"Beating the House!"Prev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Jack Thompson

United States
Member #118,052
October 21, 2011
21 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Nov 26, 2013
Due to the odds, beating the house at the casinos is a lot easier than at the lottery.

As far as the lottery goes, I have never seen a successful system, formula, whatever, that allows someone to consistently win more than they lose.

The only people that come out ahead are the big winners that have the most important element on their side: luck. And many big winners end up losing much of their money back to the lottery and other unwise spending.

All of the lottery systems fall down when asked to post predictions in advance over a selected time period.

People play the high odds of the lottery out of a hope to win. The lottery is selling hope...

Well thank God and all that is Holy! A couple of free-thinkers. You and eddessaknight (previous poster) have a fundamental understanding at least. But you don't think or believe that you can do it consistantly and that luck has more of a role than anything and you are absolutely "wrong."

I'm not sure where this overall mindset comes from. Maybe its just part of the human condition. To make excuses when we fail. Again, this has nothing to do with any system. There's no "system" to fail. And there is no such thing anyway. At least one that works.

It could be considered a statagy I suppose. But its not a numbers stratagy, its assuming a position against the house and using basic probabilities against them the same way they use them against the players. I'm not taunting or playing anybody, I just think its amazing that so many people who play or gamble don't understand this most basic fundamental concept.

I've probably said too much already. This was not meant to do anything except satisfy my own curiousity.
Jack Thompson

United States
Member #118,052
October 21, 2011
21 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
Well thank God and all that is Holy! A couple of free-thinkers. You and eddessaknight (previous poster) have a fundamental understanding at least. But you don't think or believe that you can do it consistantly and that luck has more of a role than anything and you are absolutely "wrong."

I'm not sure where this overall mindset comes from. Maybe its just part of the human condition. To make excuses when we fail. Again, this has nothing to do with any system. There's no "system" to fail. And there is no such thing anyway. At least one that works.

It could be considered a statagy I suppose. But its not a numbers stratagy, its assuming a position against the house and using basic probabilities against them the same way they use them against the players. I'm not taunting or playing anybody, I just think its amazing that so many people who play or gamble don't understand this most basic fundamental concept.

I've probably said too much already. This was not meant to do anything except satisfy my own curiousity.

You are absolutely right about one thing Duckman - The lotteries and every other method of gambling are just that, "hope." And there are bigger reasons for lotteries than many people can concieve. Its that "hope" that keeps the masses calm and managable. Without that "hope" can you imagine the depths of what mankind would sink to.
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:39 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
Well thank God and all that is Holy! A couple of free-thinkers. You and eddessaknight (previous poster) have a fundamental understanding at least. But you don't think or believe that you can do it consistantly and that luck has more of a role than anything and you are absolutely "wrong."

I'm not sure where this overall mindset comes from. Maybe its just part of the human condition. To make excuses when we fail. Again, this has nothing to do with any system. There's no "system" to fail. And there is no such thing anyway. At least one that works.

It could be considered a statagy I suppose. But its not a numbers stratagy, its assuming a position against the house and using basic probabilities against them the same way they use them against the players. I'm not taunting or playing anybody, I just think its amazing that so many people who play or gamble don't understand this most basic fundamental concept.

I've probably said too much already. This was not meant to do anything except satisfy my own curiousity.

The problem is when it comes to the lottery, even if someone was to improve their odds favorably by say 5% (that in itself would be hard to do), the odds are so bad to start with, that the 5% would not make much of a difference overall in coming out ahead over time.

Now, if you could take that same 5% improvement to a casino to some of the better odds games you would be much better off.

As I said before, I have never seen a system (or call it formula or strategy), provide consistent winning over time (that meaning overall you win more than you lose). Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
You are absolutely right about one thing Duckman - The lotteries and every other method of gambling are just that, "hope." And there are bigger reasons for lotteries than many people can concieve. Its that "hope" that keeps the masses calm and managable. Without that "hope" can you imagine the depths of what mankind would sink to.

