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Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on May 1, 2013
Your about 12 paragraphs short of matching Boney's prowess Jammy, try again.
I see you like to make fun of people who post long replies.
Except for your buddy Stack. It's totally not hypocritical to ignore that.
It's apparent that you're only here to stroke your ego, and I think it's quite sad, especially that you'd resort to just calling Kimmy an idiot. How old are you, 6? Seriously, grow up.
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 1, 2013
Boney526,
You've been doing a great job explaining these issues in your last few posts. It's wearying, isn't it?
When you concluded that "Stack47" is "...just here to argue with everything I say.," I think you're beginning to understand what's going on here. I went back and looked at his earliest posts - he's been at this for 7 years and there's no sign he'll give it up any time soon. When he says his first LP post questioned why an online site would pay $900 for a straight Pick-3 hit when you can get 3/2 odds by playing 600 numbers, it's clear that he either REALLY does believe certain numbers are more likely to be drawn, OR, he is a fraud, and merely assisting in the efforts here to propagate innumeracy. Regardless of his purpose, I've had about enough of the crudeness that eminates from some of these posters. It would be interesting to know what line of work "Stack47" engages in [or did] by day, but I doubt if he'll tell us the truth about that.
At various times I have stated my "agenda," to help improve critical thinking skills and undertanding of probability. When someone goes to all the trouble that "Stack47" does to obfuscate our efforts, THEIR agenda becomes suspect in my mind. His "double talk" is far beyond annoying, and TOTALLY unnecessary IF he were merely here to look for winning methods.
"At various times I have stated my "agenda," to help improve critical thinking skills and undertanding of probability."
Then why didn't you correct me when I mistakenly told Boney the payoff from laying odds on the 5 or 9 was $300?
"Check this out:"
A trip down memory lane?
The thing is, it's a discussion of lottery systems with several other members offering their opinions. Why aren't there any posts helping to improve critical thinking skills and understanding of probability on that thread?
"his first LP post questioned why an online site would pay $900 for a straight Pick-3 hit when you can get 3/2 odds by playing 600 numbers"
I guess critical thinking means I must explain and number any discussions I had about Online Pick-3 play.
I don't know if it was my first post, 50, or 100, but I did question how an Online site with limited volume could payoff 100 straight winning bets or how the could sustain even a short losing streak with only a 10% edge.
"It would be interesting to know what line of work "Stack47" engages in [or did] by day, but I doubt if he'll tell us the truth about that."
A licensed Psychologist that specialized in patients suffering from Delusions of Grandeur.
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Looks like Peter St. Pierre threw away another 10 grand in the garbage in April 2013 just to get his name on the winner's list. Man, his ego must be so perfectly massaged.
He loves throwing money away just for attention.
So let me see, he won $5,820 last month. I'm guessing he spent about 15 grand.
He just loves throwing money away every month for the last 5 years. Must be nice to have all that expendable money and boredom just to get your name on some list.
Some people's logic on LP astounds me.
I think I'll start doing what peter is doing. For the next five years, I'm going to spend about 10 grand a month to make sure I have enough wins on the Florida winner's list, so I can fool everyone into thinking I have bragging rights. lol
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Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on May 1, 2013
"The odds are the same, 3 to 2 whether it's 6 ways to roll a seven and 4 ways to roll a 9 or 5 or 600 ways to win and 400 ways to lose. Because the odds favor the a Don't pass bettor by 3 to 2 they lay $600 to win $300 and they have $900 worth of chips. By betting 600 numbers the odds favor the Online pick-3 player by 3 to 2 so they are also laying $600 to win $300 and the payoff is the same $900."
Well that's just not true. If you lay 600 on the odds for Don't Pass on a 5/9 you will be paid 400 if you win, plus you will keep the 600 you bet. That adds up to 1000 dollars, which is different than the 900 you end up with playing Pick 3 online.... Your math is wrong dude. I don't know what else to tell you.
"A long run standing at a crap table is under two hours when the dice are "hot" and more likely under one. There is no predictable expectations because you can't calculate short term."
The short term expectations' probabilities absolutely CAN be calculated. It's just so math intensive that statisticians use simulations instead. And while you'd have some small point if it was true that most people only play games of chance one or twice in their lives, that's not true of most gamblers. It doesn't matter if you take a break, and then play another short session. Mathemetically - you're life is one long session as long as you don't decide to stop gambling altogether.
"but it's unlikely the average Craps player will see the next 100 rolls."
If the average craps table gets in 40 rolls per hour, then I'd imagine the "average craps player" is getting around 100 hours of play in a year, and that's 4000 rolls. Say they play the game for 25 years. Then you'll have seen 100000 rolls. I don't have the math in front of me, for confidence levels and the such in craps to "define the long run" but I'm positive that you can get there in a lifetime. In fact, I'm sure that if most "average" players recorded their results and their number of rolls, they'd be really - really close to the house edge. Especially because Pass/Don't Pass have pretty small variance.
Oh and way to ignore, when saying that my math indicating that you will break even in the long run, that I said short run variance is what makes these games FUN for people.
Or you can use your logic, which is ignore the math and just argue with it as if it's stupid to even think about. You can talk about my credibility if you want, but you're response was filled with "facts" that aren't true. Anybody with an hour to kill can look up your claims and will realize they are false....
"Your math is wrong dude."
Yeah I know, but it was too late to edit after I thought about it. Would my math by wrong if I said 60% of the possibilities should win 60% of the outcomes over the long term; 100,000, 25,000, or 10,000 outcomes?
"The short term expectations' probabilities absolutely CAN be calculated."
Good because I'll be going to the boat next month and maybe someone can tell me what I should expect playing Craps for an hour or so.
