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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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Posted: September 9, 2010, 6:08 am - IP Logged

Truecritic,

I suspect they are waiting for me to publish the full test, including a large Box.net file of the details, so they can claim it is invalid for some reason that they could easily assert here right now.

Are you prepared to guess how many $500 hits that TTT produces to offset the tickets purchased over the 33 ½ years?

--Jimmy4164

I went through the entire thread of twedk's - this figure may not be exact because of the way she reports hits.  From Jan to Aug for NY, 61 hits.  7.26 hits per month for what appears to be 10 numbers played per day.  I believe those hits are box bets.  Although I saw some straights mentioned.

Open up the results and let's take a peek...Drum...drum roll...

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: September 9, 2010, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

    Twedk recently called for using the last day of the previous month for TTT calculations.  Maybe that would have produced more than the one match for August that you found.  Even though noone is clear about the bet selection process and how many tickets need to be purchased per day, I guess I can safely assume that August was not a very good month with the rules you chose. Smiley

    I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine.  Once you've drawn 3 balls from it and remember the order, you can always map your way back into your [000-999] scheme so you'll know which tickets are the winners.

    Why do I bring this up?  Because I'm hoping someone will see that most of the systems applied to Pick-5 & 6 games can just as easily be applied to this (3,30) game.  More importantly, when viewed this way, it should reveal that there is no real mathematical difference between 3 [0..9] digits drawn from each of three machines and 3 digits [1...30] drawn from one machine.

    By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

    "I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine."

    Statistically all 30 digits are only needed in 1% of all the drawings (triples) so why not make it a 3/20 lotto?


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      Posted: September 9, 2010, 2:33 pm - IP Logged

      I went through the entire thread of twedk's - this figure may not be exact because of the way she reports hits.  From Jan to Aug for NY, 61 hits.  7.26 hits per month for what appears to be 10 numbers played per day.  I believe those hits are box bets.  Although I saw some straights mentioned.

      Open up the results and let's take a peek...Drum...drum roll...

      Truecritic,

      What I was hoping was that you would try a prediction of the results using Probability Theory!

      I hope all my time and energy spent writing programs and presenting people with the actual results of system play will result in at least a few seeing the light.  Most of this would not be necessary if more people understood and accepted what those 17th Century French mathematicians figured out so long ago!  Unhappy

      http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219401/1763411

      Twedk's TTT system starts with 16 potential numbers to bet on and reduces that number through [as yet] undefined screening techniques.  I suspect one of them is the one I am using in my backtest, removing repeats.   The issue of BOXed bets is a NON-Issue.  PA pays $500 on a $1 Straight ticket, $80 on a $1 Box of [ I-J-K ] where I, J, and K are unique, and $160 on a $1 Box of [ I-I-J ], where I <> J.  I hope it will not be necessary to convince anyone that a test of the 16 (minus repeats) numbers played Straight will be sufficient to test the viability of this TTT method.  On the issue of the undefined screening methods, I am assuming the following:

      The fact that Twedk is suggesting the 16 numbers derived from the winning number of the last day of the previous month implies that she believes these 16, as a group, are more likely to hit than the other 984 possibilities.  Now, the assumption I am going to make is that any of these discarded numbers are being discarded because it is believed they are NO BETTER than chance bets.  Since I am leaving them in the set to be bet on, IF a player has an edge in his/her discard process, THEN my percentage of hits will be reduced by their inclusion, but on average, to no less than chance.  HOWEVER, I hope everyone can see that regardless of this disclaimer, IF this TTT calculation is a profitable method of betting, OR in the least, REDUCES LOSSES OVER QPs, this Backtest will reveal it.

      I'm embarrased! Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, if they could have looked this far into the future back in 1654, would have LTAO!  Embarassed

      --Jimmy4164

        Someone could surely make a case that these repeats should be left in and bet on; one could conjecture that they appeared multiple times because they are more likely to win!

      The following is a result of the TTT described earlier in this thread applied to the PA Daily Number (Evening) from 1977/03/01 through 2010/09/08.  The results file is available at Box.net using the following URL:

      http://www.box.net/shared/p8k0esm9or

      If anyone can find a Hit in this period of time that my program missed, PLEASE POST IT!

      Here are 3 hits at the beginning, 3 from the middle, and the last 3.