"Hope" is also one key factor that drives the stock market.
LottoBoner

United States
Member #124,487
March 14, 2012
7,021 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
Well... 50 viewers inside of 20 minutes and not 1 answer! That tells me quite a bit in and of itself. In fact, it speaks volumes. People play with no idea of how they're going to win. Amazing!

Well it could be 48 non members.
LottoBoner

United States
Member #124,487
March 14, 2012
7,021 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Nov 26, 2013
Greetings Jack, et al-

Making sensible points & rasing good questions-

Of course the house has more bank roll money and has dealt a losing propsoition to the player because of the negative expecvtation.

Not being intentionally snide pr synical mind you, but now who is going to teach helpmewin how to win long term overcoming the house odds with a positive ROI (return on investment_???

La fortuna oltre la magia numeri odds

Thanks in advance for being candid.

Best Wishes for a Happy Thankgiving

EddessaKnight

The casinos dont suffer from Fear of Loss either.

Casinos can probably get bailouts from the government, and declare bankruptcy. Is that not what the Donald did?

Although people can do that too, I think it is being made harder for regular folk.
Jack Thompson

United States
Member #118,052
October 21, 2011
21 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Nov 26, 2013
The problem is when it comes to the lottery, even if someone was to improve their odds favorably by say 5% (that in itself would be hard to do), the odds are so bad to start with, that the 5% would not make much of a difference overall in coming out ahead over time.

Now, if you could take that same 5% improvement to a casino to some of the better odds games you would be much better off.

As I said before, I have never seen a system (or call it formula or strategy), provide consistent winning over time (that meaning overall you win more than you lose). Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.

Alright - I completely understand your point. It is the most commonly accepted view among players. And please excuse me for saying were wrong. In polite society we don't do that. I was wrong. But OK, its been said that looking for consistancy in a random game is what the casinos and state lotteries count on. Fools who think they can find it.

But have you ever thought of using the "randomness" against the house. Or even better, taking it out of the mix completely? Dealing with probability not possibility and a "reasonable" expectation of winning?

I spoke on this before. Perception is reallity - So what's your reallity? Are you a visionary or is your thinking limited to what you've been told is true? These are questions you must ask and answer yourself. And If I get enough people to participate in at least saying they don't know the answer I will enlighten everyone.

By the way - I don't believe in "luck." I think you make your own.
LottoBoner

United States
Member #124,487
March 14, 2012
7,021 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:57 pm

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Nov 26, 2013
The problem is when it comes to the lottery, even if someone was to improve their odds favorably by say 5% (that in itself would be hard to do), the odds are so bad to start with, that the 5% would not make much of a difference overall in coming out ahead over time.

Now, if you could take that same 5% improvement to a casino to some of the better odds games you would be much better off.

As I said before, I have never seen a system (or call it formula or strategy), provide consistent winning over time (that meaning overall you win more than you lose). Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.

Just because you have not seen it does not mean it does not exist.

Have you ever seen a microwave or an X-Ray?

Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.

Although your point is cogent DuckMan, in order to solve a problem of randomness, the number one solution is to utilize random qualities.
Jack Thompson

United States
Member #118,052
October 21, 2011
21 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 4:59 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBoner on Nov 26, 2013
Just because you have not seen it does not mean it does not exist.

Have you ever seen a microwave or an X-Ray?

Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.

Although your point is cogent DuckMan, in order to solve a problem of randomness, the number one solution is to utilize random qualities.

And you sir, are a visionary!
LottoBoner

United States
Member #124,487
March 14, 2012
7,021 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:01 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
And you sir, are a visionary!

Aw shucks,

Welcome to LP!
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBoner on Nov 26, 2013
Just because you have not seen it does not mean it does not exist.

Have you ever seen a microwave or an X-Ray?

Why? Because with lottery games the number one reason is randomness to which the number one solution is luck.

Although your point is cogent DuckMan, in order to solve a problem of randomness, the number one solution is to utilize random qualities.

Just because you have not seen it does not mean it does not exist.
What I did say was that I have never seen a system/strategy/formula/etc. that works as I described it. I am still waiting. They all have fallen down when put to the test.

