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Open Discussion: Define/Refine Prediction

Topic closed. 353 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Blackapple.

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November 25, 2003
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Posted: November 27, 2003, 2:10 pm - IP Logged

This is an interesting discussion!

According to the first message the odds are 1000:1 for the PICK 3 lottery for a Straight Win.

The real problem though is the low pay-out of 500:1 or online 600:1. I can easily prove - and I am of course not the only one - that everybody can  generally "beat the odds" with a system meaning: "Winning at a Better Rate than 1000:1 Straight or 220:1 Boxed". BobP showed that for example in the review of MasterMind 3 in Florida.

Everybody of course has their own approaches, and here I read again about the analysis of hundreds of draws. My position is that if you are trying to predict from hundreds of draws, you will only be correct in the long-run, which does not help in the "Now" or near future! I also more and more see that the term "Forecast" seems better that "Prediction", and that the forecast should be valid for more than only one future drawing. If you are expecting a certain number, digit or combination, expect it not just today but maybe within the next 3,4 or 5 draws.

When I started to create lottery prediction programs - not tracking etc. - the basic thought was to allow the player win more often (even smaller wins) with the hope that the player minimizes the losses. This allows the player to play more often which gives the player more opportunities hit big or bigger.

Interested in more?

Good Luck

    JAZZY JASPER's avatar - scenery water_mountains.jpg

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    Posted: November 27, 2003, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

    Hmmm... ... ...

     Some good points, I 'predict', everyday! I 'forecast', for two or three days. That's why, I say i'm, GOOD!

       Not necessarily, THE BEST!

    "It's not easy, being, GREEN! "


     

      winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
      Pennsylvania
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      Posted: November 27, 2003, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

      Nice Win D,

      I believe this guy is going shopping on "Black" Friday or was a "Saints" fan.

      Did you ever hear about the girl I dated?  She was known as a 2 bagger.  She was soso ugly she wore 2 bags in case the 1st bag broke.

      Maybe this guy is a 2 bagger or 3??

      Anywho lets get on with this discussion!!

        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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        Posted: November 28, 2003, 4:51 am - IP Logged

        WIN D... the 3 digit IS the barn, the penny's center would be the big jackpot games...

        I think that the reason most systems fail is that the initial design goal is flawed or not focused enough.

        MikeK... In the past, I have tried to use the forecasting functions in excel, but after several dozen draawings, it tends to align itself with the arithmetic mean of the numbers (average). Even in experimentation with how many draws to include, results that were positive were not repeatable. I have also tried an error-correction forecast system... take the forecast from the drawings (reverse solved for past draws) and subtract it from the actual results for that draw, this yields a table that now includes negative numbers, then, using that as source data, try to forecast the error correction number... forecasting in excel does not like negative numbers, so that was yet another failed theory (extracting next draw data from the statistics of the previous draws).

        WSLS... the bag results would be purely coincidental ;-) when guru first half-explained the lottosynch theory, I thought it was the most unique new approach in a long time, so I coded up something in VB to play with the theory (as I understood it at the time). Initially, It was a simple loop that would use the RNG to pick numbers, then compare them to the draw history and write the corresponding seed value to a text file... after running a 2,000,000,000 count test it became apparent no single seed would do the job (this is for powerball's 5 white ball combo). I converted it to the pick 3, and found that it could repeatedly match any 3 draws in history, but when just inputting the last 3, the next projected draw was always wrong.  Of course, VB's built-in RNG is no reliable source of entropy, but If it was, the results would NOT be repeatable. I have since dubbed the program "Coincidizer" because any positive result would be purely coincidence.

         

        if there is to be a first broad stroke, I think it should be a way of differentiating a false trend from a genuine trend AND determining which statistics are meaningful. In the big picture though, any system that generates more than one pick for the next draw is doing nothing more than guessing, regardless of how educated that guess may be... but if the end result is just one number to play you end up saving alot of $$$, win or lose. 

        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

          JAP69's avatar - alas
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          Posted: November 28, 2003, 6:00 am - IP Logged

           

          They have been searching for the perfect system for the lottery ever since the lotteries started and they have not found it yet. I doubt if they ever will.
          When the answer to the next drawing is unknown until the drawing any system created will have the end result of a guess.

          Type

            Littleoldlady's avatar - basket
            Clarksville
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            Posted: November 28, 2003, 6:56 am - IP Logged

            Instead of trying to hit them all, why is it not more feasible to try to hit steadily at least 4 of 7 possible draws or 3 of 7?  Also is it not more feasible to try to make a power play on one of the numbers in a vtrac? I use vtracs but I have also developed a worksheet to go with my chart which gives me all possibilities that may be presented for any draw.  The easiest scenario is of course to use 2 vtracs from the prior draw with one new, however, there are also 5 other scenarios to choose from.  The main problem for many players would be choosing the correct scenario.  For them to be successful using this approach, they would have to keep a daily log of vtracs which most people are not willing to do. So this approach may not be for the faint of heart.

            If you know your number is going to hit, have patience and then KILL IT!

            You never know when you will get another hit.

