Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 4, 2016, 1:15 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Nonlinear regression to predict lotteries

Topic closed. 119 replies. Last post 2 years ago by lottoswe.

Page 7 of 8
53
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Tahiti- Polynesia
Tuvalu
Member #34524
March 4, 2006
54 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 6, 2015, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

 

For the last drawing Euromillions - Tuesday 6th January 2015 : 14 20 30 38 49

I didn't played but my test give : 49 4 14 20 36 (first 5 numbers predicted on sorted history file).

 

Bob


    United Kingdom
    Member #162012
    December 19, 2014
    23 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 7, 2015, 8:02 am - IP Logged

    Hi,

    Are those statistics calculated on real tickets you bought, or they calculated on a theorical basis? How do you get them?

    I don't calculate the statistics of my results. If "Sweepstakes" mean "ready made tickets", then I'm sure that my results are far better than random tickets sold by Euromillions. 

    5/15 happen 1, or more rarely, 2 times a year. Drawings happen 2 times a week, that's 104 times a year. So, success percentage is closer to 1 or 2%. 6% is huge.

     

    Bob

    Are those statistics calculated on real tickets you bought, or they calculated on a theorical basis?

    It is the theoretical performance of my system. My cash in 2014 ROI was a + 5% of the total profit of the money invested (after paying the fees of 21% of profit) . Two years ago in Spain there were no gains taxes on lottery winnings , so it was much more profitable.

    Explain the concepts :
    Profit: Gross cash prize you win by hitting a draw.
    Benefit : Budget Amount after paying taxes on the prize and then amortizing payment of investment.

    How do you get them?

    Once I have developed my calculation model, I submit to several performance tests consisting of several modes of play, on samples of 100 drawings (100 random draws, and from the draw 400 to 499 and the last 100 draws). The results of these bursts of evidence, recorded in database tables to check the deviation between what actually came out and what the system predicted.

    When I indicate for example that the skill of 5 numbers is 0-6 %, want to express that in the performance tests can give results from 0% (0 sweepstakes) where they got the 5 numbers, up to a maximum (and the best) 6% (6 draws) where the system itself matched all five numbers in the previous test.

    Usually the pool of numbers is between 15 and 20 numbers, so then total combinations may vary in each draw.

     

    I don't calculate the statistics of my results.

    Measure -> Control -> Management -> Continual Improvement

    I have a log of my systems/models with a snapshot (I use subversion) and the %performance and other economics data. I have implemented transversely business processes to monetize the system and methods/protocols scientific to control/improvement; If these steps are not followed is very difficult to have all these matrices testing results on the head !!!

    If "Sweepstakes" mean "ready made tickets", then I'm sure that my results are far better than random tickets sold by Euromillions.

    I completely agree ! I also bought 10 tickets sweepstakes machine to perform comparisons with my bets . For example , if I make 10 bets EuroMillions (20 € ) , I also do 10 bets ( another 20 € ) automatically by the vending machine. After 100 draws, I have no doubt that applying scientific method has competitive advantage. 

    I have 3 levels to operate my system, and you can see it en this post (my old username anubina):
    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/279051/3894183


    5/15 happen 1, or more rarely, 2 times a year. Drawings happen 2 times a week, that's 104 times a year. So, success percentage is closer to 1 or 2%. 6% is huge.

    6% is the best case scenario and investment in such systems is highly risky and economically inadvisable (I only gained 5% limpid), so it is a very high risk to only 5%.

    Although consistency try to improve profit by not paying rates of 21% (3,000€ prizes lower pay no fees)...

      Avatar
      Tahiti- Polynesia
      Tuvalu
      Member #34524
      March 4, 2006
      54 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 7, 2015, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

      Are those statistics calculated on real tickets you bought, or they calculated on a theorical basis?

      It is the theoretical performance of my system. My cash in 2014 ROI was a + 5% of the total profit of the money invested (after paying the fees of 21% of profit) . Two years ago in Spain there were no gains taxes on lottery winnings , so it was much more profitable.

      Explain the concepts :
      Profit: Gross cash prize you win by hitting a draw.
      Benefit : Budget Amount after paying taxes on the prize and then amortizing payment of investment.

      How do you get them?

      Once I have developed my calculation model, I submit to several performance tests consisting of several modes of play, on samples of 100 drawings (100 random draws, and from the draw 400 to 499 and the last 100 draws). The results of these bursts of evidence, recorded in database tables to check the deviation between what actually came out and what the system predicted.

