

      -20

      -25

      -3

      -22

      -2

      -31

      -4

      -50

      -3

      -7

      -36

      -3

      -2

      -9

      -15

      -9

      -13

      -5

      -6

      0

      -9

      -28

      -4

      -1

      0

      -30

      -8

      -5

      -5

      -4

      -22

      0

      0

      -7

      0

      -14

      -1

      11

      28

      33

      41

      43

      -15

      -38

      -3

      -12

      -5

      -9

      -2

      -6

      -7

      -18

      0

      -5

      -7

      -16

      -14

      -19

      -15

      -10

      -3

      -21

      -26

      -4

      -23

      -3

      -32

      -5

      -51

      0

      -8

      -37

      -4

      -3

      0

      -16

      -10

      -14

      -6

      -7

      -1

      -10

      0

      -5

      0

      -1

      -31

      -9

      -6

      -6

      -5

      -23

      -1

      -1

      -8

      -1

      -15

      -2

      1

      6

      7

      18

      29

      0

      -39

      -4

      -13

      -6

      0

      0

      -7

      -8

      -19

      -1

      -6

      -8

      -17

      -15

      -20

      -16

      0

      -4

      -22

      -27

      -5

      -24

      -4

      -33

      -6

      -52

      -1

      0

      -38

      -5

      -4

      -1

      -17

      -11

      -15

      -7

      -8

      -2

      -11

      -1

      -6

      -1

      -2

      -32

      -10

      -7

      -7

      -6

      -24

      -2

      -2

      -9

      -2

      -16

      -3

      ?

      ?

      ?

      ?

      ?

      1

      2

      3

      4

      5

      6

      7

      8

      9

      10

      11

      12

      13

      14

      15

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      50

      51

      52

      53

      54

      55

      56

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #99032
        October 18, 2010
        1439 Posts
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        Posted: December 20, 2012, 5:40 pm - IP Logged

        IMHO There is no such thing as a game with an edge, so you are talking out your boneybutt again.

        The edge only develops as the trends develops. 

        I read that book, (or most of it at least) its called "Fortunes Formula" but again I didn't apply the Kelly Criterion because the mathy stuff is for RJ, Stack, and Serge.

        Boney its a razors edge that lottery players look for, and with your  Shiftyeyed way of seeing you will never see an edge, let alone calculate the STD DEV without a scientific calculator.

        Until you can calculate STD DEV quickly on paper, as I imagine Stack, RJ, and Serge can do then you just better shut up about it!Cussing Face

        In the famous words of Alex Jones describing David Icke. "He is like a turd in the punch bowl"  Having to read your drivvle on this thread is like going to a party and the heavily spiked punch bowl has a turd in it.

        Droning on about how ronnie cant find an edge is very rude and disrespectful.  You say you have better things to do, but I highly doubt that.

        It doesn't matter if your opinion is there is no such thing as a game with an edge, because that's not true.

         

        I can calculate STD DEV on paper for a sample, and for something like a result.  Anybody who claims to be able to do it on paper quickly for something with millions of possible results is full of it, b/c there are so many possible outcomes that you simply can't do it on paper in a timely manner.

         

        Which is why the Chi Squared test is useful, and you can do that on paper.  But I'm not gonna go looking through that test to prove the STD DEV to any of you guys, especially when you guys are convinced that the mean of 700 draws isn't calculated by 700 times 5/56.

         

        Kelly Criterion does NOT apply to lottery.  Anyone who attempts to say they will apply it on the lottery has either found a rare promotion which would make it applicable, or misunderstands the usefulness of the concept.

         

        STD DEV of the number of times the a specific digit shows up has no relevance to Kelly betting.  Only the STD DEV of the monetary result per unit wagered.


          United States
          Member #124493
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          Posted: December 20, 2012, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

          What is with you and the STD DEV of the monetary result?

          We are predicting balls boney, not paper.  It sounds like maybe you need to find a girl and deflate your balls.

          Or maybe you are still flipping quarters.  Maybe thats what you mean when you say have better things to do?Roll Eyes

          I know, I know, you are not going to take the time to prove anything, you are just going to focus the majority of your time time spewing BS.

          Maybe Kelly criterion COULD apply to lottery. 

          Standard deviation just means deviation from the norm.  I think you are seriously confused, and because you keep saying sample and population (which are terms that really no Lottery Genius is using), I get the feeling that you are repeating something you read somewhere without truly understanding it.

          Did you read the Lottery Master Guide boney?  Why dont you explain STD DEV in terms of the variables introduced in that book.

          Speaking of weird concepts such as the Patriot

          I read the LMG, and some of it is good, but much is left out, but according to LFF theory (which should by its own rule have its own standard deviation based upon arithmetic mean in varying samples of population).

          Where varying samples of population should rather be termed (time periods) such as Last 100, Last 50, or any other small sample up to and including the Last 1000 draws.

          So using LFF theory tonite in MM, then my power number (or key number) in all my lines would be

          #22

          which coincidently happens to be 1/4 of boneys I.Q.

          I could be mistaken but I believe a skip of 5 could be considered a standard deviation from the norm.

