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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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United States
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June 1, 2009
5345 Posts
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Posted: September 18, 2010, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

joker17,

Thanks for asking.

Absolutely NOT!

--Jimmy4164

That's a shame. Can't the same skills involving the tracking of trends in the Market be used with p-3, and why not?


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
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    Posted: September 19, 2010, 3:00 am - IP Logged

    That's a shame. Can't the same skills involving the tracking of trends in the Market be used with p-3, and why not?

    No.  There are no trends in p-3.

    The next time you watch three [0...9] lottery ball machines on TV, ask yourself,

    "How do these machines know what the trend is and whether to continue it if they do?"

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      New Member

      United States
      Member #81339
      October 16, 2009
      20 Posts
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      Posted: September 21, 2010, 11:46 am - IP Logged

      jimmy, as a fellow financial markets trader I understand the motives behind your crusade against the systems posted here.  Too many wolves in sheep's clothes on trading forums who take advantage of human gullibility to sell their systems.  Just wanted to say good job.  However, looking for patterns is an innate characteristic of the human brain, so you won't really be able to stop people from believing that they see something.  Hell, even I got intangled in the pursuit of a magic system at one point where I spent literally hours analyzing and tweaking.  Besides, I haven't seen anyone trying to sell anything here but maybe it's because I'm not here much.

      What do you trade (if you still do) if you don't me asking?

        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
        United States
        Member #4924
        June 3, 2004
        5976 Posts
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        Posted: September 21, 2010, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

        No.  There are no trends in p-3.

        The next time you watch three [0...9] lottery ball machines on TV, ask yourself,

        "How do these machines know what the trend is and whether to continue it if they do?"

        "No.  There are no trends in p-3."

        What would this be, the values in red. The True/False is tracking Mirrors within 3 draws, False is no mirror witin 3 draws; True is mirror within 3 draws. The mirrors are 0-5,1-6,2-7,3-8,4-9. To me, that's a trend.

          Avatar
          New Member

          United States
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          October 16, 2009
          20 Posts
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          Posted: September 21, 2010, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

          Speaking of magic btw, I remember my sister once bought a scratch-off while buying coffee on her way to work.  There was a religious middle-aged Jewish man standing by and he said to her "here take this lucky quarter and scratch with it".  And what do you know, she won lol.  I don't remeber exactly how much, it wasn't the top prize but it wasn't a 1 dollar either.  She never bought lottery before that btw.  Probability of that situation?  Not much. Still, most likely, fooled by randomness, but it makes ya think.


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
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            Posted: September 21, 2010, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

            jimmy, as a fellow financial markets trader I understand the motives behind your crusade against the systems posted here.  Too many wolves in sheep's clothes on trading forums who take advantage of human gullibility to sell their systems.  Just wanted to say good job.  However, looking for patterns is an innate characteristic of the human brain, so you won't really be able to stop people from believing that they see something.  Hell, even I got intangled in the pursuit of a magic system at one point where I spent literally hours analyzing and tweaking.  Besides, I haven't seen anyone trying to sell anything here but maybe it's because I'm not here much.

            What do you trade (if you still do) if you don't me asking?

            luizgota,

            Thanks for your support!  You've helped me make a decision.

            This post answers your question about me and the markets.

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/215821/1757729

            What do you trade?

            You're so right in your take on the contribution of psychology to beliefs here in "Patterns" and the "Systems" to detect them.  Even if there are in fact anomolies created by unscroupulous IT people or Ball Machine Techs, the methods being employed to find them have about as much chance of succeeding as someone wearing boxing gloves has of winning a prize for a performance of a Tchaikovsky Piano Concerto! Smiley

            My decision:  Finish up my analysis of the MadDog Powerball Challenge in the Jackpots Forum where there has been Positive interest, and TRY to ignore future attacks elsewhere.  I've been neglecting my investigations with Amibroker.

