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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 16, 2012, 9:27 am - IP Logged

Set of 39 for PB. Sat. Dec. 15, 2012.

01 02 03 04 06 07 08 10 11 13 15 17 20 24 25 26 27 30 32 33 34 35 38 39 40 41 42 43 47 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 56 58 59

bonus ball 12

3 of 5 on this draw.......

Saturday, December 15, 2012          15 · 23 · 40 · 44 · 55     14$40 Million

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #99032
    October 18, 2010
    1439 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 16, 2012, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

    Thanks Boney for your response,

    I have a different take on playing lotteries as I'm not so concerned about sharing a jackpot as I am about winning one. For me, sharing one is better than never having won one at all.  Besides, sharing one doesn't lessen my chances of winning another one out right.

    Good luck to you.

    No problem, good luck to you as well.  I'd submit that it also doesn't raise your odds of winning, so it's preferable, but really it's very tiny in most states as it only affects the Jackpot.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: December 16, 2012, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

      Boney

      Sorry for the simplified explanations but I felt it necessary in this case.  You can rest assured that I understand

      the concept.  The problem here is not one of probability or deviations from the expected but more that you feel

      the need to impose upon others your basic understanding.   I take it that the concept of standard deviation

      is relatively new to you since you suggest that your past experiences with pick-3 left you with a few fallacious

      notions about how well you were doing. 

       

      Sorry about the format but it's only partly my bad.  I use firefox and it double spaces for some reason and I never

      took the time to see if it can be changed.  You have made it very plain that you believe that nothing can be done to

      improve ones game and that's your opinion.  Chance can be used to cover almost any deviation from the expected so

      unless you are one of those people who need to be patted on the back then I would say your job here is done.

       

      Many here at LP love the game and some believe they can build smarter sets than a lottery terminal's RNG can provide.

      Let me ask you a question so that your stance can be defined.   What would it take based on your advanced knowledge

      to define a winning system from one that does no better than chance?  From past engages with others of the same mind

      they seem to adjust the scales as it fits them.  The best methods I have ever seen are short term which rely on trends that

      are spotted in time to take advantage of.   Most of these are short lived and many like your self love to backtest them using

      the entire history of the game to prove them wrong.

       

      If using a static process then I would expect any method to fail because the drawing is random.  If however small trends

      happen every now and then which can be spotted and played successfully then while the trend may be a element of

      chance it's the player observations that can make the difference.  You are by no means the first person here to attempt

      to inform us of the error of our ways.  Maybe I should pick up a newer book on statistics as mine may be outdated.     

       

      PS. I think this has been mentioned already but "devation" is spelt deviation.  Not knocking your spelling as I make many 

            spelling and grammar errors myself.  Not writing a book here just conversing, just call me lazy for not hitting spell check.

      The grammatical quality of your postings here have improved dramatically over the year of my hiatus.  My compliments to your new editor.  By the way, you might remind him or her that since you hail from Missouri, most people would expect you to write "spelled" rather than "spelt."  Also, you may be proud to differ from me, but many people would be proud of you if you were willing to prove your methods work on the LP Prediction boards. 

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19895 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: December 16, 2012, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

        The grammatical quality of your postings here have improved dramatically over the year of my hiatus.  My compliments to your new editor.  By the way, you might remind him or her that since you hail from Missouri, most people would expect you to write "spelled" rather than "spelt."  Also, you may be proud to differ from me, but many people would be proud of you if you were willing to prove your methods work on the LP Prediction boards. 

        Who are these people who would be proud if he proved his system on the prediction board?  Aren't they able to come up with something on their own?

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: December 16, 2012, 10:36 pm - IP Logged

          Who are these people who would be proud if he proved his system on the prediction board?  Aren't they able to come up with something on their own?

          "Aren't they able to come up with something on their own?"

          No.

          The only way RL can get out of the rut he's in at the present time is to get lucky and match more than 4 numbers and prove somehow that his winning selection was generated by his program.  If he doesn't post it here on the boards prior to the draw, his only recourse will be to ensure he gets on TV so he can hold up a sign for the cameras clearly identifying himself as the LP Digit Master developer.  However, since 4 baggers are much more likely, he has a much better chance of proving efficacy by posting here on the Prediction Boards.

          --Jimmy4164

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19895 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 17, 2012, 12:16 am - IP Logged

            "Aren't they able to come up with something on their own?"

            No.

