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Stack47

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Jan 12, 2023, 10:53 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 11, 2023
"the problem was the state's Lotto 5 game RNG drawing was programmed for "no repeat numbers" and so were the number games."

I guess "ThEy LeArNeD"..huh?...I've been trying to tell whoeveevah would listen, that the Math I see?..sayz utherwize...Some Lottery Gamez are Programmed to be Anti -Statistical... cauze REAL Math duzzn't lie..

And it iz Sooooo obvious that MUSL haz long been at werk reprogramming their system to rigg drawingz...but it'z not gonna hep'em...itz impossible to replace the Truth wit a Lie..it'z like puttin a Red tree in a forest full of Green onez....the Laws of Botany will point it out..

Wonder whut they pay thoze so-called Analysts...LOs will soon see that they're a waste of money...cauze GOD's Laws cain't be defeated...eVeR..!!

And , when I publish my book about Lottery Game Probabilities...how to correctly pick numberz...their lil masquerade will be Oovah!

Like pullin back the curtains on the so-called Wizard in the "Wizard of Oddz"..

-Stat$talker

"Wonder whut they pay thoze so-called Analysts"

I wasn't saying lotteries don't hire people for statistical analysts, but seriously doubt their primary function is to analyze past results of drawings they already said were random.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
garyo1954

Texas
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Jan 13, 2023, 2:45 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 12, 2023
"Wonder whut they pay thoze so-called Analysts"

I wasn't saying lotteries don't hire people for statistical analysts, but seriously doubt their primary function is to analyze past results of drawings they already said were random.

I agree Stack.

First, those statistical analysts are paid to find the draws are random. In Texas when the lottery first came in in 1992 they used a couple of universities......UT and A&M.....to verify the fairness of the draws.

Second, it's simple PR. How do you get people to play a game if they don't think, and you don't prove, it's fair?

Then fair became random. But......the big BUT is there is no absolute random, most certainly not in clearly defined limited system, using a clearly defined limited process to generate a limited set of number from a clearly limited total.

Always two extremes in play in these things.

On one end we have determinism; the idea that every action, even human actions, are determined by external forces (You have no free will). That number you just chose was the result of some kid in Iowa shooting a gopher with his dad's nail gun.

On the other end, we have randomness, or randomism which is simply a faith, or an idea that crap happens (for no reason). To further complicate random, you have epistemic random (meaning the random element is your knowledge) and nonepistemic random (meaning the random element is intrinsic to the process).

Epistemic random is when a person slaps a coin on the counter, keeps his hand over it, and says, "Bet you 10 to 1 you can't tell me if this is head or tails."

You're a thinking person, you quickly run it through your mind, "It's a 50/50 chance, If I play 10 games @$1, and win 2, I'll win $20 and 8 losses will cost $8." Yeah, I'll play!

Now, you did that analysis on something that was not random (the coin was either heads or tails when it hit the counter). And yet with no knowledge of any result you were able to calculate you would ultimately come out ahead.

Nonepistemic random is the elements intrinsic to the process of a lottery; i.e., atmospheric pressure, air flow, dimensions of the chamber, temperature, weight of the balls, or something in the process the RNG uses to pop up the winning numbers (as in the Tennessee example).

And this brings us back physics, where everything is deterministic. And since we can't determine all the factors affecting the balls in the chamber, don't know all the factors involved in computer drawings, we call it random. But classical physics is nothing more than deterministic processes when our knowledge is epistemically random.

In simpler terms, we just don't have the knowledge necessary, or the ability to process the oompah-loompah amount of data necessary to solve what numbers come next. We use what we think is true, until it proves itself otherwise.

Now, I'm going to move back to the shallow end of the pool (where I belong), where kids shooting gophers with nail guns in Iowa has no effect on how cold my feet will be walking through three foot of snow in Boston.

https://towardsdatascience.com/when-science-and-philosophy-meet-randomness-determinism-and-chaos-abdb825c3114

G

None of us (I hope) lives our life on either extreme.