            --Jimmy4164

              truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
              Michigan
              United States
              Member #22395
              September 24, 2005
              1583 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 21, 2010, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

              Speaking of magic btw, I remember my sister once bought a scratch-off while buying coffee on her way to work.  There was a religious middle-aged Jewish man standing by and he said to her "here take this lucky quarter and scratch with it".  And what do you know, she won lol.  I don't remeber exactly how much, it wasn't the top prize but it wasn't a 1 dollar either.  She never bought lottery before that btw.  Probability of that situation?  Not much. Still, most likely, fooled by randomness, but it makes ya think.

              Turn sound up - for some reason the sound is very low on this video.

              It is from the beginning of a movie called Mr. Nobody.


                United States
                Member #93947
                July 10, 2010
                2180 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 21, 2010, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

                truecritic,

                That's Wild! Wink

                (An analog -- Reconstructing the Past)

                Check out the subtle connections between this study and the pidgeon!

                (For skeptics:  This is not meant to be a direct analogy.  Just related and more to think about.)

                http://journal.sjdm.org/10/10319/jdm10319.pdf

                --Jimmy4164

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                  United States
                  Member #59354
                  March 13, 2008
                  4089 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 22, 2010, 12:48 am - IP Logged

                  Hey jimmy4164, has any of your expertise analyzing the stock market helped you with more wins in a p-3 environment?

                  I'm very interested to know this.

                  Thanx.....

                   

                  Joker17

                   

                  What we should be asking him is to show how good he is /was at trading.  I would think that

                  any one worth mention at the markets would have far better things to do then to waste his time

                  posting here at LP.  Wow, what a way to enjoy the many years of success he has behind his

                  belt.  You know when he first showed up here I kept getting PM's from him wanting me to help

                  him write software for the markets.  My first impression of him was that he had not done to well

                  and wanted someone to help him gain some sort of advantage in the markets.   

                  I would very much like him to to post here at LP just how successful his trading has been.  I will

                  be posting my winning tickets and would like to challenge him to show some sort of proof that

                  he is what he says.  How about it jimmy show us what you got,  I don't want to hear about it, I

                  want the same proof that you require from everyone else.  You see I don't believe you have ever

                  done anything but maybe a little online day trading and I would venture to say you did not do well. 

                  Show some proof of how your basic math skills have made you rich in the markets.   

                   

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                    Michigan
                    United States
                    Member #22395
                    September 24, 2005
                    1583 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 22, 2010, 10:55 pm - IP Logged

                    truecritic,

                    That's Wild! Wink

                    (An analog -- Reconstructing the Past)

                    Check out the subtle connections between this study and the pidgeon!

                    (For skeptics:  This is not meant to be a direct analogy.  Just related and more to think about.)

                    http://journal.sjdm.org/10/10319/jdm10319.pdf

                    --Jimmy4164

                    Interesting.  Not an easy read.  The pigeon could never grasp it. Big Grin

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                      United States
                      Member #59354
                      March 13, 2008
                      4089 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 23, 2010, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

                      Turn sound up - for some reason the sound is very low on this video.

                      It is from the beginning of a movie called Mr. Nobody.

                      truecrtic

                      I now see very clearly where you and jimmy are comming from,  Your many looses from

                      past play have taught you that nothing can be done so now your only hope of winning

                      anything is in a random event tied to a little luck.  Thank you very much for this post as it

                      really explains much.  I guess this is why I believe that I can win because of my past play. 

                      I was a little concerned that the event shown was on a 20 second timer which trained the

                      bird very well but considering the gray matter involved it only makes since.  I just wonder if

                      the timer had been set to a go off at different times what would have happened.  I think that

                      the birds reaction was very smart.  Consider this, Most birds must be aware of the air

                      currents produced by there wings.  When they take off little sticks and debris are moved out

                      of there place.  The bird was thinking that he could effect the door opening by the flaping of

                      his wings.  This was reinforced ever few seconds and became a learned behavior, Many people

                      are tied to just this sort of thing. It can both be positive and negitive.

                      I would like you to look outside the box for a moment and don't think of the lottery as random. 

