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The odds of both neither, just one.

Topic closed. 148 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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Posted: June 4, 2006, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

CA SLP's cash jackpot may be larger though, because its annuity is paid over 26 years instead of Powerball's 30 years. However, CA SLP's annuity is paid in graduated installments like Powerball's is.

It would seem from California's website that they are now concealing the cash value, much as New Jersey does for its lottery, and as MM does in every state except Massachusetts.

In my mind the lotteries use of annuity based advertised is the worst abuse.  It is really creepy inasmuch as most players select cash, as I would.

 

 

 

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    Morrison, IL
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    Posted: June 4, 2006, 9:45 pm - IP Logged

    For Mega Millions, you forgot that Ohio does not conceal Mega's cash value either.

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      New Jersey
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      Posted: June 4, 2006, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

      For Mega Millions, you forgot that Ohio does not conceal Mega's cash value either.

      Actually I never knew that.

      Thanks for telling me. 

       

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: June 8, 2006, 7:50 am - IP Logged
        Type of OutcomeProbability
        Powerball Rolls.89.69%
        Megamillions Rolls91.50%
        Both Roll82.07%
        Powerball Rolls, MM won7.62%
        MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.44%
        Both won.0.88%
        Either, but not both, won17.05%

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          Posted: June 11, 2006, 12:15 am - IP Logged

          Prob988, both MM and PB rolled. However, PB's jackpot is still the highest jackpot in the USA even if CA SLP will roll or not on 6/14.

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            New Jersey
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            Posted: June 11, 2006, 8:39 am - IP Logged
            Type of OutcomeProbability
            Powerball Rolls.88.96%
            Megamillions Rolls90.93%
            Both Roll80.89%
            Powerball Rolls, MM won8.07%
            MM Rolls, Powerball won.10.04%
            Both won.1.00%
            Either, but not both, won18.11%
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              New Jersey
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              Posted: June 13, 2006, 2:10 pm - IP Logged

              For Mega Millions, you forgot that Ohio does not conceal Mega's cash value either.

              I wasn't aware of that.  Thanks for the information.

              I checked Ohio Lottery's website and they do indeed publish the cash value estimated prize. 

               

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: June 15, 2006, 10:30 am - IP Logged
                Type of OutcomeProbability
                Powerball Rolls.87.33%
                Megamillions Rolls90.42%
                Both Roll78.96%
                Powerball Rolls, MM won8.37%
                MM Rolls, Powerball won.11.46%
                Both won.1.21%
                Either, but not both, won19.83%

                  United States
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                  Posted: June 15, 2006, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                  Prob988, both jackpots roll. However, CA SLP Jackpot is higher than MM and lower than PB.


                    United States
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                    Posted: June 18, 2006, 2:09 am - IP Logged

                    I was wrong again Prob988. For the 2nd time this year, both MM and PB were won! Oklahoma won the PB Jackpot while California won the MM Jackpot. If CA SLP rolls, then they have the highest jackpot in the world. I hope CA SLP continues to roll.

                      psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                      Posted: June 18, 2006, 3:29 am - IP Logged

                      For Mega Millions, you forgot that Ohio does not conceal Mega's cash value either.

                      I wasn't aware of that.  Thanks for the information.

                      I checked Ohio Lottery's website and they do indeed publish the cash value estimated prize. 

                       

                      With either.................won???????????????.................I bet ...............

                      I couldddd..................take $100/month on either.......one,  PB or MM

                      and                             WIN the JACKPOT......................no PROBLEM!!

                      LOL

                      PSYKOMO 

                       

                        psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

                        United States
                        Member #4877
                        May 30, 2004
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                        Posted: June 18, 2006, 3:34 am - IP Logged

                        For Mega Millions, you forgot that Ohio does not conceal Mega's cash value either.

                        I wasn't aware of that.  Thanks for the information.

                        I checked Ohio Lottery's website and they do indeed publish the cash value estimated prize. 

                         

                        With either.................won???????????????.................I bet ...............

                        I couldddd..................take $100/month on either.......one,  PB or MM

                        and                             WIN the JACKPOT......................no PROBLEM!!

                        LOL

                        PSYKOMO 

                         

                         

                        "CORRECTION".........$$$$$100.00......./WEEK!!

                        LOL

                        PSYKOMO 

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: June 18, 2006, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

                          Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely.  Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:

                           

                          Type of OutcomeProbability
                          Powerball Rolls.90.49%
                          Megamillions Rolls90.42%
                          Both Roll81.82%
                          Powerball Rolls, MM won8.67%
                          MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.60%
                          Both won.0.91%
                          Either, but not both, won17.27%


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                            Posted: June 19, 2006, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                            Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely.  Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:

                             

                            Type of OutcomeProbability
                            Powerball Rolls.90.49%
                            Megamillions Rolls90.42%
                            Both Roll81.82%
                            Powerball Rolls, MM won8.67%
                            MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.60%
                            Both won.0.91%
                            Either, but not both, won17.27%

                            It doesn't seem like there is a better than 1-in-6 chance that at least one of the two will be hit by Wednesday night.

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                              New Jersey
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                              September 4, 2005
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                              Posted: June 19, 2006, 6:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Well we've been having a streak of improbable events, with the multistate lotteries following one another quite closely.  Here are the probabilities of what will happen this coming Tuesday and Wednesday:

                               

                               

                              Type of OutcomeProbability
                              Powerball Rolls.90.49%
                              Megamillions Rolls90.42%
                              Both Roll81.82%
                              Powerball Rolls, MM won8.67%
                              MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.60%
                              Both won.0.91%
                              Either, but not both, won17.27%

                               

                              It doesn't seem like there is a better than 1-in-6 chance that at least one of the two will be hit by Wednesday night.

                              The underlying assumption for all of my calculations are that the lottery purchases by players are truly random.  This is a useful approximation, but is complicated by a few factors, one being the number of people who play birthday numbers, the number of people who wheel through small subsets of possible numbers (of which birth date playing is a special case) , and similar factors.

                              Of course, all outcomes  feel differently to different people.  Still I only crank out the numbers using poisson calculations and standard probability theory.  People can take them for what they're worth.  I think people like these figures which is why I take the trouble to post them.

                              On this website people have all sorts of feelings about what will happen - and usually this involves them winning the lottery.  I've felt that way many times, but still have not won.  If I do win some day - and that is improbable - I may tell people about my feeling and they may believe there's something to it.  But there won't be.  It will be a random event.

                              Twice this year both PB and MM jackpots were won on consecutive days.  This seems improbable and, before it happened, it was improbable.  I would have bet money that that would not happen, and it would have been a good bet, but still I would have lost.

                              The laws of probability are not firm predictions.  They just predict the likely distribution of events in a large enough sample.    Small samples often do not reflect what the probability suggests.   It is perfectly possible, although highly improbable that every PB and MM jackpot will be won this year.  It is also possible, but highly improbable, that both jackpots will run to $500M annuity jackpots.

                              I note that the existence of any particular lottery winner is highly improbable, yet lottery winners exist. 

                                 
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