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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: August 15, 2012, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

For $100, I'd play a 3 if 5 abbreviated wheel and there is an around 200 combos 3 if 4 wheel. Another option for $200 is playing five 2 if 2 wheels.

Many have questioned the value of playing 28 numbers because a full wheel has 98,280 combos, but they fail to understand that playing even a small portion of those combos give them a better chance of matching all five numbers or the jackpot when the five of the 28 numbers are drawn. Just using 20 of the combos gets a one in 4914 chance (when matching all five numbers) compared to the one in 195,235 chance 20 QPs gets.

The reason for buying QPs is we don't which numbers will be drawn and even if we're guessing at the 28 numbers and play 20 of those combos, the odds against us matching all five numbers are no worse than getting 20 QPs. By matching 3 or 4 numbers, are chances of getting a three or four number match are better than the same number of QPs.

To me a true "shotgun" approach is using all 56 numbers on 12 lines where the only thing preventing Thrifty from matching five numbers on one line is the order in which they enter the numbers into the wheel. I'm not sure how to calculate the odds against 12 QPs having all 56 numbers, but it's nothing even close to the hundred percent guarantee a self pick player gets by distributing all 56 numbers on 12 lines.

To Thrifty:

Does it make more sense when you buy QPs because you don't know which 5 of the 56 numbers will be drawn KNOWING you'll probably never get all 56 numbers with 12 QPs or play all 56 numbers on 12 lines KNOWING you'll have all five of the numbers?

Playing 56 numbers on 12 lines reduces the odds a great deal. I have tried it with take 5, lotto, powerball and mega millions. I did not have any luck with it though.

I like the shotgun approach because you increase your chances of winning without spending extra money. Saving $5 for 4 weeks allows you to play 20 lines in one shot without spending extra money. It takes discipline to seat out 4 drawings without playing, but I buy quick picks, so it does not matter if I seat out for 4 drawings to increase my chances. Buying multiple tickets does not guarantee that I will win a jackpot.

I think that Ronnie is using the shotgun method the wrong way. You can buy many lines, but you have to play those lines within your budget to avoid spending extra money.

Buying multiple lines in a single drawing offers the same chances of winning relative to spreading them over several drawings. 10 lines in one drawing offers the same chances of winning as 10 lines spread out over 10 drawings. I did not believe it before, but now I do.

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    Posted: August 15, 2012, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

    Good Luck to ya Ronnie

    Sounds like a 12 Gage to me           .....with double -ought  shells at that.

          I haven't saved very much Money lately  but the  Vac. club money is slowly growing  ($30)

    So..........For Powerball tonight    I'm going with the    BB-Gun approach   

    I  think I'll pick  seven or eight numbers and  wheel on Lottery Post  abbreviated wheel  for   $3  to $6  dollars

                 Not exactly a   BANG          Just a little  bing

    BTW:   I bought a  Daisy  880 Powerline  at Christmas last year    .....and just got it out of the package the other day 


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      Posted: August 15, 2012, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

      For $100, I'd play a 3 if 5 abbreviated wheel and there is an around 200 combos 3 if 4 wheel. Another option for $200 is playing five 2 if 2 wheels.

      Many have questioned the value of playing 28 numbers because a full wheel has 98,280 combos, but they fail to understand that playing even a small portion of those combos give them a better chance of matching all five numbers or the jackpot when the five of the 28 numbers are drawn. Just using 20 of the combos gets a one in 4914 chance (when matching all five numbers) compared to the one in 195,235 chance 20 QPs gets.

      The reason for buying QPs is we don't which numbers will be drawn and even if we're guessing at the 28 numbers and play 20 of those combos, the odds against us matching all five numbers are no worse than getting 20 QPs. By matching 3 or 4 numbers, are chances of getting a three or four number match are better than the same number of QPs.

      To me a true "shotgun" approach is using all 56 numbers on 12 lines where the only thing preventing Thrifty from matching five numbers on one line is the order in which they enter the numbers into the wheel. I'm not sure how to calculate the odds against 12 QPs having all 56 numbers, but it's nothing even close to the hundred percent guarantee a self pick player gets by distributing all 56 numbers on 12 lines.

      To Thrifty:

      Does it make more sense when you buy QPs because you don't know which 5 of the 56 numbers will be drawn KNOWING you'll probably never get all 56 numbers with 12 QPs or play all 56 numbers on 12 lines KNOWING you'll have all five of the numbers?

