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Nonlinear regression to predict lotteries

Topic closed. 119 replies. Last post 2 years ago by lottoswe.

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lakerben's avatar - spherewall
New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11114 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 1, 2014, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

I am back into the mathematics for myself, and leave the systems for a while. Pick 3 and 4 aren't added, there are enough tools around. One to four visitors a day, next to robots and a hacker from time to time. I delete their comments and put their IP online.

Serge can you do a pick 5 with two power numbers?

Idea

How about them cowboys!

 

 

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    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
    4035 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: November 2, 2014, 4:50 am - IP Logged

    I have not added a pick 5 wheel, but you can use the MegaMillions wheel. Enter a 1 as bonus number and don't play that one.

    Simple example:

    KEYS 11 12
    WHEEL NUMBERS 13 14 15 16 17

    BONUS 1 but don't use 

    1. 10-11-12-13-14+01
    2. 10-11-12-13-15+01
    3. 10-11-12-13-16+01
    4. 10-11-12-13-17+01
    5. 10-11-12-14-15+01
    6. 10-11-12-14-16+01
    7. 10-11-12-14-17+01
    8. 10-11-12-15-16+01
    9. 10-11-12-15-17+01
    10. 10-11-12-16-17+01
    11. 10-11-13-14-15+01
    12. 10-11-13-14-16+01
    13. 10-11-13-14-17+01
    14. 10-11-13-15-16+01
    15. 10-11-13-15-17+01
    16. 10-11-13-16-17+01
    17. 10-11-14-15-16+01
    18. 10-11-14-15-17+01
    19. 10-11-14-16-17+01
    20. 10-11-15-16-17+01

    You can put any keys in the online form, the program will sort it out.

    You can use the Pick 6 wheels too. Add number 99 for one position as number not to play.
    Simple example:

    1. 01-02-03-04-05-99
    2. 01-02-03-04-06-99
    3. 01-02-03-04-07-99
    4. 01-02-03-04-08-99
    5. 01-02-03-04-09-99
    6. 01-02-03-05-06-99
    7. 01-02-03-05-07-99
    8. 01-02-03-05-08-99
    9. 01-02-03-05-09-99
    10. 01-02-03-06-07-99
    11. 01-02-03-06-08-99
    12. 01-02-03-06-09-99
    13. 01-02-03-07-08-99
    14. 01-02-03-07-09-99
    15. 01-02-03-08-09-99
    16. 01-02-04-05-06-99
    17. 01-02-04-05-07-99
    18. 01-02-04-05-08-99
    19. 01-02-04-05-09-99
    20. 01-02-04-06-07-99
    21. 01-02-04-06-08-99
    22. 01-02-04-06-09-99
    23. 01-02-04-07-08-99
    24. 01-02-04-07-09-99
    25. 01-02-04-08-09-99
    26. 01-02-05-06-07-99
    27. 01-02-05-06-08-99
    28. 01-02-05-06-09-99
    29. 01-02-05-07-08-99
    30. 01-02-05-07-09-99
    31. 01-02-05-08-09-99
    32. 01-02-06-07-08-99
    33. 01-02-06-07-09-99
    34. 01-02-06-08-09-99
    35. 01-02-07-08-09-99

    You have 8 numbers maximum for each position. 8*5=40 numbers maximum.
    Using the help text you will find ideas on how to use the wheels.

    Immediately use the numbers that you want to play!
    Keys: 11 21 Wheel numbers: ...

    1. 11-18-19-21-32-99
    2. 11-18-19-21-33-99
    3. 11-18-19-21-34-99
    4. 11-18-19-21-38-99
    5. 11-18-19-21-41-99
    6. 11-18-21-32-33-99
    7. 11-18-21-32-34-99
    8. 11-18-21-32-38-99
    9. 11-18-21-32-41-99
    10. 11-18-21-33-34-99
    11. 11-18-21-33-38-99
    12. 11-18-21-33-41-99
    13. 11-18-21-34-38-99
    14. 11-18-21-34-41-99
    15. 11-18-21-38-41-99
    16. 11-19-21-32-33-99
    17. 11-19-21-32-34-99
    18. 11-19-21-32-38-99
    19. 11-19-21-32-41-99
    20. 11-19-21-33-34-99
    21. 11-19-21-33-38-99
    22. 11-19-21-33-41-99
    23. 11-19-21-34-38-99
    24. 11-19-21-34-41-99
    25. 11-19-21-38-41-99
    26. 11-21-32-33-34-99
    27. 11-21-32-33-38-99
    28. 11-21-32-33-41-99
    29. 11-21-32-34-38-99
    30. 11-21-32-34-41-99
    31. 11-21-32-38-41-99
    32. 11-21-33-34-38-99
    33. 11-21-33-34-41-99
    34. 11-21-33-38-41-99
    35. 11-21-34-38-41-99
      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
      Economy class
      Belgium
      Member #123700
      February 27, 2012
      4035 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 2, 2014, 5:08 am - IP Logged

