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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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Posted: September 1, 2010, 11:53 am - IP Logged

"I don't play pick3 or pick4 and I don't track them either."

I told him at least five times playing the same number every day the entire history of any pick-3 game is a bad, bet but he keeps on saying I was wrong or confused. You may have to tell him you don't play the games or track them a few more time before it finally sinks in.

Stack47,

You're really wasting your time and mine.

I think it would be of benefit to you if you spent some time going back over this thread.

All the resources you need to keep your bets sufficiently spread over the Universes of each game are provided right here at LotteryPost.com, many of them free.  There is no need for you to pay charlatans for systems alleging to beat the odds.

And I'm sorry, but it looks like I overestimated you in my last post above.

--Jimmy4164

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: September 1, 2010, 12:17 pm - IP Logged
    Stack47,
    Well, I knew it had to happen eventually.  Reading between the lines above, I can see you're starting to cave.  You're too smart to go on indefinitely under the spell of that powerful fallacy, the one we've talked about so much here!  But I'm disappointed.  It appears you're going to take the evasive stance old Dean Esmay outlines here, rather than a more courageous one.  But, at least the fog may be lifting for you.
     
    The Brainteaser That Changed My World
    April 17, 2002


    "If you go through life forming and sharing opinions, it is a rock-solid certainty that you will be wrong about something. The more opinions you have, the more that will happen. The bigger the issue, the more spectacularly wrong you're likely to be.

    In my mid-20s, I stumbled on a brain teaser that, literally, changed how I viewed the world. As melodramatic as it sounds, I haven't been the same since. And, as with so many other things in this world, it's all Jerry Pournelle's fault...

    None of us really likes to admit being wrong. One of the most seductive ways to avoid that is to change our opinions retroactively. We say, 'No, no, you just misunderstood, you thought I was saying X when I really said Y.' Or, even worse, sometimes we just stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the evidence in front of us.

    Not that genuine misunderstandings don't happen. But a lot of people, when caught out as wrong, will say it didn't happen. Instead, they conveniently shift their position, but act like they didn't. It's almost as if we rewrite our memories, and by so doing rewrite the history of what we did or said. It's a pathology that's common to the human animal. Opinionated bloviators such as myself are particularly prone to the affliction. I don't claim to be cured, but I think I'm able to recognize the symptoms and, hopefully, manage the disease tolerably...."

    For the rest of the story, click here...

    http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/000013.html

    --Jimmy4164

    "Reading between the lines above, I can see you're starting to cave."

    When I entered this thread I assumed you were trying to develop a pick-3 system because after all this is the "Lottery Systems" forum. If you recall you invited me when I was discussing a MM wheel using all the wps and all the bonus numbers so I thought you had a pick-3 method using all the digits. I guess I was fooled by the title of the thread and because of the forum.

    "None of us really likes to admit being wrong. "

    What I don't understand is why when I agreed with you that making the same bet everyday throughout the history of any pick-3 game would be a bad bet, you continue to say I'm wrong. If there is a way to make it a good bet, either show me or if not acknowledge my agreement and move on.

    "We say, 'No, no, you just misunderstood, you thought I was saying X when I really said Y.' Or, even worse, sometimes we just stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the evidence in front of us."

    I made it pretty clear I doubt if anyone would play the same number every day for 33.5 years so the any question of it being a bad bet is mute if nobody is making that bet. I showed from the PA evening pick-3 predictions where it was possible to make a profit playing those predictions over the period of time they were made. Whether or not those predictors made a profit in the last 33.5 years or will continue in the next 33.5 years is mute because we were only examining one time period.

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: September 1, 2010, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

      Stack47,

      You're really wasting your time and mine.

      I think it would be of benefit to you if you spent some time going back over this thread.

      All the resources you need to keep your bets sufficiently spread over the Universes of each game are provided right here at LotteryPost.com, many of them free.  There is no need for you to pay charlatans for systems alleging to beat the odds.

      And I'm sorry, but it looks like I overestimated you in my last post above.

      --Jimmy4164

      "I think it would be of benefit to you if you spent some time going back over this thread."

      If would be more beneficial for you to look at all the forums so you can understand how people play pick-3 games. It doesn't matter to them how a group of three digit numbers are chosen as long that group produces hits. While you may not see the relevance of a TTT or Power Trails system, others might be making a profit playing those numbers. Ask someone that just hit a dream number the mean, median, and standard deviation of their overall bets and they'll think you're nuts.

