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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

Quit being ridiculous.

 

You're asking me why would I (do this impossible task) when I can do (this impossible task) and which I would prefer.

 

Neither are possible.  You can't eliminate 20 numbers with any reliable accuracy, so the point is moot.

 

And quit saying things like that.  From the perspective of a superior being....  just stop.  I've stated multiple times that you can believe what you wish, and I've presented the concepts which lead me to believe, and actually know, that the concepts you are describing are incorrect.  I've been there.  I now realize there is no affect.  Like I said YOU ARE FREE TO HOLD YOUR OWN BELIEFS.  I won't call you stupid for that.  I will say there is no logical reason to believe intuition can help you predict a random event, but I know you believe that it can.

I do it all the time Boney and post it right here.... pre-draw.


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    Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:56 pm - IP Logged

    Im not trying to piss you off Boney.......... Just messin with you. I hope you have a good night.......

    I have to check out of here........ Good night everyone....Bed

      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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      Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

      You studied advantage gambling?  What at an online university?

      These words mean nothing.  7 out of 14 draws is good.  You gave up.  You are a quitter.

      Bias people hurts many confirmation.What?

      You are only 20, why do you pretend to know so much?

      I don't.  I know what I know.  I learn as I go.  But I only learn by using logic.  I don't claim to understand things I've never studied.  To do so would be dis-engenuous.  And silly.

       

      You can't just believe anything you read.  In a text book, on a forum, or any where else.  You have to be able to confirm things objectively.

       

      7 our of 14 draws.... yeah it lasted for 14 draws.  You won't consistently win in the long run.  And I didn't. The long run doesn't take long to add up in a game like Pick 3..... and the number of players who stay ahead over a year are miniscule....

       

      You display the classic symptoms of confirmation bias.  You believe you can win, and when you do win, the affect it has on your confidence far outweighs the negative impact of losing.  It's what leads to so much of the superstition gamblers have.  I try to get away from this - as it significantly hurts poker players who don't notive they're mistakes that result in them winning some money.  But sometimes bad plays work - and if you're suffering from confirmation bias, you won't analyze mistakes in plays that caused you to win.


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        Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

        He was gone for a while but I think he lost all his money at the poker table and came back with proof that "winning doesn't work"..............  "My name is Boney"

        When It comes to winning money at gambling and devising new strategies Boney is virtually useless.

         

        Boney is like an old lady that sits at the penny slot machines for two hours.


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          Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:58 pm - IP Logged

          I don't.  I know what I know.  I learn as I go.  But I only learn by using logic.  I don't claim to understand things I've never studied.  To do so would be dis-engenuous.  And silly.

           

          You can't just believe anything you read.  In a text book, on a forum, or any where else.  You have to be able to confirm things objectively.

           

          7 our of 14 draws.... yeah it lasted for 14 draws.  You won't consistently win in the long run.  And I didn't. The long run doesn't take long to add up in a game like Pick 3..... and the number of players who stay ahead over a year are miniscule....

           

          You display the classic symptoms of confirmation bias.  You believe you can win, and when you do win, the affect it has on your confidence far outweighs the negative impact of losing.  It's what leads to so much of the superstition gamblers have.  I try to get away from this - as it significantly hurts poker players who don't notive they're mistakes that result in them winning some money.  But sometimes bad plays work - and if you're suffering from confirmation bias, you won't analyze mistakes in plays that caused you to win.

          Sleep

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

            Boney should go flip quarters for a hour and bring back the results. 

            No Pity!

            Says the guy who claims I don't understand basic 3rd grade math, yet doesn't see the relevance of standard deviations in games of chance.....

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

              When It comes to winning money at gambling and devising new strategies Boney is virtually useless.

               

              Boney is like an old lady that sits at the penny slot machines for two hours.

              Quite the contrary.  Slots are not profitable for the same reason as the lottery.  I've been proftable gambling for quite a while.  Not on the Lottery of course.


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                Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

                Says the guy who claims I don't understand basic 3rd grade math, yet doesn't see the relevance of standard deviations in games of chance.....

                I see the relevance in standard deviation.   I just dont understand the relevance of anything else you say.

                And I am sure you dont understand physical chemistry.

                Physical chemsitry will give you more insight into probability, then your stupid standard deviation.

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

                  I see the relevance in standard deviation.   I just dont understand the relevance of anything else you say.

                  And I am sure you dont understand physical chemistry.

                  Physical chemsitry will give you more insight into probability, then your stupid standard deviation.

                  You are absolutely correct.  I know nothing about physical chemistry.  I never claimed to.

                   

                  I don't think you do understand the relevance of standard deviation.  The relevance is that any results that aren't taken out to the point where the standard deviation is sufficiently small compared to sample size is meaningless because randomness allows for events with a few standard deviations to occur regularly.  That's why I used the coinflip as an example.  Flipping a coin 100 times would give you 50/50 with a STD DEV of 10, so 45/55 would be a completely normal result even if the odds are exactly 50/50.  43/57 may be slightly abnoral, but still reasonable.  Move up to 1 million trials and you would question the 50%/50% it if you get 450K/550K, but you would not if it was simply 499.75K/500.25K, b/c the STD DEV is 1000.

                   

                  The relevance is that nothing you can say or do will prove your theories right without having suffecient time to prove that they aren't just normal STD DEV.

                   

                  And from what I can tell, physical chemistry is not more relevant to gambling math than probability theory.  I could be mistaken, since I don't know what you're referring to, but if it is quantam physics related (which I know next to nothing about) then I'd have to guess it has no effect on macro-physical random events.