      The same way you could do pick 1 2 3 4, just adding 99 98 97 96.

        lakerben's avatar - spherewall
        New Mexico
        United States
        Member #86099
        January 29, 2010
        11114 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: November 2, 2014, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

        The same way you could do pick 1 2 3 4, just adding 99 98 97 96.

        I'll give it a try , thanks!

        Lurking

        How about them cowboys!

         

         

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          lakerben's avatar - spherewall
          New Mexico
          United States
          Member #86099
          January 29, 2010
          11114 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: November 10, 2014, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

          I'm trying them all out. Can you do  Power number 5 combination for pick 3?

          Thanks.

          Coffee

          How about them cowboys!

           

           

          US Flag

            lakerben's avatar - spherewall
            New Mexico
            United States
            Member #86099
            January 29, 2010
            11114 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: November 22, 2014, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

            I have not added a pick 5 wheel, but you can use the MegaMillions wheel. Enter a 1 as bonus number and don't play that one.

            Simple example:

            KEYS 11 12
            WHEEL NUMBERS 13 14 15 16 17

            BONUS 1 but don't use 

            1. 10-11-12-13-14+01
            2. 10-11-12-13-15+01
            3. 10-11-12-13-16+01
            4. 10-11-12-13-17+01
            5. 10-11-12-14-15+01
            6. 10-11-12-14-16+01
            7. 10-11-12-14-17+01
            8. 10-11-12-15-16+01
            9. 10-11-12-15-17+01
            10. 10-11-12-16-17+01
            11. 10-11-13-14-15+01
            12. 10-11-13-14-16+01
            13. 10-11-13-14-17+01
            14. 10-11-13-15-16+01
            15. 10-11-13-15-17+01
            16. 10-11-13-16-17+01
            17. 10-11-14-15-16+01
            18. 10-11-14-15-17+01
            19. 10-11-14-16-17+01
            20. 10-11-15-16-17+01

            You can put any keys in the online form, the program will sort it out.

            You can use the Pick 6 wheels too. Add number 99 for one position as number not to play.
            Simple example:

            1. 01-02-03-04-05-99
            2. 01-02-03-04-06-99
            3. 01-02-03-04-07-99
            4. 01-02-03-04-08-99
            5. 01-02-03-04-09-99
            6. 01-02-03-05-06-99
            7. 01-02-03-05-07-99
            8. 01-02-03-05-08-99
            9. 01-02-03-05-09-99
            10. 01-02-03-06-07-99
            11. 01-02-03-06-08-99
            12. 01-02-03-06-09-99
            13. 01-02-03-07-08-99
            14. 01-02-03-07-09-99
            15. 01-02-03-08-09-99
            16. 01-02-04-05-06-99
            17. 01-02-04-05-07-99
            18. 01-02-04-05-08-99
            19. 01-02-04-05-09-99
            20. 01-02-04-06-07-99
            21. 01-02-04-06-08-99
            22. 01-02-04-06-09-99
            23. 01-02-04-07-08-99
            24. 01-02-04-07-09-99
            25. 01-02-04-08-09-99
            26. 01-02-05-06-07-99
            27. 01-02-05-06-08-99
            28. 01-02-05-06-09-99
            29. 01-02-05-07-08-99
            30. 01-02-05-07-09-99
            31. 01-02-05-08-09-99
            32. 01-02-06-07-08-99
            33. 01-02-06-07-09-99
            34. 01-02-06-08-09-99
            35. 01-02-07-08-09-99

            You have 8 numbers maximum for each position. 8*5=40 numbers maximum.
            Using the help text you will find ideas on how to use the wheels.

            Immediately use the numbers that you want to play!
            Keys: 11 21 Wheel numbers: ...

