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what does a prediction formula look like?

Topic closed. 100 replies. Last post 11 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: March 10, 2006, 11:32 am - IP Logged

Using my MegaMillion data I set up my RNG program to use a target combination that was actual drawn and use all the previous drawings to try and predict it. At best I matched three within 5% of expected randomness but many test did worst because of the parameters I used, those parameters actually eliminated combinations that matched three.  Combinations  that matched four seldom came up. 

Until I added this test feature to my program I thought I was doing better than random expectation.  I guess in the past when I've had a winning ticket it was just my turn to get lucky.  I will continue working on strategies to pick my own numbers because it's entertaining.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    Posted: March 11, 2006, 10:16 am - IP Logged

    Chaos Theory using Strange Attractors is probably the only approach to any successful prediction of lottery numbers.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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      Posted: March 11, 2006, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

      Chaos Theory using Strange Attractors is probably the only approach to any successful prediction of lottery numbers.

      Can any of that be put in a lottery prediction formula or program?  When hypersoniq asked "what does a prediction formula look like?", he was looking for some sourcecode/math,... the concepts behind prediction in general that could be used to predict the most likely set of numbers to come up in the next drawing.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
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        LottoFan's avatar - nw sorc2.jpg
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        Posted: March 15, 2006, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

        When I begin to tinker with my prediction formulas, the first thing I do is try to visualize the desired end result(s).  For me, I have to have an idea of what I want the formula to do.  Without that, I am just plugging numbers blindly.  I am currently testing three different prediction formulas, and making adjustments with every drawing.... probably not the best way to do it, but I remain open to other ideas!

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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          Posted: March 17, 2006, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

          When I tinker or test my programs, I test them using previous drawings because I know the results and then I conclude that I'm not there yet.  I'm looking for a $20-$30 system that would have matched most of the core numbers several times and all of them at least twice in the last year.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
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            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: March 25, 2006, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

            FILE NAME  REC.NO.    DATE        NUMBERS            MATCH
             MEGAMILL  1        03/24/06  01 02 17 47 49    +19 
            ______________________________________________________________
             MEGAMILL  1      03/21/06  04 16 17 28 31    +08    1*
                        1 ----------------------------------------
                      4      03/10/06  04 17 18 51 54    +31    1
                      7      02/28/06  02 04 35 36 48    +22    1*
                        2 ----------------------------------------
                      11    4  02/14/06  27 36 43 49 54    +33    1*
                        3 ----------------------------------------
                      13    5  02/07/06  02 16 25 30 48    +26    1
                      15    6  01/31/06  01 35 53 54 56    +44    1*
                        4 ----------------------------------------
                      16    7  01/27/06  02 07 08 18 29    +46    1
                       25    8  12/27/05  11 24 27 49 55    +23    1
                      26    9  12/23/05  10 37 39 49 54    +08    1
                      33    10  11/29/05  07 08 47 51 52    +05    1*
                        5 ----------------------------------------
                                1/ 1    7/ 3  11/ 4  15/ 6  33/10

            The above shows how I've been analyzing lottery drawings with numbers from previous drawings.  Shown are the five numbers in last night's MegaMillion drawing which were in the last 33 drawings and drawn a total of ten times.  50% of the time all five numbers are in the previous 15 drawings and drawn no more than ten times.  90% of the time winning combination will have one of two numbers from the previous six drawings.  Such information will be helpful in developing parameters to make better picks for future drawings.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
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              LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
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              Posted: March 25, 2006, 8:08 pm - IP Logged

              Hi RJOh,

              I really enjoy your statistical analysis postings when I come across them.
              Keep up the great work!

              Just curious - Why do you use the last 33 drawings for your analysis?
              Is it just a random selection or are you basing the analysis on 10 occurrences?

              Thanks in advance if you choose to respond to my curiosity question.

              LL

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: March 25, 2006, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

                Hello LottoL,

                I don't use 33 drawings, it just that for that drawing #7 hadn't come up in 33 drawings.  All the numbers in Wednesday drawing came up in the previous 9 drawings.  As I said in my post, 50% of the time all the numbers in winning combinations have come up in the 15 previous drawings or less.  For my pool of numbers I usually look back 15 or less drawings knowing that 50% of the time all five numbers will not be in it.  I don't usually play all 56 numbers. 

                That is just one of the tools in the program I use to analyze previous drawings.  I continue to add features to it as I come up with them.  I'm trying to find the most common parameters that cover the  winning numbers 20%-30% of the time.  It's just one more way to look at previous drawings when picking combinations to play.  It also give you an idea of density of the numbers from the winning combinations, a density of 10 is popular regardless of the number of drawings.

                RJOh

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
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                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: March 26, 2006, 12:42 am - IP Logged

                  Sorry,

                  In my last two posts the #7 should be #47 and #47 should be red in the statistical analysis.

                  RJOh

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
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                    LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
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                    Posted: March 26, 2006, 6:10 am - IP Logged

                     

                    Thanks for your response RJOh!

                    I run a similar analysis as yours based on an as drawn analysis.
                    I understand now.  # 47 hadn't been hit in 33 draws.  I guess
                    this means that your kind of giving up on the number # 13, which
                    hadn't been hit in 54 draws.  I guess when #13 gets hit, things
                    will come back into a more "normal" perspective.

                    Thanks again!

                    LL   

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: March 26, 2006, 10:01 am - IP Logged

                      The shortest period that have included all 56 numbers is 29 drawings, so if you consider fewer than the last 29 drawings for picking numbers to play, some numbers will alway be excluded.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
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                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: March 29, 2006, 11:03 am - IP Logged

                        FILE NAME  REC.NO.    DATE            NUMBERS                    MATCH
                          MEGAMILL  1            03/28/06    14 18 35 39 49    +14 
                         ______________________________________________________________
                          MEGAMILL  1    1      03/24/06    01 02 17 47 49    +19        1*
                                        1 ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                            5        03/10/06    04 17 18 51 54    +31        1*
                                        2 ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                            7    3     03/03/06    25 29 38 39 46    +04        1*
                                        3 ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                            8        02/28/06    02 04 35 36 48    +22        1*
                                        4 ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                            10        02/21/06    14 23 27 36 45    +36        1*
                                        5 ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              1/ 1    5/ 2    7/ 3    8/ 4  10/ 5

                        The above shows how I've been analyzing lottery drawings with numbers from previous drawings.  Shown are the 5 numbers in last night's MegaMillion drawing which were in the last 10 drawings and drawn a total of five times.  This is the kinds of drawings I anticipate and play for, but the best I could do last night was 3+0 in 30 lines, so I guess I've look for more conditions to play for. 

                         

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
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                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: March 29, 2006, 11:23 am - IP Logged

                          I reran my RNG to pick 500 lines for the same conditions and didn't do much better.
                          0+1=3
                          1+1=8
                          2+1=2
                          3+0=8
                          Playing more lines wouldn't have helped, I need to analyze better.

                          RJOh

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
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                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: March 31, 2006, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

                            I'm going to pick some more combinations that look the same when compared to the data as Wednesday's numbers and hope I do better this time.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
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                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                              Posted: April 1, 2006, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

                              I didn't do so good last night. I guess I'll just have to wait for another drawings where all 5 numbers hit only once in the previous drawings before any hit twice.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
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