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Lotto Fallacies

Topic closed. 62 replies. Last post 3 years ago by LottoBoner.

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Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
10392 Posts
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Posted: April 1, 2014, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

You're another dense brained moron. For the 79th time already, the reason there are more winners with QPs is because most people play QPs not because the computer picks better numbers, as if there are things as better numbers by a random generator. DUH

Duh Duh Duuuuuh!!!!!

What did they put in the drinks at the casino you worked at?

Make a bet with someone, every time a QP wins a jp you pay them $1,000 and everytime a self pick wins they pay you $1,000.

What do you think the tally would be at the end of every year?

Now who us the dense brained moron?

Stats are stats, no one said anything about 'better numbers', there is no such thing. Once again your inaccurate assumptions prove you let other things overide any thought process you may have had.

The peoople who vehemently 'hate' quick picks only do so because they have out of control egos.

YEEESH.

Adios.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    Avatar
    Baton Rouge, LA
    United States
    Member #4602
    May 7, 2004
    700 Posts
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    Posted: April 1, 2014, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

    One of the biggest fallacies believed by many is "Don't play quick picks."

    Most jackpots are won by quick picks and that's all there is to it.

    That is true, but I think it's because most people play quick picks, not necessarily because they are better or worse.

    I've been curious about own numbers vs quick picks and decided to do a little study on it. What I've been doing is tracking how many numbers I match on Louisiana Lotto(pick 6/40, minimum 3 to win) and have found something interesting.

    For the last 52 drawings, I've played both a set of numbers my wife and I picked and a quick pick and here are the results.

    The hand picked set of numbers has matched an average of 0.692 numbers/draw, while playing a different quick pick every week has matched an average of 0.807 numbers/draw. Out of those 52 drawings, I've had only one winner, a match 3 for $3, and it was one of the quick picks. Both a quick pick and the hand picked number had a median of 1 number matched, i.e. half matched more, half matched less. On both, most didn't match a single number.

    For the quick picks, 10 have matched at least 2 numbers, with one matching 3, while on the hand picked numbers, 7 have matched 2 numbers. From my statistics, it looks like quick picks may have a little more of an edge over hand picked numbers, but it isn't much.

    My theory on this is if only playing one or two tickets, it probably doesn't make much of a difference, but if playing a large number of tickets, it might be better to pick your own numbers because you can have a bigger mix of numbers, with fewer repeats between tickets, which could increase the chance of winning something because with more numbers in the matrix played, the better chance of getting a match.

    Just my opinion.

    Prisoner Six

    "I am not a number, I am a free man!"


      United States
      Member #124493
      March 14, 2012
      7023 Posts
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      Posted: April 1, 2014, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

      LottoBoner,

      From the Powerball website FAQ page:

      WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS?

      About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to80% of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weird coincidences?

      We could even say that not havinf any fairh in quick picks is itself a fallacy!

      So now who gets the Dupe alert? Or is it more something like "Don't dare challenge my opinion with facts!"

      Have a nice day and Good Luck to you.

       Lep

      Do you believe everything you read on the internet?Dupe Alert

      No offense, but if they dont have QP sales by state, by draw, by jackpot amount, with totals, and percentages etc, etc, then MUSL is just pulling stats out of a hat. 

      Its called psuedo-accounting.

      If 1 billion QP lottery tickets are sold and one wins, do your odds of winning increase so much because you happened to buy a QP ticket?  Thats what I call a one in a billion chance. Thats worse then the odds stated on the playcard!!!!

       

      And just think about it coin-toss, why would MUSL, who is against people winning the JACKPOT, (after all thats why the increased the matrix,)  liberally give out such info?  Thats because it most likely is a lie.

      You are starting to sound like a PB marketing agent.

      No lottery experience, no predictions on the boards.Dupe Alert

      Don't make the mistake that you are some sort of lottery genius spewing great QP advice just because you spun the little white ball 20 years ago.

      Now if you were a croupier who also had as good and better charts than Advantage plus, using VBA and excel, then I might listen to you.Type


        United States
        Member #128790
        June 2, 2012
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        Posted: April 1, 2014, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

        Make a bet with someone, every time a QP wins a jp you pay them $1,000 and everytime a self pick wins they pay you $1,000.

