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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: January 8, 2013, 11:33 pm - IP Logged

Its hard to stay positive and pick winning numbers with all this dissension and negativity flying around. 

Yes Nod

I Agree!DrumSad CheersHippy

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: January 9, 2013, 12:08 am - IP Logged

    Stack never proved that you can change the odds.

     

    He just consistently uses logic to explain you can win more than once if you pick lots of numbers.  That's not relevant.

     

    You say you only have to hit once to be ahead, but that's not necessarily true.  Especially in response to my statement about the odds balancing out.  First of all, they aren't relevant, second of all you never answered my question which was "how does believing that make me a hyprocrit?"  You can't answer that because the truth is it doesn't, and you're just a hate spewing man who will say whatever random thought comes to his head about me with no basis behind any of it.

     

    But I guess my posts are getting old to me, too.  What's the point in showing somebody the basics of a mathemetical concept when they'll twist reality around until they feel secure that they're better at a game of luck than other people?  There is no point, so I'm done here.

    The odds are a simple comparison of the number of ways to lose to the number of ways to win and in pick-5 games there is only one way to have a five number match whether it's out of 575,757 combos or 3,819,816. A group of 28 numbers has 98,280 combos but only one of those combos can have a five number match when five of the 28 numbers are drawn. The odds against is the number of ways to lose (3,819,815) minus the number of combos played (98,280) or a possible 3,721,535 losing combos to 1 combo with a five number match.

    "Stack never proved that you can change the odds."

    So by playing two combos I won't reduce the ways I can lose by one or not reduce the number of losing combos by 98,280 by wheeling 28 numbers?

    In roulette if I bet on one number there are 37 ways to lose and one way to win or odds of 37 to 1. If I bet on 5 different numbers there are 33 ways to lose but still only one way to win so the odds are 33 to 1. You said I can't change the odds against winning, but I just did.

    "He just consistently uses logic to explain you can win more than once if you pick lots of numbers."

    I've never said there was more than one way to have a five number match, but I did say the probability of any group of 28 numbers having a five number match was 2.57% and the reciprocal is 1 out of 39. Probabiliy is the percentage chance, but that still doesn't change the statistical fact at least 741,000 groups of 28 numbers will have at least 5 five number matches in the next 39 drawings and five times higher than 2.57% probability and a reciprocal of 1 out of 7.8. 

    The lotteries use reciprocals to state the odds because odds of 1 in 39.9 make the 2.5% chance of winning something look much better or the 1 in 306 with a 0.3% chance of matching three numbers and winning 6 bucks.

      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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      Posted: January 9, 2013, 9:45 am - IP Logged

       First of all, I shouldn't address the math errors (5 numbers on a 38 number wheel isn't 33 to 1..... not even close but w.e.) but you're right.

       

      I should have clarified that you never proved that you can change your odds PER TICKET.  Obviously buying 1 ticket gives you half the odds of buying two, but that should go without saying.  I really didn't think I needed to clarify that.

       

      I could do a bucha work to show how this is irrelevant, the stuff you are doing, but I know it'd be ignored, so I won't.


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        Posted: January 9, 2013, 11:23 am - IP Logged

         First of all, I shouldn't address the math errors (5 numbers on a 38 number wheel isn't 33 to 1..... not even close but w.e.) but you're right.

         

        I should have clarified that you never proved that you can change your odds PER TICKET.  Obviously buying 1 ticket gives you half the odds of buying two, but that should go without saying.  I really didn't think I needed to clarify that.

         

        I could do a bucha work to show how this is irrelevant, the stuff you are doing, but I know it'd be ignored, so I won't.

        Once again boney, your the one who is ignoring. I hit 5+1 in 18 draws using 98.820 lines and Stack showed how a wheel reduced the lines to 5000 and still captured the winning line.......

        Why are you so focused on losing??????????


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          Posted: January 9, 2013, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

           First of all, I shouldn't address the math errors (5 numbers on a 38 number wheel isn't 33 to 1..... not even close but w.e.) but you're right.

           

          I should have clarified that you never proved that you can change your odds PER TICKET.  Obviously buying 1 ticket gives you half the odds of buying two, but that should go without saying.  I really didn't think I needed to clarify that.

           

          I could do a bucha work to show how this is irrelevant, the stuff you are doing, but I know it'd be ignored, so I won't.

          Puke


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            Posted: January 9, 2013, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

            Idea

            Every combination has exactly the same chance as any other combination, even if it did appaer 10 weeks in a row, in the following draw the stats are reset.

            Each combination does have a different chance of appearing in different positions on a ticket but the overall odds always remain unchanged,

            In a 6/49 lotto there are 13,983,816 different 6 ball combinations, you pick one line per bet you have one in 13,983,816 of winning the jackpot.

            Distributions come in to play when talking less than 6 hits in a 6/49 but the overall odds can never change no matter which combination you select

            I will now demonstrate

            -----------------------------------------------------

            In a 6/49 draw

            1,712,304 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 1 as the lowest ball

            178,365 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 2 as the 2nd ball

            15,180 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 3 as the 3rd ball

            990 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 4 as the 4th ball

            44 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 5 as the 5th ball

            1 combination of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 6 as the 6th ball (01 02 03 04 05 06)

            1,712,304 + 178,365 + 15,180 + 990 + 44 +1 = 1,906,884

            So 1,906,884 possible combinations in the 6/49 have at least one number that intersects one of the combination 01,02,03,04,05,06

            -----------------------------------------------------------

            Now to prove that there is a difference for whatever line chosen I will pick last week's lotto draw results which were 07 09 20 21 30 37 and repeat the above

            -----------------------------------------------------

            In a 6/49 draw

            850,668 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 7 as the lowest ball

            731,120 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 9 as the 2nd ball

            624,834 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 20 as the 3rd ball

            430,920 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 21 as the 4th ball

            451,269 combinations of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 30 as the 5th ball

            376,992 combination of the possible 13,983,816 combinations have ball 37 as the 6th ball

            850,668 + 731,120 + 624,834 + 430,920 + 451,269 + 376,992 = 3,465,803

            So 3,465,803 possible combinations in the 6/49 have at least one number that intersects one of the combination 07,09,20,21,30,37Thud

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              Kentucky
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              Posted: January 9, 2013, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

               First of all, I shouldn't address the math errors (5 numbers on a 38 number wheel isn't 33 to 1..... not even close but w.e.) but you're right.

