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The odds of both neither, just one.

Topic closed. 148 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Prob988.

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Thread Starter
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September 4, 2005
953 Posts
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Posted: February 11, 2007, 5:22 pm - IP Logged
Prize Values
MegaMillions Cash Value$61,900,000
MegaMillions Annuity Value$106,000,000
Powerball Cash Value$22,000,000
Powerball Annuity Value$46,000,000
Type of OutcomeProbability
Powerball Rolls.89.68%
Megamillions Rolls83.57%
Both Roll74.95%
Powerball Rolls, MM won14.73%
MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.62%
Both won.1.69%
Either, but not both, won23.35%
Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
MM exceeds 200M annuity38.08%
MM exceeds 300M annuity12.32%
PB exceeds 100M annuity51.98%
PB exceeds 200M annuity21.37%
PB exceeds 300M annuity6.05%
Neither exceeds 300M annuity82.37%
Either exceeds 300M18.37%
Both exceed 300M0.75%
Expectation Value TypeValue
Pretax Powerball cash basis0.344
Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.519
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    Thread Starter
    New Jersey
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    Posted: February 15, 2007, 2:55 pm - IP Logged
    Prize Values
    MegaMillions Cash Value$75,600,000
    MegaMillions Annuity Value$130,000,000
    Powerball Cash Value$27,500,000
    Powerball Annuity Value$58,000,000
    Type of OutcomeProbability
    Powerball Rolls.89.14%
    Megamillions Rolls81.65%
    Both Roll72.79%
    Powerball Rolls, MM won16.35%
    MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.87%
    Both won.1.99%
    Either, but not both, won25.22%
    Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
    MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
    MM exceeds 200M annuity46.37%
    MM exceeds 300M annuity15.01%
    PB exceeds 100M annuity58.35%
    PB exceeds 200M annuity23.99%
    PB exceeds 300M annuity6.79%
    Neither exceeds 300M annuity79.22%
    Either exceeds 300M21.80%
    Both exceed 300M1.02%
    Expectation Value TypeValue
    Pretax Powerball cash basis0.380
    Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.591
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      Thread Starter
      New Jersey
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      September 4, 2005
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      Posted: February 18, 2007, 11:42 am - IP Logged
      Prize Values
      MegaMillions Cash Value$88,300,000
      MegaMillions Annuity Value$150,000,000
      Powerball Cash Value$31,900,000
      Powerball Annuity Value$67,000,000
      Type of OutcomeProbability
      Powerball Rolls.88.93%
      Megamillions Rolls78.90%
      Both Roll70.17%
      Powerball Rolls, MM won18.76%
      MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.73%
      Both won.2.34%
      Either, but not both, won27.50%
      Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
      MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
      MM exceeds 200M annuity58.01%
      MM exceeds 300M annuity18.76%
      PB exceeds 100M annuity66.00%
      PB exceeds 200M annuity27.12%
      PB exceeds 300M annuity7.68%
      Neither exceeds 300M annuity75.00%
      Either exceeds 300M26.44%
      Both exceed 300M1.44%
      Expectation Value TypeValue
      Pretax Powerball cash basis0.409
      Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.655
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        Thread Starter
        New Jersey
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        September 4, 2005
        953 Posts
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        Posted: February 22, 2007, 7:46 am - IP Logged
        Prize Values
        MegaMillions Cash Value$104,000,000
        MegaMillions Annuity Value$177,000,000
        Powerball Cash Value$37,500,000
        Powerball Annuity Value$78,000,000
        Type of OutcomeProbability
        Powerball Rolls.88.20%
        Megamillions Rolls76.83%
        Both Roll67.76%
        Powerball Rolls, MM won20.44%
        MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.06%
        Both won.2.73%
        Either, but not both, won29.50%
        Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
        MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
        MM exceeds 200M annuity74.85%
        MM exceeds 300M annuity24.20%
        PB exceeds 100M annuity75.21%
        PB exceeds 200M annuity30.89%
        PB exceeds 300M annuity8.74%
        Neither exceeds 300M annuity69.17%
        Either exceeds 300M32.94%
        Both exceed 300M2.12%
        Expectation Value TypeValue
        Pretax Powerball cash basis0.446
        Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.735
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          Thread Starter
          New Jersey
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          Posted: February 25, 2007, 11:50 pm - IP Logged
          Prize Values
          MegaMillions Cash Value$126,900,000
          MegaMillions Annuity Value$216,000,000
          Powerball Cash Value$43,200,000
          Powerball Annuity Value$90,000,000
          Type of OutcomeProbability
          Powerball Rolls.86.57%
          Megamillions Rolls70.78%
          Both Roll61.28%
          Powerball Rolls, MM won25.29%
          MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.51%
          Both won.3.92%
          Either, but not both, won34.80%
          Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
          MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
          MM exceeds 200M annuity100.00%
          MM exceeds 300M annuity32.20%
          PB exceeds 100M annuity86.39%
          PB exceeds 200M annuity35.46%
          PB exceeds 300M annuity10.04%
          Neither exceeds 300M annuity60.99%
          Either exceeds 300M42.24%
          Both exceed 300M3.23%
          Expectation Value TypeValue
          Pretax Powerball cash basis0.482
          Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.843