            1. 11-18-19-21-32-99
            2. 11-18-19-21-33-99
            3. 11-18-19-21-34-99
            4. 11-18-19-21-38-99
            5. 11-18-19-21-41-99
            6. 11-18-21-32-33-99
            7. 11-18-21-32-34-99
            8. 11-18-21-32-38-99
            9. 11-18-21-32-41-99
            10. 11-18-21-33-34-99
            11. 11-18-21-33-38-99
            12. 11-18-21-33-41-99
            13. 11-18-21-34-38-99
            14. 11-18-21-34-41-99
            15. 11-18-21-38-41-99
            16. 11-19-21-32-33-99
            17. 11-19-21-32-34-99
            18. 11-19-21-32-38-99
            19. 11-19-21-32-41-99
            20. 11-19-21-33-34-99
            21. 11-19-21-33-38-99
            22. 11-19-21-33-41-99
            23. 11-19-21-34-38-99
            24. 11-19-21-34-41-99
            25. 11-19-21-38-41-99
            26. 11-21-32-33-34-99
            27. 11-21-32-33-38-99
            28. 11-21-32-33-41-99
            29. 11-21-32-34-38-99
            30. 11-21-32-34-41-99
            31. 11-21-32-38-41-99
            32. 11-21-33-34-38-99
            33. 11-21-33-34-41-99
            34. 11-21-33-38-41-99
            35. 11-21-34-38-41-99

            I Agree!

            How about them cowboys!

             

             

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              lakerben's avatar - spherewall
              New Mexico
              United States
              Member #86099
              January 29, 2010
              11114 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: November 26, 2014, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

              1-2-3-4-6-8
              1-2-3-4-7-9
              1-2-3-5-6-9
              1-2-3-5-7-8

              I might add: 1-2-4-5-6-7 but am not into covering.
              If you do so, you would obtain a 4 if 6 condition.

              I'm trying the diverse system today,  thanks!

              Sad Cheers

              How about them cowboys!

               

               

              US Flag

                Avatar
                Tahiti- Polynesia
                Tuvalu
                Member #34524
                March 4, 2006
                54 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 1, 2014, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

                Please, I posted this subject about nonlinear regression. Please, open your own thread for a different subject.

                 

                Bob

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                  Economy class
                  Belgium
                  Member #123700
                  February 27, 2012
                  4035 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 2, 2014, 10:37 am - IP Logged

                  Hi destinycreation,

                  I'll try to keep it simple. 

                  Linear or nonlinear regression is a mathematic tool to predict time series, i.e a serie of numbers,in many domains as meteorology, economy,etc... Lotto numbers are a time series but scientists think that lottery cannot be forecasted with regression.

                  If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph. Regression consists in finding the formula of the graph that can represent your numbers, the closest possible. We say that we model the curb. Having the formula for your lotto, you can then use it to predict the future, if the formula is simple. If not prediction will be difficult.

                  There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small. That is the case when you play a lotto say with numbers between 1 and 10. You can use linear regression in that case. With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

                  This matter is difficult for a non-mathematician to explain. I suggest that you visit the many sites on the web where you'll grasp more easily the subject. Looking at the graphs will help.

                  There is a lot more to say about regression but I cannot develop more for now. I hope that my explanations will help.

                  I hope somebody with mathematical background will come and explain better than I.

                   

                  Bob

                  If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph.

                  If you make a graph, you need values, names and such. You didn't say x nor y. Basically you said nothing at all.

                  There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small.

                  You don't say what you mean by time series. What are the series, the values, the names ... ?

                  Variations and curb.

                  Variation on what? Curb on what?

                  Looking at the graphs will help.

                  You showed no graph.

                  I hope that my explanations will help.

                  No explanations were given, your an enigma.

                  Maybe you want to start a thread about wheels?


                    United Kingdom
                    Member #162012
                    December 19, 2014
                    23 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 21, 2014, 5:41 am - IP Logged

                    Hi destinycreation,

                    I'll try to keep it simple. 

                    Linear or nonlinear regression is a mathematic tool to predict time series, i.e a serie of numbers,in many domains as meteorology, economy,etc... Lotto numbers are a time series but scientists think that lottery cannot be forecasted with regression.

                    If you create a graph with your lottery numbers, you'll see a sawtooth like graph. Regression consists in finding the formula of the graph that can represent your numbers, the closest possible. We say that we model the curb. Having the formula for your lotto, you can then use it to predict the future, if the formula is simple. If not prediction will be difficult.

                    There are time series which can fit relatively easily when variations between numbers are small. That is the case when you play a lotto say with numbers between 1 and 10. You can use linear regression in that case. With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

                    This matter is difficult for a non-mathematician to explain. I suggest that you visit the many sites on the web where you'll grasp more easily the subject. Looking at the graphs will help.

