mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Offline

Posted: December 20, 2012, 9:19 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on December 19, 2012

Last night's MegaMillions winning numbers 12/18/12 - 01 06 07 18 29 +16 was a good example of that theory while sounding logic not being based on facts. This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but no jackpot winner. How many times has such combinations had no winners let alone multi-winners?

Ditto!

Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30 +03 was a good example of that theory while sounding logic not being based on facts. This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner. How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: December 20, 2012, 9:28 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on December 20, 2012

Ditto!

Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30 +03 was a good example of that theory while sounding logic not being based on facts. This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner. How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

Sounds like Boneys strange "EV" theory is something only a "minder" could come up with.....

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Online

Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBoner on December 19, 2012

So do the calculation boney. Whats the standard deviation of the results.

You are seeing it all wrong. Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games. Should I bet on the number that is out 59 games, the number out 1 game or the number at 32 games.

What is the STD DEV of the Mean, The arithemetic mean, the mode, what is the percentages?

Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits.

What is the STD DEV GAP JAP GRO MOO MIN MAX

What is the expectancy?

You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

"Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

"Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Online

Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on December 20, 2012

Ditto!

Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30 +03 was a good example of that theory while sounding logic not being based on facts. This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner. How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

I hope nobody tells Thrifty, based on sales only 3 of the nine 9 second prize winners were QPs.

United States Member #124493 March 14, 2012 7023 Posts Offline

Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on December 20, 2012

You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

"Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

"Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

As a standard member boney cant get that info.

I can get it in my charts in excel.

To me the standard deviation is a complicated equation, and I dont use it, and dont care to take the time to do it. And as boney said already, it would take three hours, and thats just time I dont have on top of the workouts I do for at least 10 differnet games. (some are faster than others)

There probably is a function for STD deviation, but then I would get a number. I am better with pictures.

Are you posting 28 numbers tonite stack?

P.S. if it wasn't clear I was mocking boney in that post, and as you see he has no answer to the question, and never did

Boney I am sure has some good lottery ideas somewhere but in terms of this thread he is Just a 's advocate.

Stack what about the flag formation in decades? Is that a variable worthy of your time? Do you analyze it?

I think you're dealing with a couple of the same "minders" as I did previously.

--Jimmy4164

The Kelly Criterion only applies to games where you have an edge, if you inputed the average lottery results you should get a negative number, indicating that you should be the house (haha.)

And Ronnie, EV stands for Expected Value. It's a real concept - it's the same thing as the "mean" or "average" result of any gamble. For example the EV of a fair coinflip with a 1:1 bet is 0. It's not a wierd theory, it's just the word many gambling mathemticians use to describe the average result of a wager. It could also be expressed as Edge, like house or player edge.

The Standard Deviation Statistic is useful for 2 reasons. It describes how far you are likely to deviate away from your expected value. The second reason is that for games with a player edge, you can reasonably approximate the optimal bet for bankroll growth with the formula (EV/(STDDEV^2))*Bankroll.

The formula to find the actual optimal Kelly bet is more complex than just using STD DEV, but is usually well approximated by using STDDEV^2.

J.L. Kelly Jr, found that anyone betting double of the Kelly criterion would see no growth in their bankroll playing a game with an advantage. I think it is important to understand this concept, although it has little to no application with the lottery, which can basically never be played with a player edge.

New Jersey United States Member #99032 October 18, 2010 1439 Posts Offline

Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on December 20, 2012

You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

"Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

"Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

How would you find the mean? I find it by doing "# of trials"*"Probability of occurence."

This is 700 times 5/56. This is 62.5.

Like I said to you guys I'm not going to go re-learn the Chi Squared test, b/c I've got more important things to do. Take that how you want. Maybe I'll find some time and provide the proper answer in a few days if I find a graphing calculator so that I don't have to relearn the whole test.