      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1977/07/02 Winning Draw == 9-0-7          ( Hits: 1 )
      1977/06/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 1120 )
      9-8-3 
      0-0-4 
      9-8-7 
      0-0-4  0-0-8  0-9-8  3-0-9  3-4-7  4-0-8  4-7-8  8-0-8 
      8-3-4  8-9-0  9-0-7  9-0-9  9-8-3  9-8-7 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1977/07/08 Winning Draw == 8-0-8          ( Hits: 2 )
      1977/06/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 1190 )
      9-8-3 
      0-0-4 
      9-8-7 
      0-0-4  0-0-8  0-9-8  3-0-9  3-4-7  4-0-8  4-7-8  8-0-8 
      8-3-4  8-9-0  9-0-7  9-0-9  9-8-3  9-8-7 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1977/09/01 Winning Draw == 2-1-7          ( Hits: 3 )
      1977/08/31 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 1875 )
      1-7-6 
      2-9-7 
      3-6-3 
      1-2-3  1-7-6  1-9-3  2-1-7  2-9-6  2-9-7  3-6-3  6-3-2 
      6-7-3  6-9-3  7-3-6  7-6-7  7-9-6  7-9-7 

      ===============G A P==================

      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1993/12/02 Winning Draw == 8-3-6          ( Hits: 79 )
      1993/11/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 80096 )
      8-3-6 
      9-5-7 
      7-8-3 
      3-5-8  3-6-7  6-5-7  6-7-3  7-3-8  7-5-3  7-5-8  7-8-3 
      8-3-6  8-5-3  8-7-9  8-9-7  9-5-3  9-5-7  9-5-8  9-8-3 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1993/12/03 Winning Draw == 7-8-3          ( Hits: 80 )
      1993/11/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 80112 )
      8-3-6 
      9-5-7 
      7-8-3 
      3-5-8  3-6-7  6-5-7  6-7-3  7-3-8  7-5-3  7-5-8  7-8-3 
      8-3-6  8-5-3  8-7-9  8-9-7  9-5-3  9-5-7  9-5-8  9-8-3 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      1993/12/12 Winning Draw == 7-5-8          ( Hits: 81 )
      1993/11/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 80256 )
      8-3-6 
      9-5-7 
      7-8-3 
      3-5-8  3-6-7  6-5-7  6-7-3  7-3-8  7-5-3  7-5-8  7-8-3 
      8-3-6  8-5-3  8-7-9  8-9-7  9-5-3  9-5-7  9-5-8  9-8-3 

      ===============G A P==================

      --------------------------------------------------------------
      2010/04/04 Winning Draw == 8-6-5          ( Hits: 160 )
      2010/03/31 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 168980 )
      2-4-8 
      3-6-9 
      5-0-7 
      0-5-3  2-3-5  2-4-8  2-6-7  3-2-4  3-6-0  3-6-4  3-6-9 
      4-6-0  4-8-9  5-0-7  8-6-5  8-9-7  9-6-0  9-6-4  9-7-0 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      2010/05/18 Winning Draw == 6-1-6          ( Hits: 161 )
      2010/04/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 169666 )
      5-7-4 
      6-9-5 
      1-6-9 
      1-6-9  4-5-9  4-9-1  5-6-1  5-7-4  5-9-6  5-9-7  5-9-9 
      6-1-6  6-5-7  6-9-5  6-9-6  6-9-7  7-4-5  7-9-6 
      --------------------------------------------------------------
      2010/05/19 Winning Draw == 6-9-5          ( Hits: 162 )
      2010/04/30 ( TTT )                 (Straight Bets: 169681 )
      5-7-4 
      6-9-5 
      1-6-9 
      1-6-9  4-5-9  4-9-1  5-6-1  5-7-4  5-9-6  5-9-7  5-9-9 
      6-1-6  6-5-7  6-9-5  6-9-6  6-9-7  7-4-5  7-9-6 

      Remember, each Straight Bet costs $1 and each Hit pays $500.

      Does THIS help shed light for you on why System Players win in

      proportion to their ticket purchases when compared to QP players?


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        Posted: September 9, 2010, 3:13 pm - IP Logged

        "I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine."

        Statistically all 30 digits are only needed in 1% of all the drawings (triples) so why not make it a 3/20 lotto?

