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Open Discussion: Define/Refine Prediction

Topic closed. 353 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Blackapple.

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hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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Posted: November 30, 2003, 1:23 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on November 30, 2003



The general conclusion after awhile is they can't do it, or its not possible. 







ok, then say we go for 10 numbers, this still leaves 990 combos uncovered and now a miss costs 10x as much... Like I mentioned earlier, it's not like we're trying to get everyone to play just one number, only for this particular attempt at an open-source system.

people spend $$$ on systems all the time that don't work with any regularity, I'm talking about attempting something free for all, created by everyone... If it can't be done, then so be it, but that alone is not reason enough not to try, PLUS, we haven't all worked together here on any one thing that I can recall, perhaps enough people have pieces of the puzzle that when brought into the open, can be combined and manipulated into something that works for everyone.

let's start with selection processes (even if you pick more than one, HOW do you do it?) I have already explained my double announcer system (which doesn't work BTW, it doesn't HAVE to work to post it, just let us know HOW you pick even if you  aren't getting the desired results)

Another system I have been toying with is using the MODE of a column (most frequently occurring number). The MODE for the history, when taken as a combo doesn't come up as much as you would expect, so take it to the next level by determining for each mode, what numbers are most frequently drawn in the other 2 positions with it (Excel rocks for this). Again, no consistent winners and you end up with 3 numbers to play (this one I have only tracked, not actually played)

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

    JAP69's avatar - alas
    South Carolina
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    Posted: November 30, 2003, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

    let's start with selection processes (even if you pick more than one, HOW do you do it?) I have already explained my double announcer system (which doesn't work BTW, it doesn't HAVE to work to post it, just let us know HOW you pick even if you  aren't getting the desired results)





    I have posted here many of my systems for selecting numbers.
    I do not want to repost them as some are lenghty posts.
    If you can get good at picking the numbers from the 220 box combinations and hit regulary with just a very few selections or one there would be no need to search for the perfect straight system. Just combo them.

    MAGA

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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      Posted: November 30, 2003, 2:10 pm - IP Logged

        I'm with you on the idea of collective ideas and different methods being investigated for repeatable success. Most folks don't want to be that open about their methods.....heck I don't mind. My system is pretty plain. I use the the math averages on the different groups and try to catch them at the high end of the their records. I try to filter the particular numbers of that group based on short term and long term hit history of the numbers within that group. Timing is influenced by other factors such as current number patterns such as a recent build up of odd/even ...high/ low etc  and look for common denominators that fit the upcoming group hit.  This is a "Trap System"   

        In a nutshell.... I track different groups and try to catch them being bad or exceeding their math averages in the extreme. That's the math part. The only word I can come up with on the final selection is feel. Feel is a hard thing to describe because I do think there is some logical process going on .....but I can't describe it. 

       The other basic system I use is the " hunter system", where you try to catch the numbers doing their "normal thing" and hope you are not too early. Sometimes they fall pretty as a picture.
               

       Hyper....wish you would describe this some more ....sounds interesting.

      Another system I have been toying with is using the MODE of a column (most frequently occurring number). The MODE for the history, when taken as a combo doesn't come up as much as you would expect, so take it to the next level by determining for each mode, what numbers are most frequently drawn in the other 2 positions with it (Excel rocks for this). Again, no consistent winners and you end up with 3 numbers to play (this one I have only tracked, not actually played)

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        JAP69's avatar - alas
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        Posted: November 30, 2003, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

        This is one system I use to track the box order combos. I have used it for years and it has proven to treat me well over those years. Just watch for a run to come on the 2nd or 3rd digit in the column



        __july_________aug________sept_________oct_________nov
        __134-07/02m__177-08/02m__113-09/02m__133-10/04m__157-11/13m
        __169-07/04m__133-08/03e__126-09/03e__134-10/06e__117-11/16e
        __125-07/04e__125-08/07m__146-09/07e__124-10/07e__127-11/17m
        __148-07/05m__139-08/09m__145-09/10m__179-10/08m__138-11/17e
        __139-07/09m__115-08/09e__117-09/16e__148-10/13e__167-11/18e
        __149-07/12e__124-08/11m__158-09/19m__156-10/18m__158-11/20m
        __166-07/13e__168-08/13e__147-09/19e__147-10/18e__178-11/22m
        __157-07/14e__133-08/16e__149-09/22e__127-10/19e__118-11/29e
        __117-07/21m__169-08/19m__115-09/25e__127-10/28e
        __179-07/21e__124-08/21m______________137-10/29m
        __129-07/25m__137-08/22e______________119-10/31e
        __138-07/30e__133-08/29e

