mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 20147 Posts Offline

Posted: December 22, 2014, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by anubinareloaded on December 22, 2014

My previous post was aimed atRL- RANDOMLOGIC .bob790 could also indicate the basic data of % correct and economic ROI or overall performance of the model / system.You may indicate too.Show this data means nothing for the user indicates ...

I assumed bob790 was trying to get a conversation started about nonlinear regression since he had nothing to sell and that was my reasoning for looking at his prediction results to get an idea of how well his theory was working. I have a few ideas of my own and have been posting on the predictions board the combinations I have been playing based on my ideas. If they prove to be worthwhile I will consider sharing them with anyone who is interested

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one *

bgonÃ§alves Brasil Member #92564 June 9, 2010 2336 Posts Offline

Posted: December 22, 2014, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

Hello, rl, perfect ok !! Thank you, yes, position by position separate bear fruit And also seeing the relationship with the next example column 2 with the column 1, column 2 with Column3. etc., and delta values by position

Tahiti- Polynesia Tuvalu Member #34524 March 4, 2006 57 Posts Offline

Posted: December 28, 2014, 9:14 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by anubinareloaded on December 21, 2014

With Euromillions 5/50, with numbers between 1 and 50, variations are large and the curb is chaotic. Prediction is more difficult. We use nonlinear regression.

Or you can use a model to make for example 10 groups (you can use FFT for equalice numbers in groups). The model is not valid if you obtain one group with 30 numbers and others groups with 2 or 3 numbers. Here is a result example of good theorical model:

group 1: 12 numbers

group 2: 9 numbers

group 3: 8 numbers

group 4: 7 numbers

group 5: 5 numbers

group 6: 5 numbers

group 7: 4 numbers

Then you can use LinReg to this groups; if the LinReg function show a group to predict, then you know the numbers of this group.

Yes, lotteries are chaotic. The more numbers, the more chaotic. Graphs are chaotic. Now, you can use techniques to make the graph less chaotic as scientists do. Some use normalization. I had little success with that. Other use splines to smooth the graph. I got better results with this technique using a sorted historyfile of drawings. That's a little surprising as unsorted history is the logic way using nonlinear regression but using the sorted file make the history less random.

Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers. That's huge but you'll get better predictions. Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1. Then you add the predict number to your original file and use spline to get the history file for number 2, etc...

That's not an easy task but that's the way to go.

Other thing. Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before.

Yes, lotteries are chaotic. The more numbers, the more chaotic. Graphs are chaotic. Now, you can use techniques to make the graph less chaotic as scientists do. Some use normalization. I had little success with that. Other use splines to smooth the graph. I got better results with this technique using a sorted historyfile of drawings. That's a little surprising as unsorted history is the logic way using nonlinear regression but using the sorted file make the history less random.

Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers. That's huge but you'll get better predictions. Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1. Then you add the predict number to your original file and use spline to get the history file for number 2, etc...

That's not an easy task but that's the way to go.

Other thing. Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before.

Bob

Buenas tardes bob, y felices fiestas!

"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

"Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers" -> Do you refer to 'Interpolation Thechnique'?

"I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers" -> Have you tried to insert the numbers that have not been winners in a drawing but having frequency information? I do not understand the competitive advantage of spline... Spline applied to NonLinReg?

"That's huge but you'll get better predictions" -> I understand , slow to calculate about 4 hours a draw (with 7 cores)

"Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1" -> Do you refer to 'First ball drawn' for number 1 o do you refer number 1 to 'ball identified by number 1'?

"Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before" -> Then you use a Trend observed in the past drawing (2, 3..) ok?

I am googliano, so I request patience to understand

Tahiti- Polynesia Tuvalu Member #34524 March 4, 2006 57 Posts Offline

Posted: December 29, 2014, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by anubinareloaded on December 29, 2014

Buenas tardes bob, y felices fiestas!

"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

"Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers" -> Do you refer to 'Interpolation Thechnique'?

"I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers" -> Have you tried to insert the numbers that have not been winners in a drawing but having frequency information? I do not understand the competitive advantage of spline... Spline applied to NonLinReg?

"That's huge but you'll get better predictions" -> I understand , slow to calculate about 4 hours a draw (with 7 cores)

"Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1" -> Do you refer to 'First ball drawn' for number 1 o do you refer number 1 to 'ball identified by number 1'?

"Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before" -> Then you use a Trend observed in the past drawing (2, 3..) ok?

I am googliano, so I request patience to understand

Hi,

You asked :

1 -"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

Let's take the last Euromillions drawing :

26/12/2014;26;45;27;49;17 Unsorted

26/12/2014;17;26;27;45;49 Sorted

I update my history files adding :

26 45 27 49 17

to the unsorted history file and

17 26 27 45 49

to the sorted history file.

As I said, results are better when one previous drawing has already 2 or 3 numbers repeating in the new drawing. You cannot know when that will happen, but it will happen regularly. Just wait for it.

2 -"Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers" -> Do you refer to 'Interpolation Thechnique'?

Yes, that is interpolation with spline.

3 -"I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers" -> Have you tried to insert the numbers that have not been winners in a drawing but having frequency information? I do not understand the competitive advantage of spline... Spline applied to NonLinReg?

Interpolation will give a smoother graph. You can also use the Kalman filter to get a processed file. Please,read articles about those techniques to have a better understanding.

About Spline applied to NonLinReg : Yes, you can use the technique you want to pre-process your time series, here, your history file. You just use nonlinear regression because your data is nonlinear.

4 -"That's huge but you'll get better predictions" -> I understand , slow to calculate about 4 hours a draw (with 7 cores)

Not so long to process. Using the entire file is not mandatory. In fact, I only use 40000 data, training from 1 to 40000 and predicting from 4001 to 40080. Only tests will show you the number of data to use. I just use half of my history file to train.

5 -"Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1" -> Do you refer to 'First ball drawn' for number 1 o do you refer number 1 to 'ball identified by number 1'?

To predict the first number, I train 1 to 4000 and predict from 40001 to 40080. I take the 40080th number as the prediction number. That will be the first number predicted. It can be say 3.5343743. I will round it to 4. Using splines will give you a history file with decimal numbers.

6 -"Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before" -> Then you use a Trend observed in the past drawing (2, 3..) ok?

No. I don't care about that. I just hope that will happen regularly. You need patience.

I don't look at statistics, I don't look at numbers. I just update my files, put them in one column, and apply nonlinear regression. The biggest challenge is to find the best parameters for prediction : dimension, delay and number of nearest numbers.Not an easy thing.

There are many more tips to say. I'm exploring all techniques used by scientists to get better results.

Tahiti- Polynesia Tuvalu Member #34524 March 4, 2006 57 Posts Offline

Posted: December 29, 2014, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

Finding the 5 numbers in Euromillions is very easy. We know how to do that : play all combinations. So, the challenge is to find just some numbers you can afford to play. My basic playing technique is to choose 10 numbers, combine them then filtering out the most improbable combinations. You can also use 15 numbers, using the last three drawings. One or two times a year, the 5 numbers have already popped up in these last 15 numbers. You'll often find repeaters in those last drawings, so that you'll be left with 14 or 13 numbers to play. You just need patience.

United Kingdom Member #162012 December 19, 2014 23 Posts Offline

Posted: January 5, 2015, 7:21 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by bob790 on December 29, 2014

Hi,

You asked :

1 -"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

Let's take the last Euromillions drawing :

26/12/2014;26;45;27;49;17 Unsorted

26/12/2014;17;26;27;45;49 Sorted

I update my history files adding :

26 45 27 49 17

to the unsorted history file and

17 26 27 45 49

to the sorted history file.

As I said, results are better when one previous drawing has already 2 or 3 numbers repeating in the new drawing. You cannot know when that will happen, but it will happen regularly. Just wait for it.

2 -"Using splines, you insert intermediary numbers between two successive numbers" -> Do you refer to 'Interpolation Thechnique'?

Yes, that is interpolation with spline.

3 -"I use B-spline to insert 80 intermediary numbers between two successive numbers. If you have say 1000 numbers in your file, your new file will have 80000 numbers" -> Have you tried to insert the numbers that have not been winners in a drawing but having frequency information? I do not understand the competitive advantage of spline... Spline applied to NonLinReg?

Interpolation will give a smoother graph. You can also use the Kalman filter to get a processed file. Please,read articles about those techniques to have a better understanding.

About Spline applied to NonLinReg : Yes, you can use the technique you want to pre-process your time series, here, your history file. You just use nonlinear regression because your data is nonlinear.

