The odds of both neither, just one.Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 4, 2007, 9:12 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$59,700,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$102,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$55,200,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$115,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	84.66%
  Megamillions Rolls	83.93%
  Both Roll	71.05%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	13.60%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	12.88%
  Both won.	2.47%
  Either, but not both, won	26.48%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	38.16%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	12.38%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	48.39%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	14.06%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	75.31%
  Either exceeds 300M	26.43%
  Both exceed 300M	1.74%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.559
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.507
• Just6ntlc

  United States
  Member #16,611
  June 2, 2005
  3,493 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 7, 2007, 1:25 am

  ▲▼

  Prob988, both MM and PB both rolled in the last draw.
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 7, 2007, 11:22 pm

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$71,600,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$122,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$63,500,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$131,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	82.93%
  Megamillions Rolls	83.57%
  Both Roll	69.31%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	13.63%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	14.26%
  Both won.	2.80%
  Either, but not both, won	27.89%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	46.41%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	15.04%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	56.74%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	16.48%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	70.96%
  Either exceeds 300M	31.52%
  Both exceed 300M	2.48%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.612
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.571
• Just6ntlc

  United States
  Member #16,611
  June 2, 2005
  3,493 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 10, 2007, 1:29 pm

  ▲▼

  Prob988, we know for sure that MM had a jackpot winner (Texas) in the current draw. I hope PB rolls.
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 11, 2007, 12:29 am

  ▲▼

  I'm enjoying the two big jackpots, MM and PB being out of phase with one another.   I hope PB goes a few more draws in her, to give MM time to get back up a little.

   

   

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$7,000,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$12,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$74,700,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$155,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	82.93%
  Megamillions Rolls	91.76%
  Both Roll	76.10%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	6.83%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	15.66%
  Both won.	1.41%
  Either, but not both, won	22.49%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	37.22%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	14.17%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	4.58%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	67.16%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	19.51%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	76.80%
  Either exceeds 300M	24.09%
  Both exceed 300M	0.89%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.682
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.221
• Just6ntlc

  United States
  Member #16,611
  June 2, 2005
  3,493 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 14, 2007, 1:58 am

  ▲▼

  Prob988, I'm happy that PB continues to roll. I hope PB rolls and reaches between 365 and 390 million. Both MM and PB roll this time.
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 14, 2007, 9:52 pm

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$9,300,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$16,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$86,000,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$180,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	82.93%
  Megamillions Rolls	91.89%
  Both Roll	76.21%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	6.72%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	15.68%
  Both won.	1.38%
  Either, but not both, won	22.41%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	39.61%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	15.07%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	4.88%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	80.03%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	23.19%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	73.07%
  Either exceeds 300M	28.06%
  Both exceed 300M	1.13%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.754
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.234
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 19, 2007, 8:10 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$14,500,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$25,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$98,300,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$205,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	82.93%
  Megamillions Rolls	91.36%
  Both Roll	75.77%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	7.17%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	15.59%
  Both won.	1.47%
  Either, but not both, won	22.76%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	42.53%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	16.19%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	5.24%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	28.97%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	67.31%
  Either exceeds 300M	34.21%
  Both exceed 300M	1.52%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.826
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.263
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 21, 2007, 8:56 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$19,200,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$33,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$114,000,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$240,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	82.93%
  Megamillions Rolls	91.36%
  Both Roll	75.77%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	7.17%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	15.59%
  Both won.	1.47%
  Either, but not both, won	22.76%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	42.53%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	16.19%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	5.24%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	100.00%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	38.88%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	57.92%
  Either exceeds 300M	44.12%
  Both exceed 300M	2.04%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.913
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.263
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 25, 2007, 4:26 pm

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$25,000,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$43,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$7,100,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$15,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	90.41%
  Megamillions Rolls	90.05%
  Both Roll	81.42%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	9.00%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	8.63%
  Both won.	0.95%
  Either, but not both, won	17.63%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	50.52%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	19.23%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	6.22%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	35.37%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	14.54%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	4.11%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	89.92%
  Either exceeds 300M	10.34%
  Both exceed 300M	0.26%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.244
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.320
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 29, 2007, 10:58 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$31,100,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$54,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$7,100,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$15,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	90.34%
  Megamillions Rolls	89.57%
  Both Roll	80.92%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	9.42%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	8.65%
  Both won.	1.01%
  Either, but not both, won	18.07%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	56.06%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	21.34%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	6.90%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	35.33%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	14.53%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	4.11%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	89.27%
  Either exceeds 300M	11.02%
  Both exceed 300M	0.28%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.244
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.354
• JAG331

  

  Greenwich, CT
  United States
  Member #4,793
  May 24, 2004
  1,822 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 29, 2007, 11:03 am

  ▲▼

  Great posts, Prob988.

  Thanks for the comparisons and calculations!
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Feb 1, 2007, 11:11 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to JAG331

  Quote: Originally posted by JAG331 on Jan 29, 2007

  Great posts, Prob988.

  Thanks for the comparisons and calculations!

  You're very welcome.   Thanks for appreciating it.

  Here's the latest on the current runs:

   

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$37,500,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$65,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$9,300,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$20,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	90.37%
  Megamillions Rolls	88.67%
  Both Roll	80.13%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	10.24%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	8.54%
  Both won.	1.09%
  Either, but not both, won	18.78%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	63.10%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	24.02%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	7.77%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	38.49%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	15.82%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	4.48%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	88.10%
  Either exceeds 300M	12.25%
  Both exceed 300M	0.35%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.244
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.389
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Feb 4, 2007, 8:10 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$44,700,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$77,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$12,600,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$27,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	90.24%
  Megamillions Rolls	87.67%
  Both Roll	79.11%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	11.13%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	8.56%
  Both won.	1.20%
  Either, but not both, won	19.69%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	72.16%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	27.47%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	8.89%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	42.22%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	17.36%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	4.91%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	86.63%
  Either exceeds 300M	13.80%
  Both exceed 300M	0.44%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.281
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.428
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  979 Posts
  Offline
  Feb 9, 2007, 1:25 am

  ▲▼

  Prize Values
  MegaMillions Cash Value	$52,800,000
  MegaMillions Annuity Value	$91,000,000
  Powerball Cash Value	$17,500,000
  Powerball Annuity Value	$37,000,000
  Type of Outcome	Probability
  Powerball Rolls.	90.06%
  Megamillions Rolls	86.43%
  Both Roll	77.84%
  Powerball Rolls, MM won	12.22%
  MM Rolls, Powerball won.	8.59%
  Both won.	1.35%
  Either, but not both, won	20.81%
  Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior on current run
  MM exceeds 100M annuity	84.07%
  MM exceeds 200M annuity	32.01%
  MM exceeds 300M annuity	10.36%
  PB exceeds 100M annuity	46.68%
  PB exceeds 200M annuity	19.19%
  PB exceeds 300M annuity	5.43%
  Neither exceeds 300M annuity	84.77%
  Either exceeds 300M	15.79%
  Both exceed 300M	0.56%
  Expectation Value Type	Value
  Pretax Powerball cash basis	0.314
  Pretax Megamillions cash basis	0.472