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what does a prediction formula look like?

Topic closed. 100 replies. Last post 11 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: January 25, 2006, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

time*treat,

I agree, I understand the code that I write and can make changes.  I'm not locked into using strategies of someone else that I don't understand especially if they don't work.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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    Posted: January 28, 2006, 12:19 am - IP Logged

    2-4-6-8-A-?-E

    10-100-?-1000-1010-1100-1110

    2-4-6-8-12-?-16

    2-4-?-8-10-12-14

     

    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

      time*treat's avatar - radar

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      Posted: January 31, 2006, 12:58 am - IP Logged

      RJOh,
      The best thing IMO about using your own systems is that you are less likely to split the pot when you win. If you came up with a method that hit near the 1st of every month, common sense would say that with a little alteration, it could hit in the 2nd or 3rd week. A few industrious souls would look for those alterations (getting their own pot, and not splitting yours), but many would just sit and demand for you to post near the 1st.  Too many people are happy to ride the efforts of others. They would take 1/20 of a jackpot with no effort, rather than 1/2 jackpot with their own work. Makes some hold back on really good ideas.

      Hyper,
      I think winning system(s) may be a little less linear. Also your (final) formula will be affected by such things as max drawdown considerations, max allowable cold streaks, etc. Someone with a big bankroll can play more loose systems than someone without. I am sure that many have backtested something that was very profitable but would cost hundreds or thousands to play and had huge drawdown periods.

       

      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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        Canada
        Member #2352
        September 19, 2003
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        Posted: January 31, 2006, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

        If you want to improve the Random Number capability of Excel or VB, download the Zrandom generator. Although tailored for Excel, it will work in VB if you add a reference to the ZRandom COM component.

        It is based on  The Mersenne
        Twister (one of the better PRNGs) - apparently has a period of 2^19937-1.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: February 1, 2006, 6:20 pm - IP Logged

          time*treat,

          I don't mind splitting the pot with others, it's just that if I'm the one losing money playing the lotteries I prefer to do it my own way.  Since I mostly play jackpot games, I don't expect to hit the big prize once a month, but once a year would be acceptable but if it's a really big jackpot once in a life time might be fine too.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            time*treat's avatar - radar

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            Posted: February 2, 2006, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

            RJOh,
            True, maybe not literally every month. After all, Feb. is tougher than Jan. or Mar., but that RC5 is a nice target at ~25 shots(chances) per month.   

            popeye,
            If I were going to use RNGs, I would leave that step until last, after I was sure every possible error was out. Otherwise you could be getting different results each run due to errors in the code rather than your RNG. There are at least 2 camps on RNG though. One says, I want random because the game is random. Another says, the game only appears to be random and I want to match that not-quite-randomness (subtle pattern).

            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: February 3, 2006, 1:14 am - IP Logged

              time*treat,

              Why do you say Feb. is tougher than Jan. or Mar.?  I don't play every game every draw, even RC5 has to be $200K+ generally before I buy tickets.  PowerBall has to be near $200M before I make a trip to Indiana for tickets and if MegaMillions is less than $50M I have to feel lucky to play.  I pick numbers for almost every draw to see what might have happen if I had played, so far I've never regretted not playing. 

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                time*treat's avatar - radar

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                Posted: February 3, 2006, 7:44 am - IP Logged

                "never regretted not playing."  ROFL That is classic!

                Feb. is harder, mainly because it is the shortest. Jan. & Mar. give more chances.
                If you don't play every draw, then you have nothing to worry about.

                It seems that with an RNG component, you would get a different output set for the same draw if you run the code multiple times. So, sometimes it would show a win, and at others a loss. How do you know which "run" to use. Or, are you using a static seed number?

                The main reason I stay away from RNGs is so that I can get the same result whenever I test a specific date with specific parameters. Helps me ferret out subtle mistakes (like the dreaded "1 off" error).

                In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: February 3, 2006, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

                  When ever I run my RNG, I have the option of choosing a seed number or allowing the program to use the timer number as a seed.  I usually enter the date as a seed since I try to repeat the outputs when I test the program for improvements. 

                  Since the program compares combination pick with combinations picked earlier for repeats and count the number of time numbers are used, a slight change in the parameters can change the outputs completely.  I can name each batch of combinations using the date and a couple of letters and save them for comparison after the drawings to see which parameters would have produced the best group to play.

                  Within the parameters I choose are thousands of possible combinations, using a RNG with parameters allow me to pick a few of those combinations with bias that I like. 

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                    Posted: February 3, 2006, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

                    2-4-6-8-A-?-E

                    10-100-?-1000-1010-1100-1110

                    2-4-6-8-12-?-16

                    2-4-?-8-10-12-14

                     

                    all 2-4-6-8-10-12-14

                    #1 Hexadecimal (missing is "C")

                    #2 Binary (missing is "110")

                    #3 Octal [base 8] (missing is "14")

                    #4 good old decimal ("6")

                    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                      Posted: February 3, 2006, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

                      profiling...

                      which are good?

                      for powerball I get a profile containing

                      A. Even or Odd

                      B. Up/Down/Repeat from last game in same position

                      C. Decade (which group of 10 the number came from)

                      D. Starting Grid Column (approximates ball position based on the stacks that the balls are in before entering the machine... no known use but it does vary from the decade value in certain cases)

                      for each number I have the above info

                      on my sheet, looks like

                      36 (current), 14 (previous), -- (next, unknown yet but backfilled in history file for previous draws)...

                      profile (or fingerprint, who knows?)

                      36=E,U,4,5

                      14=E,D,2,2

                      so by autofilter, I can choose all EU45 draws with a previous draw of ED22 to see if this indicates any trend (false or otherwise)

                      one worksheet for each position of WB data and one for PB.

                      ended up with 1 "best pick" for sat... will compare with a QP purchased on the same ticket after the draw... expecting miserable results, anything better will be a pleasant surprise but due to the subjectivity, something that resists backtesting and automation.

                      better than nothing tho...

                       

                      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                        time*treat's avatar - radar

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                        Posted: February 4, 2006, 1:30 am - IP Logged

                        hyper,
                        I missed the octal one, heh.
                        A little subjectivity can make all the difference. Example: I, for one, no longer bother with All Even/Odd filtering for p5 type games. To me, there are not enough of them to justify the extra effort in specifically kicking them out. I don't expect everyone else to follow suit, though. 

                        RJOh,
                        What you're using is very similar to how I simulate "chaos". Sensitive Dependence to Initial Conditions. 

                         

                        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          Posted: February 4, 2006, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

                          Can "chaos" be predicted or just simulated?

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            time*treat's avatar - radar

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                            Posted: February 4, 2006, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

                            RJOh,
                            I think it may not be possible (or, at least not necessary) to simulate the entire system. That would imply you can hit constantly and with only one number(bet). The weatherman gives "partly" this and "50% chance" of that. You would have to know the temp and vector velocity of every molecule in the world to get a good prediction beyond a few weeks. No system has, or can process, that much data.

                            IMO, a good simulation will tell you if you need to take an umbrella or a sweater for the next day or so. We accept that as good enough for the weather, and just tune in regularly.

                            I'll be happy enough with simulation, if it proves out a winner. I'm only talking p5, where the top prize is big enough to ride out a dry spell. 

                            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
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                              Posted: February 4, 2006, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

                              Every game I play is a pick5 game, Rolling Cash5, MegaMillions and PowerBall.  The bonus ball in MM and PB is just a side bet.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking