Mega Millions sets world record with $1.6 billion lottery jackpot for Tuesday drawing

I hear what you're saying, the annuity is (estimated to be) a world record. I guess one might say, "it is a world record jackpot estimate." lol... It needs to hit roughly $1.75B before the CV catches the world record.

CHARLIEO123:   google "Megamillions Jackpot" and click on the Washington Post article.  It says 57% of combinations were covered yesterday. 

Article link.

Thanks for the help now I know how to find this information.

It is fun to think about the absurdity of being able to spend $247,000 a week for 50 years, but this is when the "How much is too much?" increase of the odds becomes apparent. If there is no winner at the $1 billion maximum ticket buying frenzy level, if 43% of combinations were not covered even at $1 billion, that says to me that the combinations covered probably won't go above 75% even if the jackpot is $2 billion. The winning number could go unplayed for months and hit $10 billion dollars. That could be the unintended consequence of designing the odds to get to a $1 billion jackpot. 

SFO =  Single Family Office

MFO =  Multi Family Office

Both manage the money and investments of ultra high networth families, but the bill for all the services in a SFO is footed one family whereas with a MFO, the expenses are shared between different uber-wealthy families. 

The old rule used to be that if you needed to have the SFO manage at least $100 million in investable assets for the SFO to be cost effective but that's been shown to be incorrect because secondary income sources and # of family members is also a factor. 

What happened was that when it came to generational wealth and/or wealth intricately tied to a business, the family office blurred lines with the home office. These new SFOs don't only handle the investment side of the family's money, but the personal side as well. 

Anything that could be a liability to the family is usually managed by the family office. Anything that is needed to retain or increase the value of the family's assets is usually managed and budgeted by the SFO. As you can imagine, that basically covers everything. 

They vet contractors, run background checks on dates, coordinate travel arrangements, manage the family's charitable foundations, make sure the security detail is adequate. They make sure the private jet is serviced, the vehicles are registered, that all personal property is recorded and insured and that the pets have all their shots. If the pilots are required to have physicals and recert training, the SFO makes sure it's done.

Non-contracted hires who work in the homes of the family members are usually interviewed, vetted, hired and paid by the family office. They are not the employees of the family member. They are employees of the family office. Even though they're working directly for the family member(s). This helps to reduce personal liability issues. 

The SFO will also generally take care of most/all the family's expenses. From dry cleaning to the utility bill to the credit card bill, the SFO budgets and pays for it all.

The cost of a SFO is usually a percentage of the total wealth being managed. Which is why if the family isn't large enough, wealthy enough and busy enough to fully utilize the services of the SFOs, then it's simply a waste of money. 

The article never said how they got the 53%. With 280 million tickets sold that couldn't be what they used for calculations. Just guessing but maybe 2 of the 15 five number matches were duplicates and that's what they used.

Most of the lottery websites give a 1 in 24 chance of a MM ticket winning anything, but that's playing fast and loose with the term "winning". Last night 8,279,174 tickets matched only the bonus number getting back the $2 ticket price. Would it be more accurate to say "there is a 1 in 24 chance your ticket won't lose money"?

Thank you for clarifying.  This is great information.

What is "absurd" is how easy it would be to spend $247,001 a week, if you fall into a certain type of lifestyle. Billionaire level security, estate maintenance, staff, etc... Even though you can technically afford to purchase a $70M jet with cash, it still costs upwards of $5M per year to operate it, plus the not inconsequential cost of av-gas, which can cost tens of thousands per flight. It doesn't matter if you earn $247 per week, or $247,000 per week, you still need to keep tight reigns on your budget or you'll find yourself in a different kind of "jackpot".

But, to your point, I've been sort of curious about that myself. At what point would ticket sales slow down if nobody wins this jackpot? What if it rolls after Tuesday night? Say it rolls to $2.5B? Will lottery fatigue kick in simply because the jackpot seems unreal and unobtainable?

If you win, I suggest NetJets or WheelsUp for transportation!  Live the Life Amigo!

I thought last night that there were no winners when it took so long to announce the winners. And they were trying to think of a way to spin it. How long are people going to buy tickets for a jackpot that can't be won?  They may get a ticket or two but not big ticket buys.  It's just a waste of money to play a game no one can win.

Yes! Especially after they just spent too much on tickets that didn't even come close... It proves the futility of buying more than one ticket at a time, regardless of the size of the jackpot.

According to <snip> :

Total Tickets (Sets of Numbers) Sold: 280,217,678
Total Combinations in Game: 302,575,350 = 92.8%

Someone said 59% sold. That means multiple same numbers were sold.

In a side note, I have a question to all lottery players here:

What is the first thing you will do after collecting the prize?

me:

Donate 10% pre-tax to charities...

you?

I'd disappear for a year.

Estimates for 10/23 drawing:

• ≈450MM tickets sold
• ≈216MM duplicate tickets
• ≈52% chance of one winner
• ≈22.6% chance of rollover

The formula for estimating the number of duplicate tickets sold is as follows:

(total tickets sold)-((total combinations)*(coverage))

coverage = 1-((e^(-lambda)*(lambda⁰))/0!)
lambda = (total tickets sold)/(total combinations)

Sidenote: using this formula (which assumes all random picks), and the actual sales for 10/19, the number of unique combinations estimated to be sold was actually ≈10MM more than the actual 57% quoted by The Washington Post. I believe fewer unique combinations were sold due to self-picks, so if we take this to apply to the new drawing as well then the chance of rollover should be slightly higher than estimated.