            United States
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            Posted: February 26, 2007, 12:33 am - IP Logged

            I'm glad that MM and PB rolled. I hope MM continues to roll and reach 300+ million.

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              New Jersey
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              Posted: March 1, 2007, 11:56 pm - IP Logged
              Prize Values
              MegaMillions Cash Value$158,645,000
              MegaMillions Annuity Value$267,000,000
              Powerball Cash Value$50,200,000
              Powerball Annuity Value$105,000,000
              Type of OutcomeProbability
              Powerball Rolls.86.07%
              Megamillions Rolls57.91%
              Both Roll49.84%
              Powerball Rolls, MM won36.23%
              MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.06%
              Both won.5.86%
              Either, but not both, won44.30%
              Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
              MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
              MM exceeds 200M annuity100.00%
              MM exceeds 300M annuity31.86%
              PB exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
              PB exceeds 200M annuity41.06%
              PB exceeds 300M annuity11.62%
              Neither exceeds 300M annuity60.22%
              Either exceeds 300M43.48%
              Both exceed 300M3.70%
              Expectation Value TypeValue
              Pretax Powerball cash basis0.528
              Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.966
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                Thread Starter
                New Jersey
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                Posted: March 4, 2007, 11:32 am - IP Logged
                Prize Values
                MegaMillions Cash Value$202,743,020
                MegaMillions Annuity Value$340,000,000
                Powerball Cash Value$57,600,000
                Powerball Annuity Value$120,000,000
                Type of OutcomeProbability
                Powerball Rolls.86.07%
                Megamillions Rolls51.45%
                Both Roll44.29%
                Powerball Rolls, MM won41.79%
                MM Rolls, Powerball won.7.17%
                Both won.6.76%
                Either, but not both, won48.95%
                Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
                MM exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
                MM exceeds 200M annuity100.00%
                MM exceeds 300M annuity100.00%
                PB exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
                PB exceeds 200M annuity47.81%
                PB exceeds 300M annuity13.53%
                Neither exceeds 300M annuity0.00%
                Either exceeds 300M113.53%
                Both exceed 300M13.53%
                Expectation Value TypeValue
                Pretax Powerball cash basis0.577
                Pretax Megamillions cash basis1.152
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                  Posted: March 4, 2007, 12:30 pm - IP Logged

                  Note that the expectation value for MM is over 1.  These is a very rare event for large odds lotteries and means that this is a rare occassion where the lottery is a "good bet."

                  An expectation value is the ration of returns to the probability of receiving that return.  My calculation includes effects related to the possibility of more than one winner, but it does not include taxes.  Lottery expectation values have never been over 1 including the effect of taxes.

                    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                    Posted: March 4, 2007, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                    Actually Euromillions had an expected value of 3. No income tax in Europe on lottery prizes and a cash prize of 230 million with odds of only 76 million.

                    For Megamillions to equal one it has to have a cash prize  of 270.5 million and an annuity of around 466 million in a state without income tax on lottery winnings. Of course this only holds true if the income tax is 35%. The amount would go much higher if income tax goes up and much lower if DC shows some brains and drops federal income tax on state run lotteries.