4 -"That's huge but you'll get better predictions" -> I understand , slow to calculate about 4 hours a draw (with 7 cores)

Not so long to process. Using the entire file is not mandatory. In fact, I only use 40000 data, training from 1 to 40000 and predicting from 4001 to 40080. Only tests will show you the number of data to use. I just use half of my history file to train.

5 -"Then, when predicting, you'll take the 80th number predicted as the prediction for number 1" -> Do you refer to 'First ball drawn' for number 1 o do you refer number 1 to 'ball identified by number 1'?

To predict the first number, I train 1 to 4000 and predict from 40001 to 40080. I take the 40080th number as the prediction number. That will be the first number predicted. It can be say 3.5343743. I will round it to 4. Using splines will give you a history file with decimal numbers.

6 -"Nonlinear regression give the best results when you already have 2.3 or more numbers which popped in a former drawing say the last drawing or 2 or 3 drawing before" -> Then you use a Trend observed in the past drawing (2, 3..) ok?

No. I don't care about that. I just hope that will happen regularly. You need patience.

I don't look at statistics, I don't look at numbers. I just update my files, put them in one column, and apply nonlinear regression. The biggest challenge is to find the best parameters for prediction : dimension, delay and number of nearest numbers.Not an easy thing.

There are many more tips to say. I'm exploring all techniques used by scientists to get better results.

Bob

1 -"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

Let's take the last Euromillions drawing :

26/12/2014;26;45;27;49;17 Unsorted

26/12/2014;17;26;27;45;49 Sorted

I update my history files adding :

26 45 27 49 17

to the unsorted history file and

17 26 27 45 49

to the sorted history file.

As I said, results are better when one previous drawing has already 2 or 3 numbers repeating in the new drawing. You cannot know when that will happen, but it will happen regularly. Just wait for it.

Do you think that ordering the balls by pre-assigned numeric identifier get some competitive advantage?

Tahiti- Polynesia Tuvalu Member #34524 March 4, 2006 57 Posts Offline

Posted: January 5, 2015, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by anubinareloaded on January 5, 2015

1 -"using a sorted historyfile of drawings" -> I understand that you order the data 'in crescendo' by frequency or appearances, but... you translate the problem to the number of draw, ok? You translate the incognita from axis Y to axis X, then I suppose that you can resolve the X incognita with NonLinReg... What is the performance of this technique?

Let's take the last Euromillions drawing :

26/12/2014;26;45;27;49;17 Unsorted

26/12/2014;17;26;27;45;49 Sorted

I update my history files adding :

26 45 27 49 17

to the unsorted history file and

17 26 27 45 49

to the sorted history file.

As I said, results are better when one previous drawing has already 2 or 3 numbers repeating in the new drawing. You cannot know when that will happen, but it will happen regularly. Just wait for it.

Do you think that ordering the balls by pre-assigned numeric identifier get some competitive advantage?

Hi,

I just choose the method which gave me the best results till now, and try to make it better. I can include others methods to see what happen.

Numbers on balls are just references to each ball with his own specifications. : you can give each number a name, or anything you want as a, b,c.... With splines however, references must be numbers.

Difficult for me to explain my whole method and how I see lottery.

United Kingdom Member #162012 December 19, 2014 23 Posts Offline

Posted: January 6, 2015, 4:01 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by bob790 on January 5, 2015

Hi,

I just choose the method which gave me the best results till now, and try to make it better. I can include others methods to see what happen.

Numbers on balls are just references to each ball with his own specifications. : you can give each number a name, or anything you want as a, b,c.... With splines however, references must be numbers.

Difficult for me to explain my whole method and how I see lottery.

Bob

OK, thank you.

Do you have data (%) on successes with this system?

My performance data on 100 sweepstakes EuroMillions (main 5/50 balls) in a selection pool of 15 numbers:

Tahiti- Polynesia Tuvalu Member #34524 March 4, 2006 57 Posts Offline

Posted: January 6, 2015, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

Are those statistics calculated on real tickets you bought, or they calculated on a theorical basis? How do you get them?

I don't calculate the statistics of my results. If "Sweepstakes" mean "ready made tickets", then I'm sure that my results are far better than random tickets sold by Euromillions.

5/15 happen 1, or more rarely, 2 times a year. Drawings happen 2 times a week, that's 104 times a year. So, success percentage is closer to 1 or 2%. 6% is huge.