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# Nonlinear regression to predict lotteries

Topic closed. 119 replies. Last post 2 years ago by lottoswe.

 Page 5 of 8
New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 1, 2014, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

I am back into the mathematics for myself, and leave the systems for a while. Pick 3 and 4 aren't added, there are enough tools around. One to four visitors a day, next to robots and a hacker from time to time. I delete their comments and put their IP online.

Serge can you do a pick 5 with two power numbers?

How about them cowboys!

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 2, 2014, 4:50 am - IP Logged

I have not added a pick 5 wheel, but you can use the MegaMillions wheel. Enter a 1 as bonus number and don't play that one.

Simple example:

KEYS 11 12
WHEEL NUMBERS 13 14 15 16 17

BONUS 1 but don't use

1. 10-11-12-13-14+01
2. 10-11-12-13-15+01
3. 10-11-12-13-16+01
4. 10-11-12-13-17+01
5. 10-11-12-14-15+01
6. 10-11-12-14-16+01
7. 10-11-12-14-17+01
8. 10-11-12-15-16+01
9. 10-11-12-15-17+01
10. 10-11-12-16-17+01
11. 10-11-13-14-15+01
12. 10-11-13-14-16+01
13. 10-11-13-14-17+01
14. 10-11-13-15-16+01
15. 10-11-13-15-17+01
16. 10-11-13-16-17+01
17. 10-11-14-15-16+01
18. 10-11-14-15-17+01
19. 10-11-14-16-17+01
20. 10-11-15-16-17+01

You can put any keys in the online form, the program will sort it out.

You can use the Pick 6 wheels too. Add number 99 for one position as number not to play.
Simple example:

1. 01-02-03-04-05-99
2. 01-02-03-04-06-99
3. 01-02-03-04-07-99
4. 01-02-03-04-08-99
5. 01-02-03-04-09-99
6. 01-02-03-05-06-99
7. 01-02-03-05-07-99
8. 01-02-03-05-08-99
9. 01-02-03-05-09-99
10. 01-02-03-06-07-99
11. 01-02-03-06-08-99
12. 01-02-03-06-09-99
13. 01-02-03-07-08-99
14. 01-02-03-07-09-99
15. 01-02-03-08-09-99
16. 01-02-04-05-06-99
17. 01-02-04-05-07-99
18. 01-02-04-05-08-99
19. 01-02-04-05-09-99
20. 01-02-04-06-07-99
21. 01-02-04-06-08-99
22. 01-02-04-06-09-99
23. 01-02-04-07-08-99
24. 01-02-04-07-09-99
25. 01-02-04-08-09-99
26. 01-02-05-06-07-99
27. 01-02-05-06-08-99
28. 01-02-05-06-09-99
29. 01-02-05-07-08-99
30. 01-02-05-07-09-99
31. 01-02-05-08-09-99
32. 01-02-06-07-08-99
33. 01-02-06-07-09-99
34. 01-02-06-08-09-99
35. 01-02-07-08-09-99

You have 8 numbers maximum for each position. 8*5=40 numbers maximum.
Using the help text you will find ideas on how to use the wheels.

Immediately use the numbers that you want to play!
Keys: 11 21 Wheel numbers: ...

1. 11-18-19-21-32-99
2. 11-18-19-21-33-99
3. 11-18-19-21-34-99
4. 11-18-19-21-38-99
5. 11-18-19-21-41-99
6. 11-18-21-32-33-99
7. 11-18-21-32-34-99
8. 11-18-21-32-38-99
9. 11-18-21-32-41-99
10. 11-18-21-33-34-99
11. 11-18-21-33-38-99
12. 11-18-21-33-41-99
13. 11-18-21-34-38-99
14. 11-18-21-34-41-99
15. 11-18-21-38-41-99
16. 11-19-21-32-33-99
17. 11-19-21-32-34-99
18. 11-19-21-32-38-99
19. 11-19-21-32-41-99
20. 11-19-21-33-34-99
21. 11-19-21-33-38-99
22. 11-19-21-33-41-99
23. 11-19-21-34-38-99
24. 11-19-21-34-41-99
25. 11-19-21-38-41-99
26. 11-21-32-33-34-99
27. 11-21-32-33-38-99
28. 11-21-32-33-41-99
29. 11-21-32-34-38-99
30. 11-21-32-34-41-99
31. 11-21-32-38-41-99
32. 11-21-33-34-38-99
33. 11-21-33-34-41-99
34. 11-21-33-38-41-99
35. 11-21-34-38-41-99
Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 2, 2014, 5:08 am - IP Logged

