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Power Mega Balls with Three Sum Math

Topic closed. 167 replies. Last post 2 months ago by Sunglasses.

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Lisbon
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Posted: July 4, 2015, 6:06 am - IP Logged

Hi

Once again: How can players use this knowledge in order to beat the odds in POWERBALL?

This kind of work represents a great job and effort coming from you but this was already done thousands of times by mathematicians and enthusiasts...

And really, considering prediction as a sort of war against reality I do not see how can you defeat and open breaches in reality`s walls with these kind of weapons. Reality is made of fractal mathematics (and this is already an approach) and most of the people are trying to fight it with Euclidian mathematics and bell shape curves, arithmetic, geometric, harmonic averages, etc.

These are too much weak weapons. Like I said once is like fighting a machine gun with a plastic revolver or a cancer with tea...

Reality does not calculates the average. Reality is simply... real...

So, predictive algorithms must be more realistic...

 

RENTAP

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    3675 Posts
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    Posted: July 4, 2015, 11:31 am - IP Logged

    Hi

    Once again: How can players use this knowledge in order to beat the odds in POWERBALL?

    This kind of work represents a great job and effort coming from you but this was already done thousands of times by mathematicians and enthusiasts...

    And really, considering prediction as a sort of war against reality I do not see how can you defeat and open breaches in reality`s walls with these kind of weapons. Reality is made of fractal mathematics (and this is already an approach) and most of the people are trying to fight it with Euclidian mathematics and bell shape curves, arithmetic, geometric, harmonic averages, etc.

    These are too much weak weapons. Like I said once is like fighting a machine gun with a plastic revolver or a cancer with tea...

    Reality does not calculates the average. Reality is simply... real...

    So, predictive algorithms must be more realistic...

     

    RENTAP

    We're reposting your reply from the topic How to simulate a distribution and use the lottery's own randomness against itself since this is the relevant topic.

    We will get back to this a little later.

    We are testing and finalizing a =DisimulateNexus(Numbers, Distribution, N1, N2) function for the other topic.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Hello, Jade


    You have made a great statistical work.
    But the question is: what is this for?
    Can you build a predictive algorithm from this knowledge?

     

    Here's an example:
    Take the Megaball, once again.

    If the common player bet 1 number he will get 0.0666 hits per draw (1/15 = 0.0666). This is the REFERENCE or the so called Theoretical Average (TA).
    My question is: using this system (3 sums) how many hits can you achieve per draw?

     

    If after 100 samples, for example, you get 0.0666 hits a draw, then there is no advantage to follow it;

    If you get a higher value means you can beat the TA so, in this case you are predicting;

    finally, If you get a lower value you are also predicting because, in this case, you may bet against the algorithm.


    However, I fear it is not possible to predict using this knowledge because there is a synchronizing problem, I mean, although similarities in simulated and real patterns, you need to synchronize your model with the reality of the game.
    Several years ago when I started to develop predictive algorithms I lost a few hours or even days (I can`t remember exactly) with part of this same exercise you did and I quickly came to dead ends. However, you went a little bit further introducing simulated information.

    But, I insist: is that enough to beat the odds, i.e. to get more than 0,0666 matches per drawing? If so, the system works.

     

    But let`s see some obvious problems present in the 3 sums technique.

    If the first 2 numbers of the sum are 1 + 1 + ... = 24 and knowing that the ideal sum of Megaball is 24, it means that the third number would be 22. Now, the ball 22 does not exist!!!

    In the case of the first 2 numbers are 15+13+…= 24 the third number would be -4. However, Megaball does not contain negative numbers. Therefore, a brief review finds that there are dozens of black cases where the system does not work, because there are no enough numbers.

     

    But the real problem is to construct predictive algorithms based on Euclidian maths when the reality is fractal. We can not fight fractal maths with Euclidian ou Gaussian maths. That is the reason why is so difficult to predict...

    That is like fighting a war tank with a plastic revolver.

     

    Regards

    RENTAP

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
      United States
      Member #21
      December 7, 2001
      3675 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 6, 2015, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

      We're reposting your reply from the topic How to simulate a distribution and use the lottery's own randomness against itself since this is the relevant topic.

      We will get back to this a little later.

      We are testing and finalizing a =DisimulateNexus(Numbers, Distribution, N1, N2) function for the other topic.

      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

      Hello, Jade


      You have made a great statistical work.
      But the question is: what is this for?
      Can you build a predictive algorithm from this knowledge?

       

      Here's an example:
      Take the Megaball, once again.

      If the common player bet 1 number he will get 0.0666 hits per draw (1/15 = 0.0666). This is the REFERENCE or the so called Theoretical Average (TA).
      My question is: using this system (3 sums) how many hits can you achieve per draw?

