Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 2, 2016, 7:21 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

Page 44 of 353
4.820
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
11974 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 8, 2012, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

If someone does come up with 28 numbers that have matched five 10% of the time it will be interesting to know what is unique about the group and if their uniqueness can be applied to other lotteries.

It has never happened because the lottery knows the winning combination before it is drawn.

US Flag

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!


    United States
    Member #116268
    September 7, 2011
    20244 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 8, 2012, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

    I need to post the correct winners for Aug. 7, 2012. I was looking at the wrong results.

     mcginnin56        5+0

     Dead_Aim          5+0

    lottoarchitect     4+0

    Sorry for the posting error. 


      United States
      Member #116268
      September 7, 2011
      20244 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 9, 2012, 10:59 am - IP Logged

      I need to post the correct winners for Aug. 7, 2012. I was looking at the wrong results.

       mcginnin56        5+0

       Dead_Aim          5+0

      lottoarchitect     4+0

      Sorry for the posting error. 

      Congratulations winners. With 8 people playing 5+0 has been hit 7 times in 15 draws.

               

        lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

        Greece
        Member #2815
        November 18, 2003
        502 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 9, 2012, 11:27 am - IP Logged

        Close to be a 5+0 match for my pick, 4+0 twice in 3 attempts in good anyway, still waiting for the 5+0 hit Smile.

        Actually I see little point in picking 28 numbers given the symmetry in wins probability, 0+0 has the same chance as 5+0, 1+0 is the same as 4+0,  2+0 is the same as 3+0. A more representative example would be to attempt and predict 14-18 numbers where any 3+ match would be considered a good pick and compete against the odds to prove that prediction can be done above odds. A 3+0 win would mean something in that case whilst in 28 picked means nothing.

        For 14 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.44, 2 matches=1 in 3.66, 3 matches=1 in 12.19, 4 matches=1 in 90.86, 5 matches=1 in 1908.00

        For 18 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.87, 2 matches=1 in 2.96, 3 matches=1 in 6.66, 4 matches=1 in 32.85, 5 matches=1 in 445.82

        Here we don't have any sort of wins symmetry therefore the most successful predictions will come out of the rest easily. Just an idea anyway. I'll post later my submission for the next draw.


          United States
          Member #111442
          May 25, 2011
          6323 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 9, 2012, 11:31 am - IP Logged

          Congratulations winners. With 8 people playing 5+0 has been hit 7 times in 15 draws.

                   

          PartyBanana  Lep  Dance  Hyper     Cheers


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 9, 2012, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

            Close to be a 5+0 match for my pick, 4+0 twice in 3 attempts in good anyway, still waiting for the 5+0 hit Smile.

            Actually I see little point in picking 28 numbers given the symmetry in wins probability, 0+0 has the same chance as 5+0, 1+0 is the same as 4+0,  2+0 is the same as 3+0. A more representative example would be to attempt and predict 14-18 numbers where any 3+ match would be considered a good pick and compete against the odds to prove that prediction can be done above odds. A 3+0 win would mean something in that case whilst in 28 picked means nothing.

            For 14 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.44, 2 matches=1 in 3.66, 3 matches=1 in 12.19, 4 matches=1 in 90.86, 5 matches=1 in 1908.00

            For 18 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.87, 2 matches=1 in 2.96, 3 matches=1 in 6.66, 4 matches=1 in 32.85, 5 matches=1 in 445.82

            Here we don't have any sort of wins symmetry therefore the most successful predictions will come out of the rest easily. Just an idea anyway. I'll post later my submission for the next draw.

            You make an excellent point lottoarchitect, and you are welcome to try whatever variations you like. For me the challenge has become 5+1. Its kinda like the lottery (and the unbelievers)  telling me "you cant do it" and me saying "watch and see, Chump"

            Consider someone who has billions of dollars and wants to play for entertainment purposes with an objective of hitting 5+1 without ever spending over $100k per drawing. 

            With this scenario in mind, I have played 17 draws @ $98,820. for a cost of $1,679,940.

            For simplicity I count a 10% pay out on the overall money spent plus 5+0 wins.

            Total return on money spent is $500k (two 5+0 wins) plus $167,994 = $667,994. 

            How long til I hit 5+1? We don't know because its never been done by intelligent design.

              x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

              United States
              Member #48046
              December 7, 2006
              1699 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 9, 2012, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

              Close to be a 5+0 match for my pick, 4+0 twice in 3 attempts in good anyway, still waiting for the 5+0 hit Smile.