                    There is a lot more to say about regression but I cannot develop more for now. I hope that my explanations will help.

                    I hope somebody with mathematical background will come and explain better than I.

                     

                    Bob

                    With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

                    Or you can use a model to make for example 10 groups (you can use FFT for equalice numbers in groups). The model is not valid if you obtain one group with 30 numbers and others groups with 2 or 3 numbers. Here is a result example of good theorical model:

                    • group 1: 12 numbers
                    • group 2: 9 numbers
                    • group 3: 8 numbers
                    • group 4: 7 numbers
                    • group 5: 5 numbers
                    • group 6: 5 numbers
                    • group 7: 4 numbers

                    Then you can use LinReg to this groups; if the LinReg function show a group to predict, then you know the numbers of this group.

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                      United States
                      Member #59354
                      March 13, 2008
                      3960 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 21, 2014, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

                      Hi all

                      Here are a few pics that shows linear regression.  The first pic shows the program for which I am using

                      regression to predict the next value for Rogue positions A to J for my 5-39 game.  Each rogue position

                      has 4 possible choices, 0-1-2-3 so each value is expected to show on average around 1 of every 4 plays.

                      reges-1

                      The next pic shows a scatter plot which shows the number of shows for each value over 200 games.

                      regres-2

                       

                      The next pic shows the value plotted one at a time

                      regres-3

                       

                      The black line here shows the expected and as you can see the actual values varies over the plot.  This graph

                      is very small and one pixel change up or down indicates one value change which is hard for us to see here but

                      easy for the program.  Next the program will draw many new straight lines to find the one that runs through 

                      the exact center of as many as possible.   There are a number of different methods used to plot the next x-y

                      position for the value to hit or to assign a probability for each value showing in the next draw.  Sometimes if

                      there are too few values the plots will show that each value has a very good chance of hitting where as stated

                      above if too many then we have to switch to non-linear regression.  These values are very linear as you can see

                      from the graphs.  Hope this helps.

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


                        United Kingdom
                        Member #162012
                        December 19, 2014
                        23 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: December 22, 2014, 3:38 am - IP Logged

                        Have you tried to also display the numbers that did not go into the draw?

                        How do you find that your model is valid?

                        What percentage of successful numbers over the last 100 draws?

                        What percentage of false positive over the past 100 games?

                        What is the model performance in the last 100 draws?

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19813 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: December 22, 2014, 3:59 am - IP Logged

                          I've been following the predictions of bob790 who started this thread which is an indicator for me of how seriously I should take anything posted in this thread.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       


                            United Kingdom
                            Member #162012
                            December 19, 2014
                            23 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 22, 2014, 4:13 am - IP Logged

                            I've been following the predictions of bob790 who started this thread which is an indicator for me of how seriously I should take anything posted in this thread.

                            My previous post was aimed atRL- RANDOMLOGIC .bob790 could also indicate the basic data of % correct and economic ROI or overall performance of the model / system.You may indicate too.Show this data means nothing for the user indicates ...
                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
                              Member #59354
                              March 13, 2008
                              3960 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 22, 2014, 5:38 am - IP Logged

                              Have you tried to also display the numbers that did not go into the draw?

                              How do you find that your model is valid?

                              What percentage of successful numbers over the last 100 draws?

                              What percentage of false positive over the past 100 games?

                              What is the model performance in the last 100 draws?

                              The regression tool is under development and as such no real test have been ran.  The slope of the regression

                              line is based on the expected shows.  The data points show the difference between the expected and the actual. 

                              So far I am not seeing much of a bias for one value over another but It's still in the early stages.  In the past I have

                              not had much success using regression for prediction.  I thought I would give it another try using it for this tool as

                              it choices are limited to 0 to 3 for each rogue position.  The main program works great in what it does but unless

                              I can develop a means to predict the values then it's all for nothing.  When I build a tool like this I code it so that I

                              can test many prediction methods against the data by just copy and pasting the prediction code into the program.

                              Below are the number of rogue positions that need to be set for the given output, If I can come up with a good

                              prediction tool it will do very well. 

                               

                               Setting 10 rogue values = 1 line.   

                               Setting   9 rogue values = 3 lines

                               Setting   8 rogue values = 10 lines

                               Setting   7 rogue values = 36 lines

                               Setting   6 rogue values = 142 lines 

                               

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020