        What do you think the tally would be at the end of every year?

        Now who us the dense brained moron?

        Stats are stats, no one said anything about 'better numbers', there is no such thing. Once again your inaccurate assumptions prove you let other things overide any thought process you may have had.

        The peoople who vehemently 'hate' quick picks only do so because they have out of control egos.

        YEEESH.

        Adios.

        OMG!

        You must be retarded for sure.

        Imagine If 95% of the ticket sales where QP's and 90% of the JP winners were QP tickets, would you attribute those wins to the RANDOM GENERATOR, or attribute it to the FACT, that since 85% of the people winning from QPs, it's OBVIOUSLY because MORE people (95%) are playing QPs? Only 5% are playing Qps. DUH DUH DUH

        If your answer is because the random generator is magically making more winners than self picks, you're too far gone for the dialogue between you and I to continue beyond your answer.

        A 7 year old can understand this.

        Either some of you here are trolls and playing dumb to spark a fight, or you're really that dense. For you and the other's sake, I'd hope trolling was the truth because if people are this dense, then the problem is bigger than I thought. It's an epidemic.

        How did you people make it this far in life? it boggles my mind.

          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
          Texas
          United States
          Member #55889
          October 23, 2007
          5770 Posts
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          Posted: April 1, 2014, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

          OMG!

          You must be retarded for sure.

          Imagine If 95% of the ticket sales where QP's and 90% of the JP winners were QP tickets, would you attribute those wins to the RANDOM GENERATOR, or attribute it to the FACT, that since 85% of the people winning from QPs, it's OBVIOUSLY because MORE people (95%) are playing QPs? Only 5% are playing Qps. DUH DUH DUH

          If your answer is because the random generator is magically making more winners than self picks, you're too far gone for the dialogue between you and I to continue beyond your answer.

          A 7 year old can understand this.

          Either some of you here are trolls and playing dumb to spark a fight, or you're really that dense. For you and the other's sake, I'd hope trolling was the truth because if people are this dense, then the problem is bigger than I thought. It's an epidemic.

          How did you people make it this far in life? it boggles my mind.

          I don't have a dog in this hunt. I play QP's and self picks.

          Having said that....

          onlymoney.... in several threads if you disagree with someone, you immediately start insulting and calling names.  Dude, it's ok to disagree. Everybody has different opinions. But you really appear to be a 10 year old every time you post. Didn't your mama raise you better?

          CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

          A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
            United States
            Member #30470
            January 17, 2006
            10392 Posts
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            Posted: April 2, 2014, 12:23 am - IP Logged

            LottoBoner,

            We're talking about jackpot winners. Both MM and PB post all winners. How many times here in the News forum jackpot fever threads has it been revealed that the winning ticket was or wasn't a QP?

            I'mn aware of what you calle pseudo accounting. Actually it's called voodoo accounting and one example is how the states make it appear that lotto money goes into the education systems. An equal amount or more is pulled out of the sytem somewhere else.

            Let's say the MUSL may not want a lot of winners, but without any winners who would play? Paying out jackpots is part of doing byusiness.

            I never said I was a lottery genius and I never spun a little white ball. I'm surprised to see you make assumptions. Am also surprised that you also think theres something wrong with people not making predictions on the boards. Most people don't even bet their own.

            There are currently 154,047 mmbers here and 6,677 have made predictions so wha't the big deal? Considering those numbers I find it very curious that those who flinch at the jp qp stats make such a fuss over people not making predictions.

            Here's a prediction, onlymoney will give a thread a 1 star rating without even reading it, just because he doesn't like the poster he'll do it for spite. Also this is done unconsciuouslly on his part because he doesn't have enough creativity to start too many threads. A chooch with a keyboard.

