I'm on the Westside. As far as the Instant Liability Report, it is a report that shows the lottery the total number of prizes allocated for each prize level in a game and the total amount claimed. On the report, you'll see a specific prize level listed 4 or 5 times. For instance, you'll see the $100 prize listed multiple times because the lottery keeps track of each way you can win a specific prize. For a $100 prize, you can win $10 ten times, or you can win $25 four times or you can get a 10X symbol times $10. The usefulness of the report is that it shows you the number of prizes claimed and that is strongly correlated to total ticket sales. For top prizes, you can make a relatively decent projection as to whether a top prize is due.
The Florida lottery, like most lotteries, award all prizes (including top prizes) in a series of pools as tickets are sold. For example, lets look at the $200 Million Spectacular. It has 20 top prizes of $1M. Therefore, for every 5% of ticket sales, a top prize is released. All top prizes will be claimed when the ticket sales near 100% (20 prizes x 5% released). This avoids the possibility that all or most of the top prizes are claimed while there are a lot of tickets unsold. For the $200MS, I can see that 94% of total tickets have been sold and 94% of all prizes have been claimed. However, there are still 2 top prizes left. As a result, one of the top prizes are close to be released if its not already in the market. The opposite is true as well. If you have a game with 4 top prizes and 2 have been claimed, that means 2 are left. If you look at the report and see that only 66% of the tickets have been sold, you know that it is unlikely that one of the 2 remaining top prizes will be released until the ticket sales hit about 75%. The system is not perfect, but when I was tracking this for several games on a monthly basis I was able to predict when top prizes were going to be awarded within a week of the prize being awarded. So I was basically able to anticipate when a top prize would be in circulation. However, Florida is a large state and I could not predict the location (e.g., Pensacola vs Key West). Also, some games like the Florida Cash have so many prizes that it is very difficult to work the system because there are too many top prizes and ticket sales are still high which means data becomes obsolete quickly.
In any event, I know this is a long explanation but hopefully it makes sense. I am going to try to post the latest 100X instant liability report here. It is very difficult to get the formatting correct because the lottery emails me the report in a text document, not word or excel.
Column 1 is the prize amount and each way of winning that prize.
Column 2 is the total number of prizes awarded for that prize level.
Column 3 is the total dollar value of the prizes awarded at each prize level.
Column 4 is the total number of prizes claimed for that prize level.
Column 5 is the total value of the prizes claimed for that prize level.
Column 6 is the total number of prizes left for each prize level.
Column 7 is the total value of the remaining prizes.
Tier Tier Type Tier Value Prize Count Prize Amount ----------------------------------- -----------------------------
