United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on December 17, 2012

First of all, I believe you are mistaken about Boney526's 80% ROI. I seem to recall him mentioning 80% within the context of a reference to the fact that Kentucky had a bad month in their Pick-3 game when they had to pay out 80 cents for each dollar they took in, when their normal payout schedule results in 60 cents. This represents a 33% (80/60) above the norm payout for them, which is completely within what can be expected from randomness. I would guess it's probably somewhere around the 3rd standard deviation from the mean of 60 cents. If you can point us to a post where Boney626 claimed an 80% ROI, I suspect we will learn that it was a short term event. BTW, an 80% ROI would indicate a return of $1.80 for each $1.00 invested. What you are describing above is a 20% LOSS.

The reason I keep harping on the LP Prediction Boards is because it's the only way you can prove that your system is better than Quick Picks. Boney526, myself, and others have attempted to explain how the variance and standard deviations of random processes can explain all of the patterns you observe in the lottery, to no avail. Since you reject these propositions, as well as Monte Carlo (Computer Simulation) techniques which clearly reject your hypotheses, your only recourse is to post your system's predictions, before the drawings, and let everyone see for themselves how well you can do. There is no requirement that you must post every day, so your method of waiting for a "trend" to commence, is accommodated for you as well.

It's valid when you point out that a system that performs above expected allows players to try for a jackpot at a reduced cost, even though they are still losing money. Don't you want to show everyone how your system can accomplish this for them by providing them with more 2, 3,and 4 number hits? The LP Prediction Boards are your ticket to success!

--Jimmy4164

I'm up well over $16 million on my predictions, and I don't think anyone else on LP can make that claim.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7302 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on December 15, 2012

You seem not to understand that probability theory isn't simply "it will happen x out of y times." It's closer to it should happen "X our of Y times with Z standard deviation." And therefore, anything is possible, but certain things are more probable.

Of course you can go back and find a froup of 28 numbers which won the last 7 drawings. I'm willing to bet you can't list 28 numbers which win the NEXT 7 drawings. There's no such thing as blowing away the odds because every single possible event is contained within those odds.

Randomlogic, I will not read anything you write unless you format it in paragraphs. I'm not going to scramble my head trying to decode your insane formatting, only to be told something about basic probability theory which is probably either wrong or just a simplified explanation of standard devation by somone who probably doesn't even know what standard deviation is.

Allow me to be clear - ANYBODY who tells me I'm wrong about probability theory is ignoring every shred of negative evidence the real world provides them with, and only counting the odd events in their lives. There's simply no other answer except that you get lucky all the time. But let's discount that.

EG: Back when I used to play Pick 3 and the Lottery people always thought I won a lot. They didn't look at how much I SPENT though. People always seem to see exactly what they want to.

I thought when I wrote "not written in stone" you understood I wasn't saying "it must happen".

"Of course you can go back and find a froup of 28 numbers which won the last 7 drawings."

I said "groups" because there are at least 29 groups of 28 numbers that matched five numbers in 7 consecutive drawings.

"There's no such thing as blowing away the odds because every single possible event is contained within those odds."

A group of 28 numbers has 98,280 combinations which is 1/39 of the total combinations and the current mean is about 7 using the game history. We already know it's possible for groups of 28 numbers to match the mean in 7 consecutive drawings so the next step is to determine the probable number of times 28 numbers or less will be drawn in 7 consecutive drawings.

"I'm willing to bet you can't list 28 numbers which win the NEXT 7 drawings."

Why would I need to predict groups of 28 numbers will match five numbers in the next 7 drawings when I know for fact many groups will match five numbers in the next five drawings?

The odds against a 4 if 4 of 28 number wheel having a five number match when 5 of the numbers are drawn is about 4 to 1. If I knew which 28 number group was going to match five numbers in the next 7 drawings, I wouldn't be wasting my time discussing probability.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7302 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on December 17, 2012

I have already "proven" that the power of prediction and intuition works. Ive done it both here AND on the predictions board but because it can't be verified with a math formula it was dismissed as "just luck".

We've already determined if the 28 number group matched five numbers every 15 drawings a small profit could be made by playing an about 5000 combo 4 if 4 wheel without matching the bonus number. And the last time I looked, we can only make 50 MM predictions so it would be impossible use the Prediction Board for verifcation. Posting the 28 numbers before the drawing and placing them into the wheel in the same order is all the verification I need.