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
dr san

bgonÃ§alves
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Jan 13, 2023, 3:48 am

ok garyo, so the repetition of an event or a draw is the secret of probability !!!
Stat$talker

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Jan 13, 2023, 9:53 am

Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Jan 13, 2023
I agree Stack.

First, those statistical analysts are paid to find the draws are random. In Texas when the lottery first came in in 1992 they used a couple of universities......UT and A&M.....to verify the fairness of the draws.

Second, it's simple PR. How do you get people to play a game if they don't think, and you don't prove, it's fair?

Then fair became random. But......the big BUT is there is no absolute random, most certainly not in clearly defined limited system, using a clearly defined limited process to generate a limited set of number from a clearly limited total.

Always two extremes in play in these things.

On one end we have determinism; the idea that every action, even human actions, are determined by external forces (You have no free will). That number you just chose was the result of some kid in Iowa shooting a gopher with his dad's nail gun.

On the other end, we have randomness, or randomism which is simply a faith, or an idea that crap happens (for no reason). To further complicate random, you have epistemic random (meaning the random element is your knowledge) and nonepistemic random (meaning the random element is intrinsic to the process).

Epistemic random is when a person slaps a coin on the counter, keeps his hand over it, and says, "Bet you 10 to 1 you can't tell me if this is head or tails."

You're a thinking person, you quickly run it through your mind, "It's a 50/50 chance, If I play 10 games @$1, and win 2, I'll win $20 and 8 losses will cost $8." Yeah, I'll play!

Now, you did that analysis on something that was not random (the coin was either heads or tails when it hit the counter). And yet with no knowledge of any result you were able to calculate you would ultimately come out ahead.

Nonepistemic random is the elements intrinsic to the process of a lottery; i.e., atmospheric pressure, air flow, dimensions of the chamber, temperature, weight of the balls, or something in the process the RNG uses to pop up the winning numbers (as in the Tennessee example).

And this brings us back physics, where everything is deterministic. And since we can't determine all the factors affecting the balls in the chamber, don't know all the factors involved in computer drawings, we call it random. But classical physics is nothing more than deterministic processes when our knowledge is epistemically random.

In simpler terms, we just don't have the knowledge necessary, or the ability to process the oompah-loompah amount of data necessary to solve what numbers come next. We use what we think is true, until it proves itself otherwise.

Now, I'm going to move back to the shallow end of the pool (where I belong), where kids shooting gophers with nail guns in Iowa has no effect on how cold my feet will be walking through three foot of snow in Boston.

https://towardsdatascience.com/when-science-and-philosophy-meet-randomness-determinism-and-chaos-abdb825c3114

G

None of us (I hope) lives our life on either extreme.

Wheeeww...!!

So?, ..Duzz the Reader git the Loan,.. or not?..and if you ever try to argue such a moot concept before the US Supreme Court?.. they'll toss YOU out of Court onto yo head..!!

Soundz like the ramblingz of a corrupted Lawyer..
Stat$talker

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Jan 13, 2023, 10:07 am

Quote: Originally posted by dr san on Jan 13, 2023
ok garyo, so the repetition of an event or a draw is the secret of probability !!!

"so the repetition of an event or a draw is the secret of probability !!!"

Nooooo Doc,

Probability iz the secret to the repetition of an event or a draw..

Or Anything Predictory...

-Stat$talker
rcbbuckeye

100

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October 23, 2007
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Jan 13, 2023, 10:32 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 13, 2023
Wheeeww...!!

So?, ..Duzz the Reader git the Loan,.. or not?..and if you ever try to argue such a moot concept before the US Supreme Court?.. they'll toss YOU out of Court onto yo head..!!

Soundz like the ramblingz of a corrupted Lawyer..

Funny you mention the Supreme Court bouncing him out on his head....like they would you for trying to prove LO's are cheating you.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
garyo1954

Texas
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May 2, 2004
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Jan 13, 2023, 2:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 13, 2023
Wheeeww...!!

So?, ..Duzz the Reader git the Loan,.. or not?..and if you ever try to argue such a moot concept before the US Supreme Court?.. they'll toss YOU out of Court onto yo head..!!

Soundz like the ramblingz of a corrupted Lawyer..

Yeah, well, fact of life: When you swim with sharks, you sometimes get eaten. Not my problem.
(Oh, not a legal issue. It's a philosophical/science question. No court necessary.)

And it's a choice. Not a law.

As I said, I don't think any of us fit either extreme.
We believe in free will choice (most of us do anyway).

Okay, so if we allow for free will choice, and if we allow the lottery is a classic physics problem (cause and effect), then it is deterministic and can be solved. Except we are now faced with knowing and using a caca-cazillion amount of data (caca-cazillion is like Avagadro's constant 6.02214076 × 10²³ mol^{-1)

The logical reason it hasn't been solved is we don't have the knowledge of the data necessary, or the computing power to make use of that data.

On the other hand, If we say it's true random, we claim caca happens (for no reason). We're wasting our time trying. And we have as much chance of solving it as we do a meteor coming through the roof and taking off our little toe while we're sipping tea, petting the lap dog, watching "As the World Turns" (or "Days of Our Lives" if you wish).

Until submarines sail under the Sahara, I'll remain somewhere in the middle; that there is no absolute random and that the lottery is a deterministic process, in which our knowledge is, at best, epistemically random.

The choice is yours. Believe as you will. (Neg if you wish)

G}

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
Stat$talker

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Jan 13, 2023, 2:17 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Jan 13, 2023
Funny you mention the Supreme Court bouncing him out on his head....like they would you for trying to prove LO's are cheating you.

"like they would you for trying to prove LO's are cheating you. "

Well, I got neeewzz fa YOU...They may be able to affect future drawingz, but...they can't change the evidence of the past Historic drawingz.....

For it iz record of Proof , the Stats are now behaving differently, than in the past...becauze of recent Anti-Statistical re-programming..!!

So, it wouldn't be too hard to win MY argument...but you're still tryn to uze dat .10 cent Pscychology of yoz...but you're too stupid to realize, they're cheating eVeRyBoDy...I'm just the Modern day "Galileo of Gambling" to come along, that'z able to prove it..cauze Math?, duzzn't lie..

In due time..ultimately..GOD's time..BoZo

"(Oh, not a legal issue. It's a philosophical/science question. No court necessary.)"

-Stat$talker
garyo1954

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Jan 13, 2023, 2:38 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dr san on Jan 13, 2023
ok garyo, so the repetition of an event or a draw is the secret of probability !!!

No idea how you got to that point.

Probability uses known data and statistical analysis to arrive at a logical/reasonable likelihood.
It is not a guarantee but the possible answer using the known data you choose in the manner you choose.

Given the same problem and data 50 different people will likely see it differently and you'll get 50 different answers.

So what do you mean by "secret to probability?"

G

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
rcbbuckeye

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Texas
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October 23, 2007
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Jan 13, 2023, 2:42 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 13, 2023
"like they would you for trying to prove LO's are cheating you. "

Well, I got neeewzz fa YOU...They may be able to affect future drawingz, but...they can't change the evidence of the past Historic drawingz.....

For it iz record of Proof , the Stats are now behaving differently, than in the past...becauze of recent Anti-Statistical re-programming..!!

So, it wouldn't be too hard to win MY argument...but you're still tryn to uze dat .10 cent Pscychology of yoz...but you're too stupid to realize, they're cheating eVeRyBoDy...I'm just the Modern day "Galileo of Gambling" to come along, that'z able to prove it..cauze Math?, duzzn't lie..

In due time..ultimately..GOD's time..BoZo

"(Oh, not a legal issue. It's a philosophical/science question. No court necessary.)"

-Stat$talker

Well you're the one that just mentioned the SUPREME COURT.