            The only way RL can get out of the rut he's in at the present time is to get lucky and match more than 4 numbers and prove somehow that his winning selection was generated by his program.  If he doesn't post it here on the boards prior to the draw, his only recourse will be to ensure he gets on TV so he can hold up a sign for the cameras clearly identifying himself as the LP Digit Master developer.  However, since 4 baggers are much more likely, he has a much better chance of proving efficacy by posting here on the Prediction Boards.

            --Jimmy4164

            Sounds like the only ones in a rut are those waiting for RL to prove his system works.  If RL system doesn't work any better than some of the other systems members have thought up, they'll have a long wait.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
              March 13, 2008
              4060 Posts
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              Posted: December 17, 2012, 7:28 am - IP Logged

              "Aren't they able to come up with something on their own?"

              No.

              The only way RL can get out of the rut he's in at the present time is to get lucky and match more than 4 numbers and prove somehow that his winning selection was generated by his program.  If he doesn't post it here on the boards prior to the draw, his only recourse will be to ensure he gets on TV so he can hold up a sign for the cameras clearly identifying himself as the LP Digit Master developer.  However, since 4 baggers are much more likely, he has a much better chance of proving efficacy by posting here on the Prediction Boards.

              --Jimmy4164

              Jimbozo

                  Try as I might I have yet to understand why you feel the necessity to continue on your present coarse of posting.

              You may find this hard to believe but you never enter into my thoughts until I read one of your many babbling.  I

              Would ponder to guess that the only attention you receive is when I make reply so I will break my own rules and 

              take another stab at this.

               

                  You say that if I happen to win another jack-pot that it will be a mere matter of chance,  I on the other hand while

              I accept that chance may play a role it is only part of the equation.  I have never confessed that I could win on demand

              but somehow you have came to that conculsion.  Where you came up with such a rediculous idea is beyond me.

               

                  Boney made a statement that he was able to reach as much as 80% ROI and thought that it was nothing much to talk

              about.  This left me in limbo until I realized that it was most likely chatter.   Any system that allows one to play more tickets

              at such a greatly reduced cost would in my opinion suggest a good if not great system or method.  80% ROI equates to

              20 cents per ticket or 5 times the playing power of the average player. 

               

                   Anytime one can put more lines into play the odds are more favorable for that person.  Buying two tickets for power

              ball cuts the odds in half.  Buying five tickets reduces the odds from 1 in 175,223,510 to 5 in 175,223,510 which can be

              reduced to 175,223,510/5 = 1 in 35,044,702.  If I can buy 5 lines for the cost of a single line than I consider that a vast

              improvement.   While this ideology does not suggest that I will win the next JP it does put me in a better position.

               

                  Lets say that he has reached this level of success which I believe is possible and he is able to play 5 lines for the cost

              of a single ticket.   Each 5 number line has 5 possible match 4of5 and 10 possible chances of matching 3 of the winning

              numbers.  This means that five lines provides 25 chances at a 4of5 and 50 chances at matching 3 of the winning

              numbers. 

               

                  These wins most likely account for the 80% ROI but that's what it's all about.  If 80% is able to fly under your radar without

              setting off any buzzers then what is your minimum or low level trigger, 81, 83, What?   If 80% ROI could be reached then it

              migh also be possible to reach 81% and if 81% than why not 85 or even higher?    Sorry I have tortured you for so long with

              my nonchalant writings but as I have stated many times, I am not writing a book.  If I were I would not feel the need to reply

              or mention you at all.

               

                  I guess one must admit as I always have that chance plays a role but maybe it's the size of the role that chance plays that

              should be the deciding factor.  There are many factors to consider which can improve one chances of doing better when playing

              the lottery when taken over the coarse of several drawings.  These are advantages that the RNG's at the lottery sales terminals

              don't consider.  You say that you spend $6.00 twice a week and feel the RNG is going to give you a fair shot equal to any other

              ticket rather it's a SP or QP.   I still say that if QP's are that great then why did it take almost a billion of them to win the last big

              JP with odds of 1 in175,223,510.  No self respecting system builder would build a system that had to pick 4 times as many lines

              as there are possible within the whole matrix. 

               

                 In closing I have to mention that I watched your hero last night and was left even more confused with him then I am with you.

              I left off counting the number of times that God was mentioned in that weak speech that was used as a soap box to support

              taking away guns from Americans.  What he should have been focused on was that this deranged person was a product of the

              system which now won't accept the fact that they are the root cause.   I have no doubt that this person was abused in school

              and rejected.  Shame on you Mr President for taking advantage of such a serious situation to gain support for your cause.  I think

              this will be his 14th or 15th attempt.   It seems funny to me that the above mentioned want's a 1 million man, or shall I say young

              man civilian task-force that is armed at least as well or better than our military while at the same time want's to cut defence spending.