            _________________________________________________________________________________

            onlymoney,

            It's somewhat entertaining to see someone like you who rarely starts threads insult other people and give those who do start thread 1 star ratings for spite. You're extremely obvious. The smart money says when you were a kid you were one of the little snots who would be the one to bring a football and demand to play quarterback or take your ball home. Wah wah wah.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


              United States
              Member #128790
              June 2, 2012
              5431 Posts
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              Posted: April 2, 2014, 1:52 am - IP Logged

              I don't have a dog in this hunt. I play QP's and self picks.

              Having said that....

              onlymoney.... in several threads if you disagree with someone, you immediately start insulting and calling names.  Dude, it's ok to disagree. Everybody has different opinions. But you really appear to be a 10 year old every time you post. Didn't your mama raise you better?

              onlymoney.... in several threads if you disagree with someone, you immediately start insulting and calling names.  Dude, it's ok to disagree. Everybody has different opinions. But you really appear to be a 10 year old every time you post. Didn't your mama raise you better?

               

              It didn't start that way. What you see is a culmination of events from many discussions on this topic from the past. And it's not exclusive to one person.

              BTW, my momma is dead.


                United States
                Member #128790
                June 2, 2012
                5431 Posts
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                Posted: April 2, 2014, 2:03 am - IP Logged

                LottoBoner,

                We're talking about jackpot winners. Both MM and PB post all winners. How many times here in the News forum jackpot fever threads has it been revealed that the winning ticket was or wasn't a QP?

                I'mn aware of what you calle pseudo accounting. Actually it's called voodoo accounting and one example is how the states make it appear that lotto money goes into the education systems. An equal amount or more is pulled out of the sytem somewhere else.

                Let's say the MUSL may not want a lot of winners, but without any winners who would play? Paying out jackpots is part of doing byusiness.

                I never said I was a lottery genius and I never spun a little white ball. I'm surprised to see you make assumptions. Am also surprised that you also think theres something wrong with people not making predictions on the boards. Most people don't even bet their own.

                There are currently 154,047 mmbers here and 6,677 have made predictions so wha't the big deal? Considering those numbers I find it very curious that those who flinch at the jp qp stats make such a fuss over people not making predictions.

                Here's a prediction, onlymoney will give a thread a 1 star rating without even reading it, just because he doesn't like the poster he'll do it for spite. Also this is done unconsciuouslly on his part because he doesn't have enough creativity to start too many threads. A chooch with a keyboard.

                _________________________________________________________________________________

                onlymoney,

                It's somewhat entertaining to see someone like you who rarely starts threads insult other people and give those who do start thread 1 star ratings for spite. You're extremely obvious. The smart money says when you were a kid you were one of the little snots who would be the one to bring a football and demand to play quarterback or take your ball home. Wah wah wah.

                Please don't let my empty star rating threats get in the way of you expressing yourself.

                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                  Texas
                  United States
                  Member #55889
                  October 23, 2007
                  5770 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 2, 2014, 8:17 am - IP Logged

                  onlymoney.... in several threads if you disagree with someone, you immediately start insulting and calling names.  Dude, it's ok to disagree. Everybody has different opinions. But you really appear to be a 10 year old every time you post. Didn't your mama raise you better?

                   

                  It didn't start that way. What you see is a culmination of events from many discussions on this topic from the past. And it's not exclusive to one person.

                  BTW, my momma is dead.

                  My mom passed away in 1994. My dad in 2005. But she and my dad raised me to be a man and taught me to respect others.

                  CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                  A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10392 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 2, 2014, 10:56 am - IP Logged

                    Please don't let my empty star rating threats get in the way of you expressing yourself.

                    Put your ego in park.

                    You're the only one who sees yourself as a 'threat' (hilarious). A lot of others see you as a flea.

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


                      United States
                      Member #124493
                      March 14, 2012
                      7023 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 2, 2014, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                      LottoBoner,

                      We're talking about jackpot winners. Both MM and PB post all winners. How many times here in the News forum jackpot fever threads has it been revealed that the winning ticket was or wasn't a QP?

                      I'mn aware of what you calle pseudo accounting. Actually it's called voodoo accounting and one example is how the states make it appear that lotto money goes into the education systems. An equal amount or more is pulled out of the sytem somewhere else.