      When I indicate for example that the skill of 5 numbers is 0-6 %, want to express that in the performance tests can give results from 0% (0 sweepstakes) where they got the 5 numbers, up to a maximum (and the best) 6% (6 draws) where the system itself matched all five numbers in the previous test.

      Usually the pool of numbers is between 15 and 20 numbers, so then total combinations may vary in each draw.

       

      I don't calculate the statistics of my results.

      Measure -> Control -> Management -> Continual Improvement

      I have a log of my systems/models with a snapshot (I use subversion) and the %performance and other economics data. I have implemented transversely business processes to monetize the system and methods/protocols scientific to control/improvement; If these steps are not followed is very difficult to have all these matrices testing results on the head !!!

      If "Sweepstakes" mean "ready made tickets", then I'm sure that my results are far better than random tickets sold by Euromillions.

      I completely agree ! I also bought 10 tickets sweepstakes machine to perform comparisons with my bets . For example , if I make 10 bets EuroMillions (20 € ) , I also do 10 bets ( another 20 € ) automatically by the vending machine. After 100 draws, I have no doubt that applying scientific method has competitive advantage. 

      I have 3 levels to operate my system, and you can see it en this post (my old username anubina):
      http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/279051/3894183


      5/15 happen 1, or more rarely, 2 times a year. Drawings happen 2 times a week, that's 104 times a year. So, success percentage is closer to 1 or 2%. 6% is huge.

      6% is the best case scenario and investment in such systems is highly risky and economically inadvisable (I only gained 5% limpid), so it is a very high risk to only 5%.

      Although consistency try to improve profit by not paying rates of 21% (3,000€ prizes lower pay no fees)...

      Hi,

      Thanks for your explanations.

       

      Bob

        lakerben's avatar - spherewall
        New Mexico
        United States
        Member #86099
        January 29, 2010
        11116 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 12, 2015, 2:04 pm - IP Logged

        Hi all

        Here are a few pics that shows linear regression.  The first pic shows the program for which I am using

        regression to predict the next value for Rogue positions A to J for my 5-39 game.  Each rogue position

        has 4 possible choices, 0-1-2-3 so each value is expected to show on average around 1 of every 4 plays.

        reges-1

        The next pic shows a scatter plot which shows the number of shows for each value over 200 games.

        regres-2

         

        The next pic shows the value plotted one at a time

        regres-3

         

        The black line here shows the expected and as you can see the actual values varies over the plot.  This graph

        is very small and one pixel change up or down indicates one value change which is hard for us to see here but

        easy for the program.  Next the program will draw many new straight lines to find the one that runs through 

        the exact center of as many as possible.   There are a number of different methods used to plot the next x-y

        position for the value to hit or to assign a probability for each value showing in the next draw.  Sometimes if

        there are too few values the plots will show that each value has a very good chance of hitting where as stated

        above if too many then we have to switch to non-linear regression.  These values are very linear as you can see

        from the graphs.  Hope this helps.

        RL

        Wow!

        Are you going to upload this?

        Thumbs Up

        How about them cowboys!

         

         

        US Flag

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3962 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 13, 2015, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

          lakerben

          For now I have to say no, the program is still under development but so far it's proving to be the best

          I have ever written.  I have deleted all my older stuff from my computer.  I have a daily game version

          that operates the same way and it will reduce a P-4 to 3 lines with 6 rogues.  Each rogue value has a

          range of 0 to 3 and it outputs straight hits.  I am in the process of testing all my old predictions tools

          and analysis stuff to see what I can find that helps pin down the rogue values.  P-3 can be reduced to

          5 lines with 4 rogue values or 2 lines if 5 rogues are set.   The hard part right now is trying to decide 

          which game to work on, number games or daily games,  both are really tempting.   These programs

          don't need extra filtering which was the motive behind them.  Anyway, thanks for your interest and 

          maybe at some point in the future I will release it.   I kind of overbuilt these programs as they have

          a number of hidden options, wheels etc.. that give the user many ways to generate the lines and set

          the rogue values..   

           

          Pic of P-4 setup using 6 values.

          rogue-dg

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            Avatar
            Auckland
            New Zealand
            Member #2247
            September 4, 2003
            33 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 14, 2015, 12:59 am - IP Logged

            dr san

            I am kind of excited about this new program, Setting 10 rogue values will produce a 5of5 on one line

            as compared to setting DMP's 10 digit filters to single values which produced 45 lines in last nights

            game.   Most of the digit filters will range around 0 to 3 for most games so in a heads up comparison

            the new program beats it  hand's down.  You can also see in the pic below that using the digit filters

            in DMP that there were 24 non-prize paying lines.  If I set the new program to generate using just 5

            rogue values it produces 563 lines and every line will at least break even.  It's a very nice reduction

            tool and I hope I can build a nice predictor for it.   Anyway, only time will tell.