              I remember watching footage from the war in the middle east where they were piling up bodies of women and children which were

              higher than the heads of the people stacking them.  I did not see any tears for these children by our officials.  How Sad....   When

              will people open their eyes and demand a real change that is more than just a talking head with a hidden agenda.

               

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                Avatar

                United States
                Member #132675
                September 9, 2012
                49 Posts
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                Posted: December 17, 2012, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

                Sadly, no you cannot.  I guess I can't rule out the possibility that there are still big developments to be made in probability theory - I just highly doubt it and am not a mathemetician.  I understand basic statistics for use in general gambling... because I like gambling.  Understanding probability can't change probability, but it can allow you to play other games at an advantage, like poker and blackjack.

                (However at the end, I will re-iterate my plan of attack on lottery games)

                 

                Essentially my "journey" went like this.  I started out playing the lottery for fun.  I got pretty into it, I used this site for a while to try to beat the Pick 3.  Taking statistics opened my eyes to the realities of standard deviation and a better understanding of provable concepts.  I went to a casino once, and lost some decent amount of money playing blackjack, and won a little playing poker just getting dealt really nice hands.  I decided to read up on blackjack strategy.  Studying blackjack strategy led me to study gambling which led me to advantage gambling.  I'm still a novice as far as that goes - but I understand the underlying principles that make it possible.

                 

                You can count cards through a shoe of blackjack, for example.  I don't actually do this for money, I just learned it as a hobby which I rarely practice now.  I have run a fake bankroll of 12500 dollars into over 80000 over the course of a couple hundred shoes of blackjack.  This was far more than the average expectation, and I've also lost a couple of bankrolls, and overall I'm very close to the theoritical win.

                 

                I don't play blackjack b/c of the bankroll required, the fact that casinos don't want you to and that I think Poker as far more interesting and challenging.  That's something I'm trying to go for at the end of May.

                 

                As for my plan of attack on the Lottery, there are some useful statistics that would allow a player with good observations skills to lose less on average than other players.  Basically, you pick combinations of numbers that other self pick players are less likely to pick.  For most lottery games, this just very slightly increases your expected long term win, because it would only make it slightly less likely that you will share a Jackpot if you win it.  So, it's not very useful, but slightly in a game like MM.

                 

                But in a state like NJ which uses pari-mutual prizes, I've found that I can increase my average expected payback on a the Cash 5 from around 50% to around 80% if I only play when the jackpot is high, and I use groups of numbers which other players tend not to choose when self picking.  This is because the jackpot is less likely to be split AND the second and third tier prizes go up in value if you find these specific groups of combos.  It's still not an advantage bet, but there are essentially no available advantage bets that will allow you to win 100s of thousands or millions with a dollar... so I still play once in a while.  And when I do, that's how I play.  (If you were really very interested in the exact correlation I found, I can share it.  It's not that big of a deal to me.)

                I don't understand why people say not to pick numbers that someone else picked so that when they/you win the jackpot you don't have to share it. Wouldn't you rather share a $2 million or $200 million jackpot rather than never win anything? Hell, I'll be glad to share a $1 million jackpot! And suppose that allright, you didn't want to share the jackpot, how in the world would you know what numbers other people picked? Do you have access to what numbers have been drawn for a particular game draw date? This doesn't make any sense to me at all. Can you please explain these two points. It's like telling someone, "Yeah, I have some advice for you on how to win the lottery - pick the right numbers!"What?


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 17, 2012, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

                  Jimbozo

                      Try as I might I have yet to understand why you feel the necessity to continue on your present coarse of posting.

                  You may find this hard to believe but you never enter into my thoughts until I read one of your many babbling.  I

                  Would ponder to guess that the only attention you receive is when I make reply so I will break my own rules and 

                  take another stab at this.

                   

                      You say that if I happen to win another jack-pot that it will be a mere matter of chance,  I on the other hand while

                  I accept that chance may play a role it is only part of the equation.  I have never confessed that I could win on demand

                  but somehow you have came to that conculsion.  Where you came up with such a rediculous idea is beyond me.

                   

                      Boney made a statement that he was able to reach as much as 80% ROI and thought that it was nothing much to talk

                  about.  This left me in limbo until I realized that it was most likely chatter.   Any system that allows one to play more tickets

                  at such a greatly reduced cost would in my opinion suggest a good if not great system or method.  80% ROI equates to

                  20 cents per ticket or 5 times the playing power of the average player. 