                      I know this is very hard to get your mind around but just try.  The order of the balls that come

                      out will most likely follow the rules for the game.  Each ball drawn should have the same chances

                      of being drawn but this is a myth that many believe because that's what they have been told over

                      and over kind of like the pigeon in the video.  

                      The way the balls are arranged before and the method and order of introducing the balls into

                      the hopper changes the chances for each ball.  This however has little effect and is not what

                      I am talking about.   The balls drawn will follow some very predictable rules.  I know that you

                      have read some of my post concerning selecting digits.  I do not try to predict which numbers

                      will be drawn but try to build sets based on something as simple as population of digits.  In 

                      my game of 39 balls 13 have the digit one, thirteen have the digit two, and thirteen have the

                      digit three.  In a 5 39 game you can expect to select a correct ball at random one out of every

                      7.8 attemps.  You could select 5 balls in a row and match all 5 but you could also not match any. 

                      My logic is very simple if a group of thirteen balls make up 33% of the total  then 33% of the balls

                      drawn will come from this group.  The digit 0 is in the 39 numbers only 3 times or .077%  and I expect

                      it to be drawn in .077% of the balls drawn.  I cannot predict when each digit will be drawn but I can

                      make some very good choices based on the digits percent of the population.  I find that these stats

                      follow the the expected values very well.  Using many types of data that is based on the matrix of the

                      game and not on what was drawn last is the method I use.  Everything that I use can be calculated

                      and most all lotteries will follow these simple rules.  If they don't then I would question the drawing

                      as being fair.  Most RNG's follow these rules better than a ball drop but each follows very close.

                      Before the very first drawing I knew what and how many of each I would play in most drawings. 

                      I do track much data that is not number related but is secondary data gotten from filters that show

                      a bias that is somewhat predictable and is the reason for my success.  I don't claim to be able to

                      get the winning numbers any time I want, I follow the data and play when it shows to positive.

                      Many days it tells me not to play so I don't.   

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                        Michigan
                        United States
                        Member #22395
                        September 24, 2005
                        1583 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 24, 2010, 1:15 am - IP Logged

                        truecrtic

                        I now see very clearly where you and jimmy are comming from,  Your many looses from

                        past play have taught you that nothing can be done so now your only hope of winning

                        anything is in a random event tied to a little luck.  Thank you very much for this post as it

                        really explains much.  I guess this is why I believe that I can win because of my past play. 

                        I was a little concerned that the event shown was on a 20 second timer which trained the

                        bird very well but considering the gray matter involved it only makes since.  I just wonder if

                        the timer had been set to a go off at different times what would have happened.  I think that

                        the birds reaction was very smart.  Consider this, Most birds must be aware of the air

                        currents produced by there wings.  When they take off little sticks and debris are moved out

                        of there place.  The bird was thinking that he could effect the door opening by the flaping of

                        his wings.  This was reinforced ever few seconds and became a learned behavior, Many people

                        are tied to just this sort of thing. It can both be positive and negitive.

                        I would like you to look outside the box for a moment and don't think of the lottery as random. 

                        I know this is very hard to get your mind around but just try.  The order of the balls that come

                        out will most likely follow the rules for the game.  Each ball drawn should have the same chances

                        of being drawn but this is a myth that many believe because that's what they have been told over

                        and over kind of like the pigeon in the video.  

                        The way the balls are arranged before and the method and order of introducing the balls into

                        the hopper changes the chances for each ball.  This however has little effect and is not what

                        I am talking about.   The balls drawn will follow some very predictable rules.  I know that you

                        have read some of my post concerning selecting digits.  I do not try to predict which numbers

                        will be drawn but try to build sets based on something as simple as population of digits.  In 

                        my game of 39 balls 13 have the digit one, thirteen have the digit two, and thirteen have the

                        digit three.  In a 5 39 game you can expect to select a correct ball at random one out of every

                        7.8 attemps.  You could select 5 balls in a row and match all 5 but you could also not match any. 

