Truecritic,
What I was hoping was that you would try a prediction of the results using Probability Theory!
I hope all my time and energy spent writing programs and presenting people with the actual results of system play will result in at least a few seeing the light. Most of this would not be necessary if more people understood and accepted what those 17th Century French mathematicians figured out so long ago!
https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219401/1763411
Twedk's TTT system starts with 16 potential numbers to bet on and reduces that number through [as yet] undefined screening techniques. I suspect one of them is the one I am using in my backtest, removing repeats. † The issue of BOXed bets is a NON-Issue. PA pays $500 on a $1 Straight ticket, $80 on a $1 Box of [ I-J-K ] where I, J, and K are unique, and $160 on a $1 Box of [ I-I-J ], where I <> J. I hope it will not be necessary to convince anyone that a test of the 16 (minus repeats) numbers played Straight will be sufficient to test the viability of this TTT method. On the issue of the undefined screening methods, I am assuming the following:
The fact that Twedk is suggesting the 16 numbers derived from the winning number of the last day of the previous month implies that she believes these 16, as a group, are more likely to hit than the other 984 possibilities. Now, the assumption I am going to make is that any of these discarded numbers are being discarded because it is believed they are NO BETTER than chance bets. Since I am leaving them in the set to be bet on, IF a player has an edge in his/her discard process, THEN my percentage of hits will be reduced by their inclusion, but on average, to no less than chance. HOWEVER, I hope everyone can see that regardless of this disclaimer, IF this TTT calculation is a profitable method of betting, OR in the least, REDUCES LOSSES OVER QPs, this Backtest will reveal it.
I'm embarrased! Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, if they could have looked this far into the future back in 1654, would have LTAO!
--Jimmy4164
† Someone could surely make a case that these repeats should be left in and bet on; one could conjecture that they appeared multiple times because they are more likely to win!
The following is a result of the TTT described earlier in this thread applied to the PA Daily Number (Evening) from 1977/03/01 through 2010/09/08. The results file is available at Box.net using the following URL:
http://www.box.net/shared/p8k0esm9or
If anyone can find a Hit in this period of time that my program missed, PLEASE POST IT!
Here are 3 hits at the beginning, 3 from the middle, and the last 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------
1977/07/02 Winning Draw == 9-0-7 ( Hits: 1 )
1977/06/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 1120 )
9-8-3
0-0-4
9-8-7
0-0-4 0-0-8 0-9-8 3-0-9 3-4-7 4-0-8 4-7-8 8-0-8
8-3-4 8-9-0 9-0-7 9-0-9 9-8-3 9-8-7
--------------------------------------------------------------
1977/07/08 Winning Draw == 8-0-8 ( Hits: 2 )
1977/06/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 1190 )
9-8-3
0-0-4
9-8-7
0-0-4 0-0-8 0-9-8 3-0-9 3-4-7 4-0-8 4-7-8 8-0-8
8-3-4 8-9-0 9-0-7 9-0-9 9-8-3 9-8-7
--------------------------------------------------------------
1977/09/01 Winning Draw == 2-1-7 ( Hits: 3 )
1977/08/31 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 1875 )
1-7-6
2-9-7
3-6-3
1-2-3 1-7-6 1-9-3 2-1-7 2-9-6 2-9-7 3-6-3 6-3-2
6-7-3 6-9-3 7-3-6 7-6-7 7-9-6 7-9-7
===============G A P==================
--------------------------------------------------------------
1993/12/02 Winning Draw == 8-3-6 ( Hits: 79 )
1993/11/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 80096 )
8-3-6
9-5-7
7-8-3
3-5-8 3-6-7 6-5-7 6-7-3 7-3-8 7-5-3 7-5-8 7-8-3
8-3-6 8-5-3 8-7-9 8-9-7 9-5-3 9-5-7 9-5-8 9-8-3
--------------------------------------------------------------
1993/12/03 Winning Draw == 7-8-3 ( Hits: 80 )
1993/11/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 80112 )
8-3-6
9-5-7
7-8-3
3-5-8 3-6-7 6-5-7 6-7-3 7-3-8 7-5-3 7-5-8 7-8-3
8-3-6 8-5-3 8-7-9 8-9-7 9-5-3 9-5-7 9-5-8 9-8-3
--------------------------------------------------------------
1993/12/12 Winning Draw == 7-5-8 ( Hits: 81 )
1993/11/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 80256 )
8-3-6
9-5-7
7-8-3
3-5-8 3-6-7 6-5-7 6-7-3 7-3-8 7-5-3 7-5-8 7-8-3
8-3-6 8-5-3 8-7-9 8-9-7 9-5-3 9-5-7 9-5-8 9-8-3
===============G A P==================
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/04/04 Winning Draw == 8-6-5 ( Hits: 160 )
2010/03/31 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 168980 )
2-4-8
3-6-9
5-0-7
0-5-3 2-3-5 2-4-8 2-6-7 3-2-4 3-6-0 3-6-4 3-6-9
4-6-0 4-8-9 5-0-7 8-6-5 8-9-7 9-6-0 9-6-4 9-7-0
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/05/18 Winning Draw == 6-1-6 ( Hits: 161 )
2010/04/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 169666 )
5-7-4
6-9-5
1-6-9
1-6-9 4-5-9 4-9-1 5-6-1 5-7-4 5-9-6 5-9-7 5-9-9
6-1-6 6-5-7 6-9-5 6-9-6 6-9-7 7-4-5 7-9-6
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/05/19 Winning Draw == 6-9-5 ( Hits: 162 )
2010/04/30 ( TTT ) (Straight Bets: 169681 )
5-7-4
6-9-5
1-6-9
1-6-9 4-5-9 4-9-1 5-6-1 5-7-4 5-9-6 5-9-7 5-9-9
6-1-6 6-5-7 6-9-5 6-9-6 6-9-7 7-4-5 7-9-6
Remember, each Straight Bet costs $1 and each Hit pays $500.
Does THIS help shed light for you on why System Players win in
proportion to their ticket purchases when compared to QP players?