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# what does a prediction formula look like?

Topic closed. 100 replies. Last post 11 years ago by LOTTOMIKE.

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Pennsylvania
United States
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April 6, 2003
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 Posted: February 16, 2006, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

absolutely, keep going, interesting stuff!

asking to see a prediction algorithm is apparently as difficult as asking to see the next set of numbers before they're drawn... I have googled the subject to near death and so far nothing... at least nothing I can understand...

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

Wyncote,Pa
United States
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January 3, 2004
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 Posted: February 17, 2006, 5:22 am - IP Logged

Something from Sedertree

I will try to keep this simple:

The formula in my signature is not the formula that I was speaking of.  That formula I referred to in the challenge was part of another post that I deleted by mistake, which was:

O/N = E

O=Odds
N=Numbers
E=Number of Events

Or the "One" Formula....

So if O was equal to the odds of hitting a straight 3-Digit number (1,000) and N was equal to eight numbers.  Then E would equal 125 dvents.

You can replace O with any Odds that you like.  Let's take the odds of hitting a 6-Way box for example which is 1:167....

167 / 8 = 20.875

So if someone posted eight no-match numbers in this example.  It would take at least 20.875 Draws for one of them to hit boxed.  If one of the numbers hit boxed before that time then you would have a winning system.  As you can see in my performance in Michigan.  I blew the odds away.

As for the other formula. Here is the textbook definition:
-----------------------
It is important to for you to know that if f(x) is the (probability) density function of a random variable X, then f(x) times dx (a small positive quantity) is approximately the probability that X falls in the interval [x, x+dx]. So the integal of f(x) over an interval [a,b] is the probability that a < X < b (This just follows from the Riemann sum).
------------------------
The sum of the equation is a mute point since I have already calculated that the probability density is equal to the Gaussian Curve.

...../George

United States
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 Posted: February 17, 2006, 6:45 am - IP Logged

Hyper:  a great thread with substance and worthwhile input by LP members.

...../George:  almost clueless when it comes to the old masters-- Gauss, Bernoulli or others

but I am sure the answer is just lying dormant somewhere in their writings/dreaded formula.

Can you think of anything that could be considered a Constant, that could be Hyper's starting point.

Jordi

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 Posted: February 17, 2006, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

My idea is not a prediction formula per se, but a way of testing multiple scenarios at once. I started it on a new thread so as not to take this one away from its original question.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

Birmingham
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July 21, 2005
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 Posted: February 17, 2006, 10:25 pm - IP Logged

My idea is not a prediction formula per se, but a way of testing multiple scenarios at once. I started it on a new thread so as not to take this one away from its original question.

time*treat

Are you referring to using 1 or more algos to test the same hypothesis, or 1 algorhythm to test many hypotheses?

"Life is like a box of chocolates...you can speculate on what you're going to get through trial and error"

Michigan
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 Posted: February 17, 2006, 10:42 pm - IP Logged

United States
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 Posted: February 18, 2006, 1:18 am - IP Logged

cahaba,

I'd say 1 algorithm to test many hypotheses. Imagine that you had the workings of a winning method, but threw it out because the limits you were using gave you poor results. It is sort of an inverse of hyper's question. Is a losing formula really a winning formula with the limits/parameters changed?
It's like that skit from the : these nails aren't broken, they just belong in the other wall.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: February 18, 2006, 2:52 pm - IP Logged

In the last MegaMillion drawing all the winning numbers were in the previous four drawings which include 19 numbers. If such a situation happened 3-4 times a year, one could try and cover it every drawings and have a good chance of winning when it happened again.  That was the kinds of situations I suggested that players might search for.  That situation has only happen once but I got a PM from another LP member asking about the previous six drawings and I forward the following:

I checked the last 393 games of MegaMillions and six times all the winning numbers were in the previous six drawings.  This is a breakdown:
Previous six drawing:
Group size 20-28 numbers
matched 5 = 6 times
matched 4 = 42 times
matched 3 = 118 times
matched 2 = 125 times
matched 1 = 77 times
matched 0 = 18
* the mega ball was in that group 174 times but it only repeated within 6 draws 43 times.

Hope this helps.  Good luck to you.
RJOh

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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 Posted: February 19, 2006, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

That's what I like. I look for situations that don't have to happen often, but have a low enough cost of play, so that you can remain solvent long enough to get a winner. I believe there are plenty of them to be found.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

Birmingham
United States
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July 21, 2005
82 Posts
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 Posted: February 20, 2006, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

In the last MegaMillion drawing all the winning numbers were in the previous four drawings which include 19 numbers. If such a situation happened 3-4 times a year, one could try and cover it every drawings and have a good chance of winning when it happened again.  That was the kinds of situations I suggested that players might search for.  That situation has only happen once but I got a PM from another LP member asking about the previous six drawings and I forward the following:

I checked the last 393 games of MegaMillions and six times all the winning numbers were in the previous six drawings.  This is a breakdown:
Previous six drawing:
Group size 20-28 numbers
matched 5 = 6 times
matched 4 = 42 times
matched 3 = 118 times
matched 2 = 125 times
matched 1 = 77 times
matched 0 = 18
* the mega ball was in that group 174 times but it only repeated within 6 draws 43 times.

Hope this helps.  Good luck to you.
RJOh

Looks like a nice bell curve-

Thanks RJOh

"Life is like a box of chocolates...you can speculate on what you're going to get through trial and error"

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: February 21, 2006, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

I plan to widen those parameters to include twelve of the last sixty drawings and pick a few lines accordingly.  Now I just have to decide what is a reasonable amount for me to gamble for a cash prize of \$100,000,000.00.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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 Posted: February 21, 2006, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

One thing I have learned is to not throw a system out just because it didn't work as I had hoped/expected. 1) Code re-use is a wonderful thing. That's why I have stuff I can post for p3/p4, even though they're not my game.

2) Sometimes you put this stuff down for a week or month (or 2) and come back fresh with a new angle for the idea you already have.

I hope hyper didn't delete his SoniQ spreadsheet. I suspect there is life in it yet.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

Pennsylvania
United States
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 Posted: February 22, 2006, 6:00 am - IP Logged

I have an old folder with the dead systems in it, I call it the "junkyard". I keep it for just that reason ;-)

I also have an old archive filled with all the old failed VB6 programs, access DBs etc...

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: February 23, 2006, 10:23 am - IP Logged

I plan to widen those parameters to include twelve of the last sixty drawings and pick a few lines accordingly.  Now I just have to decide what is a reasonable amount for me to gamble for a cash prize of \$100,000,000.00.

I widen my parameters and got some match3's even when the right conditions didn't exist but have concluded I would need over 100 combinations to match5 even when the right conditions exited and lucky to match 5+l if I only played combinations of 5's once.  It's back to the drawing board until I come up with a formula I can afford to actually play.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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March 30, 2005
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 Posted: March 6, 2006, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

... just picked up the V22:N4 issue of (twenty-six hundred) the other day. It has an interesting article on the lottery that may be useful for those of you who live in a ball-draw state.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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