United States Member #124493 March 14, 2012 7023 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on December 18, 2012

Fair enough.

It can't be calculated. Which is why I'm just saying it can't be proven. And I won't invest in things that can't be proven to be profitable. I won't invest my TIME or MONEY.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7314 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on December 18, 2012

Again. The mean what is 1 and the mean what is around 7? Of course it's possible to win more than 1 in 39 in short tests. I can also flip a coin and it's possible to have 3 heads and 7 tails. What's the point?

It's not possible to create a system which averages more than the odds dictate. A set of numbers can win more than they should an average in the short term, but not the long term.

I don't get what you guys don't understand about this simple concept. It's like if the number "5" came out two draws in a row you'd claim that probability is wrong since that number should come out less than every draw on average.

"The mean what is 1 and the mean what is around 7?"

I did some very sloppy research and read a post from this month saying there were 300 MM drawings. The mean is actually 20 for the game history.

"Of course it's possible to win more than 1 in 39 in short tests."

The only possible long test is the history of the game and that's 781 drawings. You're mileage might vary, but to me 0.02% is considered a very short test.

"It's not possible to create a system which averages more than the odds dictate."

It's mathematically possible to place all 56 numbers in the correct order into 12 line wheel and have a five number match. Not saying it's easy, but it's possible. Better yet use a 46 combo wheel and use all the bonus numbers.

"It's like if the number "5" came out two draws in a row you'd claim that probability is wrong since that number should come out less than every draw on average."

The here question is "do some number combinations have better odds" and because we know there will be several 28 number groups matching five numbers in the last and next 5 consecutive drawings, the answer is yes. If you want to use "5" repeating as an example, there is a probability of numbers repeating. If the more numbers are repeating than the probability, a system might include using that.

For individual numbers in the last 50 drawings the average should be 4 or 5 hits, but less than 50% of the numbers averaged that. The majority were more frequent of less frequent. There are many ways to create a group of 28 numbers that should beat probability over short periods and many others in other short periods.

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on December 18, 2012

Fair enough.

It can't be calculated. Which is why I'm just saying it can't be proven. And I won't invest in things that can't be proven to be profitable. I won't invest my TIME or MONEY.

But LR-Randomlogic thinks he proved the efficacy of his system by winning $300 over 6 or 7 draws.

There are 4 types of lottery players here:

1) Those who understand the math and choose to play anyway, subtracting their costs from their entertainment budgets.

2) Those who do NOT understand the math and spend more than they can afford.

3) Those who do NOT understand the math, but are responsible and intelligent enough to recognize that the State Lotteries hold a 50% house edge overall and consequently, play within their means.

4) Those who understand the math, but also receive compensation for propogating innumeracy, contributing greatly to the losses of those in 2) above.

Cancer has been characterized by a well known oncologist as "TheEmperorof All Maladies" in his book with that title. If a definitive cure for cancer is ever found, I'm afraid that Innumeracy will take its place.

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on December 18, 2012

But LR-Randomlogic thinks he proved the efficacy of his system by winning $300 over 6 or 7 draws.

There are 4 types of lottery players here:

1) Those who understand the math and choose to play anyway, subtracting their costs from their entertainment budgets.

2) Those who do NOT understand the math and spend more than they can afford.

3) Those who do NOT understand the math, but are responsible and intelligent enough to recognize that the State Lotteries hold a 50% house edge overall and consequently, play within their means.

4) Those who understand the math, but also receive compensation for propogating innumeracy, contributing greatly to the losses of those in 2) above.

Cancer has been characterized by a well known oncologist as "TheEmperorof All Maladies" in his book with that title. If a definitive cure for cancer is ever found, I'm afraid that Innumeracy will take its place.

--Jimmy4164

You sound like your trying to be some sort of genius.........

If the odds are not variable why does the lottery call then "overall odds"?

United States Member #124493 March 14, 2012 7023 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on December 18, 2012

"The mean what is 1 and the mean what is around 7?"

I did some very sloppy research and read a post from this month saying there were 300 MM drawings. The mean is actually 20 for the game history.

"Of course it's possible to win more than 1 in 39 in short tests."

The only possible long test is the history of the game and that's 781 drawings. You're mileage might vary, but to me 0.02% is considered a very short test.