        Stack47,

        Statistically all 30 digits are only needed in 1% of all the drawings (triples) so why not make it a 3/20 lotto?

        "Interesting" thinking.  But then we'd miss all the fun like they just had in NC!  Besides, if you're going to do that, why not a (1/10) so we'd have TONS of winners every day!  And you already know precisely what digits you COULD HAVE eliminated immediately AFTER each drawing anyway!

        The BIG question to be answered when betting under your belief system in Pick 3, 4, 5, 6, PB and MM, is who or what will decide which balls to NOT bet on.

        Will it be Stack47?

        Will it be RL-RANDOMLOGIC?

        Will it be RedToad?

        Will you use a Random Number Generator?

        OR, will you conduct Polls here at LP?

        --Jimmy4164

          truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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          Posted: September 9, 2010, 7:28 pm - IP Logged
           Original Post by jimmy4164

          What I was hoping was that you would try a prediction of the results using Probability Theory!

          I hope all my time and energy spent writing programs and presenting people with the actual results of system play will result in at least a few seeing the light. 

           

          I didn't feel it was necessary to do the math - if you can recall way back, I sent you a PM with my prediction for TTT.  Note the date below.  Thanks for spending time running it.

           

          — Previous Private Message —
          Sent By: truecritic
          Sent: August 11, 2010, 10:53 am

          Hi jimmy,

          Re: my post to you at http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/217100/1738638

          Well before you run a TTT back test - I wanted to make a prediction.   System pick vs Quick pick - I think it won't beat the QPs.   I hope you do run the test, I'd like to see the results! 

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: September 9, 2010, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

            Stack47,

            Statistically all 30 digits are only needed in 1% of all the drawings (triples) so why not make it a 3/20 lotto?

            "Interesting" thinking.  But then we'd miss all the fun like they just had in NC!  Besides, if you're going to do that, why not a (1/10) so we'd have TONS of winners every day!  And you already know precisely what digits you COULD HAVE eliminated immediately AFTER each drawing anyway!

            The BIG question to be answered when betting under your belief system in Pick 3, 4, 5, 6, PB and MM, is who or what will decide which balls to NOT bet on.

            Will it be Stack47?

            Will it be RL-RANDOMLOGIC?

            Will it be RedToad?

            Will you use a Random Number Generator?

            OR, will you conduct Polls here at LP?

            --Jimmy4164

            How many triples hit in PA over the last 33.5 years?

            Whatever that number is, I know for a fact by using each digit twice instead of three times would give a player over 11,000 chances to win compared to probably under 150 known losses.

            "Besides, if you're going to do that, why not a (1/10) so we'd have TONS of winners every day!"

            First of all it would be a 3/10 lotto and all anybody has to do is look at the probability for the next 1000 drawings. If someone wanted to play it as a 3/10 lotto, they will get about 720 chances of winning. Nobody really cares how many times three different digits hit in PA over the last 33.5 years or even since Arlen Specter because a US Senator, but I'll bet it's close to 72%.

            "The BIG question to be answered when betting under your belief system in Pick 3, 4, 5, 6, PB and MM, is who or what will decide which balls to NOT bet on."

            Nobody is talking about eliminating any useful pick-3 digits. Even if the number of triples exceeds all probability by hitting 230 times in the PA history, it would still give a player a chance of winning in 98% of all the drawings. However I'm also willing to bet you'll keep on believing players play the same combos in every drawing for the same wager and you'll keep on giving useless information.


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              Posted: September 9, 2010, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

              How many triples hit in PA over the last 33.5 years?

              Whatever that number is, I know for a fact by using each digit twice instead of three times would give a player over 11,000 chances to win compared to probably under 150 known losses.

              "Besides, if you're going to do that, why not a (1/10) so we'd have TONS of winners every day!"

              First of all it would be a 3/10 lotto and all anybody has to do is look at the probability for the next 1000 drawings. If someone wanted to play it as a 3/10 lotto, they will get about 720 chances of winning. Nobody really cares how many times three different digits hit in PA over the last 33.5 years or even since Arlen Specter because a US Senator, but I'll bet it's close to 72%.

              "The BIG question to be answered when betting under your belief system in Pick 3, 4, 5, 6, PB and MM, is who or what will decide which balls to NOT bet on."