          Boney this is the last time I am going to try and enlighten you, and if I am wrong then I expect some more "mathy" person to put me straight.

          Ronnie is correct you are using the term standard deviation as a catch all phrase.

          The standard deviation appies to variables, and yes the numbers 1 to 56 are variables,

          BUT, within the superset of those 56 individual variables and their associated standard deviations, there are subsets of variables which can be observed and that are just as valid which then have their own standard variation.

          Everything from individual numbers, to decades, to flag formations, to adjacents, to skips, behave according to their own nature, and have their own mean (average) and their own STD deviation.

          So to look at something from your perspective boney is to look at something in one dimension, but this universe and the lottery are both multi-dimensional.

          HippyHippyHippyHippy

          Peace out, good to see you, wouldn't want to be ya.

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
            New Jersey
            United States
            Member #99032
            October 18, 2010
            1439 Posts
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            Posted: December 20, 2012, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

            No crap sherlock.  If you don't know the difference between populations and samples in statistics, I don't want to hear it from you.

             

            And of course there are differnet STD DEV for different statistics.  But they don't all apply equally everywhere.  For example the STD DEV in the Kelly Criterion approximation formula refers to the STD DEV in terms of monetary results, not the average times a number shows.  So in that case, you have to use the right variable.

             

            The reason the Kelly Criterion doesn't apply to lottery is because the result you'd get from inputting the numbers into the equation would always tell you to bet a negative amount.  In other words, the forumla would tell you to BE THE HOUSE.


              United States
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              Posted: December 20, 2012, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

              No crap sherlock.  If you don't know the difference between populations and samples in statistics, I don't want to hear it from you.

               

              And of course there are differnet STD DEV for different statistics.  But they don't all apply equally everywhere.  For example the STD DEV in the Kelly Criterion approximation formula refers to the STD DEV in terms of monetary results, not the average times a number shows.  So in that case, you have to use the right variable.

               

              The reason the Kelly Criterion doesn't apply to lottery is because the result you'd get from inputting the numbers into the equation would always tell you to bet a negative amount.  In other words, the forumla would tell you to BE THE HOUSE.

              Nice work Boney, you got everyone all riled up. Did you know that when the PB jackpot was $588 million I was playing for 5 of 5 with odds of 1 in 575k while you were playing with odds of 1 in 5 million?

              Just wondering........


                United States
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                Posted: December 20, 2012, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

                No crap sherlock.  If you don't know the difference between populations and samples in statistics, I don't want to hear it from you.

                 

                And of course there are differnet STD DEV for different statistics.  But they don't all apply equally everywhere.  For example the STD DEV in the Kelly Criterion approximation formula refers to the STD DEV in terms of monetary results, not the average times a number shows.  So in that case, you have to use the right variable.

                 

                The reason the Kelly Criterion doesn't apply to lottery is because the result you'd get from inputting the numbers into the equation would always tell you to bet a negative amount.  In other words, the forumla would tell you to BE THE HOUSE.

                "The reason the Kelly Criterion doesn't apply to lottery is because the result you'd get from inputting the numbers into the equation would always tell you to bet a negative amount.  In other words, the forumla would tell you to BE THE HOUSE."

                This why I started my Kelly Criterion thread - to see if anyone would notice this.  As you can see from what happened to the thread:

                Not a peep!  Smile

                --Jimmy4164


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                  Posted: December 20, 2012, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

                  "The reason the Kelly Criterion doesn't apply to lottery is because the result you'd get from inputting the numbers into the equation would always tell you to bet a negative amount.  In other words, the forumla would tell you to BE THE HOUSE."

                  This why I started my Kelly Criterion thread - to see if anyone would notice this.  As you can see from what happened to the thread:

                  Not a peep!  Smile

                  --Jimmy4164

                  From what i understand positive and negative have nothing to do with standard deviation when it comes to money.

                  Positive means win money

                  Negative means lose mony

                  or vice/versa.

                  You guys dont even know how to utilize the standard deviation equation correctly.

                  What makes me think you guys can utililize the Kelly equation correctly?

                  ConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfused

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: December 20, 2012, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                    As a standard member boney cant get that info.

                    I can get it in my charts in excel.

                    To me the standard deviation is a complicated equation, and I dont use it, and dont care to take the time to do it.  And as boney said already, it would take three hours, and thats just time I dont have on top of the workouts I do for at least 10 differnet games. (some are faster than others)

                    There probably is a function for STD deviation, but then I would get a number.  I am better with pictures.

                    Are you posting 28 numbers tonite stack?

                    P.S. if it wasn't clear I was mocking boney in that post, and as you see he has no answer to the question, and never did

                    Boney I am sure has some good lottery ideas somewhere but in terms of this thread he is Just a Red Devil's advocate.

                    Stack what about the flag formation in decades?  Is that a variable worthy of your time?  Do you analyze it?

                    Not posting 28 numbers, but I'm playing the five least frequent numbers with the bonus number you suggested, "5". I'm not mocking you or your efforts but they do have standard deviation calulators on the web.

                    "Boney I am sure has some good lottery ideas somewhere"

                    Have an ideas to create a group of 28 numbers and get a 1 in 15 hit ratio?