      "All the resources you need to keep your bets sufficiently spread over the Universes of each game are provided right here at LotteryPost.com, many of them free.  There is no need for you to pay charlatans for systems alleging to beat the odds."

      That I will agree with.

      "And I'm sorry, but it looks like I overestimated you in my last post above."

      What you're misunderstanding is I know once players choose to make a bet, it's useless telling them why it was a bad bet. Everyone knows or should know making a bet with odds of 999 to 1 against them with a payoff of $499 to $1 isn't a very good bet, but once they decide to make that bet, we can either help them to improve their odds or say nothing at all.


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        Posted: September 1, 2010, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

        "Reading between the lines above, I can see you're starting to cave."

        When I entered this thread I assumed you were trying to develop a pick-3 system because after all this is the "Lottery Systems" forum. If you recall you invited me when I was discussing a MM wheel using all the wps and all the bonus numbers so I thought you had a pick-3 method using all the digits. I guess I was fooled by the title of the thread and because of the forum.

        "None of us really likes to admit being wrong. "

        What I don't understand is why when I agreed with you that making the same bet everyday throughout the history of any pick-3 game would be a bad bet, you continue to say I'm wrong. If there is a way to make it a good bet, either show me or if not acknowledge my agreement and move on.

        "We say, 'No, no, you just misunderstood, you thought I was saying X when I really said Y.' Or, even worse, sometimes we just stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the evidence in front of us."

        I made it pretty clear I doubt if anyone would play the same number every day for 33.5 years so the any question of it being a bad bet is mute if nobody is making that bet. I showed from the PA evening pick-3 predictions where it was possible to make a profit playing those predictions over the period of time they were made. Whether or not those predictors made a profit in the last 33.5 years or will continue in the next 33.5 years is mute because we were only examining one time period.

        Stack47,

        "What I don't understand is why when I agreed with you that making the same bet everyday throughout the history of any pick-3 game would be a bad bet, you continue to say I'm wrong."

        Obviously, you didn't go back and look, as I suggested.  If you had, you would have found that I DID NOT say you were wrong for saying what I just highlighted above in Blue.  I said you were wrong about several other things, including how you interpreted the TRUTH of what I highlighted here in Blue.

        I really hope this paragraph clears this up for you!

        (Assuming it did!)

        As an exercise, why not investigate the idea that Pick-3 games are really Lottos in Disguise, and as such, may be approached with Systems, the same as you would a Pick-(5,39).

        Envision the machine used for the typical Pick-5 Lotto Ping Pong Ball selection but with 30 balls inside, numbered:

        0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

        The selections are made the same way as with Pick-5, with the exception that the ORDER of the 3 picks is important, and is recorded.  (It is used for the "Jackpot" prize.)  If you pay the winners holding Straight tickets the $500 jackpot on a $1 ticket, and $80 and $160 for the two types of Box tickets, you basically have another Lotto game.  The Box tickets are substitutes for the consolation prizes of the bigger pot games.  (If this paragraph confuses you, please read it again, rather than go off half <snip>ed!)

        The general consensus here seems to be that PB and MM type games are Harder to win than Pick-5 & 6 games, apparently because people believe they are not as predictable. (I could be wrong on this point.) Regardless of the truth of that assumption, however, WHY would most people believe Pick-5 & 6 are better bets than Pick-3?  Using the same logic that convinces people to try to predict Pick-5&6 over PB and MM, shouldn't they be MORE convinced that Pick-3 is even EASIER to predict?  I would expect this to especially be true when considered in light of my description above that reveals Pick-3 as no more than a Pick-5 with less balls, lower ODDS, and smaller PAYOUTS.  I would have expected that those who believe in the predictability of these games would all gravitate to the simplest one of all!

        In summary: My reason for not playing Pick-3 is because of the puny jackpot, but many here avoid it because they think it is less beatable.

        Why do you think this is the case, Stack47?

        --Jimmy4164

        This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: September 1, 2010, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

          "I don't play pick3 or pick4 and I don't track them either."

          I told him at least five times playing the same number every day the entire history of any pick-3 game is a bad, bet but he keeps on saying I was wrong or confused. You may have to tell him you don't play the games or track them a few more time before it finally sinks in.

          I think Jimmy got my message, it's just that he was "fooled by all the positive stories" from pick3 players.  He wanted someone to explain to him how he could break even or make a profit playing the PA pick3 game and explain it clear enough that a computer program could be written to do the same.

          I explained to him the only person that could do that would be someone who tracked and played the PA pick3 game and if they could do it they probably wouldn't for fear of effecting their payouts.