How many times did your 28 numbers match five numbers in 39 drawings?

New Jersey United States Member #99032 October 18, 2010 1439 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Hulk311 on December 17, 2012

I don't understand why people say not to pick numbers that someone else picked so that when they/you win the jackpot you don't have to share it. Wouldn't you rather share a $2 million or $200 million jackpot rather than never win anything? Hell, I'll be glad to share a $1 million jackpot! And suppose that allright, you didn't want to share the jackpot, how in the world would you know what numbers other people picked? Do you have access to what numbers have been drawn for a particular game draw date? This doesn't make any sense to me at all. Can you please explain these two points. It's like telling someone, "Yeah, I have some advice for you on how to win the lottery - pick the right numbers!"

Because you have no idea what numbers will come up, and combinations that are already picked and are not already picked have the same odds. So if I have the same odds of winning, but a lower chance of sharing the Jackpot if I win, that's a superior bet. Like I said - that effect is relatively small in games that don't offer pari-mutual prize pools. But B/C I almost exclusively play NJ Cash 5, which distributes ALL prizes pari-mutually, it significantly increases my ROI.

Of course I'd rather share a jackpot than not win one. But that's not the option as presented to me, is it? I don't know the winning numbers, and neither does anyone else.

I pick combinations of numbers that self pick players are LESS likely to play, by always including numbers higher than 31, because most self pick players use dates. I actually found a specific "pattern" in how I can pick numbers for that one game which will increase the average payouts for all of the prizes. Pretty nifty, IMO.

New Jersey United States Member #99032 October 18, 2010 1439 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 9:10 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on December 17, 2012

First of all, I believe you are mistaken about Boney526's 80% ROI. I seem to recall him mentioning 80% within the context of a reference to the fact that Kentucky had a bad month in their Pick-3 game when they had to pay out 80 cents for each dollar they took in, when their normal payout schedule results in 60 cents. This represents a 33% (80/60) above the norm payout for them, which is completely within what can be expected from randomness. I would guess it's probably somewhere around the 3rd standard deviation from the mean of 60 cents. If you can point us to a post where Boney626 claimed an 80% ROI, I suspect we will learn that it was a short term event. BTW, an 80% ROI would indicate a return of $1.80 for each $1.00 invested. What you are describing above is a 20% LOSS.

The reason I keep harping on the LP Prediction Boards is because it's the only way you can prove that your system is better than Quick Picks. Boney526, myself, and others have attempted to explain how the variance and standard deviations of random processes can explain all of the patterns you observe in the lottery, to no avail. Since you reject these propositions, as well as Monte Carlo (Computer Simulation) techniques which clearly reject your hypotheses, your only recourse is to post your system's predictions, before the drawings, and let everyone see for themselves how well you can do. There is no requirement that you must post every day, so your method of waiting for a "trend" to commence, is accommodated for you as well.

It's valid when you point out that a system that performs above expected allows players to try for a jackpot at a reduced cost, even though they are still losing money. Don't you want to show everyone how your system can accomplish this for them by providing them with more 2, 3,and 4 number hits? The LP Prediction Boards are your ticket to success!

--Jimmy4164

No, he wasn't mistaken, I have found a way to increase the return on specifically the New Jersey Cash 5 to about 80 cents per dollar. (I didn't do the math, it may be closer to 75 cents/dollar.) Although he didn't describe the process, so let me be clear, IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE ODDS OF WINNING. It does, however, help you win more in states which have pari-mutual prizes. It can very slightly help you in other states as long as the JP is progressive on the game your playing. It won't help at all against a fixed paytable.

It's based off of the fact that all of the game's prizes are parimutual. I pick combos like 14-26-32-34-37 which have 3 numbers higher than 31, since self pick players tend to play numbers lower than 31. I tend to avoid patterns (such as 36-37-38) just to avoid the tendency some people have to lay out patterns on their play slip. Essentially, when I play, I wait for a huge jackpot and play in a manner which is likely to net me a higher prize IF I WIN. I cannot change the odds of me winning, but since the State does parimutual prizes, I can affect my ROI like that. I did a rough estimate of the ROI in my head, and got around 80% assuming a decent chance of me splitting the JP and paying taxes on it. I'd obviously only play when there's a huge jackpot.