Have you ever seen a microwave or an X-Ray?
No, but they can be measured.
LottoBoner

United States
Member #124,487
March 14, 2012
7,021 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:08 pm

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Nov 26, 2013
Just because you have not seen it does not mean it does not exist.
What I did say was that I have never seen a system/strategy/formula/etc. that works as I described it. I am still waiting. They all have fallen down when put to the test.

Have you ever seen a microwave or an X-Ray?
No, but they can be measured.

So the true question, is not what is randomness or what is luck, but how do you measure randomness, and how do you measure luck?

And not only how do you do it, but what is the most effective means to bring upon some "SMART LUCK" and some "EXPECTED" randomness.

But this is all semantics. The true nitty gritty is in the measuring and one of the best tools for that is EXCEL.

And although my quantum physics is a little rusty, I am not so sure the same device that measures microwaves, will necessarily measure X-Rays, and thus TWO devices or PERSPECTIVES might be necessary to get the WHOLE picture.
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
11,788 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:09 pm

I seriously doubt that the person - 'Jack Thompson'- whp put up the OP has spent any time behind the tables.

The casino industry considers only two types of players can be consistent winners and they are poker players and some sports bettors.

But poker players aren't 'beating the house' because they are playing against and paying each other and the house rakes the pot. In some places that are strictly poker houses the house not only rakes the pot but charges an hourly fee to rent the seat, think about that one.

Sports betor have to have a 52.6% win percentage to break even. Most don't because they bet 'eith the public' and get slaughtered.

As for other games, the house knows that the longer a player plays the more they give the odds the cance to prove themselves, over and over and over ad nauseam.

The house (and bookies) also knows this, gamblers have a psychological need to lose.

They also know that at the end of the year hji-rollers are hi-losers.

See the last line in my sig.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Jack Thompson

United States
Member #118,052
October 21, 2011
21 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Nov 26, 2013
I seriously doubt that the person - 'Jack Thompson'- whp put up the OP has spent any time behind the tables.

The casino industry considers only two types of players can be consistent winners and they are poker players and some sports bettors.

But poker players aren't 'beating the house' because they are playing against and paying each other and the house rakes the pot. In some places that are strictly poker houses the house not only rakes the pot but charges an hourly fee to rent the seat, think about that one.

Sports betor have to have a 52.6% win percentage to break even. Most don't because they bet 'eith the public' and get slaughtered.

As for other games, the house knows that the longer a player plays the more they give the odds the cance to prove themselves, over and over and over ad nauseam.

The house (and bookies) also knows this, gamblers have a psychological need to lose.

They also know that at the end of the year hji-rollers are hi-losers.

See the last line in my sig.

Yes, very profound - most definitly words to live by there "Coin Toss." Thank you for input and in depth analysis.
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2013, 5:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jack Thompson on Nov 26, 2013
Alright - I completely understand your point. It is the most commonly accepted view among players. And please excuse me for saying were wrong. In polite society we don't do that. I was wrong. But OK, its been said that looking for consistancy in a random game is what the casinos and state lotteries count on. Fools who think they can find it.

But have you ever thought of using the "randomness" against the house. Or even better, taking it out of the mix completely? Dealing with probability not possibility and a "reasonable" expectation of winning?

I spoke on this before. Perception is reallity - So what's your reallity? Are you a visionary or is your thinking limited to what you've been told is true? These are questions you must ask and answer yourself. And If I get enough people to participate in at least saying they don't know the answer I will enlighten everyone.

By the way - I don't believe in "luck." I think you make your own.

You can put yourself in a position for luck to happen but that does not guarantee it will happen. For example, buying 1 lottery ticket grants you the opportunity for randomness to use luck to select your numbers. Without that 1 ticket, there is 100% chance you won't win.

You can be a visionary and still be grounded in scientific approach. Thinking outside of the box is not limited by this.

As I said earlier, I have never seen a system/formula/strategy/etc. that allows someone to come out ahead consistently over time (that is making more than you spend).

It is simple: If anyone has a system/formula/strategy/etc. let's put it to the test (test involves posting predictions before the drawings).

My reality? trust but verify

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

"Beating the House!"Prev TopicNext Topic

"Beating the House!"Prev Topic Next Topic