"Mathemetically - you're life is one long session as long as you don't decide to stop gambling altogether."
It's all in the timing. I don't have a clue how Keith Price decides his picks, but I do know that over time every one will be drawn. One of his six picks hit seven days after it was posted. Luck, coincidence, good timing, intuition, strategy, or all the above?
"If the average craps table gets in 40 rolls per hour, then I'd imagine the "average craps player" is getting around 100 hours of play in a year"
How many rolls on a Craps table the average player should see in a lifetime doesn't even come close to answering can anyone make an income from lottery winnings.
"Or you can use your logic, which is ignore the math and just argue with it as if it's stupid to even think about."
Millions of people play the pick-3 every day and the lotteries payout millions in prizes. How can you logically believe not one player can make a steady income?
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"How many rolls on a Craps table the average player should see in a lifetime doesn't even come close to answering can anyone make an income from lottery winnings."
Then maybe you shouldn't mention it and then chastize me for exposing a hole in your logic.
"Millions of people play the pick-3 every day and the lotteries payout millions in prizes. How can you logically believe not one player can make a steady income?"
First of all, I never said that nobody is ahead, just that a vast majority of people are behind. And nobody is making steady income, because the game - by definition - is not steady.
But yeah keep putting words in my mouth. You're basically arguing with yourself at this point, because everytime you counter me, you're countering something I never said.
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Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on May 1, 2013
"How many rolls on a Craps table the average player should see in a lifetime doesn't even come close to answering can anyone make an income from lottery winnings."
Then maybe you shouldn't mention it and then chastize me for exposing a hole in your logic.
"Millions of people play the pick-3 every day and the lotteries payout millions in prizes. How can you logically believe not one player can make a steady income?"
First of all, I never said that nobody is ahead, just that a vast majority of people are behind. And nobody is making steady income, because the game - by definition - is not steady.
But yeah keep putting words in my mouth. You're basically arguing with yourself at this point, because everytime you counter me, you're countering something I never said.
First of all, I never said that nobody is ahead, just that a vast majority of people are behind. And nobody is making steady income, because the game - by definition - is not steady.
That may be true but, the title of this thread is about steady Income from lottery wins. You yourself write above that the vast majority don't make a living. My opinion is due to the lack of enthusiasm. Birfdays, ages, street numbers, addresses..etc...that's what the majority use. If you ask them what a the root number is, they'll look at you funny.
But at the same time, there's no way anyone knows for sure that there aren't a few who beat the system, despite how strongly you feel about the subject, at this point it really doesn't matter.
If the "Anything's possible given enough time" theory is true, there is no choice but to have those rogue "Hits" so to speak, it's normal actually. Given hits to ratio and the such, and what not.
First of all, I never said that nobody is ahead, just that a vast majority of people are behind. And nobody is making steady income, because the game - by definition - is not steady.
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Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 1, 2013
Looks like Peter St. Pierre threw away another 10 grand in the garbage in April 2013 just to get his name on the winner's list. Man, his ego must be so perfectly massaged.
He loves throwing money away just for attention.
So let me see, he won $5,820 last month. I'm guessing he spent about 15 grand.
He just loves throwing money away every month for the last 5 years. Must be nice to have all that expendable money and boredom just to get your name on some list.
Some people's logic on LP astounds me.
I think I'll start doing what peter is doing. For the next five years, I'm going to spend about 10 grand a month to make sure I have enough wins on the Florida winner's list, so I can fool everyone into thinking I have bragging rights. lol
Somebody recently conjectured that maybe he's advertising and buying winning tickets for cash. He would have to absorb any tax increase he might experience but he might have a business that's structured in a way that this might not be a problem. Doesn't this seem like a more plausible explanation for his [apparent] wins? Who knows, maybe he's got a publisher ready to publish his "How To" book as soon as his reputation gets national attention.
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 1, 2013
Somebody recently conjectured that maybe he's advertising and buying winning tickets for cash. He would have to absorb any tax increase he might experience but he might have a business that's structured in a way that this might not be a problem. Doesn't this seem like a more plausible explanation for his [apparent] wins? Who knows, maybe he's got a publisher ready to publish his "How To" book as soon as his reputation gets national attention.
Reputation? It's been about 5 years now. How long before we get a confirmation? vvvv
Who knows, maybe he's got a publisher ready to publish his "How To" book as soon as his reputation gets national attention.
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Sorry Jimmy, it's true, Logic is of the utmost importance, but mathematically, a Bee shouldn't be able to fly according to the math involved, yet it does, not so gracefully, but does the job nevertheless.
So despite the logic that may dictate winning on a regular basis being far-fetched, think again. Anything is possible, as long as it can be perceived first by some living or semi/living entity.
Existence is reliant upon observers/Observing/awareness.
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 1, 2013
Somebody recently conjectured that maybe he's advertising and buying winning tickets for cash. He would have to absorb any tax increase he might experience but he might have a business that's structured in a way that this might not be a problem. Doesn't this seem like a more plausible explanation for his [apparent] wins? Who knows, maybe he's got a publisher ready to publish his "How To" book as soon as his reputation gets national attention.
If someone paid face value for a winning ticket, would it not be a zero profit situation?
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Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on May 1, 2013
I see you like to make fun of people who post long replies.
Except for your buddy Stack. It's totally not hypocritical to ignore that.
It's apparent that you're only here to stroke your ego, and I think it's quite sad, especially that you'd resort to just calling Kimmy an idiot. How old are you, 6? Seriously, grow up.
Why do you continue to be so anal about everything Boney? I don't think Jammy is offended over being called an idiot like you seem to be over me calling him an idiot. Im sure he understands that its just my opinion and NOT personal....... Jammy is my friend. He is the Rocket Man. You are a big cry baby.....