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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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Posted: September 3, 2010, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

Jimmy,

You're probably going to find some of these systems posted by LP members are not completely static, they are dynamic and involve intuition and hunches based on past experience which can't be easily explained or digitized in a computer program which makes back testing of them impossible.

RJOh,

And why would you believe that "intuition and hunches based on past experience" have anything at all to do with the behaviour of Ping Pong Balls responding to air turbulance?

--Jimmy4164

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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    Posted: September 3, 2010, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

    RJOh,

    And why would you believe that "intuition and hunches based on past experience" have anything at all to do with the behaviour of Ping Pong Balls responding to air turbulance?

    --Jimmy4164

    I only commented "intuition and hunches based on past experience" is how many posters explain the decisions they make when using their systems which makes it impossible to duplicate their results or back test their systems.  I never said it had anything to do with the behavior of ping pong balls, where did you get that?

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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      Posted: September 3, 2010, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

      RJOh,

      And why would you believe that "intuition and hunches based on past experience" have anything at all to do with the behaviour of Ping Pong Balls responding to air turbulance?

      --Jimmy4164

      (your links are still messed up - same problem, extra wording within the link). 

      Here is the correct link:  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

      Here is where your link points to: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/thread/207517/1763243         

      Not at all familiar with FireFox, so I can't offer a cure.

       

      From reading the latest responses, it appears twedk is using "intuition and hunches" to pick out the actual numbers to be played.


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        Posted: September 3, 2010, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

        I only commented "intuition and hunches based on past experience" is how many posters explain the decisions they make when using their systems which makes it impossible to duplicate their results or back test their systems.  I never said it had anything to do with the behavior of ping pong balls, where did you get that?

        The implication of using intuition and hunches to select lottery bets is that somehow the action of the balls can be divined that way.  I guess I made the incorrect assumption that you agree with that theory.  Sorry - my error.

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: September 3, 2010, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

          Stack47,

          If you click here you will see that I need some help in this other thread.  I know you don't have much interest in Pick-3 games, but I think you've been around here long enough that you might be able to answer the question that I can not get answered there.

          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

          --Jimmy4164

          Aw, the old TTT system!

          A guy showed me a version of TTT the day after I hit my license plate number (647) straight on the second ever Ohio Pick-3 drawing. He put the previous drawing in the middle row, subtracted 1 for the first digit on the top row, and added 1 for the bottom row. He added and subtracted 2 for the second position, and 3 for the third. His explanation was using a true TTT; vertically, diagonal, and horizontal creating 7 three digit numbers. Said it worked for the old numbers game. Can't back test anything from just two drawings so I decided to play my address instead.

          TTT workouts are loosely based on the "magic squares", creates 9 digits on the board, and can have up to 84 three digit combos depending on how many repetitive digits. The probability using 9 different digits is 1 hit every 3 drawings so that type of TTT does produce hits, but for profitability one would have to play a less number of combos. From what I read in the other thread, there is no real system for choosing which combos to play.

          By using the add 011 and 110 TTT method to the August 1 PA evening drawings, the results show 513, 634, and 147. By combining all those digits, there was only 1 three digit match in the month of August. (Which oddly enough  was my three digit house address from 30 years ago!)

          To get better results using the first drawing of the month, they would need a consistent method to create 5 or 6 different digits to use with a number like 513. From there they could use your A - I method to find the 4 or 5 most consistent digits over the past year and maybe create an interesting system.

          To me playing the pick-3 is boring because of all the drawing between hits even with a above break-even system.


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            Posted: September 3, 2010, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

            Aw, the old TTT system!

            A guy showed me a version of TTT the day after I hit my license plate number (647) straight on the second ever Ohio Pick-3 drawing. He put the previous drawing in the middle row, subtracted 1 for the first digit on the top row, and added 1 for the bottom row. He added and subtracted 2 for the second position, and 3 for the third. His explanation was using a true TTT; vertically, diagonal, and horizontal creating 7 three digit numbers. Said it worked for the old numbers game. Can't back test anything from just two drawings so I decided to play my address instead.

            TTT workouts are loosely based on the "magic squares", creates 9 digits on the board, and can have up to 84 three digit combos depending on how many repetitive digits. The probability using 9 different digits is 1 hit every 3 drawings so that type of TTT does produce hits, but for profitability one would have to play a less number of combos. From what I read in the other thread, there is no real system for choosing which combos to play.