If it wouldn't be too hard to win your argument, then go win it, or are you too chicken to try that too?

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
garyo1954

Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
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Jan 13, 2023, 2:48 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Jan 13, 2023
Well you're the one that just mentioned the SUPREME COURT.

If it wouldn't be too hard to win your argument, then go win it, or are you too chicken to try that too?

Don't be too hard on him. He grew up on Flat Earth in Clown Posseville believing grape soda and cotton candy was a dietary supplement.

G

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
United States
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September 1, 2019
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Jan 13, 2023, 2:53 pm

Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Jan 13, 2023
No idea how you got to that point.

Probability uses known data and statistical analysis to arrive at a logical/reasonable likelihood.
It is not a guarantee but the possible answer using the known data you choose in the manner you choose.

Given the same problem and data 50 different people will likely see it differently and you'll get 50 different answers.

So what do you mean by "secret to probability?"

G

"Probability uses known data and statistical analysis to arrive at a logical/reasonable likelihood.
It is not a guarantee "

PoPe1354?...THAT IZ NOT TRUE..!!

Your philosophical stance presumez, the moe complex the Mathematical problem gitz, the LESS accurate Math becomez..Math izn't just rEaSoNaBlE... itz EXACT..!!

I've already explained the definition of "Probability" before on heaa, so I won't re-hash it... But,...chew on dis....

2 + 2= 4...it'z Math, so? ..iz it "most likely to equal 4, but yet NOT a Guarantee that it will equal 4" ?

It cannot be BOTH

-Stat$talker
garyo1954

Texas
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Jan 13, 2023, 3:14 pm
Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 13, 2023
"Probability uses known data and statistical analysis to arrive at a logical/reasonable likelihood.
It is not a guarantee "

PoPe1354?...THAT IZ NOT TRUE..!!

Your philosophical stance presumez, the moe complex the Mathematical problem gitz, the LESS accurate Math becomez..Math izn't just rEaSoNaBlE... itz EXACT..!!

I've already explained the definition of "Probability" before on heaa, so I won't re-hash it... But,...chew on dis....

2 + 2= 4...it'z Math, so? ..iz it "most likely to equal 4, but yet NOT a Guarantee that it will equal 4" ?

It cannot be BOTH

-Stat$talker
Proof you don't know the first thing about probability.

Not an argument; it's a fact. Probability is a likelihood, not a guarantee.
Look it up, or continue to be an idiot.

prob·a·bil·i·ty

/ˌpräbəˈbilədē/
noun
1. the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.
  
  "the rain will make the probability of their arrival even greater"
  
  Similar:
  
  likelihood
likeliness

prospect

expectation

chance

chances

odds

possibility
- a probable or the most probable event.
  
  plural noun: probabilities
  
  "for a time revolution was a strong probability"
  
  Similar:
  
  probable event
prospect

possibility
- good/fair/reasonable bet
- Mathematics
  
  the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible.
  
  "the area under the curve represents probability"
Your choice.

G
I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
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October 23, 2007
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Jan 13, 2023, 5:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 13, 2023
"Probability uses known data and statistical analysis to arrive at a logical/reasonable likelihood.
It is not a guarantee "

PoPe1354?...THAT IZ NOT TRUE..!!

Your philosophical stance presumez, the moe complex the Mathematical problem gitz, the LESS accurate Math becomez..Math izn't just rEaSoNaBlE... itz EXACT..!!

I've already explained the definition of "Probability" before on heaa, so I won't re-hash it... But,...chew on dis....

2 + 2= 4...it'z Math, so? ..iz it "most likely to equal 4, but yet NOT a Guarantee that it will equal 4" ?

It cannot be BOTH

-Stat$talker

Here's math to "chew on".

70 x 69 x 68 x 67 x 66 = 1,452,361,680 /120 = 12,103,014 x 25 = 302,575,350

That is the REAL probable math. Players have 1 in 302,575,350 odds of winning the jackpot.

You're too chicken to even buy a ticket.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
Stack47

Kentucky
United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,396 Posts
Online

Jan 13, 2023, 6:09 pm

Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Jan 13, 2023
I agree Stack.

First, those statistical analysts are paid to find the draws are random. In Texas when the lottery first came in in 1992 they used a couple of universities......UT and A&M.....to verify the fairness of the draws.

Second, it's simple PR. How do you get people to play a game if they don't think, and you don't prove, it's fair?

Then fair became random. But......the big BUT is there is no absolute random, most certainly not in clearly defined limited system, using a clearly defined limited process to generate a limited set of number from a clearly limited total.

Always two extremes in play in these things.

On one end we have determinism; the idea that every action, even human actions, are determined by external forces (You have no free will). That number you just chose was the result of some kid in Iowa shooting a gopher with his dad's nail gun.

On the other end, we have randomness, or randomism which is simply a faith, or an idea that crap happens (for no reason). To further complicate random, you have epistemic random (meaning the random element is your knowledge) and nonepistemic random (meaning the random element is intrinsic to the process).

Epistemic random is when a person slaps a coin on the counter, keeps his hand over it, and says, "Bet you 10 to 1 you can't tell me if this is head or tails."

You're a thinking person, you quickly run it through your mind, "It's a 50/50 chance, If I play 10 games @$1, and win 2, I'll win $20 and 8 losses will cost $8." Yeah, I'll play!

Now, you did that analysis on something that was not random (the coin was either heads or tails when it hit the counter). And yet with no knowledge of any result you were able to calculate you would ultimately come out ahead.

Nonepistemic random is the elements intrinsic to the process of a lottery; i.e., atmospheric pressure, air flow, dimensions of the chamber, temperature, weight of the balls, or something in the process the RNG uses to pop up the winning numbers (as in the Tennessee example).

And this brings us back physics, where everything is deterministic. And since we can't determine all the factors affecting the balls in the chamber, don't know all the factors involved in computer drawings, we call it random. But classical physics is nothing more than deterministic processes when our knowledge is epistemically random.

In simpler terms, we just don't have the knowledge necessary, or the ability to process the oompah-loompah amount of data necessary to solve what numbers come next. We use what we think is true, until it proves itself otherwise.

Now, I'm going to move back to the shallow end of the pool (where I belong), where kids shooting gophers with nail guns in Iowa has no effect on how cold my feet will be walking through three foot of snow in Boston.

https://towardsdatascience.com/when-science-and-philosophy-meet-randomness-determinism-and-chaos-abdb825c3114

G

None of us (I hope) lives our life on either extreme.

The Ohio Lottery's first drawn game was the Buckeye 300 and they had an interesting idea of a random drawing.

"One thousand balls numbered 000 to 999 were poured into the tumbler by Jackie Urbanek of Parma Heights, Miss Ohio World 1974, the newspaper reported. The tumbler was spun end over end, and when it stopped turning 10 numbered balls fell into place. Three envelopes drawn from a drum containing the results of 30 horse races determined the winning chambers on the tumbler."

Can't imagine a Miss Ohio World pouring "one thousand balls" in a giant tumbler twice a day, seven days a week.

Over the years rules and regulations printed on the back of the tickets have changed, but regardless what players call random, each state lottery determines their definition of a random drawing. Hard to believe that lottery is turning 49 and harder to believe some players are still claiming (without evidence) the lotteries are cheating. And some are saying the drawings are rigged even though it goes back to lottery rules, regs and their definition of random that players agreed on when signing the ticket.

As for overall games being rigged, "Mega Millions said $1 from every ticket sold is added to the pot of gold. The other dollar goes back to the state where it was sold.". Florida pays out about 67% of the "other dollar" in prizes but considering the odds of winning ten bucks is 1 : 693, the payoffs are somewhat rigged to benefit the profits though players should know that before they buy a ticket.

"When Science and Philosophy meet Randomness" was a great read. Hopefully it can be translated in to Portuguese.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"

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