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what does a prediction formula look like?

Topic closed. 100 replies. Last post 11 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

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hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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Posted: January 19, 2006, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

this was just my spin on one component of neural nets (weighted inputs)...

this is what I am looking for.. the concepts behind prediction in general,then I can figure out if (and how) theycould blend into excel or maybe one of the other office tools or programming languages I have available (access/C#.net/VB.net/C++/java)

I'm first trying to nail down a concrete definition and series of steps for general prediction (doesn't need to be lottery, could come from stock analysis, risk management, weather prediction, image recognition etc...)

I'm dropping all further development on all of my systems until I get the basics down.

in a nutshell

2-4-6-8-10-12-?

I don't care yet about the 14, I am far more interested in the steps required to arrive at ANY answer.

there are a great deal of posts where people advise to spot trends... they even throw in the occasional example but not one has ever been able to define a trend... to say, "this is what you need to have in your data to constitute a genuine trend"... or "this is a pattern, here is what you need to identify a pattern".... I think everyone would benefit from having such a resource, regardless of their system(s). As developers, we're all looking for answers but we're not asking the proper fundamental question(s)...yet.

 

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

    paurths's avatar - underground
    Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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    Posted: January 19, 2006, 8:54 pm - IP Logged

    Without a fingerprint, one can not identify.
    Patterns all over the place, but only when they have been, never when they are to arrive... a fingerprint...

      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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      Posted: January 19, 2006, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

      a fingerprint after the fact... a profile beforehand...

      fingerprinting requires matching a number of points based on some geometric pattern-matching algorithm against pre-existing patterns on file

      profiling (or predicting) requires the use of a series of indicators (the more reliable the indicators, the more accurate the profile)

      question is, what is a reliable indicator? how many are needed?

      S-?-S-MT

      pattern? sure it is, the ?=P

      the pattern expanded would be Salt,Pepper,Sugar,Meat Tenderizer

      makes sense to me since that is the arrangement on my kitchen countertop... if someone else doesn't recognize it, is it any less of a pattern? Known patterns identify a fingerprint match, all fingerprints have points of interest, but if not on file... no match

      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

        time*treat's avatar - radar

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        Posted: January 19, 2006, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

        "Profiles" are based on indicators that have proven to be reliable in the past. Patterns that are not recognized by others are no less valid, only less recognized and therefore provide more opportunity for profit. Whether it's lotteries or stock markets (and there are many similarities), there are plenty of patterns occurring all at once. People see these and develop systems based on them.

        If people all use the same pattern/system, there is much less profit. If one person tries to use them all, there is much less profit for him. There is a saying in the stock market ~ "Bulls get rich & bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered."

        As far as how many reliable indicators are needed, there is no "magic" number. And too many (filters) can be worse than too few. Bleach, ammonia, and lemon juice are great for cleaning. They should not be mixed in any combination. Pick one.

        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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          Posted: January 20, 2006, 11:36 am - IP Logged

          Seems like the general answer to the question "What does a prediction formula look like?" is "I can't describe it, but I'll know it if I ever see it."  Good luck on your search.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            powerplayer's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

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            Posted: January 20, 2006, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

            back to the core of development, what is a prediction algorithm? what does it look like? what are the steps needed to look at a list of numbers and try to extrapolate the next draw?

            there must be something outside of the realm of lottery that can be tried...

            links to sourcecode/math texts appreciated

            I'm on the look out for one also there buddy.

            Here I found this today:

          • You can create a formula that generates a pseudo-random number. When designing the formula, the idea is for it to produce a string of numbers that would look random to anyone who did not know what the formula is. Characteristics of a good formula include:
            • No repetition: The sequence does not cycle around and repeat itself.
            • Good numeric distribution: If the formula is producing random numbers between 0 and 9, the number of zeros, ones, twos, etc. that it produces should be roughly equal over a long period of time.
            • Lack of predictability: You have no way to predict what the next number will be unless you know the formula and the seed (the initial value).
          • int rand()  {   random_seed = random_seed * 1103515245 +12345;    return (unsigned int)(random_seed / 65536) % 32768;  } 
            it's in C prgramming 

            This formula assumes the existence of a variable called random_seed, which is initially set to some number. The random_seed variable is multiplied by 1,103,515,245 and then 12,345 gets added to the product; random_seed is then replaced by this new value. This is actually a pretty good pseudo-random number generator. It has a good distribution and it is non-repeating. If you use it to produce random numbers between 0 and 9, here are the first 20 values that it produces if the seed is 10:

            4 4 6 0 7 4 2 3 5 0 5 6 6 4 5 6 7 6 7 4 

             

            If you have it produce 10,000 values between 0 and 9, here's the distribution:

            0 - 1015 1 - 1024 2 - 1048 3 - 996 4 - 988 5 - 1001 6 - 996 7 - 1006 8 - 965 9 - 961 

             

            Any pseudo-random number formula depends on the seed value to start the sequence. If you start with the same seed, you will get the same sequence of values from the formula. So if you give the rand() function shown above the seed of 10 on one computer and look at the stream of numbers it produces, it will be identical to the stream of numbers produced on any computer that runs it with a seed of 10. In the case of the GPS this reproducibility is used as a way to give each satellite a predictable but different pattern of values that the GPS receiver can track.

            To create a random and unpredictable sequence, the seed must be a truly random number. To get this truly random number for the seed, most programs use the current date and time, converted to an integer value (for example, converted to the number of seconds that have elapsed since January 1, 1970). Since this is a different number every time you start the program, it makes a good seed.