The same way you could do pick 1 2 3 4, just adding 99 98 97 96.

New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 2, 2014, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

The same way you could do pick 1 2 3 4, just adding 99 98 97 96.

I'll give it a try , thanks!

How about them cowboys!

New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 10, 2014, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

I'm trying them all out. Can you do  Power number 5 combination for pick 3?

Thanks.

How about them cowboys!

New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 22, 2014, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

I have not added a pick 5 wheel, but you can use the MegaMillions wheel. Enter a 1 as bonus number and don't play that one.

Simple example:

KEYS 11 12
WHEEL NUMBERS 13 14 15 16 17

BONUS 1 but don't use

1. 10-11-12-13-14+01
2. 10-11-12-13-15+01
3. 10-11-12-13-16+01
4. 10-11-12-13-17+01
5. 10-11-12-14-15+01
6. 10-11-12-14-16+01
7. 10-11-12-14-17+01
8. 10-11-12-15-16+01
9. 10-11-12-15-17+01
10. 10-11-12-16-17+01
11. 10-11-13-14-15+01
12. 10-11-13-14-16+01
13. 10-11-13-14-17+01
14. 10-11-13-15-16+01
15. 10-11-13-15-17+01
16. 10-11-13-16-17+01
17. 10-11-14-15-16+01
18. 10-11-14-15-17+01
19. 10-11-14-16-17+01
20. 10-11-15-16-17+01

You can put any keys in the online form, the program will sort it out.

You can use the Pick 6 wheels too. Add number 99 for one position as number not to play.
Simple example:

1. 01-02-03-04-05-99
2. 01-02-03-04-06-99
3. 01-02-03-04-07-99
4. 01-02-03-04-08-99
5. 01-02-03-04-09-99
6. 01-02-03-05-06-99
7. 01-02-03-05-07-99
8. 01-02-03-05-08-99
9. 01-02-03-05-09-99
10. 01-02-03-06-07-99
11. 01-02-03-06-08-99
12. 01-02-03-06-09-99
13. 01-02-03-07-08-99
14. 01-02-03-07-09-99
15. 01-02-03-08-09-99
16. 01-02-04-05-06-99
17. 01-02-04-05-07-99
18. 01-02-04-05-08-99
19. 01-02-04-05-09-99
20. 01-02-04-06-07-99
21. 01-02-04-06-08-99
22. 01-02-04-06-09-99
23. 01-02-04-07-08-99
24. 01-02-04-07-09-99
25. 01-02-04-08-09-99
26. 01-02-05-06-07-99
27. 01-02-05-06-08-99
28. 01-02-05-06-09-99
29. 01-02-05-07-08-99
30. 01-02-05-07-09-99
31. 01-02-05-08-09-99
32. 01-02-06-07-08-99
33. 01-02-06-07-09-99
34. 01-02-06-08-09-99
35. 01-02-07-08-09-99

You have 8 numbers maximum for each position. 8*5=40 numbers maximum.
Using the help text you will find ideas on how to use the wheels.

Immediately use the numbers that you want to play!
Keys: 11 21 Wheel numbers: ...