                   

                  At least - not obersvable events which are more accurately described by normal statistics.  Again - I'm not claiming that I understand that stuff.  But because I don't, I stick to what I do understand, and that's basic probability theory along with statistics such as Standard Deviations in order to perform to the best of MY ability.  I'm no genius - I'm no mathemetician.  I simply play poker.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

                    Im not trying to piss you off Boney.......... Just messin with you. I hope you have a good night.......

                    I have to check out of here........ Good night everyone....Bed

                    I realize you're just egging me on.  That's fine.  I actually agree with you on many other things (politically, we are probably more aligned than we are on these matters of faith vs proof)

                     

                    I'm just a little sick of this LottoBoner guy acting like he knows ridiculous amounts about concepts that, while theoritically interesting to some mathemeticians, have never been provably used for anything like the lottery, or basic gaming.

                     

                    For example, the fibonnacci sequence, chaos theory, etc.  Besides the fact that he's saying that I don't know the math I claim to know.  Which I do very well understand - because I wouldn't claim to if I didn't.  BTW, LottoBoner, you demonstrate little to no understanding of these concepts.  Which is fine - except you either pretend you do or haven't demonstrated your understanding of these concepts.

                     

                    Let me ask you a simple question.  If you understand STD DEV this should be easy to give an approximate answer.  You are intent on placing a wager on the a roulette wheel, for 2 spins.  The bet will be a straight up bet on any number of your choice.  Knowing that it will pay out 35 to 1 if you win, and that you will play for two spins with the same wager each time regardless of whether you win or lose the first bet, what is the EV and STD DEV of your bet?  (Assume that a bet is "1 unit" and that the wheel you are against has 1 zero)


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                      Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

                      I realize you're just egging me on.  That's fine.  I actually agree with you on many other things (politically, we are probably more aligned than we are on these matters of faith vs proof)

                       

                      I'm just a little sick of this LottoBoner guy acting like he knows ridiculous amounts about concepts that, while theoritically interesting to some mathemeticians, have never been provably used for anything like the lottery, or basic gaming.

                       

                      For example, the fibonnacci sequence, chaos theory, etc.  Besides the fact that he's saying that I don't know the math I claim to know.  Which I do very well understand - because I wouldn't claim to if I didn't.  BTW, LottoBoner, you demonstrate little to no understanding of these concepts.  Which is fine - except you either pretend you do or haven't demonstrated your understanding of these concepts.

                       

                      Let me ask you a simple question.  If you understand STD DEV this should be easy to give an approximate answer.  You are intent on placing a wager on the a roulette wheel, for 2 spins.  The bet will be a straight up bet on any number of your choice.  Knowing that it will pay out 35 to 1 if you win, and that you will play for two spins with the same wager each time regardless of whether you win or lose the first bet, what is the EV and STD DEV of your bet?  (Assume that a bet is "1 unit" and that the wheel you are against has 1 zero)

                      You can lead a horse to water...

                      I pass this question on to a croupier SergeM.

                      I dont concern myself with standard deviation.  Its too logical.  You are all right brain.  I am more left brain.

                      Saying you will not play a number on a roulette wheel after it repeats three times, is logical.

                      To play it a fourth time is illogical.  Knowing the standard deviation will not help you win.  You just see with intuition and you bet.

                      If your such an expert at standard deviation, and you cant win a jackpot, then I dont want to know it that well.

                      _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

                      Main Entry:standard deviation Function:noun Date:1894

                      1 : a measure of the dispersion of a frequency distribution that is the square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of the deviation of each of the class frequencies from the arithmetic mean of the frequency distribution;  also   : a similar quantity found by dividing by one less than the number of squares in the sum of squares instead of taking the arithmetic mean 2 : a parameter that indicates the way in which a probability function or a probability density function is centered around its mean and that is equal to the square root of the moment in which the deviation from the mean is squared

                      I dont see how knowing this has any relevance to visualizing a Lottery Flag Formation, or a Geometric Formation.

                        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                        Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                        I'll take that as "I say I understand it's relevance, but ask me a simple question regarding it and I can't answer it."

                         

                        I won't claim to understand things I don't.  That's something for you loony left brainers to go for.  I'll go ahead and use my logic so that I don't waste money on such an impossible task.\

                         

                        EDIT:  The fact that it is the same or a different number for the first and second spin has no effect on the answer to that question.

                         

                        Nor does somebodies decision to play the same number after multiple hits or not to.  In fact you call it illogical, but really it's illogical to play roulette at all unless you have some sort of physical edge through wheel bias or some similar concept.  Playing any number has the exact same odds given a non biased wheel - and therefore playing previously hit numbers has no affect on overall EV.  Therefore - the entirety of the scenario I presented was hypothetical in order to see if you really understood STD DEV, or were full of it when you said you did understand it's relevance.  Yet the last thing you stated is that your don't concern yourself with it, when it can't help you win.

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: December 18, 2012, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

                          Sleep

                          What a well thought out reply.


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                            Posted: December 18, 2012, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

                            What a well thought out reply.

                            Agree with stupidSleepSleepSleep

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                              Posted: December 18, 2012, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

                              Says the guy who claims I don't understand basic 3rd grade math, yet doesn't see the relevance of standard deviations in games of chance.....

                              If you don't know the "mean" you can't find standard deviation so it too is irrelevant. You're either looking for frequency distribution or probability density function and with either you must know the mean.

                                 
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