      Cool, I will post the 28 later today and Im hoping you can give me the 3 if 4 list so I can start filling out the play slips. This is a little like work but if I win the $45 mil it will help.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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        Posted: August 15, 2012, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

        For $100, I'd play a 3 if 5 abbreviated wheel and there is an around 200 combos 3 if 4 wheel. Another option for $200 is playing five 2 if 2 wheels.

        Many have questioned the value of playing 28 numbers because a full wheel has 98,280 combos, but they fail to understand that playing even a small portion of those combos give them a better chance of matching all five numbers or the jackpot when the five of the 28 numbers are drawn. Just using 20 of the combos gets a one in 4914 chance (when matching all five numbers) compared to the one in 195,235 chance 20 QPs gets.

        The reason for buying QPs is we don't which numbers will be drawn and even if we're guessing at the 28 numbers and play 20 of those combos, the odds against us matching all five numbers are no worse than getting 20 QPs. By matching 3 or 4 numbers, are chances of getting a three or four number match are better than the same number of QPs.

        To me a true "shotgun" approach is using all 56 numbers on 12 lines where the only thing preventing Thrifty from matching five numbers on one line is the order in which they enter the numbers into the wheel. I'm not sure how to calculate the odds against 12 QPs having all 56 numbers, but it's nothing even close to the hundred percent guarantee a self pick player gets by distributing all 56 numbers on 12 lines.

        To Thrifty:

        Does it make more sense when you buy QPs because you don't know which 5 of the 56 numbers will be drawn KNOWING you'll probably never get all 56 numbers with 12 QPs or play all 56 numbers on 12 lines KNOWING you'll have all five of the numbers?

        To test how well one might expect to do with 100 QP, I took the first 100 MM combinations drawn (07/22/08 to 07/03/09) after the last MM matrix change and used them like QP's.

        These combinations had all 56 numbers four times and 41 of the 46 megaballs.

        When compared with the last 20 MM drawings the best they did was match 3+0 a couple of times with a 0+1 once or twice wining $0 to $12 each drawing.

        Ronnie did as well as could normally expected with 100 QP's with the same mega ball.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       


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          Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

          To test how well one might expect to do with 100 QP, I took the first 100 MM combinations drawn (07/22/08 to 07/03/09) after the last MM matrix change and used them like QP's.

          These combinations had all 56 numbers four times and 41 of the 46 megaballs.

          When compared with the last 20 MM drawings the best they did was match 3+0 a couple of times with a 0+1 once or twice wining $0 to $12 each drawing.

          Ronnie did as well as could normally expected with 100 QP's with the same mega ball.

          Exactly our point,,,,,,, We want to do BETTER than what can normally be expected,,,,,,,


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            Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

            Eliminations for Fri. Aug. 17, 2012

            Tuesday, August 14, 201215 · 23 · 34 · 39 · 55    + 32

             38 13 16 26 21

            Numbers in play:

            10 18 36 44 30 32 33 42 48 02 46 05 18 29 41 03 04 08 43 09 51 50 52 01 49 06 07 24

            bonus ball 25


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              Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

              To test how well one might expect to do with 100 QP, I took the first 100 MM combinations drawn (07/22/08 to 07/03/09) after the last MM matrix change and used them like QP's.

              These combinations had all 56 numbers four times and 41 of the 46 megaballs.

              When compared with the last 20 MM drawings the best they did was match 3+0 a couple of times with a 0+1 once or twice wining $0 to $12 each drawing.

              Ronnie did as well as could normally expected with 100 QP's with the same mega ball.

              Awesome information though RJOh,

              I think it is extremely interesting that 5 of the mega balls never showed in 100 draws proving that some numbers can be just flat out cold. Like frigid cold. Like THIS cold......


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                Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:43 pm - IP Logged

                Good Luck to ya Ronnie

                Sounds like a 12 Gage to me           .....with double -ought  shells at that.

                      I haven't saved very much Money lately  but the  Vac. club money is slowly growing  ($30)

                So..........For Powerball tonight    I'm going with the    BB-Gun approach   

                I  think I'll pick  seven or eight numbers and  wheel on Lottery Post  abbreviated wheel  for   $3  to $6  dollars

                             Not exactly a   BANG          Just a little  bing

                BTW:   I bought a  Daisy  880 Powerline  at Christmas last year    .....and just got it out of the package the other day 

                Thanks x,  Daisy  880 Powerline sounds fun. Is that a pump?? because I could never get enough power to kill a pigeon with one of those...... the bb would just bounce right off of them. Still have a hankerin to kill me some pigeons too..... Any suggestions for a strong pellet gun??


