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Statistics around the balance of even/odd and small/big numbers

Topic closed. 142 replies. Last post 6 years ago by RL-RANDOMLOGIC.

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United States
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July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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Posted: January 17, 2011, 2:58 pm - IP Logged

P.S.

You also said, "Luck does not exist but Chance however does."

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POxhFFGfR7o

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

    United States
    Member #59354
    March 13, 2008
    3985 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 18, 2011, 1:31 am - IP Logged

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

    You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

    What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters?  And what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

    --Jimmy4164

    jimmy

    I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse

    them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the 

    expected.  Remember the method you use to calculate what will happen over time as in your

    30 years of pick-3 analysis, same thing but with a much smaller pool of possible outcomes.  I can

    tell you with a very small margin of error how many drawings will have 3 odd numbers 30 years in

    the future if the game should last that long.  I can't predict what will happen in the next draw but

    I can predict what will happen most.  This is buillt into the game and is really not predicting anything.

    I could and often have used the word predict and that was wrong.  I should have said I made the

    correct choice given the data I had at my disposal.  Being 100% correct is required to win a 5 of 5

    with my method of play but 20% correct overall can still win something.  I can count on my fingers

    the times I played and did now win a lower prize in 2010.  I give myself a little better then 0% 

    chance of hitting a 5 of 5 on any given day but I expect to win or break even over any given week

    or month.  The only way to win is to play and the only way to improve chances for a JP is to buy more

    tickets.  The only way to play often without incurring a loss is to hit many lower prizes or a Jackpot.

    The smartest way to play is to play that which will hit most often.  It does not take any real brain

    power to know that sets with 3 odd numbers will be drawn more often then sets with 0 odd numbers

    so I will play 3 odd before I would play 0 odd.  Same thing using digits 1-2-3, I know on average how

    many drawings will have all 3 and how many will have 2 or 1.  I will play all 3 almost every day I play

    because even if they don't all hit,  2 of 3 can still produce a lower prize.  Playing the lottery for free is

    a very good feeling and makes it much more fun which is why I continue to play.  I very often miss the

    100% by one setting, If I can do this on a regular bases then why would I believe I will not make that

    final step. Just the way I see it.

     

    RL


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 18, 2011, 3:03 am - IP Logged

      jimmy

      I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse

      them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the 

      expected.  Remember the method you use to calculate what will happen over time as in your

      30 years of pick-3 analysis, same thing but with a much smaller pool of possible outcomes.  I can

      tell you with a very small margin of error how many drawings will have 3 odd numbers 30 years in

      the future if the game should last that long.  I can't predict what will happen in the next draw but

      I can predict what will happen most.  This is buillt into the game and is really not predicting anything.

      I could and often have used the word predict and that was wrong.  I should have said I made the

      correct choice given the data I had at my disposal.  Being 100% correct is required to win a 5 of 5

      with my method of play but 20% correct overall can still win something.  I can count on my fingers

      the times I played and did now win a lower prize in 2010.  I give myself a little better then 0% 

      chance of hitting a 5 of 5 on any given day but I expect to win or break even over any given week

      or month.  The only way to win is to play and the only way to improve chances for a JP is to buy more

      tickets.  The only way to play often without incurring a loss is to hit many lower prizes or a Jackpot.

      The smartest way to play is to play that which will hit most often.  It does not take any real brain

      power to know that sets with 3 odd numbers will be drawn more often then sets with 0 odd numbers

      so I will play 3 odd before I would play 0 odd.  Same thing using digits 1-2-3, I know on average how

      many drawings will have all 3 and how many will have 2 or 1.  I will play all 3 almost every day I play

      because even if they don't all hit,  2 of 3 can still produce a lower prize.  Playing the lottery for free is

      a very good feeling and makes it much more fun which is why I continue to play.  I very often miss the

      100% by one setting, If I can do this on a regular bases then why would I believe I will not make that

      final step. Just the way I see it.

       

      RL

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

      You said, I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the expected.