1. 11-18-19-21-32-99
2. 11-18-19-21-33-99
3. 11-18-19-21-34-99
4. 11-18-19-21-38-99
5. 11-18-19-21-41-99
6. 11-18-21-32-33-99
7. 11-18-21-32-34-99
8. 11-18-21-32-38-99
9. 11-18-21-32-41-99
10. 11-18-21-33-34-99
11. 11-18-21-33-38-99
12. 11-18-21-33-41-99
13. 11-18-21-34-38-99
14. 11-18-21-34-41-99
15. 11-18-21-38-41-99
16. 11-19-21-32-33-99
17. 11-19-21-32-34-99
18. 11-19-21-32-38-99
19. 11-19-21-32-41-99
20. 11-19-21-33-34-99
21. 11-19-21-33-38-99
22. 11-19-21-33-41-99
23. 11-19-21-34-38-99
24. 11-19-21-34-41-99
25. 11-19-21-38-41-99
26. 11-21-32-33-34-99
27. 11-21-32-33-38-99
28. 11-21-32-33-41-99
29. 11-21-32-34-38-99
30. 11-21-32-34-41-99
31. 11-21-32-38-41-99
32. 11-21-33-34-38-99
33. 11-21-33-34-41-99
34. 11-21-33-38-41-99
35. 11-21-34-38-41-99

How about them cowboys!

New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 26, 2014, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

1-2-3-4-6-8
1-2-3-4-7-9
1-2-3-5-6-9
1-2-3-5-7-8

I might add: 1-2-4-5-6-7 but am not into covering.
If you do so, you would obtain a 4 if 6 condition.

I'm trying the diverse system today,  thanks!

How about them cowboys!

Tahiti- Polynesia
Tuvalu
Member #34524
March 4, 2006
54 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 1, 2014, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

Please, I posted this subject about nonlinear regression. Please, open your own thread for a different subject.

Bob

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 2, 2014, 10:37 am - IP Logged

Hi destinycreation,

I'll try to keep it simple.

Linear or nonlinear regression is a mathematic tool to predict time series, i.e a serie of numbers,in many domains as meteorology, economy,etc... Lotto numbers are a time series but scientists think that lottery cannot be forecasted with regression.

If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph. Regression consists in finding the formula of the graph that can represent your numbers, the closest possible. We say that we model the curb. Having the formula for your lotto, you can then use it to predict the future, if the formula is simple. If not prediction will be difficult.

There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small. That is the case when you play a lotto say with numbers between 1 and 10. You can use linear regression in that case. With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

This matter is difficult for a non-mathematician to explain. I suggest that you visit the many sites on the web where you'll grasp more easily the subject. Looking at the graphs will help.

There is a lot more to say about regression but I cannot develop more for now. I hope that my explanations will help.

I hope somebody with mathematical background will come and explain better than I.

Bob

If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph.

If you make a graph, you need values, names and such. You didn't say x nor y. Basically you said nothing at all.

There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small.

You don't say what you mean by time series. What are the series, the values, the names ... ?

Variations and curb.

Variation on what? Curb on what?

Looking at the graphs will help.

You showed no graph.

I hope that my explanations will help.

No explanations were given, your an enigma.

Maybe you want to start a thread about wheels?

United Kingdom
Member #162012
December 19, 2014
23 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 21, 2014, 5:41 am - IP Logged

Hi destinycreation,

I'll try to keep it simple.

Linear or nonlinear regression is a mathematic tool to predict time series, i.e a serie of numbers,in many domains as meteorology, economy,etc... Lotto numbers are a time series but scientists think that lottery cannot be forecasted with regression.

If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph. Regression consists in finding the formula of the graph that can represent your numbers, the closest possible. We say that we model the curb. Having the formula for your lotto, you can then use it to predict the future, if the formula is simple. If not prediction will be difficult.

There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small. That is the case when you play a lotto say with numbers between 1 and 10. You can use linear regression in that case. With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

This matter is difficult for a non-mathematician to explain. I suggest that you visit the many sites on the web where you'll grasp more easily the subject. Looking at the graphs will help.