          Jimmy was under the impression that all Pick3 game have fixed payouts and regardless of the amount that have to be paid out, they would never go pari-mutuel.  From what I've read about lottery games in general any of them can go pari-mutel if the state payouts will exceed a certain amount which is stated somewhere in their rules, it's just normally those limits are never reached.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       


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            Posted: September 1, 2010, 3:19 pm - IP Logged

            I think Jimmy got my message, it's just that he was "fooled by all the positive stories" from pick3 players.  He wanted someone to explain to him how he could break even or make a profit playing the PA pick3 game and explain it clear enough that a computer program could be written to do the same.

            I explained to him the only person that could do that would be someone who tracked and played the PA pick3 game and if they could do it they probably wouldn't for fear of effecting their payouts.

            Jimmy was under the impression that all Pick3 game have fixed payouts and regardless of the amount that have to be paid out, they would never go pari-mutuel.  From what I've read about lottery games in general any of them can go pari-mutel if the state payouts will exceed a certain amount which is stated somewhere in their rules, it's just normally those limits are never reached.

            Interesting aspect of the game in some states.

            When the cause of Pennsylvania reverting to a parimutuel payout in their Daily Number game is the result of the players overturning the state's 2 to 1 advantage, I'll pay some attention to it!

            Here's something that might interest you:

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219914/1761345

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: September 1, 2010, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

              Interesting aspect of the game in some states.

              When the cause of Pennsylvania reverting to a parimutuel payout in their Daily Number game is the result of the players overturning the state's 2 to 1 advantage, I'll pay some attention to it!

              Here's something that might interest you:

              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219914/1761345

              In Ohio the daily games don't go pari-mutuel but there's a limit to the amount that can be wagered on a number so if someone plan to bet heavy on a number they better be first or they may get shut out.  I think that's the way most states protect themselves with the number games.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       


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                Posted: September 2, 2010, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                Another System Test

                I'm in the middle of writing a more complex version of my backtester, one that hopefully will be accepted as truly showing the performance of a bonafide System that has claims of success.  In the meantime, since my current backtester version is so easily adapted to simple pattern matching, and recent events on the site gave me such a great idea for a new pattern to test, I decided to test it and post the results.  Then I'll get back to the new Backtester.

                My NEW idea is sort of a TTT style of computing, coupled with some letter value assignments that just might turn out to be lucky. I noticed that if you assign the value of the numerical position of the 26 letters of the alphabet to someone's name, and add them up, you get a convenient adder which can be used with the previous day's Pick-3 winner.  What I discovered is that:

                (R=18) + (E=5) + (D=4) + (T=20) + (O=15) + (A=1) + (D=4) totals up to 67!

                And if you multiply 67 by 2, you get 134.  Adding 134 Mod(1000) to yesterday's winning Pick-3 number results in a bet that turns out to do about as well as you can expect with a RNG. This is a mediocre performance at best, definitely not a $Winning one, but maybe a less mediocre choice of words for the letter value substitutions will do better in the future.

                Here are the results applied to the PA Daily Number Evening from March 1, 1977 thru August 31, 2010.

                1982/01/19   5 - 2 - 1 
                1982/01/20   6 - 5 - 5 ( 1 )    Remember, 655 is 521 + 134 MOD(1000)
                 
                1983/04/06   3 - 2 - 1 
                1983/04/07   4 - 5 - 5 ( 2 )
                 
                1984/01/26   6 - 1 - 6 
                1984/01/27   7 - 5 - 0 ( 3 )
                 
                1985/01/08   3 - 8 - 0 
                1985/01/09   5 - 1 - 4 ( 4 )
                 
                1987/06/08   3 - 9 - 5 
                1987/06/09   5 - 2 - 9 ( 5 )
                 
                1996/12/27   9 - 5 - 2 
                1996/12/28   0 - 8 - 6 ( 6 )
                 
                1997/02/08   8 - 8 - 8 
                1997/02/09   0 - 2 - 2 ( 7 )
                 
                1997/03/06   9 - 0 - 2 
                1997/03/07   0 - 3 - 6 ( 8 )
                 
                1998/01/02   5 - 2 - 2 
                1998/01/03   6 - 5 - 6 ( 9 )
                 
                2001/02/12   0 - 2 - 6 
                2001/02/13   1 - 6 - 0 ( 10 )
                 
                2001/03/26   8 - 4 - 0 
                2001/03/27   9 - 7 - 4 ( 11 )
                 
                2002/02/25   4 - 7 - 2 
                2002/02/26   6 - 0 - 6 ( 12 )

                I hope you are noticing that, again, no matter how arbitrary or complex you choose your number to bet on, it seems to want to always hit with a frequency you would expect using a RNG.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: September 2, 2010, 12:10 pm - IP Logged

                  Stack47,

                  "What I don't understand is why when I agreed with you that making the same bet everyday throughout the history of any pick-3 game would be a bad bet, you continue to say I'm wrong."