              Nobody is talking about eliminating any useful pick-3 digits. Even if the number of triples exceeds all probability by hitting 230 times in the PA history, it would still give a player a chance of winning in 98% of all the drawings. However I'm also willing to bet you'll keep on believing players play the same combos in every drawing for the same wager and you'll keep on giving useless information.

              Stack47,

              Pascal and Fermat were idiots.

              You know better.

              Dream on!

              --Jimmy4164


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                Posted: September 11, 2010, 5:22 pm - IP Logged
                 Original Post by jimmy4164

                What I was hoping was that you would try a prediction of the results using Probability Theory!

                I hope all my time and energy spent writing programs and presenting people with the actual results of system play will result in at least a few seeing the light. 

                 

                I didn't feel it was necessary to do the math - if you can recall way back, I sent you a PM with my prediction for TTT.  Note the date below.  Thanks for spending time running it.

                 

                — Previous Private Message —
                Sent By: truecritic
                Sent: August 11, 2010, 10:53 am

                Hi jimmy,

                Re: my post to you at http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/217100/1738638

                Well before you run a TTT back test - I wanted to make a prediction.   System pick vs Quick pick - I think it won't beat the QPs.   I hope you do run the test, I'd like to see the results! 

                Sorry truecritic, for not giving credit where it's due.  After all the heated discussions and backtesting, I had forgotten about your prediction.

                  truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                  Posted: September 12, 2010, 3:11 am - IP Logged

                  Sorry truecritic, for not giving credit where it's due.  After all the heated discussions and backtesting, I had forgotten about your prediction.

                  No problem.  Thumbs Up


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                    Posted: September 13, 2010, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                    TTT Players!

                    Click here to see the results of more Backtests and information on Twedk's TTT system. 

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1773842

                      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                      Posted: September 16, 2010, 10:20 am - IP Logged

                      Other than the workout I proposed previously, I have thought up another workout that might be of interest.

                      Previous: Post a Pick3 workout for the entire 33 yrs showing (A) A random pick. Played until it wins.  Then (B) another random pick until it wins. etc;  (C) How many runs through the entire 33 years does it take to produce a profit over the 33yr data, using random picks?

                      New: Might be able to add this into the same workout?  How many games does it take before a random pick wins a Pick3?  I don't want the average, I'd like to see a histogram or bell curve to determine the amount of games for most random picks to pick a winner.


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                        Posted: September 16, 2010, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                        Other than the workout I proposed previously, I have thought up another workout that might be of interest.

                        Previous: Post a Pick3 workout for the entire 33 yrs showing (A) A random pick. Played until it wins.  Then (B) another random pick until it wins. etc;  (C) How many runs through the entire 33 years does it take to produce a profit over the 33yr data, using random picks?

                        New: Might be able to add this into the same workout?  How many games does it take before a random pick wins a Pick3?  I don't want the average, I'd like to see a histogram or bell curve to determine the amount of games for most random picks to pick a winner.

                        Truecritic,

                        I think some of your questions are answered here:

                        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736549

                        It's not worth my time to write any more programs that will do no more than illustrate the fact that Straight bets on Pick 3 games have a winning frequency of 1 per thousand bets.  Regardless of whether you play the same number every day, use a RNG to pick a new one each day, play the number that hit one week ago, or use a TTT or RL system to pick one, at the end of 33 years of betting, the results will be the same.  You will have lost approximately ½ of all the money you spent buying tickets. 

                        --Jimmy4164


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                          Posted: September 18, 2010, 9:25 pm - IP Logged

                          Be sure to keep up to date with MadDog's Challenge here:

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220561/1778864

                          At some point, the summation of the results there will be examined here to take a closer look at its implications for system play.


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                            Posted: September 18, 2010, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Hey jimmy4164, has any of your expertise analyzing the stock market helped you with more wins in a p-3 environment?

                            I'm very interested to know this.

                            Thanx.....

                             


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                              Posted: September 18, 2010, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

                              Hey jimmy4164, has any of your expertise analyzing the stock market helped you with more wins in a p-3 environment?

                              I'm very interested to know this.

                              Thanx.....

                               

                              joker17,

                              Thanks for asking.

                              Absolutely NOT!

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
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