"It's not possible to create a system which averages more than the odds dictate."

It's mathematically possible to place all 56 numbers in the correct order into 12 line wheel and have a five number match. Not saying it's easy, but it's possible. Better yet use a 46 combo wheel and use all the bonus numbers.

"It's like if the number "5" came out two draws in a row you'd claim that probability is wrong since that number should come out less than every draw on average."

The here question is "do some number combinations have better odds" and because we know there will be several 28 number groups matching five numbers in the last and next 5 consecutive drawings, the answer is yes. If you want to use "5" repeating as an example, there is a probability of numbers repeating. If the more numbers are repeating than the probability, a system might include using that.

For individual numbers in the last 50 drawings the average should be 4 or 5 hits, but less than 50% of the numbers averaged that. The majority were more frequent of less frequent. There are many ways to create a group of 28 numbers that should beat probability over short periods and many others in other short periods.

The only possible long test is the history of the game and that's 781 drawings. You're mileage might vary, but to me 0.02% is considered a very short test.

Boney still hasn't passed his third grade math class.

A coin flipping three heads then seven tails is important if you want to utilize the Law of Large Numbers.

But talking math to boney is like trying to teach a monkey to divide fractions.

(which I am sure some of them can do)

The flag formation is a heavily repeating pattern, so boney you need to go do your homework before you open your big mouth.You shouldn't talk about things you know nothing about as if you were some sort of authority.

I could prove you wrong easily with one graphical picture. But you probably failed art class too. Have you ever used excel to find trends?

Do you know how to use excel? Do you know how to define a trend? If the odds never change, then what keeps it from the same ball just hitting over and over for forever? Surely that would be keeping with the odds, but it doesn't happen. The probability permutations are way too dynamic, so all of your probability claims are nonsense. There is only one mathematical school of thought that can even come close to predicting the lottery, and thats Chaos theory.

So boney go to school, there is still time for you to learn.

New Jersey United States Member #99032 October 18, 2010 1439 Posts Offline

Posted: December 18, 2012, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBoner on December 18, 2012

The only possible long test is the history of the game and that's 781 drawings. You're mileage might vary, but to me 0.02% is considered a very short test.

Boney still hasn't passed his third grade math class.

A coin flipping three heads then seven tails is important if you want to utilize the Law of Large Numbers.

But talking math to boney is like trying to teach a monkey to divide fractions.

(which I am sure some of them can do)

The flag formation is a heavily repeating pattern, so boney you need to go do your homework before you open your big mouth.You shouldn't talk about things you know nothing about as if you were some sort of authority.

I could prove you wrong easily with one graphical picture. But you probably failed art class too. Have you ever used excel to find trends?

Do you know how to use excel? Do you know how to define a trend? If the odds never change, then what keeps it from the same ball just hitting over and over for forever? Surely that would be keeping with the odds, but it doesn't happen. The probability permutations are way too dynamic, so all of your probability claims are nonsense. There is only one mathematical school of thought that can even come close to predicting the lottery, and thats Chaos theory.

So boney go to school, there is still time for you to learn.

First of all you are quoting somebody else, not me.

Second of all, you obviously don't understand what the "Law of Large Numbers" even is. It's not even a "real thing" it's just a term some people have used to attempt to explain a concept that many people misinterpret.

If you flip a fair coin 100 times, the results are likely to vary away from exactly 50/50 heads/tails. The more times you flip, the more likely you are to get close to 50%/50%, but the larger the actual variance is likely to be. So with the variance in this scenario being valued at 1, the STD DEV. per trial is also one. So after 100 trials, the STD DEV is 10, after 10000, the STD DEV is 100, after 1,000,000 the STD DEV is 1000.... etc.

Honestly I'm done arguing with you, specifically, because you define trends in random events as mathmetics. Which they aren't. And because you insist that probability isn't consistent because the same balls don't hit every draw. Which literally doesn't make sense.

At least Ronnie doesn't sit there and honestly tell me that I don't understand probability, math, etc. while claiming random things that are literally nonsense. All he says is that he believes that he can uses intuition to win. I tried to argue that he can't, but he didn't come back with a bunch of non sense about choas theory and trends in excel.

You have no idea what you are talking about. So keep on rambling about about how random events have trends in them.... you can believe whatever nonsense you wish.