                   

                       Anytime one can put more lines into play the odds are more favorable for that person.  Buying two tickets for power

                  ball cuts the odds in half.  Buying five tickets reduces the odds from 1 in 175,223,510 to 5 in 175,223,510 which can be

                  reduced to 175,223,510/5 = 1 in 35,044,702.  If I can buy 5 lines for the cost of a single line than I consider that a vast

                  improvement.   While this ideology does not suggest that I will win the next JP it does put me in a better position.

                   

                      Lets say that he has reached this level of success which I believe is possible and he is able to play 5 lines for the cost

                  of a single ticket.   Each 5 number line has 5 possible match 4of5 and 10 possible chances of matching 3 of the winning

                  numbers.  This means that five lines provides 25 chances at a 4of5 and 50 chances at matching 3 of the winning

                  numbers. 

                   

                      These wins most likely account for the 80% ROI but that's what it's all about.  If 80% is able to fly under your radar without

                  setting off any buzzers then what is your minimum or low level trigger, 81, 83, What?   If 80% ROI could be reached then it

                  migh also be possible to reach 81% and if 81% than why not 85 or even higher?    Sorry I have tortured you for so long with

                  my nonchalant writings but as I have stated many times, I am not writing a book.  If I were I would not feel the need to reply

                  or mention you at all.

                   

                      I guess one must admit as I always have that chance plays a role but maybe it's the size of the role that chance plays that

                  should be the deciding factor.  There are many factors to consider which can improve one chances of doing better when playing

                  the lottery when taken over the coarse of several drawings.  These are advantages that the RNG's at the lottery sales terminals

                  don't consider.  You say that you spend $6.00 twice a week and feel the RNG is going to give you a fair shot equal to any other

                  ticket rather it's a SP or QP.   I still say that if QP's are that great then why did it take almost a billion of them to win the last big

                  JP with odds of 1 in175,223,510.  No self respecting system builder would build a system that had to pick 4 times as many lines

                  as there are possible within the whole matrix. 

                   

                     In closing I have to mention that I watched your hero last night and was left even more confused with him then I am with you.

                  I left off counting the number of times that God was mentioned in that weak speech that was used as a soap box to support

                  taking away guns from Americans.  What he should have been focused on was that this deranged person was a product of the

                  system which now won't accept the fact that they are the root cause.   I have no doubt that this person was abused in school

                  and rejected.  Shame on you Mr President for taking advantage of such a serious situation to gain support for your cause.  I think

                  this will be his 14th or 15th attempt.   It seems funny to me that the above mentioned want's a 1 million man, or shall I say young

                  man civilian task-force that is armed at least as well or better than our military while at the same time want's to cut defence spending.

                  I remember watching footage from the war in the middle east where they were piling up bodies of women and children which were

                  higher than the heads of the people stacking them.  I did not see any tears for these children by our officials.  How Sad....   When

                  will people open their eyes and demand a real change that is more than just a talking head with a hidden agenda.

                   

                  RL

                  First of all, I believe you are mistaken about Boney526's 80% ROI.  I seem to recall him mentioning 80% within the context of a reference to the fact that Kentucky had a bad month in their Pick-3 game when they had to pay out 80 cents for each dollar they took in, when their normal payout schedule results in 60 cents.  This represents a 33% (80/60) above the norm payout for them, which is completely within what can be expected from randomness.  I would guess it's probably somewhere around the 3rd standard deviation from the mean of 60 cents.  If you can point us to a post where Boney626 claimed an 80% ROI, I suspect we will learn that it was a short term event.  BTW, an 80% ROI would indicate a return of $1.80 for each $1.00 invested.  What you are describing above is a 20% LOSS.

                  The reason I keep harping on the LP Prediction Boards is because it's the only way you can prove that your system is better than Quick Picks.  Boney526, myself, and others have attempted to explain how the variance and standard deviations of random processes can explain all of the patterns you observe in the lottery, to no avail.  Since you reject these propositions, as well as Monte Carlo (Computer Simulation) techniques which clearly reject your hypotheses, your only recourse is to post your system's predictions, before the drawings, and let everyone see for themselves how well you can do.  There is no requirement that you must post every day, so your method of waiting for a "trend" to commence, is accommodated for you as well.

                  It's valid when you point out that a system that performs above expected allows players to try for a jackpot at a reduced cost, even though they are still losing money.  Don't you want to show everyone how your system can accomplish this for them by providing them with more 2, 3,and 4 number hits?  The LP Prediction Boards are your ticket to success!