                  Obviously, you didn't go back and look, as I suggested.  If you had, you would have found that I DID NOT say you were wrong for saying what I just highlighted above in Blue.  I said you were wrong about several other things, including how you interpreted the TRUTH of what I highlighted here in Blue.

                  I really hope this paragraph clears this up for you!

                  (Assuming it did!)

                  As an exercise, why not investigate the idea that Pick-3 games are really Lottos in Disguise, and as such, may be approached with Systems, the same as you would a Pick-(5,39).

                  Envision the machine used for the typical Pick-5 Lotto Ping Pong Ball selection but with 30 balls inside, numbered:

                  0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

                  The selections are made the same way as with Pick-5, with the exception that the ORDER of the 3 picks is important, and is recorded.  (It is used for the "Jackpot" prize.)  If you pay the winners holding Straight tickets the $500 jackpot on a $1 ticket, and $80 and $160 for the two types of Box tickets, you basically have another Lotto game.  The Box tickets are substitutes for the consolation prizes of the bigger pot games.  (If this paragraph confuses you, please read it again, rather than go off half <snip>ed!)

                  The general consensus here seems to be that PB and MM type games are Harder to win than Pick-5 & 6 games, apparently because people believe they are not as predictable. (I could be wrong on this point.) Regardless of the truth of that assumption, however, WHY would most people believe Pick-5 & 6 are better bets than Pick-3?  Using the same logic that convinces people to try to predict Pick-5&6 over PB and MM, shouldn't they be MORE convinced that Pick-3 is even EASIER to predict?  I would expect this to especially be true when considered in light of my description above that reveals Pick-3 as no more than a Pick-5 with less balls, lower ODDS, and smaller PAYOUTS.  I would have expected that those who believe in the predictability of these games would all gravitate to the simplest one of all!

                  In summary: My reason for not playing Pick-3 is because of the puny jackpot, but many here avoid it because they think it is less beatable.

                  Why do you think this is the case, Stack47?

                  --Jimmy4164

                  This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                  "The general consensus here seems to be that PB and MM type games are Harder to win than Pick-5 & 6 games, apparently because people believe they are not as predictable. (I could be wrong on this point.)"

                  Just looking at the odds of matching 5 numbers without the bonus numbers is enough reason for me to choose a 5/39 game over 5/56 or 5/59 games. It's almost seven times harder in MM and nine times for PB. If that's not reason enough, matching 4 numbers is five and six times harder but the prize is less. The match 3 prize is less too with higher odds against and there is no prize for matching 2 numbers. These comparison statistics are from the Ohio Lottery Rolling Cash 5 game with a jackpot starting at $100,000 verses the fixed $250,000 for MM and $200,000 for PB. Matching 4 numbers pays $300 vs $150, 3 matches pays $10 vs $7 and 2 matches is $1 vs nothing.

                  Coupled with the necessity to match the bonus ball for other secondary prizes and of course to win the jackpot, I think a 5/39 gives players a much better chance.

                  "Regardless of the truth of that assumption, however, WHY would most people believe Pick-5 & 6 are better bets than Pick-3?"

                  I wouldn't compare playing a lotto game to playing a pick-3 simply because of the top prizes. People with a couple bucks to wager are more likely to place it on a chance to win millions compared to a chance to win $500. More money is wagered on pick-3 games than on pick-5 games so it looks like more players believe pick-3 is a better bet. I believe pick-5 is a better bet because of my playing strategy which is designed so I can take advantage of the secondary prizes. It's not unusual for a pick-3 player to go weeks without a collection where a pick-5 player could get back something every drawing.

                  "I would expect this to especially be true when considered in light of my description above that reveals Pick-3 as no more than a Pick-5 with less balls, lower ODDS, and smaller PAYOUTS."