            By using the add 011 and 110 TTT method to the August 1 PA evening drawings, the results show 513, 634, and 147. By combining all those digits, there was only 1 three digit match in the month of August. (Which oddly enough  was my three digit house address from 30 years ago!)

            To get better results using the first drawing of the month, they would need a consistent method to create 5 or 6 different digits to use with a number like 513. From there they could use your A - I method to find the 4 or 5 most consistent digits over the past year and maybe create an interesting system.

            To me playing the pick-3 is boring because of all the drawing between hits even with a above break-even system.

            Twedk recently called for using the last day of the previous month for TTT calculations.  Maybe that would have produced more than the one match for August that you found.  Even though noone is clear about the bet selection process and how many tickets need to be purchased per day, I guess I can safely assume that August was not a very good month with the rules you chose. Smiley

            I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine.  Once you've drawn 3 balls from it and remember the order, you can always map your way back into your [000-999] scheme so you'll know which tickets are the winners.

            Why do I bring this up?  Because I'm hoping someone will see that most of the systems applied to Pick-5 & 6 games can just as easily be applied to this (3,30) game.  More importantly, when viewed this way, it should reveal that there is no real mathematical difference between 3 [0..9] digits drawn from each of three machines and 3 digits [1...30] drawn from one machine.

            By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

              truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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              Posted: September 4, 2010, 8:10 am - IP Logged

              Twedk recently called for using the last day of the previous month for TTT calculations.  Maybe that would have produced more than the one match for August that you found.  Even though noone is clear about the bet selection process and how many tickets need to be purchased per day, I guess I can safely assume that August was not a very good month with the rules you chose. Smiley

              I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine.  Once you've drawn 3 balls from it and remember the order, you can always map your way back into your [000-999] scheme so you'll know which tickets are the winners.

              Why do I bring this up?  Because I'm hoping someone will see that most of the systems applied to Pick-5 & 6 games can just as easily be applied to this (3,30) game.  More importantly, when viewed this way, it should reveal that there is no real mathematical difference between 3 [0..9] digits drawn from each of three machines and 3 digits [1...30] drawn from one machine.

              By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

              Original Post by jimmy4164

              By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

               

              They have been around quite awhile.


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                Posted: September 4, 2010, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

                Original Post by jimmy4164

                By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

                 

                They have been around quite awhile.

                Should this endurance cause one to believe they must be money makers?  Smiley

                  truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                  Posted: September 4, 2010, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Should this endurance cause one to believe they must be money makers?  Smiley

                  THAT is the question we are waiting for you to answer with a workout(s)!   Smile

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                    Posted: September 4, 2010, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

                    Twedk recently called for using the last day of the previous month for TTT calculations.  Maybe that would have produced more than the one match for August that you found.  Even though noone is clear about the bet selection process and how many tickets need to be purchased per day, I guess I can safely assume that August was not a very good month with the rules you chose. Smiley

                    I'm surprized noone has shown any interest in the (3,30) Lotto I suggested recently.  If you add sub-labels to the 30 balls from the three Pick-3 machines [1…30] and dump them into an unused Pick-5 machine...  Voila!  You've got a (3,30) Lotto machine.  Once you've drawn 3 balls from it and remember the order, you can always map your way back into your [000-999] scheme so you'll know which tickets are the winners.

                    Why do I bring this up?  Because I'm hoping someone will see that most of the systems applied to Pick-5 & 6 games can just as easily be applied to this (3,30) game.  More importantly, when viewed this way, it should reveal that there is no real mathematical difference between 3 [0..9] digits drawn from each of three machines and 3 digits [1...30] drawn from one machine.

                    By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

                    A 3/30 game could be played the same way as regular drawings using the first three digits drawn in order to create a straight three digit number. The big difference between pick-5 and lotto drawings is that each digit would have three chances of being drawn. If they made a distinction between each of three same digits like 3A, 3B, 3C, an order could be established.

                    Before they started a pick-3 game, Ohio had a game called The Buckeye 300 with pre-printed 50 cent tickets having 5 three digit numbers in alternating green and blue squares. They had a huge drum that mixed 1000 balls numbered from 000 to 999 and drew two. The secondary prizes were determined by matching the two drawn numbers in two of the green squares or in one green and one blue square. Players matching both numbers in the two blue squares appeared on a televised game show with 4 or 5 other winners 1 of them won the top prize was $300,000 (paid in 20 annual payments of $15,000). Never really thought about the odds of winning that jackpot.