       

      If after 100 samples, for example, you get 0.0666 hits a draw, then there is no advantage to follow it;

      If you get a higher value means you can beat the TA so, in this case you are predicting;

      finally, If you get a lower value you are also predicting because, in this case, you may bet against the algorithm.


      However, I fear it is not possible to predict using this knowledge because there is a synchronizing problem, I mean, although similarities in simulated and real patterns, you need to synchronize your model with the reality of the game.
      Several years ago when I started to develop predictive algorithms I lost a few hours or even days (I can`t remember exactly) with part of this same exercise you did and I quickly came to dead ends. However, you went a little bit further introducing simulated information.

      But, I insist: is that enough to beat the odds, i.e. to get more than 0,0666 matches per drawing? If so, the system works.

       

      But let`s see some obvious problems present in the 3 sums technique.

      If the first 2 numbers of the sum are 1 + 1 + ... = 24 and knowing that the ideal sum of Megaball is 24, it means that the third number would be 22. Now, the ball 22 does not exist!!!

      In the case of the first 2 numbers are 15+13+…= 24 the third number would be -4. However, Megaball does not contain negative numbers. Therefore, a brief review finds that there are dozens of black cases where the system does not work, because there are no enough numbers.

       

      But the real problem is to construct predictive algorithms based on Euclidian maths when the reality is fractal. We can not fight fractal maths with Euclidian ou Gaussian maths. That is the reason why is so difficult to predict...

      That is like fighting a war tank with a plastic revolver.

       

      Regards

      RENTAP

      Well, here go.

      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

      "...

      Here's an example:
      Take the Megaball, once again.

      If the common player bet 1 number he will get 0.0666 hits per draw (1/15 = 0.0666). This is the REFERENCE or the so called Theoretical Average (TA).
      My question is: using this system (3 sums) how many hits can you achieve per draw?

       

      If after 100 samples, for example, you get 0.0666 hits a draw, then there is no advantage to follow it;

      If you get a higher value means you can beat the TA so, in this case you are predicting;

      finally, If you get a lower value you are also predicting because, in this case, you may bet against the algorithm.


      However, I fear it is not possible to predict using this knowledge because there is a synchronizing problem, I mean, although similarities in simulated and real patterns, you need to synchronize your model with the reality of the game.
      Several years ago when I started to develop predictive algorithms I lost a few hours or even days (I can`t remember exactly) with part of this same exercise you did and I quickly came to dead ends. However, you went a little bit further introducing simulated information.

      But, I insist: is that enough to beat the odds, i.e. to get more than 0,0666 matches per drawing? If so, the system works.

      ..."

      ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

      Yep, we agree.

      Doing better than (1 / 15, 0.0666... or 6.67%) for the Megaball is an indication of a system or algorithm that works.

      Let's look at the Theoretical Average (TA) using Excel's =Randbetween(Lo, Hi) as a prediction example, first.

      The Randbetween is just a plain old random selector and is homogeneous throughout the numbers being selected from Lo to Hi.

      This means the numbers tend to be selected without bias and over long sets of selections are nearly equal in frequency.

      If we use Randbetween as our prediction, the Lo is 1 and the Hi is 15.

      We ran a 1,500 sample set for each drawing on the Megaball using Randbetween(1, 15) and derived the hit percentage for each 1,500 sample sets.

      Then, we repeated the same 1,500 sample set 3 more times for a total of 4 different 1,500 sample sets per draw.

      Below is a chart with the frequency of the hit percentages.

      The percentages are grouped into 1/3 % or 0.333...% increments.

      The highest frequency hit percentage is where we would expect it to be, right at the 6.67% Theoretical Average (TA); we colored the 6.67% a darker shade.

      Also, notice the hit percentages tend to cluster near the 6.67% TA with an average of 6.64%, a minimum of 4.80% and maximum of 9.27%.

      Exactly 50% of the percentage hits are average and below; likewise, 50% are above average.

       

      Now, let's look at a Three Sum Quantum Selector, the CombNexus(N, R, C, Z1, Z2).

      A Three Sum Quantum Selector works on the principle of connecting the three aspects of Past, Present and Future in a unified sum and finding the Future by passing through a reverse function of a simple integrated probability.

      This selector is biased on a function of an integrated sum and is not homogeneous throughout the numbers being selected.

      We ran the same 1,500 sample sets per drawing 4 times.

      The objective is to have a greater than 6.67% hit percentage.

      Below we can see the hit percentages are spread out more, however, the peak hit percentage is now at 7.67%, a full 1% above the TA.

      The average hit percentage is 6.87%

      Also, the maximum extends out to near 18% at 17.73% and nearly double the TA maximum of 9.27%.