                    Doesn't have to be the same 28 numbers every drawing either.

                    "Stack what about the flag formation in decades?"

                    Might be an interesting filter to use on a full 28 number wheel; 3 to 4 numbers from the same decaded.


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                      Posted: December 20, 2012, 11:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Not posting 28 numbers, but I'm playing the five least frequent numbers with the bonus number you suggested, "5". I'm not mocking you or your efforts but they do have standard deviation calulators on the web.

                      "Boney I am sure has some good lottery ideas somewhere"

                      Have an ideas to create a group of 28 numbers and get a 1 in 15 hit ratio?

                      Doesn't have to be the same 28 numbers every drawing either.

                      "Stack what about the flag formation in decades?"

                      Might be an interesting filter to use on a full 28 number wheel; 3 to 4 numbers from the same decaded.

                      In all honesty, fortunately I can find a minute advantage using flag formations in decades for the entire history of my pick 5; unfortunately it takes a lot of time and space and dedication, which i am running out of.  Money is not a problem as I can always collect bottles and cans.Green laugh

                      It is a valid strategy for the Mega games, but I have not really tried to find a serious advantage because of the effort required, the odds to overcome and the g-dd--n STD is always bugging me!, but if you look at my MW chart you can see that there are some symmetric skip patterns within the decades as far as "no scores" or concerned

                      I dont think I suggested the "5".

                      That might have been RJ.

                      I am going with the 39.

                      Still running 22 as classic lotto flag formation pattern.

                      28 numbers is a good starting point, but i figure 20 number is more realistic.

                      thats ≈1/3 of the total matrix.

                      What do the DM have to say about all this?


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                        Member #124493
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                        Posted: December 21, 2012, 7:18 am - IP Logged

                        I have been unleashed!!!!!Smash

                        Time to deflate my balls!!!!!!Hyper

                        P.S. On a side note, ran to the lotto store like a Turkey without a head, only to realize there was no Mega Millions last night.

                        Missed the cutoff time too.  Maybe I should have not spent so much time at the bar up the road.  But boy they got some real cute bartenders.Lover

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
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                          March 13, 2008
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                          Posted: December 21, 2012, 7:25 am - IP Logged

                          Dream on

                          Every time when I look in the mirror
                          All these lines on my face getting clearer
                          The past is gone
                          It went by, like dusk to dawn
                          Isn't that the way
                          Everybody's got the dues in life to pay

                          I know nobody knows
                          Where it comes and where it goes
                          I know it's everybody sin
                          You got to lose to know how to win

                          Half my life
                          Is books written pages
                          Live and learn from fools and
                          From sages
                          You know it's true, oh
                          All these things you do come back to you

                          Sing with me, sing for the years
                          Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
                          Sing with me, just for today
                          Maybe tomorrow, the good lord will take you away

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


                            United States
                            Member #124493
                            March 14, 2012
                            7023 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 21, 2012, 7:40 am - IP Logged

                            Dream on

                            Every time when I look in the mirror
                            All these lines on my face getting clearer
                            The past is gone
                            It went by, like dusk to dawn
                            Isn't that the way
                            Everybody's got the dues in life to pay

                            I know nobody knows
                            Where it comes and where it goes
                            I know it's everybody sin
                            You got to lose to know how to win

                            Half my life
                            Is books written pages
                            Live and learn from fools and
                            From sages
                            You know it's true, oh
                            All these things you do come back to you

                            Sing with me, sing for the years
                            Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
                            Sing with me, just for today
                            Maybe tomorrow, the good lord will take you away

                            Shape Of My Heart"

                            He deals the cards as a meditation.
                            And those he plays never suspect.
                            He doesn't play for the money he wins.
                            He doesn't play for respect.
                            He deals the cards to find the answer.
                            The sacred geometry of chance.
                            The hidden law of a probable outcome,
                            The numbers lead a dance.
                            I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier I know that the clubs are weapons of war I know that diamonds mean money for this art But that's not the shape of my heart He may play the jack of diamonds He may lay the queen of spades He may conceal a king in his hand While the memory of it fades
                            I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier I know that the clubs are weapons of war I know that diamonds mean money for this art But that's not the shape of my heart That's not the shape, the shape of my heart And if I told you that I loved you You'd maybe think there's something wrong I'm not a man of too many faces The mask I wear is one
                            Those who speak know nothing
                            And find out to their cost
                            Like those who curse their luck in too many places And those who fear are lost
                            I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier I know that the clubs are weapons of war I know that diamonds mean money for this art But that's not the shape of my heart That's not the shape of my heart
                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                              United States
                              Member #73904
                              April 28, 2009
                              14903 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 21, 2012, 9:46 am - IP Logged

                              I have been unleashed!!!!!Smash

                              Time to deflate my balls!!!!!!Hyper

                              P.S. On a side note, ran to the lotto store like a Turkey without a head, only to realize there was no Mega Millions last night.

                              Missed the cutoff time too.  Maybe I should have not spent so much time at the bar up the road.  But boy they got some real cute bartenders.Lover

                              "But boy they got some real cute bartenders.Lover"

                              Do they have any barmaids?

                                 
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