      This and the rest of your posting is a paraphrase of much of what you've been writing here for months.  "...a margin of error from the expected."  Hmmm... You insist you don't look back, so just what are you saying here?"  This posting doesn't tell us anything of value, and it definitely doesn't address the questions in my last post. 

      By the way, I know EXACTLY what you mean when you say you are not using past draw results to choose your sets, and consequently are not guilty of the Gambler's fallacy.  My reason for continually questioning you on this is because of statements like those above, and your reluctance to answer questions like the ones in my last post to you, repeated here:

      -------------------------------------------

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

      You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

      (1)What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters?  And (2)what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

      --Jimmy4164

      ----------------------------

      P.S.  You claim you break even without winning Jackpots.  It surely must not be with the Powerball, because to perform this feat there,  you would have to win all the lesser prizes (up to and including the 4WB + PB) at a RATE 7.4 Times Expected, because the Expected Value of a $1 Powerball ticket is 13.5¢, UNLESS you hit a 5 Bagger or a Jackpot. 

      If you could do this, I don't think you would be here trying to convince me that you can!

      I really would like to hear your response to the 2 questions above, and I suspect I'm not the only one who would.


        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3985 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 18, 2011, 9:25 am - IP Logged

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

        You said, I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the expected.

        This and the rest of your posting is a paraphrase of much of what you've been writing here for months.  "...a margin of error from the expected."  Hmmm... You insist you don't look back, so just what are you saying here?"  This posting doesn't tell us anything of value, and it definitely doesn't address the questions in my last post. 

        By the way, I know EXACTLY what you mean when you say you are not using past draw results to choose your sets, and consequently are not guilty of the Gambler's fallacy.  My reason for continually questioning you on this is because of statements like those above, and your reluctance to answer questions like the ones in my last post to you, repeated here:

        -------------------------------------------

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

        You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

        (1)What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters?  And (2)what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

        --Jimmy4164

        ----------------------------

        P.S.  You claim you break even without winning Jackpots.  It surely must not be with the Powerball, because to perform this feat there,  you would have to win all the lesser prizes (up to and including the 4WB + PB) at a RATE 7.4 Times Expected, because the Expected Value of a $1 Powerball ticket is 13.5¢, UNLESS you hit a 5 Bagger or a Jackpot. 

        If you could do this, I don't think you would be here trying to convince me that you can!

        I really would like to hear your response to the 2 questions above, and I suspect I'm not the only one who would.


        Jimmy

         

        OK, I see what you are after.   I started to post a reply showing in detail how I calculate my

        selections and two hours later I am not even close to having it done so I am going to paste

        it to notepad to finish it at  a later time.  Knowing how you scrutinise what I write It will take

        much proofing before it can be posted and will still be full of mistakes.  It will not be for the

        lighthearted and much of it cannot be done without software.    I will have very litttle time 

        to work on this for the next week or so.

         

        Power Ball question.

        I only play my 5-39 game except for when PB or MB jump up very high and then when I do 

        play I will likely buy QP's.  It is very hard to hit the lower prizes for these games because of

        the spread.  The odds are just to great for me to consider.  Each matrix has it own little quirks

        and requires retraining before playing.  I do play My 6-44 game from time to time as I can play

        2 lines for a dollar.  The more I stick to one game the better I do.  I try to stick to 8 to 12 lines

        for my 5-39 which I play over 95% of the time.     

         

        RL

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19831 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 18, 2011, 11:15 am - IP Logged

           combination size             5
           basic pool size              59
           (B) Bonus pool size          39
           smallest match no (B) number 3
           largest match with bonus     5
           smallest match with bonus    0
           tickets or chances per draw  195249054
           possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054
           MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS     PAYOUTS
            5/5+B  1 : 195249054        1                        1.00          JP
            5/5+0  1 : 5138133          38                      38.00         $7600000
            4/5+B  1 : 723145           270                    270.00         $2700000
            4/5+0  1 : 19030            10260                10260.00         $1026000
            3/5+B  1 : 13644            14310                14310.00         $1431000
            3/5+0  1 : 359              543780              543780.01         $3806460
            2/5+B  1 : 787              248040              248040.00         $1736280
            1/5+B  1 : 123              1581255            1581255.02         $6325020
            0/5+B  1 : 62               3162510            3162510.03         $9487530
           ______________________________________________________________________________
           overall odds are 1 : 35.1         5560464.0 total expected winners
           5560464 winning combos = 2.84 % of possible combos

          PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets.  Unless a  regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Avatar
            New Member
            new haven ct
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            Posted: January 18, 2011, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

            I seem to think that certain numbers follow each other most times


              United States
              Member #93947
              July 10, 2010
              2180 Posts
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              Posted: January 18, 2011, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

               combination size             5
               basic pool size              59
               (B) Bonus pool size          39
               smallest match no (B) number 3
               largest match with bonus     5
               smallest match with bonus    0
               tickets or chances per draw  195249054
               possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054
               MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS     PAYOUTS
                5/5+B  1 : 195249054        1                        1.00          JP
                5/5+0  1 : 5138133          38                      38.00         $7600000
                4/5+B  1 : 723145           270                    270.00         $2700000
                4/5+0  1 : 19030            10260                10260.00         $1026000
                3/5+B  1 : 13644            14310                14310.00         $1431000
                3/5+0  1 : 359              543780              543780.01         $3806460
                2/5+B  1 : 787              248040              248040.00         $1736280
                1/5+B  1 : 123              1581255            1581255.02         $6325020
                0/5+B  1 : 62               3162510            3162510.03         $9487530
               ______________________________________________________________________________
               overall odds are 1 : 35.1         5560464.0 total expected winners
               5560464 winning combos = 2.84 % of possible combos

              PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets.  Unless a  regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets.

              "PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets.  Unless a  regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets."

              Thanks RJ!


                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
                Member #59354
                March 13, 2008
                3985 Posts
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                Posted: January 18, 2011, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

                I seem to think that certain numbers follow each other most times

                L55

                This is also a product of the matrix.  Study a numerical list of the entire matrix for your game

                and you will see why it is so.  When you look at the skips for almost any number you will find 

                that the best time for a number to hit is in the next drawing and the second best is with one

                day between.   This does not mean that it will happen but explains rather why it does. 

                 

                RL

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                  United States
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                  Posted: January 19, 2011, 1:52 am - IP Logged

                  Anyone

                   

                  Below are the results for the last 5 MO. SM-Cash 5 drawings.   There is nothing special about

                  any of these drawings.  What I would like you to look at is the 3 of 5 and the 4 of 5 wins for each

                  game with most attention on the 4 of 5's.  First notice that ticket sales do  not seem to have a

                  effect on this.  My question is what is the most logical reason for the 4 of 5's hits within these

                  draws?  Take your time because the most obvious may not be correct.         

                   

                  Tue, Jan 18, 2011           11-13-28-30-36

                  Estimated JP = 55,000

                  Match 5 of 5  = 0             $0

                  Match 4 of 5  = 10           $250.00

                  Match 3 of 5  = 510         $10.00

                  Match 2 of 5  = 6,211      $1.00

                  Total Winners: 6,731       $13,811

                   

                  Mon, Jan 17, 2011           5-6-15-20-39     

                  Estimated JP = 50,000

                  Match 5 of 5  =  0            $0

                  Match 4 of 5  =  11          $250.00

                  Match 3 of 5  =   592       $10.00

                  Match 2 of 5  =   5,665    $1.00

                  Total Winners:   6,268    $14,335

                   

                  Sun, Jan 16, 2011         3-11-17-24-29   

                  Estimated JP = 86,000

                  Match 5 of 5  = 1           $86,000

                  Match 4 of 5  = 29         $250.00

                  Match 3 of 5  = 695       $10.00

                  Match 2 of 5  = 6,248    $1.00

                  Total Winners:  6,973   $20,448 - JP

                   

                  Sat, Jan 15, 2011          23-25-28-33-36 

                  Estimated JP = 66,000

                  Match 5 of 5  = 0           $66,000

                  Match 4 of 5  = 14         $250.00

                  Match 3 of 5  = 659       $10.00

                  Match 2 of 5  = 7,326    $1.00

                  Total Winners:  7,999    $17,416

                   

                  Fri, Jan 14, 2011           10-19-29-31-38

                  Estimated JP = 50,000

                  Match 5 of 5  = 0           $0

                  Match 4 of 5  = 26         $250.00

                  Match 3 of 5  = 622       $10.00

                  Match 2 of 5  = 6,597    $1.00

                  Total Winners: 7,245    $19,317

                  RL

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
                    United States
                    Member #69864
                    January 18, 2009
                    993 Posts
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                    Posted: January 19, 2011, 9:50 am - IP Logged

                    Math geeks playing prime odd numbers?

                    Jimmy


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
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                      Posted: January 19, 2011, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                      Anyone

                       

                      Below are the results for the last 5 MO. SM-Cash 5 drawings.   There is nothing special about

                      any of these drawings.  What I would like you to look at is the 3 of 5 and the 4 of 5 wins for each

                      game with most attention on the 4 of 5's.  First notice that ticket sales do  not seem to have a

                      effect on this.  My question is what is the most logical reason for the 4 of 5's hits within these

                      draws?  Take your time because the most obvious may not be correct.         

                       

                      Tue, Jan 18, 2011           11-13-28-30-36

                      Estimated JP = 55,000

                      Match 5 of 5  = 0             $0

                      Match 4 of 5  = 10           $250.00

                      Match 3 of 5  = 510         $10.00

                      Match 2 of 5  = 6,211      $1.00

                      Total Winners: 6,731       $13,811

                       

                      Mon, Jan 17, 2011           5-6-15-20-39     

                      Estimated JP = 50,000

                      Match 5 of 5  =  0            $0

                      Match 4 of 5  =  11          $250.00

                      Match 3 of 5  =   592       $10.00

                      Match 2 of 5  =   5,665    $1.00

                      Total Winners:   6,268    $14,335

                       

                      Sun, Jan 16, 2011         3-11-17-24-29   

                      Estimated JP = 86,000

                      Match 5 of 5  = 1           $86,000

                      Match 4 of 5  = 29         $250.00

                      Match 3 of 5  = 695       $10.00

                      Match 2 of 5  = 6,248    $1.00

                      Total Winners:  6,973   $20,448 - JP

                       

                      Sat, Jan 15, 2011          23-25-28-33-36 

                      Estimated JP = 66,000

                      Match 5 of 5  = 0           $66,000

                      Match 4 of 5  = 14         $250.00

                      Match 3 of 5  = 659       $10.00

                      Match 2 of 5  = 7,326    $1.00

                      Total Winners:  7,999    $17,416

                       

                      Fri, Jan 14, 2011           10-19-29-31-38

                      Estimated JP = 50,000

                      Match 5 of 5  = 0           $0

                      Match 4 of 5  = 26         $250.00

                      Match 3 of 5  = 622       $10.00

                      Match 2 of 5  = 6,597    $1.00

                      Total Winners: 7,245    $19,317

                      RL

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                      It's not really clear to me what we should notice in this small set of results.  If you are seeing some pattern related to the number of ODD or EVEN numbers, or the number of unique digits, or something to do with prime numbers, it's of no relevance, other than the fact that more people (like you) might bet on certain patterns, so that when they DO HIT, there are more winners!  No matter what you are trying to show, this would not be nearly enough data to draw any conclusions anyway.

                      It's amazing to me that you still believe that you are likely to win more money if you choose sets consisting of numbers or patterns that appear with a higher frequency than others in the total universe of possibilities.  This is  no different than someone rejecting all sets containing numbers less than 10, because they counted, and discovered that more sets are drawn containing, exclusively, the numbers between 10 and 39, than sets with only 1 through 9.  So what?  Ironically, both strategies, over the long haul, will result in the same winnings!

