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The odds of both neither, just one.

Topic closed. 148 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: August 10, 2006, 11:40 pm - IP Logged
Type of OutcomeProbability
Powerball Rolls.90.98%
Megamillions Rolls91.31%
Both Roll83.08%
Powerball Rolls, MM won7.91%
MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.23%
Both won.0.78%
Either, but not both, won16.14%

    United States
    Member #16612
    June 2, 2005
    3493 Posts
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    Posted: August 14, 2006, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

    Prob988, PB, MM, and CA SLP rolled in the last draw. CA SLP has the highest jackpot in USA right now.

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      New Jersey
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      Member #21206
      September 4, 2005
      949 Posts
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      Posted: August 14, 2006, 10:39 pm - IP Logged
      Type of OutcomeProbability
      Powerball Rolls.90.32%
      Megamillions Rolls90.82%
      Both Roll82.03%
      Powerball Rolls, MM won8.29%
      MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.79%
      Both won.0.89%
      Either, but not both, won17.08%

        United States
        Member #16612
        June 2, 2005
        3493 Posts
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        Posted: August 17, 2006, 12:43 am - IP Logged

        Prob988, PB and MM both rolled this time.

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          New Jersey
          United States
          Member #21206
          September 4, 2005
          949 Posts
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          Posted: August 24, 2006, 11:02 pm - IP Logged
          Type of OutcomeProbability
          Powerball Rolls.89.46%
          Megamillions Rolls88.22%
          Both Roll78.93%
          Powerball Rolls, MM won10.54%
          MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.30%
          Both won.1.24%
          Either, but not both, won19.83%

            United States
            Member #16612
            June 2, 2005
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            Posted: August 27, 2006, 12:34 am - IP Logged

            Prob988, both PB and MM rolled this round. I hope PB continues to roll.

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              New Jersey
              United States
              Member #21206
              September 4, 2005
              949 Posts
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              Posted: August 27, 2006, 12:40 pm - IP Logged
              Type of OutcomeProbability
              Powerball Rolls.89.07%
              Megamillions Rolls87.36%
              Both Roll77.81%
              Powerball Rolls, MM won11.26%
              MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.55%
              Both won.1.38%
              Either, but not both, won20.81%
              Expectation Value TypeValue
              Pretax Powerball cash basis0.424
              Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.403

                United States
                Member #16612
                June 2, 2005
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                Posted: August 31, 2006, 12:26 am - IP Logged

                Prob988, PB and MM both rolled this time. It's neck and neck with the current jackpots.

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                  New Jersey
                  United States
                  Member #21206
                  September 4, 2005
                  949 Posts
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                  Posted: August 31, 2006, 1:21 am - IP Logged
                  Type of OutcomeProbability
                  Powerball Rolls.88.48%
                  Megamillions Rolls86.04%
                  Both Roll76.13%
                  Powerball Rolls, MM won12.35%
                  MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.91%
                  Both won.1.61%
                  Either, but not both, won22.26%
                  Expectation Value TypeValue
                  Pretax Powerball cash basis0.466
                  Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.444
                    psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

                    United States
                    Member #4877
                    May 30, 2004
                    5120 Posts
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                    Posted: August 31, 2006, 2:19 am - IP Logged
                    Type of OutcomeProbability
                    Powerball Rolls.88.48%
                    Megamillions Rolls86.04%
                    Both Roll76.13%
                    Powerball Rolls, MM won12.35%
                    MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.91%
                    Both won.1.61%
                    Either, but not both, won22.26%
                    Expectation Value TypeValue
                    Pretax Powerball cash basis0.466
                    Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.444


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                      New Jersey
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                      Member #21206
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                      Posted: September 3, 2006, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

                      I take it then, that you think I shouldn't bother with this.

                      Others may disagree.

                       I will therefore post again.  If, however, a consensus develops that I suspend update on my threads, I will do so.

                       

                       

                      Type of OutcomeProbability
                      Powerball Rolls.86.82%
                      Megamillions Rolls83.19%
                      Both Roll72.22%
                      Powerball Rolls, MM won14.60%
                      MM Rolls, Powerball won.10.96%
                      Both won.2.22%
                      Either, but not both, won25.56%
                      Expectation Value TypeValue
                      Pretax Powerball cash basis0.504
                      Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.479
                        dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                        United States
                        Member #2338
                        September 17, 2003
                        2063 Posts
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                        Posted: September 5, 2006, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                        I appreciate your efforts.

                        I was also wondering if you could tell me how the odds work since I have always had a problem with the BC lottery in figuring a rollover.

                        I have seen sales equal to the odds (13.9 million tickets sold/ odds of winning = 13.9 million to one)

                        I was curious if the odds equal the sales then do the odds of a rollover approach 0%? 

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                          New Jersey
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                          September 4, 2005
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                          Posted: September 5, 2006, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

                          I appreciate your efforts.

                          I was also wondering if you could tell me how the odds work since I have always had a problem with the BC lottery in figuring a rollover.

                          I have seen sales equal to the odds (13.9 million tickets sold/ odds of winning = 13.9 million to one)

                          I was curious if the odds equal the sales then do the odds of a rollover approach 0%? 

                          No the odds do not approach zero as the number of tickets sold approaches the odds.

                          Think of it this way:  Suppose you had 100 balls floating randomly (as in a lottery machine by air flow) suspended above 100 cups.  You turn the air flow off and the balls drop.  Some of the balls will fall into cups in which other balls have already fallen.    Some cups will have 2 balls, some will have more than two balls, and some will be empty.  This is very much the same case as the lottery, except one is envisioning hundreds of millions of balls falling into hundreds of millions of cups in the case of MM and PB.

                          The type of mathematics that allows one to calculate the distribution of these balls is called a Poisson distribution. 

                          Irrespective of the odds of a particular lottery, any time the number of tickets sold is equal to the odds of the lottery, there is a 36.8% chance that the lottery will rollover.  Thus in the lottery you mention, 13.9 million in sales would have a 36.8% chance of rolling over, on average.

                          In the case of MM, it takes about 120 M in sales before the probability of the lottery rolling over falls below 50%.    However in repeated trials, even an event with a probability of 10% will occur.  This accounts for why we almost always see a winner before sales actually reach $120M on a single draw.   

                          On a drawing with 300M in sales on a single draw, there would still be a better than 18% chance of a rollover.  There would be about a 2% chance of 5 winning tickets though, and a 31% chance of one winner. 

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                            New Jersey
                            United States
                            Member #21206
                            September 4, 2005
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                            Posted: September 7, 2006, 9:03 pm - IP Logged
                            Type of OutcomeProbability
                            Powerball Rolls.85.04%
                            Megamillions Rolls83.93%
                            Both Roll71.37%
                            Powerball Rolls, MM won13.66%
                            MM Rolls, Powerball won.12.56%
                            Both won.2.40%
                            Either, but not both, won26.22%
                            Expectation Value TypeValue
                            Pretax Powerball cash basis0.564
                            Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.544

                              United States
                              Member #16612
                              June 2, 2005
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                              Posted: September 8, 2006, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

                              With this probability, I hope both PB and MM roll Prob988.

                                 
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