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                  Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

                  Playing 56 numbers on 12 lines reduces the odds a great deal. I have tried it with take 5, lotto, powerball and mega millions. I did not have any luck with it though.

                  I like the shotgun approach because you increase your chances of winning without spending extra money. Saving $5 for 4 weeks allows you to play 20 lines in one shot without spending extra money. It takes discipline to seat out 4 drawings without playing, but I buy quick picks, so it does not matter if I seat out for 4 drawings to increase my chances. Buying multiple tickets does not guarantee that I will win a jackpot.

                  I think that Ronnie is using the shotgun method the wrong way. You can buy many lines, but you have to play those lines within your budget to avoid spending extra money.

                  Buying multiple lines in a single drawing offers the same chances of winning relative to spreading them over several drawings. 10 lines in one drawing offers the same chances of winning as 10 lines spread out over 10 drawings. I did not believe it before, but now I do.

                  Thanks THRIFTY, IM making it a point NOT to spend any extra money.


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                    Posted: August 15, 2012, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

                    Awesome information though RJOh,

                    I think it is extremely interesting that 5 of the mega balls never showed in 100 draws proving that some numbers can be just flat out cold. Like frigid cold. Like THIS cold......

                    Which brings up conflicting strategies for me......... One strategy is to play a bonus number till it hits, no matter what.

                    The second stratagy is to NOT play a number after just a few draws.

                    The reasoning here is that a number that is truly "due" will hit and hit quickly.


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                      Posted: August 15, 2012, 7:14 pm - IP Logged

                      So to answer an earlier question RJOh, it is possible to just "know" that a certain number or set of numbers are likely to hit soon and very soon.

                      That's how another Phoenix man just a few months ago hit 5 of 5 on PB 6 times.

                      He went into the store over and over buying different bonus numbers to go with his set. He didn't get the bonus, but got 1 million on 6 seperate tickets. $6 million total.

                      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/phoenix-area-man-hits-1-m_n_1508099.html


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                        Posted: August 15, 2012, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                        And I have been in the QT station where it happened. Its just a few miles from my house.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: August 15, 2012, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

                          So to answer an earlier question RJOh, it is possible to just "know" that a certain number or set of numbers are likely to hit soon and very soon.

                          That's how another Phoenix man just a few months ago hit 5 of 5 on PB 6 times.

                          He went into the store over and over buying different bonus numbers to go with his set. He didn't get the bonus, but got 1 million on 6 seperate tickets. $6 million total.

                          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/phoenix-area-man-hits-1-m_n_1508099.html

                          It's impossible to "know" anything for sure about a random event before it happens but if you believe what happens most is most likely to happen again then you play in a way to take advantage of that.

                          I once used repeat frequencies and had some luck but it involves a lot of recalculations after each drawing. I still use it to pick my bonus numbers. It's part of my working strategy when I play PB since I only play ten lines. It worked well last Saturday and even though there was no way I would have ever matched 5+1, 4+1 was a possibility and I matched 3+0 and a 1+1 for $11. I'm trying the same thing tonight with PB, we'll see after the drawing if it worked again.

                          We all are looking for a strategy that works better than normal and the only way to know if we have one is by winning.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: August 15, 2012, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

                            To test how well one might expect to do with 100 QP, I took the first 100 MM combinations drawn (07/22/08 to 07/03/09) after the last MM matrix change and used them like QP's.

                            These combinations had all 56 numbers four times and 41 of the 46 megaballs.

                            When compared with the last 20 MM drawings the best they did was match 3+0 a couple of times with a 0+1 once or twice wining $0 to $12 each drawing.

                            Ronnie did as well as could normally expected with 100 QP's with the same mega ball.

                            One should remember while these 100 combinations won almost nothing in the last two weeks, on the day they were drawn they could have won or did win a jackpot.  Every set of numbers has their day, you just has to play them when it's their day.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: August 15, 2012, 11:11 pm - IP Logged

                              When you have numbers that come up like

                              31 32 33 34 35 37 any thicket can be a winner.

                              If I had a ticket come up like that I would figure that it would be a loser.

                              But it wasn't.....

                                 
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