            RL 

             

             

            dmp-5

             

            rogue sm5

            Hi RL,

            Can you explain more about a rouge value to a non-programmer?

            http://bryntegict.co.uk/resources/computing/theteacher/newalevel/cp1_2_3.htm

            spot9

              watch out's avatar - behold
              Georgia
              United States
              Member #129908
              July 1, 2012
              200 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 14, 2015, 1:09 am - IP Logged

              lakerben

              For now I have to say no, the program is still under development but so far it's proving to be the best

              I have ever written.  I have deleted all my older stuff from my computer.  I have a daily game version

              that operates the same way and it will reduce a P-4 to 3 lines with 6 rogues.  Each rogue value has a

              range of 0 to 3 and it outputs straight hits.  I am in the process of testing all my old predictions tools

              and analysis stuff to see what I can find that helps pin down the rogue values.  P-3 can be reduced to

              5 lines with 4 rogue values or 2 lines if 5 rogues are set.   The hard part right now is trying to decide 

              which game to work on, number games or daily games,  both are really tempting.   These programs

              don't need extra filtering which was the motive behind them.  Anyway, thanks for your interest and 

              maybe at some point in the future I will release it.   I kind of overbuilt these programs as they have

              a number of hidden options, wheels etc.. that give the user many ways to generate the lines and set

              the rogue values..   

               

              Pic of P-4 setup using 6 values.

              rogue-dg

              RL, I am waiting with baited breath.

              Just do it......

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
                Member #59354
                March 13, 2008
                3962 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 14, 2015, 2:52 am - IP Logged

                Spot9

                The rogue values are generated by a algorithm / conversion process.  The only thing special about

                the values are that they are somewhat more predictable than the actual numbers they represent.

                Five rogues equates to 4*4*4*4*4=1024 which will more than cover a pick-3 game as each one is

                ranged from 0 to 3. 

                The overall odds are the same so there is no advantage from that perspective but through analysis

                I have been able to predict around 80% without much effort.  The program has a game-mode which

                allows playing against real data from the games history and I hope I can work up to the 100% level.

                If I can reach the level where I can predict the first 6 rogue values for my 5-39 then any line I play from

                those generated will pay 10 to 1.  In the pic below you can see that playing just the first 6 will produce

                3of5 or greater winners.   Six rogues reduces to 142 which if a person could achieve that level then it's

                within the realm of buying every line.    Even if a person could only manage it one out of every 30 games

                it would be a money maker.  For now I am working on picking 9 rogues for a 3 line play. 

                 

                6-rogue play

                pick-5

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                  Economy class
                  Belgium
                  Member #123700
                  February 27, 2012
                  4035 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 14, 2015, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

                  I like the idea with different colors for the numbers.

                    lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                    New Mexico
                    United States
                    Member #86099
                    January 29, 2010
                    11116 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 16, 2015, 10:44 pm - IP Logged

                    lakerben

                    For now I have to say no, the program is still under development but so far it's proving to be the best

                    I have ever written.  I have deleted all my older stuff from my computer.  I have a daily game version

                    that operates the same way and it will reduce a P-4 to 3 lines with 6 rogues.  Each rogue value has a

                    range of 0 to 3 and it outputs straight hits.  I am in the process of testing all my old predictions tools

                    and analysis stuff to see what I can find that helps pin down the rogue values.  P-3 can be reduced to

                    5 lines with 4 rogue values or 2 lines if 5 rogues are set.   The hard part right now is trying to decide 

                    which game to work on, number games or daily games,  both are really tempting.   These programs

                    don't need extra filtering which was the motive behind them.  Anyway, thanks for your interest and 

                    maybe at some point in the future I will release it.   I kind of overbuilt these programs as they have

                    a number of hidden options, wheels etc.. that give the user many ways to generate the lines and set

                    the rogue values..   

                     

                    Pic of P-4 setup using 6 values.

                    rogue-dg

                    Wow! I hope you make this available!

                    Thumbs Up

                    How about them cowboys!