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                      Thread Starter
                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: March 11, 2007, 3:46 pm - IP Logged
                      Prize Values
                      MegaMillions Cash Value$11,302,976
                      MegaMillions Annuity Value$19,000,000
                      Powerball Cash Value$79,500,000
                      Powerball Annuity Value$165,000,000
                      Type of OutcomeProbability
                      Powerball Rolls.82.90%
                      Megamillions Rolls91.92%
                      Both Roll76.20%
                      Powerball Rolls, MM won6.70%
                      MM Rolls, Powerball won.15.72%
                      Both won.1.38%
                      Either, but not both, won22.42%
                      Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
                      MM exceeds 100M annuity40.28%
                      MM exceeds 200M annuity13.44%
                      MM exceeds 300M annuity3.30%
                      PB exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
                      PB exceeds 200M annuity66.52%
                      PB exceeds 300M annuity18.83%
                      Neither exceeds 300M annuity78.49%
                      Either exceeds 300M22.13%
                      Both exceed 300M0.62%
                      Expectation Value TypeValue
                      Pretax Powerball cash basis0.716
                      Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.245
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                        Thread Starter
                        New Jersey
                        United States
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                        September 4, 2005
                        953 Posts
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                        Posted: March 15, 2007, 10:37 am - IP Logged
                        Prize Values
                        MegaMillions Cash Value$16,746,000
                        MegaMillions Annuity Value$28,000,000
                        Powerball Cash Value$88,200,000
                        Powerball Annuity Value$183,000,000
                        Type of OutcomeProbability
                        Powerball Rolls.80.66%
                        Megamillions Rolls91.92%
                        Both Roll74.14%
                        Powerball Rolls, MM won6.52%
                        MM Rolls, Powerball won.17.78%
                        Both won.1.56%
                        Either, but not both, won24.29%
                        Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
                        MM exceeds 100M annuity46.06%
                        MM exceeds 200M annuity15.36%
                        MM exceeds 300M annuity3.77%
                        PB exceeds 100M annuity100.00%
                        PB exceeds 200M annuity79.51%
                        PB exceeds 300M annuity22.51%
                        Neither exceeds 300M annuity74.57%
                        Either exceeds 300M26.28%
                        Both exceed 300M0.85%
                        Expectation Value TypeValue
                        Pretax Powerball cash basis0.769
                        Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.245
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                          Thread Starter
                          New Jersey
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                          September 4, 2005
                          953 Posts
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                          Posted: March 30, 2007, 12:03 am - IP Logged
                          Prize Values
                          MegaMillions Cash Value$43,400,000
                          MegaMillions Annuity Value$74,000,000
                          Powerball Cash Value$19,100,000
                          Powerball Annuity Value$41,000,000
                          Type of OutcomeProbability
                          Powerball Rolls.89.97%
                          Megamillions Rolls88.64%
                          Both Roll79.75%
                          Powerball Rolls, MM won10.22%
                          MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.89%
                          Both won.1.14%
                          Either, but not both, won19.11%
                          Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
                          MM exceeds 100M annuity71.06%
                          MM exceeds 200M annuity23.68%
                          MM exceeds 300M annuity5.81%
                          PB exceeds 100M annuity46.31%
                          PB exceeds 200M annuity18.73%
                          PB exceeds 300M annuity5.30%
                          Neither exceeds 300M annuity89.19%
                          Either exceeds 300M11.11%
                          Both exceed 300M0.31%
                          Expectation Value TypeValue
                          Pretax Powerball cash basis0.324
                          Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.421
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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: April 23, 2007, 3:58 pm - IP Logged
                            Prize Values
                            MegaMillions Cash Value$27,500,000
                            MegaMillions Annuity Value$47,000,000
                            Powerball Cash Value$26,800,000
                            Powerball Annuity Value$57,000,000
                            Type of OutcomeProbabilityProb Won
                            Powerball Rolls.89.07%10.93%
                            Megamillions Rolls87.34%12.66%
                            Both Roll77.79%
                            Powerball Rolls, MM won11.28%
                            MM Rolls, Powerball won.9.55%
                            Both won.1.38%
                            Either, but not both, won20.83%100.00%
                            Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
                            MM exceeds 100M annuity50.09%
                            MM exceeds 200M annuity16.71%
                            MM exceeds 300M annuity4.11%95.89%
                            PB exceeds 100M annuity57.84%
                            PB exceeds 200M annuity23.44%
                            PB exceeds 300M annuity6.64%93.36%
                            Neither exceeds 300M annuity89.53%
                            Either exceeds 300M10.75%
                            Both exceed 300M0.27%
                            Expectation Value TypeValue
                            Pretax Powerball cash basis0.375
                            Pretax Megamillions cash basis0.301
                               
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