                    "By the way, why do you refer to TTTs as "OLD?"

                    I'm not sure when they first started playing the numbers game but a version of it was played in the USA before the Civil War and it became popular in populated cities in the late 19th century. Don't know who had the TTT idea or when they first used it but it's at least 100 years old and probably older after being handed from earlier versions of the numbers game.

                    The numbers games were called Policy Rackets in the 1930s where players got $600 to $1, bet as little as a penny, and the bookies extended credit too. Policy banks used different methods to determine the winning number until the majority of bookies started using the Mutual Number. It was the last digit of the dollar amounts in the daily Win, Place, and Show pools at the local race tracks.

                    Sort of ironic an illegal game paid $600 to $1 with a minimum bet of a penny and now most legal games only pay $500 to $1.

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                      Posted: September 4, 2010, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

                      (your links are still messed up - same problem, extra wording within the link). 

                      Here is the correct link:  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517/1763243

                      Here is where your link points to: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/thread/207517/1763243         

                      Not at all familiar with FireFox, so I can't offer a cure.

                       

                      From reading the latest responses, it appears twedk is using "intuition and hunches" to pick out the actual numbers to be played.

                      I'm sure Jimmy will concur that each three digit number was drawn at least once and many were drawn more than 12 times in the 33.5 year history of the PA nightly Daily Number. If a player had excellent timing of when those numbers were drawn by way of "intuition and hunches", they made lots of money. It could be as simple as using it to determine if the all three digit positions will be high or low or even or odd. Play the 125 straight combinations using 50% of the digits and win $375 if your intuition and/or hunches are correct.


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                        Posted: September 5, 2010, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm sure Jimmy will concur that each three digit number was drawn at least once and many were drawn more than 12 times in the 33.5 year history of the PA nightly Daily Number. If a player had excellent timing of when those numbers were drawn by way of "intuition and hunches", they made lots of money. It could be as simple as using it to determine if the all three digit positions will be high or low or even or odd. Play the 125 straight combinations using 50% of the digits and win $375 if your intuition and/or hunches are correct.

                        "If a player had excellent timing..."

                        Yeah, only IF!  Smiley

                        Here's a system that doesn't require intuition, but perhaps those who rely on the "human element" can enhance it.

                        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220106


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                          Posted: September 7, 2010, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

                          THAT is the question we are waiting for you to answer with a workout(s)!   Smile

                          TTT Backtest !

                          This is a preliminary report on a TRIAL RUN of a Backtest of twedk's TTT system.


                          It is based on his description here:

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/207517

                          Twedk has more recently suggested the TTT from the LAST DAY of the month be used for all the days of the subsequent month.  That is what this Backtest is doing.

                          The results below are just a few of the hits from the PA Daily Number (Evening).  I chose them because they represent the variations that occur as a result of more or less unique digits [0...9] ending up in the TTT Matrix.  I am using the 3 Rows, 3 Columns, 2 Diagonals, 4 Outside Corners, and 4 Inside Corners, for a total of 16 betting possibilities.  I removed repeats and called a "Hit" when the Daily Number drawn was a Straight Match of one of these 16.  BOX ticket considerations will be given attention if the system proves profitable with Straight Bets.

                          I'm Posting them here now to get feedback as part of the "DeBugging" process.

                          If you can find ANYTHING below that indicates a possible BUG in my program, or you feel my choice of rules above is not correct, PLEASE Post a Reply here so we can perform a VALID Backtest of this system