                  --Jimmy4164

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19895 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 17, 2012, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                    I don't understand why people say not to pick numbers that someone else picked so that when they/you win the jackpot you don't have to share it. Wouldn't you rather share a $2 million or $200 million jackpot rather than never win anything? Hell, I'll be glad to share a $1 million jackpot! And suppose that allright, you didn't want to share the jackpot, how in the world would you know what numbers other people picked? Do you have access to what numbers have been drawn for a particular game draw date? This doesn't make any sense to me at all. Can you please explain these two points. It's like telling someone, "Yeah, I have some advice for you on how to win the lottery - pick the right numbers!"What?

                    "Not playing combinations that could be birthdays because you might have to share a jackpot if you win" was something I first read on Gail Howard's website and have seen repeated many times since.  Apparently many of the lottery experts on this site are just repeating something they read rather than something they know.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 17, 2012, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                      "Not playing combinations that could be birthdays because you might have to share a jackpot if you win" was something I first read on Gail Howard's website and have seen repeated many times since.  Apparently many of the lottery experts on this site are just repeating something they read rather than something they know.

                      I Agree! And Boney is one of those lottery "experts" who thinks "EV" is a good idea.Green laugh

                        noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                        Bay Area - California
                        United States
                        Member #136477
                        December 12, 2012
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                        Offline
                        Posted: December 17, 2012, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

                        There is no exact science on this..if there was, people would be winning weekly- no daily.
                        Once those balls are spun it all a level playing field. How else does one account for $500 million jackpots?

                          x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

                          United States
                          Member #48046
                          December 7, 2006
                          1699 Posts
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                          Posted: December 17, 2012, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                          What's Up  Ronnie316 !!

                             Earlier,  RL-RANDOMLOGIC,   Spoke of  "Trends"

                                    ...also could be called  Trends and Tendencies

                                                                   Look at This,

                          11-6-12  Test:   31  27  40  14  7   (15)

                                         Test:   3  15   18   17  46 (14)

                                         Test:   35  46  27  38  10  (8)

                                      DRAW:   35  32   3     5   13  (6)

                             The 35 was "Touching"  in the last Test  and the Draw ......

                                                  35  Repeated to Next Draw

                           

                                                               Want More???

                          12-7-12   Test:    56  41  37  28  43   (40)

                                         Test:     47  14   3   31  43   (32)

                                         Test:     22   13   44  25  3   (34)

                                     DRAW:      43    7    44  51  56  (4)

                                  See How the  44  is "Touching"  from Last Test and  Draw ?

                                          44  Repeated to Next Draw

                          I'm always looking for Something No Matter How  Small

                           to give me a Leg Up     .....  even if it's One Number 

                                  I'll Cue You in Next time  ( If there ever is one)

                           and You put  BANKER   or  Key Number in   ALL PLAYS   


                            United States
                            Member #116268
                            September 7, 2011
                            20244 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 17, 2012, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                             I like it, let us know how it progresses.


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 17, 2012, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

                              First of all, I believe you are mistaken about Boney526's 80% ROI.  I seem to recall him mentioning 80% within the context of a reference to the fact that Kentucky had a bad month in their Pick-3 game when they had to pay out 80 cents for each dollar they took in, when their normal payout schedule results in 60 cents.  This represents a 33% (80/60) above the norm payout for them, which is completely within what can be expected from randomness.  I would guess it's probably somewhere around the 3rd standard deviation from the mean of 60 cents.  If you can point us to a post where Boney626 claimed an 80% ROI, I suspect we will learn that it was a short term event.  BTW, an 80% ROI would indicate a return of $1.80 for each $1.00 invested.  What you are describing above is a 20% LOSS.

                              The reason I keep harping on the LP Prediction Boards is because it's the only way you can prove that your system is better than Quick Picks.  Boney526, myself, and others have attempted to explain how the variance and standard deviations of random processes can explain all of the patterns you observe in the lottery, to no avail.  Since you reject these propositions, as well as Monte Carlo (Computer Simulation) techniques which clearly reject your hypotheses, your only recourse is to post your system's predictions, before the drawings, and let everyone see for themselves how well you can do.  There is no requirement that you must post every day, so your method of waiting for a "trend" to commence, is accommodated for you as well.

                              It's valid when you point out that a system that performs above expected allows players to try for a jackpot at a reduced cost, even though they are still losing money.  Don't you want to show everyone how your system can accomplish this for them by providing them with more 2, 3,and 4 number hits?  The LP Prediction Boards are your ticket to success!

                              --Jimmy4164

                              I have already "proven" that the power of prediction and intuition works. Ive done it both here AND on the predictions board but because it can't be verified with a math formula it was dismissed as "just luck".

                                 
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