              Actually I see little point in picking 28 numbers given the symmetry in wins probability, 0+0 has the same chance as 5+0, 1+0 is the same as 4+0,  2+0 is the same as 3+0. A more representative example would be to attempt and predict 14-18 numbers where any 3+ match would be considered a good pick and compete against the odds to prove that prediction can be done above odds. A 3+0 win would mean something in that case whilst in 28 picked means nothing.

              For 14 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.44, 2 matches=1 in 3.66, 3 matches=1 in 12.19, 4 matches=1 in 90.86, 5 matches=1 in 1908.00

              For 18 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.87, 2 matches=1 in 2.96, 3 matches=1 in 6.66, 4 matches=1 in 32.85, 5 matches=1 in 445.82

              Here we don't have any sort of wins symmetry therefore the most successful predictions will come out of the rest easily. Just an idea anyway. I'll post later my submission for the next draw.

              I  was  thinkink  18  or 19  numbers too

                lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                Greece
                Member #2815
                November 18, 2003
                502 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 9, 2012, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

                I  was  thinkink  18  or 19  numbers too

                Better to opt for 18 numbers, with 19 numbers the odds are 2 matches come more often than 1 match. Going below 18 numbers will probably make even hitting 3 correct rather difficult.

                  lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                  Greece
                  Member #2815
                  November 18, 2003
                  502 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

                  My submission for draw 12 August 2012:

                  GAT 25526          : 04 05 10 11 12 13 18 20 21 24 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 36 37 41 43 44 48 49 50 51 53 56
                  GAT 881787 (MB): 46 (05 18)

                  My submission is GAT 25526 + GAT 881787

                  and those I monitor their progress

                  GAT 175793 : 01 03 05 08 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 23 25 26 27 30 32 34 36 38 39 41 42 48 49 51 53 54
                  GAT 2488985 (MB) : 32 (17 12)
                  GAT 3584375 (MB) : 12 (32 17)

                  [reference data D=50 SD=20 RF=3]

                    Avatar
                    NEW YORK
                    United States
                    Member #90535
                    April 29, 2010
                    11974 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 9, 2012, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

                    Close to be a 5+0 match for my pick, 4+0 twice in 3 attempts in good anyway, still waiting for the 5+0 hit Smile.

                    Actually I see little point in picking 28 numbers given the symmetry in wins probability, 0+0 has the same chance as 5+0, 1+0 is the same as 4+0,  2+0 is the same as 3+0. A more representative example would be to attempt and predict 14-18 numbers where any 3+ match would be considered a good pick and compete against the odds to prove that prediction can be done above odds. A 3+0 win would mean something in that case whilst in 28 picked means nothing.

                    For 14 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.44, 2 matches=1 in 3.66, 3 matches=1 in 12.19, 4 matches=1 in 90.86, 5 matches=1 in 1908.00

                    For 18 numbers: 1 match=1 in 2.87, 2 matches=1 in 2.96, 3 matches=1 in 6.66, 4 matches=1 in 32.85, 5 matches=1 in 445.82

                    Here we don't have any sort of wins symmetry therefore the most successful predictions will come out of the rest easily. Just an idea anyway. I'll post later my submission for the next draw.

                    Your playing methods are not working. It is time to quit.

                    US Flag

                    PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                      Avatar
                      NEW YORK
                      United States
                      Member #90535
                      April 29, 2010
                      11974 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 9, 2012, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

                      You make an excellent point lottoarchitect, and you are welcome to try whatever variations you like. For me the challenge has become 5+1. Its kinda like the lottery (and the unbelievers)  telling me "you cant do it" and me saying "watch and see, Chump"

                      Consider someone who has billions of dollars and wants to play for entertainment purposes with an objective of hitting 5+1 without ever spending over $100k per drawing. 

                      With this scenario in mind, I have played 17 draws @ $98,820. for a cost of $1,679,940.

                      For simplicity I count a 10% pay out on the overall money spent plus 5+0 wins.

                      Total return on money spent is $500k (two 5+0 wins) plus $167,994 = $667,994. 

                      How long til I hit 5+1? We don't know because its never been done by intelligent design.

                      5+1? What are you complaining about? You are not the only one trying.