                          --Thanks
                          --Jimmy4164

                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1977/07/02 Winning Draw == 9-0-7
                          1977/06/30 ( TTT )   (The Date the TTT is based on.)
                          9-8-3   |
                          0-0-4   |  The TTT 
                          9-8-7   |
                          0-0-4  0-0-8  0-9-8  3-0-9  3-4-7  4-0-8  4-7-8  8-0-8 
                          8-3-4  8-9-0  9-0-7  9-0-9  9-8-3  9-8-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1977/07/08 Winning Draw == 8-0-8
                          1977/06/30 ( TTT )
                          9-8-3 
                          0-0-4 
                          9-8-7 
                          0-0-4  0-0-8  0-9-8  3-0-9  3-4-7  4-0-8  4-7-8  8-0-8 
                          8-3-4  8-9-0  9-0-7  9-0-9  9-8-3  9-8-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1977/09/01 Winning Draw == 2-1-7
                          1977/08/31 ( TTT )
                          1-7-6 
                          2-9-7 
                          3-6-3 
                          1-2-3  1-7-6  1-9-3  2-1-7  2-9-6  2-9-7  3-6-3  6-3-2 
                          6-7-3  6-9-3  7-3-6  7-6-7  7-9-6  7-9-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1977/10/07 Winning Draw == 5-0-7
                          1977/09/30 ( TTT )
                          2-4-3 
                          3-6-4 
                          5-0-7 
                          0-5-3  2-3-5  2-4-3  2-6-7  3-2-4  3-4-7  3-6-0  3-6-4 
                          3-6-5  4-3-4  4-6-0  4-6-4  4-7-0  5-0-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1977/11/01 Winning Draw == 8-4-3
                          1977/10/31 ( TTT )
                          1-2-8 
                          2-4-9 
                          3-6-7 
                          1-2-3  1-2-8  1-4-7  2-1-2  2-4-2  2-4-6  2-4-9  2-8-9 
                          3-6-7  6-3-2  8-4-3  8-9-7  9-4-2  9-4-6  9-7-6 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1978/01/12 Winning Draw == 0-9-6
                          1977/12/31 ( TTT )
                          9-7-1 
                          0-9-2 
                          9-6-3 
                          0-9-2  0-9-6  0-9-7  1-2-3  1-9-9  2-3-6  2-9-6  2-9-7 
                          6-9-0  7-1-2  7-9-6  9-0-9  9-6-3  9-7-1  9-9-3 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1978/01/16 Winning Draw == 9-0-9
                          1977/12/31 ( TTT )
                          9-7-1 
                          0-9-2 
                          9-6-3 
                          0-9-2  0-9-6  0-9-7  1-2-3  1-9-9  2-3-6  2-9-6  2-9-7 
                          6-9-0  7-1-2  7-9-6  9-0-9  9-6-3  9-7-1  9-9-3 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1981/07/11 Winning Draw == 0-8-3
                          1981/06/30 ( TTT )
                          1-6-0 
                          2-8-1 
                          3-4-1 
                          0-1-1  0-8-3  1-1-4  1-2-3  1-6-0  1-8-1  1-8-4  1-8-6 
                          2-1-6  2-8-1  2-8-4  2-8-6  3-4-1  4-3-2  6-0-1  6-8-4 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1990/04/09 Winning Draw == 9-8-9
                          1990/03/31 ( TTT )
                          8-6-8 
                          9-8-9 
                          7-4-7 
                          4-7-9  6-8-4  6-8-9  7-4-7  8-6-8  8-8-7  8-9-7  9-7-4 
                          9-8-4  9-8-6  9-8-6  9-8-9 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1991/12/09 Winning Draw == 3-6-5
                          1991/11/30 ( TTT )
                          6-7-7 
                          7-9-8 
                          3-6-5 
                          3-6-5  6-3-7  6-7-3  6-7-7  6-9-5  7-6-7  7-7-8  7-8-5 
                          7-9-3  7-9-6  7-9-7  7-9-8  8-5-6  8-9-6  8-9-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------
                          1992/01/23 Winning Draw == 4-5-9
                          1991/12/31 ( TTT )
                          6-3-4 
                          7-5-5 
                          3-8-9 
                          3-4-5  3-5-8  3-8-9  4-5-3  4-5-9  5-5-3  5-5-8  5-9-8 
                          6-3-4  6-5-9  6-7-3  7-5-3  7-5-5  7-5-8  7-6-3  8-3-7 
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                            Posted: September 7, 2010, 9:07 pm - IP Logged

                            I hope that twedk and maybe Knightsquad come here and verify that this is the correct twedk version of TTT.  Far as I am concerned, your version works for me!


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                              Posted: September 9, 2010, 1:45 am - IP Logged

                              I hope that twedk and maybe Knightsquad come here and verify that this is the correct twedk version of TTT.  Far as I am concerned, your version works for me!

                              Truecritic,

                              I suspect they are waiting for me to publish the full test, including a large Box.net file of the details, so they can claim it is invalid for some reason that they could easily assert here right now.

                              Are you prepared to guess how many $500 hits that TTT produces to offset the tickets purchased over the 33 ½ years?

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
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