United States Member #13130 March 30, 2005 2171 Posts Offline

Posted: June 23, 2008, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

The various filters ("AABBCC", odd/even ratios, etc) are much like elements on the periodic table, they need to be combined with each other to get full use of them.

The limits of what can and cannot be simulated on a modern computer are mostly determined by what is between the keyboard and the chair.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you. Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7458 Posts Offline

Posted: June 23, 2008, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on June 22, 2008

you can't use a supercomputer for blackjack or casino games or horse betting...YOu can only use a supercomputer for the lottery and the stock market...

they watch too much star trek and tv...

and the supercomputers they got know are nothing compare to what they had in 1985, 1975, 1965 or 1955...even though a supercomputer of 1985 could be helpful...

i said this several times before...

Thorpe didn't use a computer to play blackjack; he used one to simulate thousands of blackjack hands from a single deck and analyzed the results. At that time, casinos use one deck and some dealt out all the cards, shuffled the discards and kept on dealing. He knew it was possible to track the discards and know which cards remained in the deck and used the data from the simulated hands find out if it could be an advantage to the player.

It's called card counting and variations of it are still used today.

Honduras Member #20982 August 29, 2005 4715 Posts Offline

Posted: June 24, 2008, 1:00 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on June 21, 2008

"If you also see four 5's and multiples of it and by that i mean if you see 5, 15, 20, 30, and then a number, and if you see this appear 2 times in less than 3 months, then your game is rigged.."

Excluding the power ball, there are 14,520 combinations with 4 numbers with multiples of 5 and you could expect to see it happen once out of every 250 drawings. I did a quick look back to January 2006 and couldn't find where that happened once so maybe it's due. And since it should average two hits in 500 draws and it's been at least 250 drawings since the last time, it could happen twice in the next 250 drawings. If that happens within 3 month period, it might be worth a "how about that", but it certainly wouldn't prove the game was rigged.

Assuming you're including the powerball numbers where 19% are multiples of 5 and matching one of them with one of the 156,090 combinations to reach your conclusion the drawings are rigged, you should have done the math first. And since there are 1,248,720 combinations like that, it doesn't even deserve a "how about that" if it hits twice in 3 months.

"For example i seen i think it was three 6's then three 4's and then three 8's ONE AFTER THE OTHER, which shouldn't happened, yet i've seen them in Powerball in 2007..."

Powerball is not a raffle where after a combination of numbers are drawn, they are eliminated from future play. 55 numbered balls are placed in a container, mixed in a way that each number has an equal chance of being one of 5 numbers drawn. In the next draw 55 numbered balls will again be put into a container and the process is repeated. While it seems unlikely that 2 number would repeat from the previous drawing, there are 195,999 other combinations with two of those numbers.

Why is it more unlikely to for you to see three numbers ending in 6 being followed by three 4s and three 8s than seeing 18-21-49 being followed by 9-11-50 and 12-39-52?

"Is the odds/chances, the odds/chances of such scenarios happening is...it shouldn't happen..."

In the early 1960s, Dr. Edward Thorpe used a super computer to simulate thousands of Black Jack hands and determined the player had an advantage when the ratio of tens and face cards to the other cards reached a certain level in the remaining cards in the deck. In actual play even though the odds favored him, it was still possible he could be dealt more of the remaining low cards than the dealer and lose. In overall play or 100s of times of raising his bet to the table limit when the deck reached his ratio it did show a big profit.

There are over 146 million possible Powerball combination; how many drawings would you have to simulate before you even start to determine what should or should not happen?

"There are over 146 million possible Powerball combination; how many drawings would you have to simulate before you even start to determine what should or should not happen?"

People been saying this for years that there is 150 million combination...There is actually 3 million combinations if you count the 5 white balls..And those 3 millions are MULTIPLIED by the bonus ball meaning that they repeat 42 times...I notice that 80% of the bonus ball for Powerball is bellow 30 and above 5...So if you take the different is: 30-5= 25 so basically the odds of Powerball are more like 3 million X 25 = 1 in 75 million most of the time or 80% of the time...Not only that the first 5 balls is only 3 million, if you can get the 5 first ball constantly all you had to do is multiplied it by 12 (half of 25) by 12 even balls and in 4 or 5 following draws you WILL HAVE WON Powerball...And the odds will have been 1 in 36 million...

And the odds depend on the playing field that you are playing, because if you have 10 combinations and you know the winning combination is in there and you multiplied it time 12 even bonus ball giving you 120 dollars and let's say you win then the odds where never 1 in 146 million but more like i n 8 million...But you will not understand...

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3819 Posts Offline

Posted: June 24, 2008, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

I'd like to redirect everyone. I have read the replies and there are good points in either pro or con. However, the original heading of the topic is 'How do I prove my state lottery's CGN is fix?' As of now, there is some indication that something is going a skew, but not the real 'gotcha betch!' moment; that's yet to come.

This was broken up into three different experiments, labeled Experiment 0, Experiment 1 and Experiment 2. Each follows on the other; Experiment 0 is the control setup for Experiment 1 and Experiment 2 is a play on the deficiencies created in Experiment 1. Experiment 0 and 1 had their numbers derived from previous draws, but Experiment 2's numbers a relatively fixed to previous draws. Experiment 2's numbers being posted in the Lottery Post's Perditions Board are wheeled from a fixed set of numbers {10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22} and they are centered on the deficiencies from Experiment 1; based on the bulk set of numbers established in the wheel number analysis. These are the numbers {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}. These numbers have shown to be deficient in the lottery's random number selection at the same numeric position where the greatest frequency of wheel numbers that were being posted for Experiment 1.

