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is anyone making an income from lottery

Topic closed. 629 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Stack47.

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Posted: May 3, 2013, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

Quad 6's...... I like it.......

U$A
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    Posted: May 3, 2013, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

    "Craps isn't "about timing" it's about the math."

    Thanks stack, if it wasn't for you I would never know what Jam and Bam are professing about.Roll Eyes

    Perhaps timing is intuitive math.  Its a knowing without having to kowtow ( I spelt it correct that timeApprove) to the leftbrained dictatorial need to believe everything in a algebraic formulaic rational manner.

    "Perhaps timing is intuitive math."

    Betting is risk vs reward and I can't see how risking a dollar against winning millions is a huge risk. There are many betting options in the game of Craps including bets with the same odds so that math is irrelevant. With two equal choices intuition has to be the deciding factor.


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      Posted: May 3, 2013, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

      "Perhaps timing is intuitive math."

      Betting is risk vs reward and I can't see how risking a dollar against winning millions is a huge risk. There are many betting options in the game of Craps including bets with the same odds so that math is irrelevant. With two equal choices intuition has to be the deciding factor.

      For the Bettor, intuition is ALWAYS the deciding factor regardless of being right or wrong. Our trouble here is that the Jam and Bone twins are NOT bettors and even try to deny the existence of things like intuition.


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        Posted: May 3, 2013, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

        Quad 6's...... I like it.......

        U$A
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               See Ya!

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          Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:12 pm - IP Logged

          "What are the odds against both the PB and MM 175 million to 1 jackpots being won before the 1st of June?

          Will you still give me 799 to 1 on a $100 bet against that happening?"

           

          When did I ever offer you that?  I didn't say "I'd bet 799 to 1 on anything you want."

           

          I'm not even gonna respond to the rest of it, you're clearly ignoring my point, which is that the math can calculate the probabilities of all those events (streaks, etc.)  It is ALL math.  "Timing" is just the way your percieve it because you're a human (and presumably, you haven't studied statistics) not a robot.

           

          It's your perception, which is off from the truth.  I'm not trying to talk down to you, I'm sure there are plenty of things I percieve, and will later find out is wrong.

          "When did I ever offer you that?  I didn't say "I'd bet 799 to 1 on anything you want."

          Relax, I wasn't suggesting that you would, but would you think about it if I had said "will you give me those odds against me winning either jackpot"?

          "I'm not even gonna respond to the rest of it, you're clearly ignoring my point"

          Your point is obvious, you believe every Craps session is directly related to all previous and future sessions because you did the math. Your math shows what to expect out of the next 100,000 rolls, 20,000 sessions, but math can't tell me what I should expect in the next session which is 20 to 50 rolls. Players are betting the next few rolls will favor them and how much they bet might depend on their last session or winnings from their favorite slot machine.

          "It's your perception, which is off from the truth."

          Your perception is based on long term calculations and mine is based on short term experiences. And from those experiences I can say for a fact the difference between my having a winning or a losing session is the timing of when sevens are rolled.

            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

            I'd like to know if csample76 feels her question has been answered after more than 400 responses.

            And where did she go?  What?

            I feel abandoned...  Sad Wavey

            I feel lost and lonely....  Sad

            I feel like havin' a big ol' glass o' whiskey... Thumbs Up

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              Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

              For the Bettor, intuition is ALWAYS the deciding factor regardless of being right or wrong. Our trouble here is that the Jam and Bone twins are NOT bettors and even try to deny the existence of things like intuition.

              One of them reminds of a very overweight ex-smoker lecturing two fit looking smokers about health hazards.

                Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

                "When did I ever offer you that?  I didn't say "I'd bet 799 to 1 on anything you want."

                Relax, I wasn't suggesting that you would, but would you think about it if I had said "will you give me those odds against me winning either jackpot"?

                "I'm not even gonna respond to the rest of it, you're clearly ignoring my point"

                Your point is obvious, you believe every Craps session is directly related to all previous and future sessions because you did the math. Your math shows what to expect out of the next 100,000 rolls, 20,000 sessions, but math can't tell me what I should expect in the next session which is 20 to 50 rolls. Players are betting the next few rolls will favor them and how much they bet might depend on their last session or winnings from their favorite slot machine.

                "It's your perception, which is off from the truth."

                Your perception is based on long term calculations and mine is based on short term experiences. And from those experiences I can say for a fact the difference between my having a winning or a losing session is the timing of when sevens are rolled.