There is a lot more to say about regression but I cannot develop more for now. I hope that my explanations will help.

I hope somebody with mathematical background will come and explain better than I.

Bob

With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

Or you can use a model to make for example 10 groups (you can use FFT for equalice numbers in groups). The model is not valid if you obtain one group with 30 numbers and others groups with 2 or 3 numbers. Here is a result example of good theorical model:

• group 1: 12 numbers
• group 2: 9 numbers
• group 3: 8 numbers
• group 4: 7 numbers
• group 5: 5 numbers
• group 6: 5 numbers
• group 7: 4 numbers

Then you can use LinReg to this groups; if the LinReg function show a group to predict, then you know the numbers of this group.

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3960 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 21, 2014, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

Hi all

Here are a few pics that shows linear regression.  The first pic shows the program for which I am using

regression to predict the next value for Rogue positions A to J for my 5-39 game.  Each rogue position

has 4 possible choices, 0-1-2-3 so each value is expected to show on average around 1 of every 4 plays.

The next pic shows a scatter plot which shows the number of shows for each value over 200 games.

The next pic shows the value plotted one at a time

The black line here shows the expected and as you can see the actual values varies over the plot.  This graph

is very small and one pixel change up or down indicates one value change which is hard for us to see here but

easy for the program.  Next the program will draw many new straight lines to find the one that runs through

the exact center of as many as possible.   There are a number of different methods used to plot the next x-y

position for the value to hit or to assign a probability for each value showing in the next draw.  Sometimes if

there are too few values the plots will show that each value has a very good chance of hitting where as stated

above if too many then we have to switch to non-linear regression.  These values are very linear as you can see

from the graphs.  Hope this helps.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

United Kingdom
Member #162012
December 19, 2014
23 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 22, 2014, 3:38 am - IP Logged

Have you tried to also display the numbers that did not go into the draw?

How do you find that your model is valid?

What percentage of successful numbers over the last 100 draws?

What percentage of false positive over the past 100 games?

What is the model performance in the last 100 draws?

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19813 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 22, 2014, 3:59 am - IP Logged

I've been following the predictions of bob790 who started this thread which is an indicator for me of how seriously I should take anything posted in this thread.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United Kingdom
Member #162012
December 19, 2014
23 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 22, 2014, 4:13 am - IP Logged

I've been following the predictions of bob790 who started this thread which is an indicator for me of how seriously I should take anything posted in this thread.

`My previous post was aimed atRL- RANDOMLOGIC .bob790 could also indicate the basic data of % correct and economic ROI or overall performance of the model / system.You may indicate too.Show this data means nothing for the user indicates ...`

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3960 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 22, 2014, 5:38 am - IP Logged

Have you tried to also display the numbers that did not go into the draw?

How do you find that your model is valid?

What percentage of successful numbers over the last 100 draws?

What percentage of false positive over the past 100 games?

What is the model performance in the last 100 draws?

The regression tool is under development and as such no real test have been ran.  The slope of the regression

line is based on the expected shows.  The data points show the difference between the expected and the actual.

So far I am not seeing much of a bias for one value over another but It's still in the early stages.  In the past I have

not had much success using regression for prediction.  I thought I would give it another try using it for this tool as

it choices are limited to 0 to 3 for each rogue position.  The main program works great in what it does but unless

I can develop a means to predict the values then it's all for nothing.  When I build a tool like this I code it so that I

can test many prediction methods against the data by just copy and pasting the prediction code into the program.

Below are the number of rogue positions that need to be set for the given output, If I can come up with a good

prediction tool it will do very well.

Setting 10 rogue values = 1 line.

Setting   9 rogue values = 3 lines

Setting   8 rogue values = 10 lines

Setting   7 rogue values = 36 lines

Setting   6 rogue values = 142 lines

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

 Page 5 of 8