      The chart is colored with Red below average, Green average and Blue above average.

      58.1% of the total percentage hits are above average, Blue.

      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer

        Avatar
        Lisbon
        Portugal
        Member #167185
        June 29, 2015
        22 Posts
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        Posted: July 7, 2015, 10:29 am - IP Logged

        Hi

        Thank you for your reply

        These are good results, however I have 1 question:

         

        You refer you used 1500 samples on your test. But since October 2013 until nowadays

        we couldn`t have 1500 samples in Megaball. Does it mean that the samples are simulated

        (random number generator) and not real?

         

        In that case, do you think it is possible that this good performance may be replicated when

        you use REAL RESULTS of Megaball and other REAL GAMES?

         

        Is it possible for you to select a past period of 60 (or more) REAL drawings, for example,

        and make a retrospective work and collect the real performance?

         

        If so, you may say: look, in these past 60 drawings I was supposed to get 4 hits (60/15=4)

        betting 1 Megaball, but, in fact, I got 5 hits, which means a hit performance of 0,083 hits per draw,

        25% above TA (0,0667); or, betting a set of 5 Megaballs I was supposed to get

        0,333 (5/15=0.333) hits per draw or 20 hits (in absolute counting)

        but I got 23 hits which means I got 0,383 hits per draw, or +15% above the TA.

         

        I put this question because I am afraid there is a gap between RNG drawings and physical drawings,

        I mean, I think they don`t follow the same rules and principles. So, for a matter of safety and precision

        I think, whenever possible, we must support the test and studies in real results or, at least, results provided

        by the same “media” of the game we are studying.

         

        RENTAP

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19828 Posts
          Online
          Posted: July 7, 2015, 10:47 am - IP Logged

          Hi

          Thank you for your reply

          These are good results, however I have 1 question:

           

          You refer you used 1500 samples on your test. But since October 2013 until nowadays

          we couldn`t have 1500 samples in Megaball. Does it mean that the samples are simulated

          (random number generator) and not real?

           

          In that case, do you think it is possible that this good performance may be replicated when

          you use REAL RESULTS of Megaball and other REAL GAMES?

           

          Is it possible for you to select a past period of 60 (or more) REAL drawings, for example,

          and make a retrospective work and collect the real performance?

           

          If so, you may say: look, in these past 60 drawings I was supposed to get 4 hits (60/15=4)

          betting 1 Megaball, but, in fact, I got 5 hits, which means a hit performance of 0,083 hits per draw,

          25% above TA (0,0667); or, betting a set of 5 Megaballs I was supposed to get

          0,333 (5/15=0.333) hits per draw or 20 hits (in absolute counting)

          but I got 23 hits which means I got 0,383 hits per draw, or +15% above the TA.

           

          I put this question because I am afraid there is a gap between RNG drawings and physical drawings,

          I mean, I think they don`t follow the same rules and principles. So, for a matter of safety and precision

          I think, whenever possible, we must support the test and studies in real results or, at least, results provided

          by the same “media” of the game we are studying.

           

          RENTAP

          It would be impossible to get a real 1500 drawings sample of either of the multi-states games since neither have ever had 1500 drawings without a matrix change.  MegaMillions has only had 178 drawings since its last matrix change so it's either 178 or make up your own.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
            Member #21
            December 7, 2001
            3675 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 7, 2015, 10:48 am - IP Logged

            ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

            "...

            You refer you used 1500 samples on your test. But since October 2013 until nowadays

            we couldn`t have 1500 samples in Megaball. Does it mean that the samples are simulated

            (random number generator) and not real?

            ..."

            ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

            It is 1,500 samples of Randbetween and CombNexus compared to a Mega Ball per draw repeated 4 times.

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              Avatar
              Lisbon
              Portugal
              Member #167185
              June 29, 2015
              22 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 7, 2015, 6:12 pm - IP Logged
              Hi 
              I would never trust in a forecasting model (if that is what you intend to develop)
              regarding a physical game based on simulated computer results.
              It is not reliable. It is a lottery itself.

              Nevertheless, 178 samples is already a significant amount of samples.
              In fact, with 35, 40 samples is already possible to detect a trend, that is,
              whether or not the model works.

              Most of the people think randomness is similar either in physical games
              (natural randomness) as in number generators (artificial randomness)
              but my experience tells me it is not. First of all, because one is natural
              and the other is "fabricated" by a software.
              RENTAP


                Avatar
                New Member
                toronto
                Canada
                Member #13819
                April 14, 2005
                14 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 18, 2015, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

                "...

                You refer you used 1500 samples on your test. But since October 2013 until nowadays

                we couldn`t have 1500 samples in Megaball. Does it mean that the samples are simulated

                (random number generator) and not real?

                ..."

                ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

                It is 1,500 samples of Randbetween and CombNexus compared to a Mega Ball per draw repeated 4 times.

                Jade

                can you do sheet for ontario daily keno 20/70

                thx

                  SilverLion's avatar - 8ball

                  United States
                  Member #165541
                  April 12, 2015
                  545 Posts
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                  Posted: July 19, 2015, 12:01 am - IP Logged

                  I think Power Mega Balls is redundant.

                  Its either a PowerBall

                  or a 

                  Megaball.

                  Unless you live in Europe.

                  Then its a Power Star

                  or a 

                  Mega Star.

                  If you live in the US these these

                  days it seems to be a power dwarf mega planet.

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
                    United States
                    Member #21
                    December 7, 2001
                    3675 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 21, 2015, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

                    Jade

                    can you do sheet for ontario daily keno 20/70

                    thx

                    we will look in to that.

                    we're working speeding up some of the functions and adding some new ones.

                    we will make a basic file for pick 20 of 70, but you'll have to populate the data yourself.

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3675 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 21, 2015, 12:22 pm - IP Logged

                      I think Power Mega Balls is redundant.

                      Its either a PowerBall

                      or a 

                      Megaball.

                      Unless you live in Europe.

                      Then its a Power Star

                      or a 

                      Mega Star.

                      If you live in the US these these

                      days it seems to be a power dwarf mega planet.

                      Well, we were going to call it Power Your Mega Balls with Three Sum Math, but it ended up the way you see it now.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 21, 2015, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

                        Jade

                        can you do sheet for ontario daily keno 20/70

                        thx

                        We've made a very simple sheet.

                         

                        http://www.jadexcode.com/files/excel/ThreeSums-Keno-20-70.xlsm

                        or

                        ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/ThreeSums-Keno-20-70.xlsm

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                          Economy class
                          Belgium
                          Member #123700
                          February 27, 2012
                          4035 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 22, 2015, 6:35 am - IP Logged

                          You're coming my way with Excel.

                            lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                            New Mexico
                            United States
                            Member #86099
                            January 29, 2010
                            11119 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 2, 2015, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

                            We're reposting your reply from the topic How to simulate a distribution and use the lottery's own randomness against itself since this is the relevant topic.

                            We will get back to this a little later.

                            We are testing and finalizing a =DisimulateNexus(Numbers, Distribution, N1, N2) function for the other topic.

                            ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

                            Hello, Jade


                            You have made a great statistical work.
                            But the question is: what is this for?
                            Can you build a predictive algorithm from this knowledge?

                             

                            Here's an example:
                            Take the Megaball, once again.

                            If the common player bet 1 number he will get 0.0666 hits per draw (1/15 = 0.0666). This is the REFERENCE or the so called Theoretical Average (TA).
                            My question is: using this system (3 sums) how many hits can you achieve per draw?

                             

                            If after 100 samples, for example, you get 0.0666 hits a draw, then there is no advantage to follow it;

                            If you get a higher value means you can beat the TA so, in this case you are predicting;

                            finally, If you get a lower value you are also predicting because, in this case, you may bet against the algorithm.


                            However, I fear it is not possible to predict using this knowledge because there is a synchronizing problem, I mean, although similarities in simulated and real patterns, you need to synchronize your model with the reality of the game.
                            Several years ago when I started to develop predictive algorithms I lost a few hours or even days (I can`t remember exactly) with part of this same exercise you did and I quickly came to dead ends. However, you went a little bit further introducing simulated information.

                            But, I insist: is that enough to beat the odds, i.e. to get more than 0,0666 matches per drawing? If so, the system works.

                             

                            But let`s see some obvious problems present in the 3 sums technique.

                            If the first 2 numbers of the sum are 1 + 1 + ... = 24 and knowing that the ideal sum of Megaball is 24, it means that the third number would be 22. Now, the ball 22 does not exist!!!

                            In the case of the first 2 numbers are 15+13+…= 24 the third number would be -4. However, Megaball does not contain negative numbers. Therefore, a brief review finds that there are dozens of black cases where the system does not work, because there are no enough numbers.

                             

                            But the real problem is to construct predictive algorithms based on Euclidian maths when the reality is fractal. We can not fight fractal maths with Euclidian ou Gaussian maths. That is the reason why is so difficult to predict...

                            That is like fighting a war tank with a plastic revolver.

                             

                            Regards

                            RENTAP

                            I Agree!

                            How about them cowboys!

                             

                             

                            US Flag

                              Avatar
                              bgonçalves
                              Brasil
                              Member #92564
                              June 9, 2010
                              2122 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 9, 2015, 10:25 am - IP Logged

                              Hello jade  my lottery is 100/20 can a study of three sums? The 100/20 please

                                 
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