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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: December 20, 2012, 9:19 am - IP Logged

Last night's MegaMillions winning numbers 12/18/12 - 01 06 07 18 29  +16  was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but no jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had no winners let alone multi-winners?

Ditto!

Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30  +03   was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       


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    Posted: December 20, 2012, 9:22 am - IP Logged

    Ok, heres my "quirky" set of 39 numbers for tonights PB drawing. Wed. Dec. 18, 2012.

    02 03 06 07 09 11 13 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 59

    bonus ball 12

    3 of 5 on this draw........

    Wednesday, December 19, 2012         05 · 08 · 20 · 23 · 30    03          $50 Million


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      Posted: December 20, 2012, 9:28 am - IP Logged

      Ditto!

      Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30  +03   was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

      Sounds like Boneys strange "EV" theory is something only a "minder" could come up with.....What?


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        Posted: December 20, 2012, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

        I aM D wiNNer oF D wOrLd..... I dOnT pLaY fOr nO sTiNkIn eV....


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          Posted: December 20, 2012, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

          Dance


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            Posted: December 20, 2012, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

                                                        Bash


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              Posted: December 20, 2012, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

              LOL


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                Posted: December 20, 2012, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                LOL

                Hey Ronnie I want to play too.  I am gonna post only twenty numbers though, because I think some numbers have better odds.

                Thinking of...

                Stay tuned.

                And boney please do the standard deviation.

                Oh yeah I forgot, you dont know how.

                Seems like somebody was talking a lot about something they know nothing about.

                STD DEV Spam

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

                  So do the calculation boney.  Whats the standard deviation of the results.

                  You are seeing it all wrong.  Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games.  Should I bet on the number that is out 59 games, the number out 1 game or the number at 32 games.

                  What is the STD DEV of the Mean, The arithemetic mean, the mode, what is the percentages?

                  Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits.

                  What is the STD DEV GAP JAP GRO MOO MIN MAX

                  What is the expectancy?

                  You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

                  "Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

                  I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

                  "Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

                  I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

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                    Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

                    Ditto!

                    Last night's PowerBall winning numbers 12/19/12 - 05 08 20 23 30  +03   was a good example of that  theory while sounding logic not being based on facts.  This all birthday numbers combination produced nine second place winners but only one jackpot winner.  How many times has such combinations had only one winner or no winners?

                    I hope nobody tells Thrifty, based on sales only 3 of the nine 9 second prize winners were QPs.


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                      Posted: December 20, 2012, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

                      You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

                      "Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

                      I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

                      "Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

                      I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

                      As a standard member boney cant get that info.

                      I can get it in my charts in excel.

                      To me the standard deviation is a complicated equation, and I dont use it, and dont care to take the time to do it.  And as boney said already, it would take three hours, and thats just time I dont have on top of the workouts I do for at least 10 differnet games. (some are faster than others)

                      There probably is a function for STD deviation, but then I would get a number.  I am better with pictures.

                      Are you posting 28 numbers tonite stack?

                      P.S. if it wasn't clear I was mocking boney in that post, and as you see he has no answer to the question, and never did

                      Boney I am sure has some good lottery ideas somewhere but in terms of this thread he is Just a Red Devil's advocate.

                      Stack what about the flag formation in decades?  Is that a variable worthy of your time?  Do you analyze it?


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                        Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                        Ok I have a set of 20 numbers and a set of 28 numbers

                        The 20 number set are represented by pink color on my Matrix Walk

                        the additiional eight are green.

                        1 2 5 7 11 12 13 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 42 43 44 50 51 52   PB 39

                        6 9 17 18 19 45 46 47  are the additional eight

                        so the full set is

                        1 2 5 6 7 9 11 12 13 17 18 19 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 42 43 44 45 46 47 50 51 52  PB 39

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                          "...I basically use the kelly criterion, if anyone was interested..."

                          I tried to introduce this a long time ago - you can see the enthusiasm it generated here...

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229612 

                          I think you're dealing with a couple of the same "minders" as I did previously.

                          --Jimmy4164

                          The Kelly Criterion only applies to games where you have an edge, if you inputed the average lottery results you should get a negative number, indicating that you should be the house (haha.)

                           

                          And Ronnie, EV stands for Expected Value.  It's a real concept - it's the same thing as the "mean" or "average" result of any gamble.  For example the EV of a fair coinflip with a 1:1 bet is 0.  It's not a wierd theory, it's just the word many gambling mathemticians use to describe the average result of a wager.  It could also be expressed as Edge, like house or player edge.

                           

                          The Standard Deviation Statistic is useful for 2 reasons.  It describes how far you are likely to deviate away from your expected value.  The second reason is that for games with a player edge, you can reasonably approximate the optimal bet for bankroll growth with the formula (EV/(STDDEV^2))*Bankroll.

                           

                          The formula to find the actual optimal Kelly bet is more complex than just using STD DEV, but is usually well approximated by using STDDEV^2.

                           

                          J.L. Kelly Jr, found that anyone betting double of the Kelly criterion would see no growth in their bankroll playing a game with an advantage.  I think it is important to understand this concept, although it has little to no application with the lottery, which can basically never be played with a player edge.

                            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                            Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

                            You brought up standard deviation as if it was the missing piece of a puzzle and even showed an elaborate way to find the frequency distribution mean of 700 drawings; dividing 3500 by 56 is just too easy.

                            "Instead of one game you have to think of it as a bunch of little games."

                            I can look at the drawing statistics on LP from 10 drawings to the game history and see the numbers in green are in the mean, the numbers in red over the mean, and the blue numbers under. I guess it's just more mathematically sound to use the square root of 62.5 as the frequency standard deviation than to look at a chart.

                            "Shoud I bet on the number with 62 hits in a year or the one with 30 hits."

                            I've never used frequency distribution as a tool so you're on your own. But I do know the top 28 most frequent numbers should match five numbers once in 39 drawings.

                            How would you find the mean?  I find it by doing "# of trials"*"Probability of occurence."

                             

                            This is 700 times 5/56.  This is 62.5.

                             

                            Like I said to you guys I'm not going to go re-learn the Chi Squared test, b/c I've got more important things to do.  Take that how you want.  Maybe I'll find some time and provide the proper answer in a few days if I find a graphing calculator so that I don't have to relearn the whole test.

                              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                              Posted: December 20, 2012, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

                              I hope nobody tells Thrifty, based on sales only 3 of the nine 9 second prize winners were QPs.

                              Self Pick players tend to pick numbers 31 and lower more often than numbers higher than 31.

                               

                              Maybe not many of the players on LP, but many of the casual players.  And of course, they are still going to get lucky just as often.

                                 
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