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (5) (6) (7)
1 Cash Prize $25.00 1835242 $45,881,050.00 1818216 $45,455,400.00 99.07% 17026 $425,650.00
2 Cash Prize $25.00 917621 $22,940,525.00 908394 $22,709,850.00 98.99% 9227 $230,675.00
3 Cash Prize $25.00 917660 $22,941,500.00 908116 $22,702,900.00 98.96% 9544 $238,600.00
4 Cash Prize $25.00 1835203 $45,880,075.00 1761482 $44,037,050.00 95.98% 73721 $1,843,025.00
5 Cash Prize $30.00 917621 $27,528,630.00 908840 $27,265,200.00 99.04% 8781 $263,430.00
6 Cash Prize $30.00 550512 $16,515,360.00 545541 $16,366,230.00 99.10% 4971 $149,130.00
7 Cash Prize $30.00 367109 $11,013,270.00 363803 $10,914,090.00 99.10% 3306 $99,180.00
8 Cash Prize $30.00 367148 $11,014,440.00 362560 $10,876,800.00 98.75% 4588 $137,640.00
9 Cash Prize $30.00 550473 $16,514,190.00 530279 $15,908,370.00 96.33% 20194 $605,820.00
10 Cash Prize $40.00 367118 $14,684,720.00 363865 $14,554,600.00 99.11% 3253 $130,120.00
11 Cash Prize $40.00 734074 $29,362,960.00 727561 $29,102,440.00 99.11% 6513 $260,520.00
12 Cash Prize $40.00 366941 $14,677,640.00 362402 $14,496,080.00 98.76% 4539 $181,560.00
13 Cash Prize $40.00 367109 $14,684,360.00 352722 $14,108,880.00 96.08% 14387 $575,480.00
14 Cash Prize $50.00 183571 $9,178,550.00 181630 $9,081,500.00 98.94% 1941 $97,050.00
15 Cash Prize $50.00 183577 $9,178,850.00 181588 $9,079,400.00 98.92% 1989 $99,450.00
16 Cash Prize $50.00 183364 $9,168,200.00 181498 $9,074,900.00 98.98% 1866 $93,300.00
17 Cash Prize $50.00 183562 $9,178,100.00 181594 $9,079,700.00 98.93% 1968 $98,400.00
18 Cash Prize $50.00 183547 $9,177,350.00 176615 $8,830,750.00 96.22% 6932 $346,600.00
19 Cash Prize $100.00 152842 $15,284,200.00 151511 $15,151,100.00 99.13% 1331 $133,100.00
20 Cash Prize $100.00 305755 $30,575,500.00 302953 $30,295,300.00 99.08% 2802 $280,200.00
21 Cash Prize $100.00 122173 $12,217,300.00 121035 $12,103,500.00 99.07% 1138 $113,800.00
22 Cash Prize $100.00 122327 $12,232,700.00 121223 $12,122,300.00 99.10% 1104 $110,400.00
23 Cash Prize $100.00 153133 $15,313,300.00 151690 $15,169,000.00 99.06% 1443 $144,300.00
24 Cash Prize $100.00 122515 $12,251,500.00 121377 $12,137,700.00 99.07% 1138 $113,800.00
25 Cash Prize $100.00 122519 $12,251,900.00 121389 $12,138,900.00 99.08% 1130 $113,000.00
26 Cash Prize $100.00 128440 $12,844,000.00 127279 $12,727,900.00 99.10% 1161 $116,100.00
27 Cash Prize $150.00 45855 $6,878,250.00 45457 $6,818,550.00 99.13% 398 $59,700.00
28 Cash Prize $150.00 39753 $5,962,950.00 39416 $5,912,400.00 99.15% 337 $50,550.00
29 Cash Prize $150.00 36674 $5,501,100.00 36355 $5,453,250.00 99.13% 319 $47,850.00
30 Cash Prize $150.00 36708 $5,506,200.00 36330 $5,449,500.00 98.97% 378 $56,700.00
31 Cash Prize $150.00 45861 $6,879,150.00 45457 $6,818,550.00 99.12% 404 $60,600.00
32 Cash Prize $150.00 36773 $5,515,950.00 35375 $5,306,250.00 96.20% 1398 $209,700.00
33 Cash Prize $200.00 24542 $4,908,400.00 24309 $4,861,800.00 99.05% 233 $46,600.00
34 Cash Prize $200.00 24384 $4,876,800.00 24167 $4,833,400.00 99.11% 217 $43,400.00
35 Cash Prize $200.00 24367 $4,873,400.00 24145 $4,829,000.00 99.09% 222 $44,400.00