It has nothing to do with changing the odds. That is impossible. I don't have a 80% ROI in real play, since I play so rarely and haven't won any prize more than 11 dollars on the game I was talking about, I meant theoritically in the long run the ROI would be about .75-.80 of the money spent.

New Jersey United States Member #99032 October 18, 2010 1439 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on December 17, 2012

I thought when I wrote "not written in stone" you understood I wasn't saying "it must happen".

"Of course you can go back and find a froup of 28 numbers which won the last 7 drawings."

I said "groups" because there are at least 29 groups of 28 numbers that matched five numbers in 7 consecutive drawings.

"There's no such thing as blowing away the odds because every single possible event is contained within those odds."

A group of 28 numbers has 98,280 combinations which is 1/39 of the total combinations and the current mean is about 7 using the game history. We already know it's possible for groups of 28 numbers to match the mean in 7 consecutive drawings so the next step is to determine the probable number of times 28 numbers or less will be drawn in 7 consecutive drawings.

"I'm willing to bet you can't list 28 numbers which win the NEXT 7 drawings."

Why would I need to predict groups of 28 numbers will match five numbers in the next 7 drawings when I know for fact many groups will match five numbers in the next five drawings?

The odds against a 4 if 4 of 28 number wheel having a five number match when 5 of the numbers are drawn is about 4 to 1. If I knew which 28 number group was going to match five numbers in the next 7 drawings, I wouldn't be wasting my time discussing probability.

I think you are taking my post too literally. My point is it's all completely unpredictable. I'd be willing to bet there is nothing you can do to pick 28 numbers which match more often than a random set would, if you could play long enough to hit the long run. Although re-reading this post, I'm not quite sure what your intentions are. Like I'm not sure if you're trying to argue against a point I made or not.

I also don't know what you mean by the mean is about 7. The mean of what? Honestly I have no idea what you meant in that second and thrid paragraphs. I really have no idea what you're talking about so I can't properly respond..... such as the fact that you said you know that many groups will match 5 numbers in the next 5 drawings. That's a true statement, sure, but what is it's relevance?

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19824 Posts Offline

Posted: December 17, 2012, 10:39 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on December 17, 2012

There is no exact science on this..if there was, people would be winning weekly- no daily. Once those balls are spun it all a level playing field. How else does one account for $500 million jackpots?

Science or not lotteries are very exact what has to be done to win the jackpots. Being close doesn't pay even a percent of what the jackpots pay even though the combinations close enough to be worth anything are less than 2% of the possible combinations.

Some level playing field, you are either at the one point on the field that wins out of millions or you lose.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 1:41 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on December 17, 2012

No, he wasn't mistaken, I have found a way to increase the return on specifically the New Jersey Cash 5 to about 80 cents per dollar. (I didn't do the math, it may be closer to 75 cents/dollar.) Although he didn't describe the process, so let me be clear, IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE ODDS OF WINNING. It does, however, help you win more in states which have pari-mutual prizes. It can very slightly help you in other states as long as the JP is progressive on the game your playing. It won't help at all against a fixed paytable.

It's based off of the fact that all of the game's prizes are parimutual. I pick combos like 14-26-32-34-37 which have 3 numbers higher than 31, since self pick players tend to play numbers lower than 31. I tend to avoid patterns (such as 36-37-38) just to avoid the tendency some people have to lay out patterns on their play slip. Essentially, when I play, I wait for a huge jackpot and play in a manner which is likely to net me a higher prize IF I WIN. I cannot change the odds of me winning, but since the State does parimutual prizes, I can affect my ROI like that. I did a rough estimate of the ROI in my head, and got around 80% assuming a decent chance of me splitting the JP and paying taxes on it. I'd obviously only play when there's a huge jackpot.

It has nothing to do with changing the odds. That is impossible. I don't have a 80% ROI in real play, since I play so rarely and haven't won any prize more than 11 dollars on the game I was talking about, I meant theoritically in the long run the ROI would be about .75-.80 of the money spent.

Thanks for the correction and clarification Boney. We're on the same page. I confused you with someone else on the Kentucky Pick-3 issue. To avoid further confusion on the question of ROI, I think it might be a good idea to properly define it. When we talk about a return of 0.80 on a 1.00 bet, what we're really describing is a -20% ROI rather than an 80% ROI.