               

              I should have clarified that you never proved that you can change your odds PER TICKET.  Obviously buying 1 ticket gives you half the odds of buying two, but that should go without saying.  I really didn't think I needed to clarify that.

               

              I could do a bucha work to show how this is irrelevant, the stuff you are doing, but I know it'd be ignored, so I won't.

              Odds against are calculated by a ratio of losing chances to winning chances. Roulette has 38 numbers so by betting on five numbers, you reduce the losing changes by 5; 38 - 5 = 33. Since there is only one winning number, the odds  against are 33 to 1.

              "I should have clarified that you never proved that you can change your odds PER TICKET."

              The conversation has always been about combinations of numbers and specifically 28 numbers. If someone even thought one ticket has better odds than another ticket, it takes a minimum six lines to use 28 numbers.

              "I really didn't think I needed to clarify that."

              If someone is unsure of which ticket out of two has a better chance, buy both tickets. If they can't afford to spend the extra dollar, they shouldn't be playing lottery games.

                riscknight's avatar - riscknight
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                Posted: January 9, 2013, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

                Avoid selecting to play a line of *6 consecutive numbers* like 01,02,03,04,05,06 or 12,13,14,15,16,17; unless you would like to wait 317.814 drawings for your 6 consecutive numbers to come up.

                6/49 dis(assembly)

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: January 9, 2013, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

                  Avoid selecting to play a line of *6 consecutive numbers* like 01,02,03,04,05,06 or 12,13,14,15,16,17; unless you would like to wait 317.814 drawings for your 6 consecutive numbers to come up.

                  Are you saying the odds of hitting a combination of six consecutive numbers in a 6/49 game are 1:317,814 as opposed to 1:13,983,816?  If so prove it.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    riscknight's avatar - riscknight
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                    Posted: January 9, 2013, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

                    Are you saying the odds of hitting a combination of six consecutive numbers in a 6/49 game are 1:317,814 as opposed to 1:13,983,816?  If so prove it.

                    Let's start with the following for now.

                     

                    LOTTO 6/49 has 13.983.816 combinations, or "lines" of 6 numbers.

                    "01,02,03,04,05,06" is one of them.

                     

                    Combinations with 6 consecutive numbers, like "35,36,37,38,39,40"

                    or, "23,24,25,26,27,28" are only 44.

                     

                    Divide the 13.983.816 combinations by the combinations or lines which only have 6 consecutive numbers and that are 44 and, you'll get the "expectancy" - or how often should I expect this particular line for example of 6 consecutive numbers to appear - which is every 317.814 drawings.

                    6/49 dis(assembly)


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                      Posted: January 9, 2013, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                      Nice work.

                        riscknight's avatar - riscknight
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                        Posted: January 9, 2013, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

                        Nice work.

                        Anytime...

                        Best Of Luck with your favorite 28 numbers.

                        Hope you hit BIG pretty soon.

                        Take Care.

                        6/49 dis(assembly)


                          United States
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                          Posted: January 9, 2013, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                          "Better odds" do not exist because you say so.  And really, that's been the crux of your argument:  "I get better odds because I say so."

                          Positive results do not equate to "better odds".  Odds are the probability that something WILL happen, results are what you get AFTER something already happened.  The only way you can alter the odds of winning is by altering the actual game matrix, and since you are not on the board of MUSL, you cannot do that.  The only way you can alter your own personal odds is by buying more lines, and that's not what you're doing here.  Offering a set of 15, 18, 20, or 25 numbers that might contain the winning numbers does not alter the odds.  You have not changed the game matrix, you have merely chosen a wheel.

                          A massive ego does not equate to "better odds".  The ONLY thing you've been able to hold over Boney so far is that you've been better than he at guessing numbers.  If Boney ever gets on the same lucky streak you had, all of a sudden he's got "better odds" than you, at least by your rules.  You'll have been beaten at your own game.  My, what a shot to your ego that will be.

                          As I said before, if you truly have developed a knack for guessing numbers, congratulations.  But it doesn't mean you have "better odds", no matter how badly you wish it does or how often you tell yourself it does.

                          But, quite frankly, I don't know why any of us are wasting our time on you.  If you truly believe that good guesses and better odds are the same thing, you're delusional.  And it's painful watching someone like Stack, who I thought was an intelligent guy, weave together these tortured attempts at translating your hubris into actual mathematical principles.  You're not doing something to benefit all lottery players, you're running a modified version of Maddog's challenge and then gloating when you do better than people you don't like.  You should be ashamed of yourself, but your 15-post-a-day ego trip makes it clear that you have no shame.

                          Insult me all you want.  (I know you will, you can't resist it.  That's just who you are.)  I'm done with this clusterf*** of a thread.

                          Too bad your such a sore loser, and just as focused on losing as boney is..........


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                            Posted: January 9, 2013, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

                            Ive done something that has never been done before and your just jealous.....


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                              Posted: January 9, 2013, 4:46 pm - IP Logged

                              People who focus on new and creative ways of winning have BETTER ODDS of winning......

                                 
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