             

             

            The code is on the site. PM me if anyone wants it.

             

            Hope this helps

             

            PP

            Good luck to everyone!!!

              time*treat's avatar - radar

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              Posted: January 20, 2006, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

              The original question implies there is only one answer. If someone asked you what chart pattern was an indicator for a future winning stock, how would you answer? Some prefer double-bottoms, others swear by the cup-and-handle. And still others would give you an intro to fibonacci retracement levels. All of these have worked often enough to have entire books devoted to them. It is not possible for a chart to show all three at once. So an indicator can look like almost anything, but it cannot look like everything. If you wanted to clean up a house, do you start in the dirtiest room? the kitchen? or the bath? Is there a "best" room to start in?

               

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                Posted: January 20, 2006, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

                not an answer, but a process... the answers would be different for each dataset, but ideally, a method would exist that defines the sequence of steps one would follow to go about solving it.... not so important right now about WHAT the winning numbers are, just HOW a pick was arrived at.

                some of the work that goes on here follows the classic "scientific method"

                1. gather data                  (grab draw data from state website or LP or other source)

                2. form hypotheses            (try an idea like counting skips or transforming to v-track mirrors)

                3. test hypotheses            (backtest results against draw history) 

                #2 is the gray area we need more work on... a properly formed hypothesis can easily be backtested, because it would result in one pick (v-trac mirror for example, one and only one value for each mirror number)

                Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                  truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                  Posted: January 20, 2006, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

                  Soniq 

                  Came across this, have to admit I didn't read all the details but you might find it interesting:

                  http://www.ideaflow.com/ideagen.htm

                    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                    Posted: January 21, 2006, 12:35 am - IP Logged

                    thanks for the link!

                    several interesting sections, my favorite so far is

                    Backward Mapping  Also known as Backcasting and Working Backwards. This highly effective method is missing from most textbooks on problem solving, change, innovation and development. You imagine that the future has arrived and the problem has been solved or the outcome has been achieved. Then you look back at the significant steps you took to arrive there. There are three main ways of doing this: (1) in your imagination, (2) on a large sheet of paper, and (3) by walking an imaginary 'timeline' on the floor, representing your past, present and future. (Timeline work forms part of Neuro Linguistic Programming).

                    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                      johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                      Posted: January 21, 2006, 5:03 am - IP Logged

                      thanks for the link!

                      several interesting sections, my favorite so far is

                      Backward Mapping  Also known as Backcasting and Working Backwards. This highly effective method is missing from most textbooks on problem solving, change, innovation and development. You imagine that the future has arrived and the problem has been solved or the outcome has been achieved. Then you look back at the significant steps you took to arrive there. There are three main ways of doing this: (1) in your imagination, (2) on a large sheet of paper, and (3) by walking an imaginary 'timeline' on the floor, representing your past, present and future. (Timeline work forms part of Neuro Linguistic Programming).

                      Not unlike reverse engineering, where a product is torn down to discover how it became what it was. I've used this method in webpage coding and spreadsheets.

                      gl

                      j

                      Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                      Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                       =^.^=

                        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                        Posted: January 21, 2006, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

                        that's also how I learned html, with the best click on internet explorer... "view source" ;-)

                        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                          Sandy K's avatar - graphic pub.jpg
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                          Posted: January 22, 2006, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

                          what does a prediction formula look like?

                          The question lots of us asks ourselves. You can step up to the drawingstable, get pen and paper and just stare at the wall. No formula there.
                          "This number follows that number", "use these groups to get hits from that group", "track the double return warning",  "throw 3 darts at your screen", "if it's raining play this, if the sun shines play that unless it's snowing in Key West", etc. etc. etc. ... there are plenty of "systems", and some people seem to have success with them, so that's good for them.

                          The posts where the winnings are in big are all over the forum, so i guess there must be more systems then there are numbers. It seems everybody is making truckloads of money... whenever some number hits.

                          So, i for one have no idea what a prediction formula look like, i'm not amongst the truckloads-winners, but it seems to me that there are plenty of people here that do know. All you/we have to do now is sit and wait, until they come forward and type the formula down in this thread.

                          Good thread, hypersoniq, just like the other one in "lottery systems". Your work is highly appreciated!

                          Cheers,
                          Ricky

                          Ricky, people talk and some people believe them.  I don't believe anyone on this forum makes a living on the lottery.  Why?  Because no one posts consistent wins on the prediction board for one.  Second, they haven't proved it.

                          I should have been from Missouri, the "show me state" because like I said in another forum....I made a $100,000 profit last year?  You gonna believe me?  Some people would........I can say anything I want on here and I bet half the people would take it "as is".......the point being is those people who talk big I don't think are winning as much as they say they are......otherwise they would be "proving" it with a copy and paste (and don't say your computer can't do it...because that is B.S....one person did actually say that)....OR they would be posting on the prediction board and winning with STRAIGHTS, not the boxes most people win on consistently.  Look at my signature...."Liars are losers." 

                          Sandy

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: January 23, 2006, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                            According to Ion Saliu's website, www.saliu.com/reverse-strategy.html ,he has reverse engineered some winning strategies and formulas and his results and software can be download from his site.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              time*treat's avatar - radar

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                              Posted: January 24, 2006, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

                              One can spend a few days Twitchlooking at saliu's stuff. I've picked up an idea or two from him, but I prefer to write my own actual code.

                              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.