Experiment 2 has nearly nothing to do with trying to predict what numbers will occur based of previous draws. They are fixed, so there is really no feedback coming from the lottery. It's a sit and wait procedure; see what numbers are being selected and then analyze the numbers as they are coming out from the lottery. The next step is to see if there is some kind of correlation between what being posted and what's being selected. Ideally for truly random events, there shouldn't be any correlation because the two events are not directly related. In other words, if we were to not post the wheeled numbers there should be the same result; very little to low correlation. Even by happenstance, there shouldn't be a significant relationship between the two.

Now, I know some might say, well this could be an unusual instance and it doesn't mean any thing. But that's the way of the 'Naping Nay Sayer', always the exception never the rule. Well, when it comes to random selection and reasonable expectation, the exception is just that, an exception. What your going to find is that exceptions are actually harder to come by that one might think. It's like trying to win the lottery on the very first try; for the majority of people it ain't gonna happen on a regular basis. Pointing out the event that it has happened is meaningless because it's the ol' making a mountain out a mole hill approach. Look see... see look... it's happened! Yah, nice, now let's see that happen again and again and again every day, then I'll consider it a possibility worth analyzing.

For now, the posting and analyzing continues...

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7458 Posts Offline

Posted: June 24, 2008, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on June 24, 2008

"There are over 146 million possible Powerball combination; how many drawings would you have to simulate before you even start to determine what should or should not happen?"

People been saying this for years that there is 150 million combination...There is actually 3 million combinations if you count the 5 white balls..And those 3 millions are MULTIPLIED by the bonus ball meaning that they repeat 42 times...I notice that 80% of the bonus ball for Powerball is bellow 30 and above 5...So if you take the different is: 30-5= 25 so basically the odds of Powerball are more like 3 million X 25 = 1 in 75 million most of the time or 80% of the time...Not only that the first 5 balls is only 3 million, if you can get the 5 first ball constantly all you had to do is multiplied it by 12 (half of 25) by 12 even balls and in 4 or 5 following draws you WILL HAVE WON Powerball...And the odds will have been 1 in 36 million...

And the odds depend on the playing field that you are playing, because if you have 10 combinations and you know the winning combination is in there and you multiplied it time 12 even bonus ball giving you 120 dollars and let's say you win then the odds where never 1 in 146 million but more like i n 8 million...But you will not understand...

The Badger 5 game is 5/31 with 169,911 combinations that is drawn everyday using a RNG. If the drawing is truly random, matching the winning combo out of 10 would be a lucky guess. The side of effect of knowing how the game is rigged is that you would know one of your 10 combos would be drawn. Something that should happen in about 60% of the drawing but happens in 80% of the time is a bias but you never said how long your testing period was. Is that from all the draws or some of the drawings?

"I notice that 80% of the bonus ball for Powerball is bellow 30 and above 5..."

There are 42 numbers, 17 numbers above 29 and below 6, and in the last 42 drawings numbers from that group were drawn 18 times. 20% of 42 drawings is about 9 times so the numbers from that group hit twice as many times as you noticed and about the same as probabilitity.

"So if you take the different is: 30-5= 25 so basically the odds of Powerball are more like 3 million X 25 = 1 in 75 million most of the time or 80% of the time..."

Your 80% of the time was only 57% in the last 42 drawings. It's been explained to you many times why it would be almost impossible to play 3,478,761 combinations and I don't see much odds improvement even if it was 36 instead of 25 chances out of 89 million combinations in 42 drawings.

"And the odds depend on the playing field that you are playing, because if you have 10 combinations and you know the winning combination is in there and you multiplied it time 12 even bonus ball giving you 120 dollars and let's say you win then the odds where never 1 in 146 million but more like i n 8 million...But you will not understand..."

I don't understand how anyone could "know" one of their 10 combinations out of 3,478,761 possible combination will have the 5 correct numbers in the next drawing, but if I "knew" it, I would play them with all the bonus numbers and win the jackpot. And you can get a much better odds reduction than 1 in 8 million by simply playing a 44 combination 2if5 out 55 number wheel and using each of the 42 bonus balls at least one time. The odds are less than 1 in 3.5 million.

Minnesota United States Member #13028 March 28, 2005 870 Posts Offline

Posted: July 10, 2008, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

Ok ..... after 3 months of trying to read through this post (sorry ... I'm dyslexic), I am still trying to take this all in and see where it leads.

My simple question for you, and I'm assuming others are curious as well, is what state lotteries and state lottery games are fixed and which ones aren't? Plain and simple ... please help us out!

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3819 Posts Offline

Posted: July 12, 2008, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Atomic Dog on July 10, 2008

Ok ..... after 3 months of trying to read through this post (sorry ... I'm dyslexic), I am still trying to take this all in and see where it leads.

My simple question for you, and I'm assuming others are curious as well, is what state lotteries and state lottery games are fixed and which ones aren't? Plain and simple ... please help us out!

Thanks,

John

That was explained on Post 1, Pretext section, Paragraph 5, Sentence 1. Read carefully the first post and quite possibly several times to fully understand this posted topic.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3819 Posts Offline

Posted: August 1, 2008, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

My ATT DSL outage has interfered with the last three Badger 5 postings. I'll have to post a weeks worth Badger 5 combos, while limping along with dialup, and hope ATT gets its MFS togther.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3819 Posts Offline

Posted: August 16, 2008, 10:05 am - IP Logged

pick3hawk,

you are in the correct general area, however, there is some additional infomation that has not been posted here that will explain a lot more. I'm currently in traveling mode for work and I'll be on the road bouncing between home and Minnesota these coming weeks. Also, the additional information is still in a test and is producing some interesting results. I'll update as soon as work related matters calm down.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3819 Posts Offline

Posted: September 13, 2008, 11:02 am - IP Logged

We are coming up on one year since the start of Experiment 1 in October. The data we have collected is very revealing in addition to other observations.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer