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Lotto Fallacies

Topic closed. 62 replies. Last post 3 years ago by LottoBoner.

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Kentucky
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Posted: April 2, 2014, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

I am talking about jackpot winners.  Yes I do notice sometimes a lot of Jackpot winners with quick pick, but I do noticie those you play their own numbers.

Without concise proper statistical background, confirmed but a third party, I am not going to hold my breath to win a JP with a quick pick.  Or even think the info at the website is true.

 

  A payer could feasibly use knowledge of ODDs (Not the kind of odds they understand in the reticuli system) to increase my chances of a winning wheel by using the LOTTO WIN FREQUENCY CHARTS ON PAGE 131 of the LMG.  That is NOT a LOTTO FALLACY.

If you say you are from the Vermicelli Reticuli system, am I to assume you are a homosapien?

One of the biggest fallacies believed by many is "Don't play quick picks."

It's probably useless asking why an opinion with no bases is even called a fallacy or where we can find the statistical evidence proving "it's believed by many".  A clerk at the Cashing Agent never heard any player tell another not to play QPs in her 10 years of employment. Saying "it's believed by many" without any statistical evidence is probably the real fallacy.

"Without concise proper statistical background, confirmed but a third party, I am not going to hold my breath to win a JP with a quick pick."

The "ABOUT" statistics used by PB are an estimate and about the same as saying if 70% to 80% of all tickets were purchased by right handed people, about the same percentage of winners should be right handed. When tickets sales are 100 million, the unknown difference could be 10 million tickets. It's like saying "When Lefties purchase 20% of the tickets, Righties have a much better chance of winning; give or take the 10 million tickets we have no idea of which side purchased".

"Don't dare challenge my opinion with facts!"

That's assuming there are the facts proving "don't play QPs" is believed by many, but that was never shown.

"to increase my chances of a winning wheel

We saw where Steve Player increased his payoff by playing the same five PB numbers 35 times with each of the bonus numbers and others increased their winnings by using the same bonus number with several lines. But these statistics are just like with QPs because we don't know how many other self picks were played or the overall ratio of any ticket purchases to winning tickets.

"Lotto fallacy #4    there are no such thing as better numbers."

It's a fact some numbers will be drawn more frequently than others and any number frequency chart proves that. The number 23 was drawn 10 times in the last 50 MM drawings and a player purchasing a QP with the numbers 38, 51, and/or 61 had zero chance of winning the jackpot or matching 5 + 0. I'm not saying self picks are better, but MM has a total of 169,442,196 combinations that will match zero numbers including the bonus number in every drawing.

PB has 107,525,340 "dead combos" and if about 70% to 80% of the players are buying QPs, using the same logic, 70% to 80% of those QPs are dead combos.

    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
    Bay Area - California
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    Posted: April 2, 2014, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

    Actually, no, that one is true.

    Putting your young whippersnapper dollars up against old people dollars, that's like North Dakota going up against California in Powerball.

    Sorry, you got no chance bub.

    You may be onto something the JD- but correct me if l am wrong, l think  ND has won the PB before California....yeah l know we only into this particular game less than a year, but in a State that has neighbors living 10 miles apart...they got us beat to the finish line.
    The Elderly are also using Mattress money..that counts for something.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: April 2, 2014, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

      Stack47,

      One question for you. How come these so called 'better numbers' haven't won jackpots.

      I've never heard a winner say they played 'better numbers', have you?

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


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        Posted: April 2, 2014, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

        CRICKETS


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          Posted: April 2, 2014, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

          CRICKETS

            helpmewin's avatar - dandy
            u$a
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            Posted: April 3, 2014, 12:02 am - IP Logged

            CRICKETS

              yes i think it is a new system, i think  someone hacked in to my messagesRant

            Let it Snow Snowman

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: April 3, 2014, 12:12 am - IP Logged

              Real good, if you can't counter facts refute them although you have no proof to back you up.

              As for "crickets" odd that the person calling others 'crickets' is thge one that makes back to back posts, often quoting himself. What a stroker.

              It all would be a little more entertaining if it wasn't so pathetic.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                Posted: April 3, 2014, 11:21 am - IP Logged

                You may be onto something the JD- but correct me if l am wrong, l think  ND has won the PB before California....yeah l know we only into this particular game less than a year, but in a State that has neighbors living 10 miles apart...they got us beat to the finish line.
                The Elderly are also using Mattress money..that counts for something.

                but correct me if l am wrong, l think  ND has won the PB before California

                Last time I checked, the score was California: 3, North Dakota: 0

                I think you are confusing North with South, that's an insult to some Dakotans. No No

                  noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                  Bay Area - California
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                  Posted: April 3, 2014, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

                  but correct me if l am wrong, l think  ND has won the PB before California

                  Last time I checked, the score was California: 3, North Dakota: 0

                  I think you are confusing North with South, that's an insult to some Dakotans. No No

                  Apart from the Coen Brothers putting one State on the map- there is nothing there to brag about. One State sucks, the other Blows. If you ever up there try visiting their" Corn Palaces"- those suckers are made from corn & sorghum,yep.
                  Nothing but prairie and fossil peaks here & there- you'd pine for California hey.