                      US Flag

                      PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                        Avatar
                        Kentucky
                        United States
                        Member #32652
                        February 14, 2006
                        7295 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 9, 2012, 5:18 pm - IP Logged

                        The $640M Mega Millions Jackpot was won with Quick Pick Tickets. Type the names of the 3 winners and you will see that the winning tickets were all quick picks. I posted one of the winning tickets in one of my threads.

                        The "70% to 80%" figures are just overall averages and don't apply when over 630 million more tickets than the average were bought for just one drawing. If just 20% of all the tickets were self picks, a minimum 26 million playslips were filled out. The average MM ticket sales for the last 26 drawings is around 20 million and because there was no significant size jackpot, it's possible 50% of those tickets were self picks. The players picking their numbers contributed to the total buying more tickets and those extra tickets were probably QPs. If the self picks average 10 million tickets a drawing, they would need another 120 million self picks to get 20% of the 652 million tickets sold.

                        I doubt I'd be very far off saying 97% of those tickets were QPs: there is nothing special because the three winning tickets were QPs.

                          Avatar
                          NEW YORK
                          United States
                          Member #90535
                          April 29, 2010
                          11974 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 9, 2012, 5:30 pm - IP Logged

                          The "70% to 80%" figures are just overall averages and don't apply when over 630 million more tickets than the average were bought for just one drawing. If just 20% of all the tickets were self picks, a minimum 26 million playslips were filled out. The average MM ticket sales for the last 26 drawings is around 20 million and because there was no significant size jackpot, it's possible 50% of those tickets were self picks. The players picking their numbers contributed to the total buying more tickets and those extra tickets were probably QPs. If the self picks average 10 million tickets a drawing, they would need another 120 million self picks to get 20% of the 652 million tickets sold.

                          I doubt I'd be very far off saying 97% of those tickets were QPs: there is nothing special because the three winning tickets were QPs.

                          They were not self pick winners which proved my point.

                          US Flag

                          PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!


                            United States
                            Member #116268
                            September 7, 2011
                            20244 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 9, 2012, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

                            The "70% to 80%" figures are just overall averages and don't apply when over 630 million more tickets than the average were bought for just one drawing. If just 20% of all the tickets were self picks, a minimum 26 million playslips were filled out. The average MM ticket sales for the last 26 drawings is around 20 million and because there was no significant size jackpot, it's possible 50% of those tickets were self picks. The players picking their numbers contributed to the total buying more tickets and those extra tickets were probably QPs. If the self picks average 10 million tickets a drawing, they would need another 120 million self picks to get 20% of the 652 million tickets sold.

                            I doubt I'd be very far off saying 97% of those tickets were QPs: there is nothing special because the three winning tickets were QPs.

                            Excellent point Stack47, don't let Thriftys child like demeanor bother you. The reason they sell so many QPs is because that's what they advertise that people should buy. If you go to any of there sites for info on how to play the FIRST thing they say is "buy some QPs" and that's one very big reason to believe that THATS HOW THEY MAKE THE MOST MONEY.

                            LottoBoner talks about this all the time and he is correctamundo........

                              Avatar
                              Kentucky
                              United States
                              Member #32652
                              February 14, 2006
                              7295 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 9, 2012, 9:41 pm - IP Logged

                              Increasing your chances of winning the Mega millions or Powerball by buying more tickets will never change the fact that each Mega millions combination cost $1 to play and $2 for Powerball. I do not have to be a math genius to see it.

                              Spending more than $1 or $2 on MM and PB does not make any economic sense. You could have bought any of the past MM or PB winning combinations for the basic ticket cost.

                              Your get more value by winning the mega millions or powerball by spending no more than $1 and $2 for the winning combination. Economic 101 my friend.

                              "Spending more than $1 or $2 on MM and PB does not make any economic sense."

                              What doesn't make any sense is saying 34,450,517 different people all bought one PB ticket for last nights drawing. And some of those players spent an extra $4,679,168 was spent on Powerplay. Do you really believe there 4.68 million Powerplay bettors?

                              "Your get more value by winning the mega millions or powerball by spending no more than $1 and $2 for the winning combination."

                              What exactly do you expect to win by only playing one MM ticket?

                              You're only getting a 1 in 75 chance of winning $1 and a 1 in 844 chance of winning 9 bucks. Nothing wrong with buying a dream but that's about all you can expect to get only buying one ticket. Nothing wrong with buying a dream, but don't try to taut your logic as a sound playing strategy for anyone but yourself.

                              BTW, you have no proof the majority of winners only bought one ticket. 

                                 
                                Page 44 of 353