                     

                     

                    US Flag

                      bootleg233's avatar - Lottery-034.jpg
                      Tn
                      United States
                      Member #54963
                      September 4, 2007
                      1164 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 21, 2015, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                      Spot9

                      The rogue values are generated by a algorithm / conversion process.  The only thing special about

                      the values are that they are somewhat more predictable than the actual numbers they represent.

                      Five rogues equates to 4*4*4*4*4=1024 which will more than cover a pick-3 game as each one is

                      ranged from 0 to 3. 

                      The overall odds are the same so there is no advantage from that perspective but through analysis

                      I have been able to predict around 80% without much effort.  The program has a game-mode which

                      allows playing against real data from the games history and I hope I can work up to the 100% level.

                      If I can reach the level where I can predict the first 6 rogue values for my 5-39 then any line I play from

                      those generated will pay 10 to 1.  In the pic below you can see that playing just the first 6 will produce

                      3of5 or greater winners.   Six rogues reduces to 142 which if a person could achieve that level then it's

                      within the realm of buying every line.    Even if a person could only manage it one out of every 30 games

                      it would be a money maker.  For now I am working on picking 9 rogues for a 3 line play. 

                       

                      6-rogue play

                      pick-5

                      Hey RL Boot here!! Hope you getting it narrowed in!!! Looks good! Best of luck with it!!

                      WHEN IT FEELS THE WHOLE WORLD SUCKS!

                      RELAX.........IT'S ONLY GRAVITY Big Smile

                      I think I can I think I can!!!!

                        adulane62's avatar - file php?avatar=16228.gif
                        From Denver, Rocky Mountain Empire,
                        United States
                        Member #49750
                        February 13, 2007
                        439 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 26, 2015, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

                        Hi all

                        Here are a few pics that shows linear regression.  The first pic shows the program for which I am using

                        regression to predict the next value for Rogue positions A to J for my 5-39 game.  Each rogue position

                        has 4 possible choices, 0-1-2-3 so each value is expected to show on average around 1 of every 4 plays.

                        reges-1

                        The next pic shows a scatter plot which shows the number of shows for each value over 200 games.

                        regres-2

                         

                        The next pic shows the value plotted one at a time

                        regres-3

                         

                        The black line here shows the expected and as you can see the actual values varies over the plot.  This graph

                        is very small and one pixel change up or down indicates one value change which is hard for us to see here but

                        easy for the program.  Next the program will draw many new straight lines to find the one that runs through 

                        the exact center of as many as possible.   There are a number of different methods used to plot the next x-y

                        position for the value to hit or to assign a probability for each value showing in the next draw.  Sometimes if

                        there are too few values the plots will show that each value has a very good chance of hitting where as stated

                        above if too many then we have to switch to non-linear regression.  These values are very linear as you can see

                        from the graphs.  Hope this helps.

                        RL

                        Greetings, RL! Is this an extension of the 10 programs we have? If not, how is it different? Details please. Thanks!

                        Go Broncos!  White Bounce

                          lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                          New Mexico
                          United States
                          Member #86099
                          January 29, 2010
                          11116 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 31, 2015, 2:01 pm - IP Logged

                          Greetings, RL! Is this an extension of the 10 programs we have? If not, how is it different? Details please. Thanks!

                          Thumbs Up

                          How about them cowboys!

                           

                           

                          US Flag

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                            United States
                            Member #59354
                            March 13, 2008
                            3962 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 15, 2015, 10:28 pm - IP Logged

                            Hi all

                            The 10 tools I uploaded in the other topic were for anyone who wanted to play around with digit

                            theory.   

                             

                            Most of my stuff comes with a bias search tool that is based on regression but it falls short of pinning

                            the tail on the donkey so to say.   I don't plan to release the rogue program anytime soon as it is still

                            being tested and developed.

                             

                            With the Rogue-DG version I only need to set the first 4 values for a P-3 straight hit in 5 lines and I

                            currently averaging 3 out of 4 most attempts which is far better than the expected.  You can see from

                            the pic below that I have made several changes and added other analysis options. 

                             

                            For the number games, at least for now I am still using an old lexie program and playing one line each

                            game.  I have gotten close with this program a few times but it's very hard to hit all 6 values.   It seems

                            that the best predictor I have found so far is gut-instinct but I am not ready to stop looking.

                            Lexie program

                             

                            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                              Avatar
                              Tahiti- Polynesia
                              Tuvalu
                              Member #34524
                              March 4, 2006
                              54 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 16, 2015, 12:42 am - IP Logged

                              bla bla bla bla...etc.....