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: April 3, 2014, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                    Stack47,

                    One question for you. How come these so called 'better numbers' haven't won jackpots.

                    I've never heard a winner say they played 'better numbers', have you?

                    I was comparing the more frequently drawn numbers to the numbers not drawn in the last 50 drawings. And I can say for a fact the numbers not drawn didn't win a jackpot. 

                    "I've never heard a winner say they played 'better numbers', have you?"

                    I'm pretty sure the players using numbers meaningful to them, believe those numbers are better. When those two guys in WVA had multiple 5 + 0 winners, I bet they didn't say the five numbers they used were worse. "Because they believe those numbers are better" is the only reason I can think of why anyone would pick their own numbers.

                    Does it make more sense to play numbers you don't think will be drawn?

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: April 4, 2014, 2:34 am - IP Logged

                      I was comparing the more frequently drawn numbers to the numbers not drawn in the last 50 drawings. And I can say for a fact the numbers not drawn didn't win a jackpot. 

                      "I've never heard a winner say they played 'better numbers', have you?"

                      I'm pretty sure the players using numbers meaningful to them, believe those numbers are better. When those two guys in WVA had multiple 5 + 0 winners, I bet they didn't say the five numbers they used were worse. "Because they believe those numbers are better" is the only reason I can think of why anyone would pick their own numbers.

                      Does it make more sense to play numbers you don't think will be drawn?

                       "Because they believe those numbers are better" is the only reason I can think of why anyone would pick their own numbers.

                      I pick my own numbers not because I think they are better but because I can avoid combinations that have already won or came close to winning in previous drawings.  Also by picking my own combinations I avoid repeats of combinations of threes and larger thus getting better coverage with the few lines I play.

                      I've checked previous drawings of games I play and rarely seen combinations that repeated or came close to repeating or else I would play such combinations.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: April 4, 2014, 4:03 pm - IP Logged

                         "Because they believe those numbers are better" is the only reason I can think of why anyone would pick their own numbers.

                        I pick my own numbers not because I think they are better but because I can avoid combinations that have already won or came close to winning in previous drawings.  Also by picking my own combinations I avoid repeats of combinations of threes and larger thus getting better coverage with the few lines I play.

                        I've checked previous drawings of games I play and rarely seen combinations that repeated or came close to repeating or else I would play such combinations.

                        The question was "How come these so called 'better numbers' haven't won jackpots. I've never heard a winner say they played 'better numbers', have you?" but they never explained what they meant by "so called better numbers" because it should be obvious the most frequently drawn numbers were the "better numbers" compared to numbers not drawn. I can only assume when a lottery player picks and plays "their numbers" it's because they believe they are the best numbers.

                        "Also by picking my own combinations I avoid repeats of combinations of threes and larger thus getting better coverage with the few lines I play."

                        Brad Duke wheeled the most frequently drawn numbers and used similar filters and probably played over 500 lines. If there is a system that consistently wins 5/39 games, lotto, MM, or PB jackpots, it probably sorts out the best lines based on a criteria. Another possibility is using all the numbers in an abbreviated wheel and placing them into the best order.

                        There is a difference between playing what the player believes is the best five numbers and playing what you believe is the best lines. And a difference between both of them and the best order.


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                          Posted: April 4, 2014, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

                          Real good, if you can't counter facts refute them although you have no proof to back you up.

                          As for "crickets" odd that the person calling others 'crickets' is thge one that makes back to back posts, often quoting himself. What a stroker.

                          It all would be a little more entertaining if it wasn't so pathetic.

                          You're a moron dude, get over it. Even after many people on this site agreed with me and gave many examples, your brain is stil stuck in moron mode. How did you even keep a job in the casinos?

                            veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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                            Posted: April 4, 2014, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

                            You're a moron dude, get over it. Even after many people on this site agreed with me and gave many examples, your brain is stil stuck in moron mode. How did you even keep a job in the casinos?

                            No one's ever going to take away Coin Toss's good job's in the casino's.  If you don't believe me just ask the <snip>tail waitresses they will tell you its trueBig Grin

                            This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

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                              Marana AZ
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                              Posted: April 5, 2014, 1:11 am - IP Logged

                              A huge fallacy: Stats are keys to winning.

                              No. They are not. It's a random drawing. The only thing stats predict with any accuracy is past results. Any number can be drawn at any time. It doesn't matter if a number was drawn in 10 of the past 10 drawings or hasn't been drawn for 10 drawings. Either outcome is statistically valid in a random set and past drawings have no influence on future drawings except over the very, very long term and only in the sense that over the course of 175 million (PB) or 258 million (MM) drawings, most combinations will hit at least once.