        _______________________________

        MAGA

          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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          Posted: November 30, 2003, 2:30 pm - IP Logged
          Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on November 30, 2003



                 

           Hyper....wish you would describe this some more ....sounds interesting.





          ok, start off with your entire history in columns (1st ball, 2nd ball, 3rd ball)

          beneath the list, I put the excel formula

          =MODE(A2:A9100)  ' for example... A2 because of the header row and 9100 represents the end of the history list

          now just autofill left and you have the mode for each position. I keep the number side by side in 2 formats, one is each number in position (eg A2=5, B2=6, C2=1) then the D column is the resultant combo (561) for later filtering or testing. You will notew that the combo identified by the MODE is NOT the mode of the D column (simply autofill again to see that one where you put the mode formula).

          next step is to employ the advanced filter, you want only results that contain the column 1 mode number (if it's 1 then all in the results will start with 1). Place this in columns F G H and I. THen run the mode formula again under the new columns. Column I contains the mode of the resultant combos. If this number is the same as the individual numbers in columns F thru H, stop and use that, if not, then find out whether the number in column 2 or 3 is more frequent... if column#2 mode is 5, then try

          =COUNTIF(G2:G500, "=5") ' this assumes the resultant set is smaller, 500 is just for example

          do the same for the mode number in the 3rd column, the one with the higher frequency wins, do another advanced format to columns K L M and O, this time only for drawings that contain the 1st number and Second number mode. This leaves you with the need to run the MODE again on the results to determine the last number.

          In the end you are left with ONE number that represents the MOST Frequently drawn number in one position AND the most frequent numbers that are drawn with it. Of course you must repeat this for each of the original mode numbers (in their respective positions) and you end up with 3 picks.

          At this point, you can do an auto-filter on the entire list of column D to look for those combos to get an idea of how many times they were drawn and (if you include 2 columns for draw# and date) how far apart they occur.

          I have yet to finish this with the PA Daily number, but I had a massive cash 5 file that bore no good results. I'll be crunching the PA numbers sometime tomorrow after updating the draws for tonight. I'll post them before tomorrow's draw.

          note that if any of the MODE numbers change, the end results need to be re-calculated. I did this with the Cash5 by hand, need to check the counts also using a countif for 1 thru 9 in each position. if 2 are the same, excel arbitrarily chooses one, but if 2 numbers are equal then you might want to generate a pick for each case.

          Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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            Posted: November 30, 2003, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

            the flaw to the MODE approach is that it is not a reactive picking mechanism, it does change, but only when the mode changes, if you reverse solve in 3 separate columns

            =MODE($A$2:$A9100) 'use the $ for absolute addressing, then when you autofill up, the last number will decrease, giving a MODE list over time. You can see how the mode changes but not very frequently.

            I have tried also using a variety of stat "picks", Average(arithmetic mean) / Median / Average Deviation / Standard Deviation (both Sample and for the entire Population) / Geometric Mean / Harmonic Mean... each for the prior draw history, then I would subtract the stat "guess from the actual results and use them as an error correction guide (not to any great success).

            Again, everything I have so far was failed attempts at the powerball. I still keep all of the stats for Powerball / Stupid 6 / Cash 5 / Big 4 (MIDDAY and EVE) / Daily Number (MIDDAY and EVE), but thanks to autofill it's easy ;-) just insert a row at the end and add the results then fill down.

            I know there is a formula that converts a date to (Monday, Tuesday etc...) for excel, but I can't remember it. I would like to apply that to the 3 digit... One thing I got out of the powerball research was that separating by wednesdays and Saturdays, Wednesday draws had more patterns, be they true or false.

            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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              Posted: December 1, 2003, 9:40 am - IP Logged

              As promised, the results of the MODE system on the PA daily number EVENING drawings...