                As I said, you missed my point entirely.

                 

                You CAN do the math, even for short term sessions.  It's way too long for any person to reasonably do for no good reason, and it's long enough that even by combinatorial analysis a computer would take a long time, which is why we have computers run simulations.  (Or take random samples.)

                 

                Those simulations can describe short term sessions.  And I don't "believe every Craps session is directly related to all previous and future sessions."  They are independent of events, although, no matter how you put it - you're life is one long session.  Each roll is an independent event.  And each "session" is an independent trial of those events.  And you're life is a trials of trials of those events.  Either way, the point is that it doesn't matter how YOU view the timing of when you play and whatnot.  The ENTIRE game is governed by math, which will catch up to you.  So if you play a bunch of short sessions, guess what, you've now essentially played a long session of craps.  It doesn't matter that you chop it up.  It's all ONE LONG SESSION, and it is ALL GOVERNED BY MATH.

                 

                It doesn't matter if you chop it up into different timings, I can assure you that if you added up all your bets the amount of money you lose would be within a few STD DEVs of the house edge 99% of the time... and the math wins out in the end.  Talk about all you care about is the next session if you want.  That's the wrong way of looking at it.  It's like 

                 

                Math CAN tell you what to expect in the next session, which as you describe it, is 20-50 rolls.  I can't do that math by myself, it's too complex, but the math can be done.  You can keep saying it can't, but it absolutely can - and that's a fact.


                 

                Of course this is all pointless since you're just gonna say something false like "math can't tell me anything about the short term," as if you've ever actually studied this stuff.  (Hint, the language you use shows you haven't, so rather than act like you know what you're talking about, the best thing to do would be to either say 1) screw it, I'll just ignore it all or 2) take the time to understand it instead of arguing about things you don't understand...)

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

                  For the Bettor, intuition is ALWAYS the deciding factor regardless of being right or wrong. Our trouble here is that the Jam and Bone twins are NOT bettors and even try to deny the existence of things like intuition.

                  I actually do like to gamble, I just don't play the same games as you.  Intuition in games of chance is nonsense, although, intuition can play a role in games of skill.

                   

                  Of course, if you "intuitively" pick something right, it's easy to think intuition can influence your luck.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: May 3, 2013, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

                    This is a waste of time.

                     

                    You're obviously just gonna assume everything I'm saying is wrong, and despite the fact that you constantly make up things I've "said" and use ridiculous logic (the leap from Pick 3 at 799 to 1 and anybody winning the mega millions/powerball by june at 799 to 1) I've stuck around.  I'm not sure why.  If you actually took the time to understand my arguements, I'm sure you'd be able to learn from them.  And you've generally refrained from being rude, unlike others here, even if you misinterpret my posts frequently.

                     

                    I don't see the point anymore.  Stack, I hope for your sake that you take a step back from arguing and actually try to learn the math.  I think that's unlikely, but if you did learn the math you'd understand what we're saying about the "long term" and how it is extremely relevant to every single gamble you take, even those which you view as "short term."  (And there is no real differentiation mathemetically, we just use those terms arbitrarily because we're humans.... not computers)

                     

                    And Ronnie, I hope you take a step back from spamming this website and realize that you've acted like an egotistical jerk.  Honestly, I could care less, since I'm sure most people on this website probably think you're a joke but just don't care to call you out on it.  But you probably realize that, and thrive on it.

                      grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                      Winning makes me smile.
                      bel air maryland
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                      Posted: May 3, 2013, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

                      I'd like to know if csample76 feels her question has been answered after more than 400 responses.

                      And where did she go?  What?

                      I feel abandoned...  Sad Wavey

                      I feel lost and lonely....  Sad

                      I feel like havin' a big ol' glass o' whiskey... Thumbs Up

                       Probably not... A simple yes or no would have been fine.  Cheers

                      "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                      The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                      Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                        Posted: May 3, 2013, 9:30 pm - IP Logged

                         Probably not... A simple yes or no would have been fine.  Cheers

                        Thumbs Up Cheers Stretch


                                                                     
                                             
                                                                 

                         

                         

                         

                         

                                                                                                                           

                        "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                    --Edmund Burke

                         

                         


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                          Posted: May 3, 2013, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                          Thumbs Up Cheers Stretch

                          This reply is giving me great nostalgia for the revered long lost and legendary hater of pop up ads,"McDoofus."      Sad                 

                          I wonder if he will come back as Lotterychipworker3importologist?