              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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              Posted: November 28, 2003, 1:56 pm - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by JAP69 on November 28, 2003



              When the answer to the next drawing is unknown until the drawing any system created will have the end result of a guess.




              exactly, so why not just have one guess? And if you're only going to play one, may as well make it as accurate and repeatable as possible...

              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.


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                Posted: November 28, 2003, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

                Hyper,

                BS meaning Boring Suggestion.

                It reminds me of a challenge that I offered quite a few years ago with the Pick 3 Book I wrote: "How to win PICK 3 lotteries?".

                It was something like this:

                "If you want to only play one number every day in your own state straight, I offer the following challenge: Pick any number you want from the 81 numbers in the Golden Rule 3 from the Book and play that number for a year in every drawing (Your choice evening or midday) of your local PICK 3 lottery. If you loose I give you half of the book price back. If you win you pay me the book price again." Assuming the lottery is played every day of the year and you hit once you win 500$ minus whatever day it is during your playing year. So you can make between $135 and $499 with an expected average of $317 which is not bad for a daily $1 bet.

                The modern version would be more like: "If you do not read books I can give you a number and if you win you can give me 1% of your winning and if you loose I give you one Dollar."

                What I want to bring over is, that if you only play one number you only have one chance and that seems kind of boring. Even if you would be successful even 2 times a year, which would give you $635 it would be very successful but not very exciting.

                So how many of you are playing only one number straight every day or how many of you want to play only one number straight every day?

                Good Luck,

                  hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                  Posted: November 28, 2003, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

                  with the exception of the test a few posts ago, I never play the pick 3... mostly because anything I have tried on paper either does not work or generates too many picks...

                  I have basically restricted my actual betting to 1 QP per drawing of the powerball until I come up with something better than what I was doing. there are a few reasons for this, first and foremost being the odds equation is NOT reduceable...

                  using the pick 3 as an example, play 1 combo straight, odds are 1:1000, play 2... odds are 2:1000, NOT 1:500 because all 1000 combos can still come out and you are not covered on 998 of them. living proof was the PA stupid 6 that went almost a year without a winner, not just because the 6/69 is outrageous (119,000,000:1), but because ticket sales slumped when PA got the powerball... even when 1,000,000 people bought tickets, they still left 118,000,000 combos uncovered.

                  Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                    Littleoldlady's avatar - basket
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                    Posted: November 29, 2003, 7:16 am - IP Logged

                    Most people that I know play the Pic 3 to make money!  It may not be a million dollars but they do make some.  Playing one number everyday for a whole year is like eating the same meal everyday for a year..it would just bore me to tears...I figure if I can reduce the vtracs to say within 3, I can still make a profit..

                    If you know your number is going to hit, have patience and then KILL IT!

                    You never know when you will get another hit.

                      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                      Posted: November 29, 2003, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                      not the same number...

                      here's the goal...

                      one formula or process (as yet unknown) that takes as input a state's drawing history and spits out one number to play for the next draw... based on the next draw's results, this would then be different for the next one...

                      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                        Posted: November 29, 2003, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

                             hyper,                     

                         1/10th. of one Per-Cent  chance huh ?

                        Can't we just try to hit a little bigger target? .......say a 1% chance first ........and then work our way up to a one tenth of one per cent  chance later?

                         

                          Boy hyper ....you are strict.   Tough way to begin. Getting a 1% ...10 number group is.... serious good pickin ..... can't we try 1% first?

                         I could make a very good living on just a 2% 

                         I could support my wife on 1%.... 

                         She keeps wanting that 1/10th per cent as well .....she's strict too. LOL   


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                          Posted: November 29, 2003, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

                          But, but hyper....

                            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                            Posted: November 30, 2003, 9:15 am - IP Logged

                            you don't have to limit yourself to playing numbers from just one system... there's no harm in working on a system that generates just one pick to complement the numbers you already play, right?

                            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                              WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                              Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                              Posted: November 30, 2003, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

                              hyper,

                               Thats a goal that that everyone has tried in their own way. Some have made attempts that were serious.... and some not. The general conclusion after awhile is they can't do it, or its not possible. The test of a good set of random numbers is how far away it stays from any sort of logic or statistical regularity. So its hard to think about nothing. No one can do it. 

                                If this were a man made code.... or even a Martin code... or even an animal language code, I would say go for it. If there were any sort of logic or even an animal instinct behind these numbers, I'd say go for it. Even it had a goal or a programed genetic direction , like an unthinking bacteria ....I'd say go for it.  If I'm wrong and these numbers are coming from a 5th. dimension and follow that pattern......we aren't there yet. We will have to solve that first.


                               This is not to say you can't learn a lot of useful things while you are on your quest......it was good for me. LOL We all end up having to live with things like "most of the time,"  "chances are," and "luck".

                               The best we can look forward to at the present is something with a very high PROBABLITY

                              p.s. The only thing I can't seem to get out of my mind is "the law of large numbers' and equal distribution. It's a mystery to me how random numbers always find their place equally .....over time.  Why?

                                       

                               

                               

                              The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                            Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                            Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                     Win d    

                                 
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