                  The best coverage you can get out of a pick-3 $10 bet is 120 combos or a 1 in 7.3 chances of winning $40 or $41.50. By playing 10 straight with 6-way box combos the odds are 1 in 990 of winning $250 and 1 in 15.66 of winning $40 or $41.50. The overall odds of winning a prize playing pick-5 is 1 in 9 so a $10 bet should get back at least $1 whether the play is 10 QPs or putting all 39 numbers into 10 combos.

                  "In summary: My reason for not playing Pick-3 is because of the puny jackpot, but many here avoid it because they think it is less beatable."

                  With 10 chances to win the jackpot, $300, $10 to break even, or at least getting $1 back compared to the odds against winning anything playing pick-3, playing pick-5 sure looks like the better bet to me.


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                    Posted: September 2, 2010, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

                    "The general consensus here seems to be that PB and MM type games are Harder to win than Pick-5 & 6 games, apparently because people believe they are not as predictable. (I could be wrong on this point.)"

                    Just looking at the odds of matching 5 numbers without the bonus numbers is enough reason for me to choose a 5/39 game over 5/56 or 5/59 games. It's almost seven times harder in MM and nine times for PB. If that's not reason enough, matching 4 numbers is five and six times harder but the prize is less. The match 3 prize is less too with higher odds against and there is no prize for matching 2 numbers. These comparison statistics are from the Ohio Lottery Rolling Cash 5 game with a jackpot starting at $100,000 verses the fixed $250,000 for MM and $200,000 for PB. Matching 4 numbers pays $300 vs $150, 3 matches pays $10 vs $7 and 2 matches is $1 vs nothing.

                    Coupled with the necessity to match the bonus ball for other secondary prizes and of course to win the jackpot, I think a 5/39 gives players a much better chance.

                    "Regardless of the truth of that assumption, however, WHY would most people believe Pick-5 & 6 are better bets than Pick-3?"

                    I wouldn't compare playing a lotto game to playing a pick-3 simply because of the top prizes. People with a couple bucks to wager are more likely to place it on a chance to win millions compared to a chance to win $500. More money is wagered on pick-3 games than on pick-5 games so it looks like more players believe pick-3 is a better bet. I believe pick-5 is a better bet because of my playing strategy which is designed so I can take advantage of the secondary prizes. It's not unusual for a pick-3 player to go weeks without a collection where a pick-5 player could get back something every drawing.

                    "I would expect this to especially be true when considered in light of my description above that reveals Pick-3 as no more than a Pick-5 with less balls, lower ODDS, and smaller PAYOUTS."

                    The best coverage you can get out of a pick-3 $10 bet is 120 combos or a 1 in 7.3 chances of winning $40 or $41.50. By playing 10 straight with 6-way box combos the odds are 1 in 990 of winning $250 and 1 in 15.66 of winning $40 or $41.50. The overall odds of winning a prize playing pick-5 is 1 in 9 so a $10 bet should get back at least $1 whether the play is 10 QPs or putting all 39 numbers into 10 combos.

                    "In summary: My reason for not playing Pick-3 is because of the puny jackpot, but many here avoid it because they think it is less beatable."

                    With 10 chances to win the jackpot, $300, $10 to break even, or at least getting $1 back compared to the odds against winning anything playing pick-3, playing pick-5 sure looks like the better bet to me.

                    Stack47,

                    Thanks for a reasonable statement of your position.  I don't agree with everything above, especially your tendency to mix "Odds" with "Payouts," but since I've addressed these issues several times already, I don't think it's worth nit-picking your post.

                    What I think your post above illustrates very well, although you didn't intend to do it, is that the various betting styles and game choices you mentioned must be made by each individual player based on their comfort for "Draw Downs."  The Pick-3 player will have much longer dry spells than the (5,39) player, as you point out, but the bottom line is, they BOTH face games with the same "Expected Value."  In PA that number is 50¢ on the $.  My main reason for preferring (5,43) [in PA] over their Pick-3 is knowing that even though I may have to wait a thousand years to hit the jackpot, I at least have that chance, and my wife and I can have fun planning Faux vacations!  All pick-3 players can do is look forward to collecting $500 once in a while after spending $1000 for the opportunity.  To each his/her own.

                    --Jimmy4164

                    p.s. Stay Tuned!

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: September 2, 2010, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                      Stack47,

                      Thanks for a reasonable statement of your position.  I don't agree with everything above, especially your tendency to mix "Odds" with "Payouts," but since I've addressed these issues several times already, I don't think it's worth nit-picking your post.