              Most frequently drawn COMBO = 2-9-3 (total of 18x, last 11/16/2002)

              Most frequent number BY COLUMN = 1(1st)      8(2nd)      6(3rd)

              with 1 in position 1, most recurring combo is 1-8-0 (total of 15x, last 1/22/02)

              with 8 in position 2, most recurring combo is 1-8-9 (total of 15x, last 1/25/03)

              with 6 in position 3, most recurring combo is 0-6-6 (total of 15x, last 4/27/98)

              this is out of 9,119 drawings since 1977... MikeK, the average of the PA lottery's best combo is once every 507 draws... not 183... the 1k per day would end up costing $507,000 to win 500,000... a 7k loss.

              "You've got a friend in Pennsylvania"... but they DON'T work at lottery headquarters ;-)

              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                Posted: December 1, 2003, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

                jazzy agree with you 100%.



                this is not a hard game (cash3). too much info and tracking does not guarantee more hits.



                i keep a calender - do my two week pairs and do quite well.

                love to nibble those micey feet.

                 

                                             

                  hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                  Posted: December 1, 2003, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

                  Simple is good, got an example?

                  Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                    emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                    Posted: December 1, 2003, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                    i did - above.



                    love to nibble those micey feet.

                     

                                                 

                      emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                      Posted: December 1, 2003, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

                      p.s. love the occupation you listed - i'll take your dog anytime.

                      love to nibble those micey feet.

                       

                                                   

                        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                        Posted: December 1, 2003, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

                        LOL @ occupation.

                        BTW I currently have 9 Shih Tzu (6 puppies), that's 3 dogs per kid... I'm amazed I find time to concentrate on anything.

                        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                          fbird's avatar - nw archer.jpg
                          White Lake,Mi
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                          Posted: December 2, 2003, 4:40 am - IP Logged

                          O.K.

                          I see there are some pretty bright people in this forum and I am not totally embarassed to say that I don't totally understand some of the math you are talking about but.. there are some other areas that need to be looked at. For instance, I live in Michigan and about 60% of the time one of the numbers from the previous nights drawing falls the next drawing.Also, overdue pairs hit frequently. But then again I watch for the "hot" numbers. Sometimes you have to watch the trends. Like right now the pair 66 is way overdue and last night ( I play evening only) 687 fell, so for tonight I would play 666,668(wheeled) and 667(wheeled). Just some info to share that sometimes works for me. At least there is some great discussions on this subject. With more input we may at least make this a more profitable as well as fun game.keep it going.

                          your pal,

                          VAL

                          VAL

                          Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me: I may not follow.

                          Just walk beside me and be my friend.

                                    Albert Camus

                            emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                            Posted: December 2, 2003, 9:28 am - IP Logged

                            and ga. evening -- digits repeat from past 3 draws and from 7 days up.

                            love to nibble those micey feet.

                             

                                                         

                              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                              Posted: December 2, 2003, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                              Something along the lines of "Simple" and also as an added bonus, there are no complex formulas...

                              This is a simple observation of the last 13 drawings of the PA evening 3-digit number

                              660
                              048
                              042  <<<<<Sunday's 0 & 4
                              947  <<<Last Night's 9 & 4 + Sunday's 9
                              539  <<<Last Night's 5 + tonight's theoretical 5 & 3
                              401  <<< Tonight's theoretical 4
                              239
                              273
                              169
                              637
                              258
                              409  <<<< Sunday's Number  (("system" called a BOX hit))
                              945  <<<< Last Night's Number (("system" called a STRAIGHT hit))

                               

                              go back 9 draws take the first two numbers, THEN go to the 8th draw and

                              take the FIRST number...  9First + 9Second + 8First = the PiCk

                              tonight's pick?
                              5-3-4 ... let's see how it goes @ 7pm (I didn't play it, so right there it's chances increase!)

                              As you can see, the "system" was totally wrong on the 660 and 040 picks for nights where 637 and 258 were drawn, so there ARE no guarantees, but it IS a system, regardless how frivelous it seems, and I DID explain it step-by-step... so what are YOU using? If you track evens/odds/last 2 weeks... exactly HOW do you do it?

                              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                                 
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