New Jersey United States
Member #21,205
September 4, 2005
963 Posts
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CA SLP's cash jackpot may be larger though, because its annuity is paid over 26 years instead of Powerball's 30 years. However, CA SLP's annuity is paid in graduated installments like Powerball's is.
It would seem from California's website that they are now concealing the cash value, much as New Jersey does for its lottery, and as MM does in every state except Massachusetts.
In my mind the lotteries use of annuity based advertised is the worst abuse. It is really creepy inasmuch as most players select cash, as I would.
United States
Member #16,611
June 2, 2005
3,493 Posts
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I was wrong again Prob988. For the 2nd time this year, both MM and PB were won! Oklahoma won the PB Jackpot while California won the MM Jackpot. If CA SLP rolls, then they have the highest jackpot in the world. I hope CA SLP continues to roll.
New Jersey United States
Member #21,205
September 4, 2005
963 Posts
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Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely. Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:
United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11,296 Posts
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Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely. Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:
Type of Outcome
Probability
Powerball Rolls.
90.49%
Megamillions Rolls
90.42%
Both Roll
81.82%
Powerball Rolls, MM won
8.67%
MM Rolls, Powerball won.
8.60%
Both won.
0.91%
Either, but not both, won
17.27%
It doesn't seem like there is a better than 1-in-6 chance that at least one of the two will be hit by Wednesday night.
New Jersey United States
Member #21,205
September 4, 2005
963 Posts
Offline
Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely. Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:
Type of Outcome
Probability
Powerball Rolls.
90.49%
Megamillions Rolls
90.42%
Both Roll
81.82%
Powerball Rolls, MM won
8.67%
MM Rolls, Powerball won.
8.60%
Both won.
0.91%
Either, but not both, won
17.27%
It doesn't seem like there is a better than 1-in-6 chance that at least one of the two will be hit by Wednesday night.
The underlying assumption for all of my calculations are that the lottery purchases by players are truly random. This is a useful approximation, but is complicated by a few factors, one being the number of people who play birthday numbers, the number of people who wheel through small subsets of possible numbers (of which birth date playing is a special case) , and similar factors.
Of course, all outcomes feel differently to different people. Still I only crank out the numbers using poisson calculations and standard probability theory. People can take them for what they're worth. I think people like these figures which is why I take the trouble to post them.
On this website people have all sorts of feelings about what will happen - and usually this involves them winning the lottery. I've felt that way many times, but still have not won. If I do win some day - and that is improbable - I may tell people about my feeling and they may believe there's something to it. But there won't be. It will be a random event.
Twice this year both PB and MM jackpots were won on consecutive days. This seems improbable and, before it happened, it was improbable. I would have bet money that that would not happen, and it would have been a good bet, but still I would have lost.
The laws of probability are not firm predictions. They just predict the likely distribution of events in a large enough sample. Small samples often do not reflect what the probability suggests. It is perfectly possible, although highly improbable that every PB and MM jackpot will be won this year. It is also possible, but highly improbable, that both jackpots will run to $500M annuity jackpots.
I note that the existence of any particular lottery winner is highly improbable, yet lottery winners exist.