                      What I think your post above illustrates very well, although you didn't intend to do it, is that the various betting styles and game choices you mentioned must be made by each individual player based on their comfort for "Draw Downs."  The Pick-3 player will have much longer dry spells than the (5,39) player, as you point out, but the bottom line is, they BOTH face games with the same "Expected Value."  In PA that number is 50¢ on the $.  My main reason for preferring (5,43) [in PA] over their Pick-3 is knowing that even though I may have to wait a thousand years to hit the jackpot, I at least have that chance, and my wife and I can have fun planning Faux vacations!  All pick-3 players can do is look forward to collecting $500 once in a while after spending $1000 for the opportunity.  To each his/her own.

                      --Jimmy4164

                      p.s. Stay Tuned!

                      Betting styles are why players choose one game over another and that's why I gave a couple example of what could be done with $10. I've seen people hooked on pick-3 and wager $100 or more on one drawing when ever they can and some of the potential wins are in the thousands. They will probably lose in the long run even if the "catch a number" for $10,000 at the beginning because their next bets will be $200 or $300 with even higher win potentials.

                      Someone playing $10 or more on 5/39 pick-5 games needs those 3 number matches consistently to stay in the game. Most gambling is about making the profit off house money and the lottery is no exception. The house knows this and that's why 50 cents on every dollar stays in the house. One of the most interesting statistics I saw was the Ohio Lottery's 20 year average "win" on their pick-3 game which was 51%.

                      It's not that I'm trying to mix odds of the bet winning with the payoff odds, but that seems to be how players justify chasing the huge PB and MM jackpots. Over $42 million was wagered on last week's $133 million jackpot compared to $17 million after the jackpot was hit. It's more obvious that some players don't care about payoff odds especially when you see them bragging about catching a hit from a list of numbers where the cost of play exceeds the win potential.

                        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                        Harbinger
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                        Posted: September 2, 2010, 8:56 pm - IP Logged

                        Randomness, shmandomness.  Here is a random thought........................."If you ain't in it you cain't win it!" another random thought............"You ain't nuthin' if you ain't up in that game!"..............................and another random thought..........................."It is only a theory unless you play the dang thing.".....................'Pi$$$iiingggg in the wind is (fill in the blank)_____________________________________."


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                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
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                          Posted: September 3, 2010, 10:29 am - IP Logged

                          Betting styles are why players choose one game over another and that's why I gave a couple example of what could be done with $10. I've seen people hooked on pick-3 and wager $100 or more on one drawing when ever they can and some of the potential wins are in the thousands. They will probably lose in the long run even if the "catch a number" for $10,000 at the beginning because their next bets will be $200 or $300 with even higher win potentials.

                          Someone playing $10 or more on 5/39 pick-5 games needs those 3 number matches consistently to stay in the game. Most gambling is about making the profit off house money and the lottery is no exception. The house knows this and that's why 50 cents on every dollar stays in the house. One of the most interesting statistics I saw was the Ohio Lottery's 20 year average "win" on their pick-3 game which was 51%.

                          It's not that I'm trying to mix odds of the bet winning with the payoff odds, but that seems to be how players justify chasing the huge PB and MM jackpots. Over $42 million was wagered on last week's $133 million jackpot compared to $17 million after the jackpot was hit. It's more obvious that some players don't care about payoff odds especially when you see them bragging about catching a hit from a list of numbers where the cost of play exceeds the win potential.

                          Stack47,

                          If you click here you will see that I need some help in this other thread.  I know you don't have much interest in Pick-3 games, but I think you've been around here long enough that you might be able to answer the question that I can not get answered there.

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

                          --Jimmy4164


                            United States
                            Member #93947
                            July 10, 2010
                            2180 Posts
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                            Posted: September 3, 2010, 10:41 am - IP Logged

                            Stack47,

                            If you click here you will see that I need some help in this other thread.  I know you don't have much interest in Pick-3 games, but I think you've been around here long enough that you might be able to answer the question that I can not get answered there.

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

                            --Jimmy4164

                            P.S.  These Link problems are annoying!

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

                             

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19831 Posts
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                              Posted: September 3, 2010, 11:34 am - IP Logged

                              Stack47,

                              If you click here you will see that I need some help in this other thread.  I know you don't have much interest in Pick-3 games, but I think you've been around here long enough that you might be able to answer the question that I can not get answered there.

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

                              --Jimmy4164

                              Jimmy,

                              You're probably going to find some of these systems posted by LP members are not completely static, they are dynamic and involve intuition and hunches based on past experience which can't be easily explained or digitized in a computer program which makes back testing of them impossible.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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