                        My logic is very simple if a group of thirteen balls make up 33% of the total  then 33% of the balls

                        drawn will come from this group.  The digit 0 is in the 39 numbers only 3 times or .077%  and I expect

                        it to be drawn in .077% of the balls drawn.  I cannot predict when each digit will be drawn but I can

                        make some very good choices based on the digits percent of the population.  I find that these stats

                        follow the the expected values very well.  Using many types of data that is based on the matrix of the

                        game and not on what was drawn last is the method I use.  Everything that I use can be calculated

                        and most all lotteries will follow these simple rules.  If they don't then I would question the drawing

                        as being fair.  Most RNG's follow these rules better than a ball drop but each follows very close.

                        Before the very first drawing I knew what and how many of each I would play in most drawings. 

                        I do track much data that is not number related but is secondary data gotten from filters that show

                        a bias that is somewhat predictable and is the reason for my success.  I don't claim to be able to

                        get the winning numbers any time I want, I follow the data and play when it shows to positive.

                        Many days it tells me not to play so I don't.   

                        RL

                        Hi RL,

                        I posted the Pigeon Superstition because luizgota mentioned false beliefs about the "magic quarter" his sister used to scratch a winning ticket.

                        "Your many loses from past play have taught you that nothing can be done so now your only hope of winning anything is in a random event tied to a little luck."

                        Not at all.  I don't really want to repeat my entire comedy of errors here but for my beliefs - which is that I think there can be self-picks that outdo quick picks - please read what I posted here.

                        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220397/1779762

                        We all have Pigeon Superstition for various things in our life though.

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
                          Member #59354
                          March 13, 2008
                          4089 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 24, 2010, 9:20 am - IP Logged

                          Hi RL,

                          I posted the Pigeon Superstition because luizgota mentioned false beliefs about the "magic quarter" his sister used to scratch a winning ticket.

                          "Your many loses from past play have taught you that nothing can be done so now your only hope of winning anything is in a random event tied to a little luck."

                          Not at all.  I don't really want to repeat my entire comedy of errors here but for my beliefs - which is that I think there can be self-picks that outdo quick picks - please read what I posted here.

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220397/1779762

                          We all have Pigeon Superstition for various things in our life though.

                          truecritic

                          Just trying to repay jimmy by taking a crap on his yard.  The guy reads too many comic

                          books and believes himself to be a super hero garding the universe from thugs like me.

                          You know that he has stoped my evil plans to sell my software which I offered to Todd

                          for free to add to LP as a tool for whoever.   I made this offer to Todd long before Jimmy

                          ever came to LP and the offer still stands.  Some people need to run someone else down

                          before they can feel good about themselves.   He has littered my post with so much trash

                          that we are switching to a private group so we can discuss new ideas and share what we

                          are doing uninterupted. 

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                            Michigan
                            United States
                            Member #22395
                            September 24, 2005
                            1583 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 25, 2010, 12:26 am - IP Logged

                            truecritic

                            Just trying to repay jimmy by taking a crap on his yard.  The guy reads too many comic

                            books and believes himself to be a super hero garding the universe from thugs like me.

                            You know that he has stoped my evil plans to sell my software which I offered to Todd

                            for free to add to LP as a tool for whoever.   I made this offer to Todd long before Jimmy

                            ever came to LP and the offer still stands.  Some people need to run someone else down

                            before they can feel good about themselves.   He has littered my post with so much trash

                            that we are switching to a private group so we can discuss new ideas and share what we

                            are doing uninterupted. 

                            RL

                            I had asked about your method in your thread...

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/214856/1784121

                            Just thinking it might solve skepticism if people could run the program themselves.


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 27, 2010, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

                              CARBOB,

                              In this post,

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1783866

                              ME:  "No.  There are no trends in p-3."

                              YOU:  What would this be, the values in red. The True/False is tracking Mirrors within 3 draws, False is no mirror witin 3 draws; True is mirror within 3 draws. The mirrors are 0-5,1-6,2-7,3-8,4-9. To me, that's a trend.

                              Sorry Bob, but to me, this is noise.

                              Do you think your observations over these few days would pass this test?

                              http://ms.about.com/od/glossary/g/significance.htm

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
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