36 Cash Prize $200.00 18369 $3,673,800.00 18202 $3,640,400.00 99.09% 167 $33,400.00
37 Cash Prize $200.00 18362 $3,672,400.00 18216 $3,643,200.00 99.20% 146 $29,200.00
38 Cash Prize $200.00 18328 $3,665,600.00 18139 $3,627,800.00 98.97% 189 $37,800.00
39 Cash Prize $200.00 18339 $3,667,800.00 17659 $3,531,800.00 96.29% 680 $136,000.00
40 Cash Prize $400.00 12256 $4,902,400.00 12158 $4,863,200.00 99.20% 98 $39,200.00
41 Cash Prize $400.00 9238 $3,695,200.00 9140 $3,656,000.00 98.94% 98 $39,200.00
42 Cash Prize $400.00 9190 $3,676,000.00 9116 $3,646,400.00 99.19% 74 $29,600.00
43 Cash Prize $400.00 9184 $3,673,600.00 9101 $3,640,400.00 99.10% 83 $33,200.00
44 Cash Prize $400.00 9150 $3,660,000.00 9085 $3,634,000.00 99.29% 65 $26,000.00
45 Cash Prize $400.00 9218 $3,687,200.00 9145 $3,658,000.00 99.21% 73 $29,200.00
46 Cash Prize $400.00 15299 $6,119,600.00 15190 $6,076,000.00 99.29% 109 $43,600.00
47 Cash Prize $400.00 9221 $3,688,400.00 8862 $3,544,800.00 96.11% 359 $143,600.00
48 Cash Prize $500.00 15362 $7,681,000.00 15222 $7,611,000.00 99.09% 140 $70,000.00
49 Cash Prize $500.00 12215 $6,107,500.00 12095 $6,047,500.00 99.02% 120 $60,000.00
50 Cash Prize $500.00 9207 $4,603,500.00 9137 $4,568,500.00 99.24% 70 $35,000.00
51 Cash Prize $500.00 12171 $6,085,500.00 12088 $6,044,000.00 99.32% 83 $41,500.00
52 Cash Prize $500.00 12238 $6,119,000.00 12146 $6,073,000.00 99.25% 92 $46,000.00
53 Cash Prize $500.00 9218 $4,609,000.00 9133 $4,566,500.00 99.08% 85 $42,500.00
54 Cash Prize $500.00 22958 $11,479,000.00 22774 $11,387,000.00 99.20% 184 $92,000.00
55 Cash Prize $500.00 9240 $4,620,000.00 8898 $4,449,000.00 96.30% 342 $171,000.00
56 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3698 $3,698,000.00 3644 $3,644,000.00 98.54% 54 $54,000.00
57 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3625 $3,625,000.00 3550 $3,550,000.00 97.93% 75 $75,000.00
58 Cash Prize $1,000.00 2428 $2,428,000.00 2370 $2,370,000.00 97.61% 58 $58,000.00
59 Cash Prize $1,000.00 4635 $4,635,000.00 4539 $4,539,000.00 97.93% 96 $96,000.00
60 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3716 $3,716,000.00 3652 $3,652,000.00 98.28% 64 $64,000.00
61 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3707 $3,707,000.00 3641 $3,641,000.00 98.22% 66 $66,000.00
62 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3706 $3,706,000.00 3634 $3,634,000.00 98.06% 72 $72,000.00
63 Cash Prize $1,000.00 3685 $3,685,000.00 3401 $3,401,000.00 92.29% 284 $284,000.00
64 Cash Prize $5,000.00 312 $1,560,000.00 303 $1,515,000.00 97.12% 9 $45,000.00
65 Cash Prize $5,000.00 304 $1,520,000.00 285 $1,425,000.00 93.75% 19 $95,000.00
66 Cash Prize $20,000.00 60 $1,200,000.00 59 $1,180,000.00 98.33% 1 $20,000.00
67 Cash Prize $20,000.00 60 $1,200,000.00 52 $1,040,000.00 86.67% 8 $160,000.00
68 Cash Prize $50,000.00 18 $900,000.00 16 $800,000.00 88.89% 2 $100,000.00
69 Annuity $707,143.00 54 $38,185,722.00 47 $33,235,721.00 87.04% 7 $4,950,001.00
70 Annuity $3,375,718.00 6 $20,254,308.00 5 $16,878,590.00 83.33% 1 $3,375,718.00
--------- ------------------- --------- ----------------- ------- --------- -------------------
Game Totals 12844850 $706,498,900.00 12630878 $688,186,351.00 98.33% 213972 $18,312,549.00