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                            Posted: May 3, 2013, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                            I'd like to know if csample76 feels her question has been answered after more than 400 responses.

                            And where did she go?  What?

                            I feel abandoned...  Sad Wavey

                            I feel lost and lonely....  Sad

                            I feel like havin' a big ol' glass o' whiskey... Thumbs Up

                            Where did she go?

                            She obviously went to see sample 76, lol. That must be one of the samples used in the simulation that Jimmy endorses. Big Grin

                            You know I love ya Jimmy. We may have our different outlooks, but You are a wise person and fun to interact with.

                             

                            sunset

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                              Posted: May 4, 2013, 2:17 am - IP Logged

                              As I said, you missed my point entirely.

                               

                              You CAN do the math, even for short term sessions.  It's way too long for any person to reasonably do for no good reason, and it's long enough that even by combinatorial analysis a computer would take a long time, which is why we have computers run simulations.  (Or take random samples.)

                               

                              Those simulations can describe short term sessions.  And I don't "believe every Craps session is directly related to all previous and future sessions."  They are independent of events, although, no matter how you put it - you're life is one long session.  Each roll is an independent event.  And each "session" is an independent trial of those events.  And you're life is a trials of trials of those events.  Either way, the point is that it doesn't matter how YOU view the timing of when you play and whatnot.  The ENTIRE game is governed by math, which will catch up to you.  So if you play a bunch of short sessions, guess what, you've now essentially played a long session of craps.  It doesn't matter that you chop it up.  It's all ONE LONG SESSION, and it is ALL GOVERNED BY MATH.

                               

                              It doesn't matter if you chop it up into different timings, I can assure you that if you added up all your bets the amount of money you lose would be within a few STD DEVs of the house edge 99% of the time... and the math wins out in the end.  Talk about all you care about is the next session if you want.  That's the wrong way of looking at it.  It's like 

                               

                              Math CAN tell you what to expect in the next session, which as you describe it, is 20-50 rolls.  I can't do that math by myself, it's too complex, but the math can be done.  You can keep saying it can't, but it absolutely can - and that's a fact.


                               

                              Of course this is all pointless since you're just gonna say something false like "math can't tell me anything about the short term," as if you've ever actually studied this stuff.  (Hint, the language you use shows you haven't, so rather than act like you know what you're talking about, the best thing to do would be to either say 1) screw it, I'll just ignore it all or 2) take the time to understand it instead of arguing about things you don't understand...)

                              "You CAN do the math, even for short term sessions.  It's way too long for any person to reasonably do for no good reason, and it's long enough that even by combinatorial analysis a computer would take a long time, which is why we have computers run simulations."

                              I saw shooters roll a series of craps (2,3,12) on the come out roll and one lost all his money before he rolled a number. After three or four straight number, number, seven rolls, most of the Place bettors leave the table. How can billions of simulations help a player determine when a seven will be rolled?

                              "Each roll is an independent event.  And each "session" is an independent trial of those events."

                              That's a given and every player is betting the next roll will benefit them and enough winning outcomes to end the session with a profit.

                              "It doesn't matter if you chop it up into different timings, I can assure you that if you added up all your bets the amount of money you lose would be within a few STD DEVs of the house edge 99% of the time... and the math wins out in the end."

                              The house edge is only 0.004% when a player uses 100 times odds and just one extra winning bet can wipe that out.

                              "Math CAN tell you what to expect in the next session, which as you describe it, is 20-50 rolls."

                              There are several websites explaining how the game is played, the math, and the odds, but nobody can predict the exact order of the next 5 rolls, let alone 50. Anybody can say 5, 6, or 7 sevens should be rolled in the next 36 rolls, but math can't tell them when. 

                              "You can keep saying it can't, but it absolutely can - and that's a fact."

                              Winning and losing is determined by the point repeating before a seven and that is called timing. Rolling 10 consecutive sevens the roll after the point is made won't hurt Place bettors. The strategy of playing Pass Line with two Come bets with odds instead of Place bets is based on not being hurt badly by number, seven or number, number, seven.

                              "Of course this is all pointless since you're just gonna say something false like "math can't tell me anything about the short term," as if you've ever actually studied this stuff."

                              I agree that over time the timing of when the seven shows will balance out, but you don't seem to understand betting strategies and money managment because a player can win enough in one winning session to cover any losses in the next 20.

                                 
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