                      Let's say the MUSL may not want a lot of winners, but without any winners who would play? Paying out jackpots is part of doing byusiness.

                      I never said I was a lottery genius and I never spun a little white ball. I'm surprised to see you make assumptions. Am also surprised that you also think theres something wrong with people not making predictions on the boards. Most people don't even bet their own.

                      There are currently 154,047 mmbers here and 6,677 have made predictions so wha't the big deal? Considering those numbers I find it very curious that those who flinch at the jp qp stats make such a fuss over people not making predictions.

                      Here's a prediction, onlymoney will give a thread a 1 star rating without even reading it, just because he doesn't like the poster he'll do it for spite. Also this is done unconsciuouslly on his part because he doesn't have enough creativity to start too many threads. A chooch with a keyboard.

                      _________________________________________________________________________________

                      onlymoney,

                      It's somewhat entertaining to see someone like you who rarely starts threads insult other people and give those who do start thread 1 star ratings for spite. You're extremely obvious. The smart money says when you were a kid you were one of the little snots who would be the one to bring a football and demand to play quarterback or take your ball home. Wah wah wah.

                      I am talking about jackpot winners.  Yes I do notice sometimes a lot of Jackpot winners with quick pick, but I do noticie those you play their own numbers.

                      Without concise proper statistical background, confirmed but a third party, I am not going to hold my breath to win a JP with a quick pick.  Or even think the info at the website is true.

                       

                        A payer could feasibly use knowledge of ODDs (Not the kind of odds they understand in the reticuli system) to increase my chances of a winning wheel by using the LOTTO WIN FREQUENCY CHARTS ON PAGE 131 of the LMG.  That is NOT a LOTTO FALLACY.

                      If you say you are from the Vermicelli Reticuli system, am I to assume you are a homosapien?


                        United States
                        Member #124493
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                        7023 Posts
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                        Posted: April 2, 2014, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

                        Make a bet with someone, every time a QP wins a jp you pay them $1,000 and everytime a self pick wins they pay you $1,000.

                        What do you think the tally would be at the end of every year?

                        Now who us the dense brained moron?

                        Stats are stats, no one said anything about 'better numbers', there is no such thing. Once again your inaccurate assumptions prove you let other things overide any thought process you may have had.

                        The peoople who vehemently 'hate' quick picks only do so because they have out of control egos.

                        YEEESH.

                        Adios.

                        Stats are stats, no one said anything about 'better numbers', there is no such thing. Once again your inaccurate assumptions prove you let other things overide any thought process you may have had.

                         

                        Thank you coin toss!!!

                        You have added for us another Lotto Fallacy.

                        Stats are not just stats, stats are keys to winning.

                         Lotto fallacy #4    there are no such thing as better numbers.

                        We have lotto fallacy number 4 is it now?

                        I bet MUSL would love to have you preach this too, from the mountain tops!!!  Play quickpicks and dont play the better numbers.  YIKES!Poke

                          noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                          Bay Area - California
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                          Posted: April 2, 2014, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

                          Another fallacy is that "Only Older People" win the lottery.
                          I guess its based on the fact that a  20something has not been seen holding the " cardboard cheque"  lately.

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
                            United States
                            Member #30470
                            January 17, 2006
                            10392 Posts
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                            Posted: April 2, 2014, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

                            LottoBoner,

                            " Or even think the info at the website is true."

                            Do tell. Excuse me for forgetting that the lotteries tap into the CIA to produce photos of winning tickets and add QP after the last digit to make the QP statistics what they want them to be. They alter the news films, websites, etc......

                            <Insert tin hat here>

                            PS,

                            Vermicelli? You're killing me!

                            LOL!

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                              Los Angeles, California
                              United States
                              Member #103813
                              January 5, 2011
                              1530 Posts
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                              Posted: April 2, 2014, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

                              Another fallacy is that "Only Older People" win the lottery.
                              I guess its based on the fact that a  20something has not been seen holding the " cardboard cheque"  lately.

                              Actually, no, that one is true.

                              Putting your young whippersnapper dollars up against old people dollars, that's like North Dakota going up against California in Powerball.

                              Sorry, you got no chance bub.