                      Don Catlin covers this ground quite well, using the Sum the Set example:

                      http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/lottery-nonsense-8694

                      Here is what you can expect in Missouri:

                      ( http://www.molottery.com/show_me_cash/show_me_cash.jsp )

                       

                                                         $1 Ticket

                      Match     Win         Odds       Expected Value

                      5 of 5 $50,000*  575,757.0 / 1      $ 0.085*

                      4 of 5    $250     3,386.8 / 1        0.074

                      3 of 5     $10       102.6 / 1        0.097

                      2 of 5      $1         9.6 / 1        0.104

                      *Minimum


                      As with the Powerball, it's hard to state the expected value of the Jackpot, because there is typically not a winner for every draw, and the amount increases until someone wins.  But it's easy to see what you will win on average by hitting on the 2, 3, and 4 of 5 combinations only, which is the majority experience.

                      If you start with $1000 and bet $20 per week on the Missouri ShowMe-5, at the end of a year, you are very likely to have about $246 left.

                      UNLESS, However, Your Ship Comes In! You would have purchased 1040 tickets during the year, so you had a 554 to 1 chance of winning a minimum of $50,000!

                      Actually, in regard to the smaller prizes, this Missouri (5,39) Lotto is a better deal than the Powerball!

                      --Jimmy4164

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                        United States
                        Member #59354
                        March 13, 2008
                        3985 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 19, 2011, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                        It's not really clear to me what we should notice in this small set of results.  If you are seeing some pattern related to the number of ODD or EVEN numbers, or the number of unique digits, or something to do with prime numbers, it's of no relevance, other than the fact that more people (like you) might bet on certain patterns, so that when they DO HIT, there are more winners!  No matter what you are trying to show, this would not be nearly enough data to draw any conclusions anyway.

                        It's amazing to me that you still believe that you are likely to win more money if you choose sets consisting of numbers or patterns that appear with a higher frequency than others in the total universe of possibilities.  This is  no different than someone rejecting all sets containing numbers less than 10, because they counted, and discovered that more sets are drawn containing, exclusively, the numbers between 10 and 39, than sets with only 1 through 9.  So what?  Ironically, both strategies, over the long haul, will result in the same winnings!

                        Don Catlin covers this ground quite well, using the Sum the Set example:

                        http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/lottery-nonsense-8694

                        Here is what you can expect in Missouri:

                        ( http://www.molottery.com/show_me_cash/show_me_cash.jsp )

                         

                                                           $1 Ticket

                        Match     Win         Odds       Expected Value

                        5 of 5 $50,000*  575,757.0 / 1      $ 0.085*

                        4 of 5    $250     3,386.8 / 1        0.074

                        3 of 5     $10       102.6 / 1        0.097

                        2 of 5      $1         9.6 / 1        0.104

                        *Minimum


                        As with the Powerball, it's hard to state the expected value of the Jackpot, because there is typically not a winner for every draw, and the amount increases until someone wins.  But it's easy to see what you will win on average by hitting on the 2, 3, and 4 of 5 combinations only, which is the majority experience.

                        If you start with $1000 and bet $20 per week on the Missouri ShowMe-5, at the end of a year, you are very likely to have about $246 left.

                        UNLESS, However, Your Ship Comes In! You would have purchased 1040 tickets during the year, so you had a 554 to 1 chance of winning a minimum of $50,000!

                        Actually, in regard to the smaller prizes, this Missouri (5,39) Lotto is a better deal than the Powerball!

                        --Jimmy4164

                        Jimmy

                        Odd even has nothing to do with this question,  I would like to say that high 4 of 5's are the

                        days I play but not the case here.  Think larger and the patterns that exist here are repeated

                        over and over.  It's kind of a trick question, the pattern has nothing to do with numbers drawn.

                        but tickets played.   Population distrubition of randomly selected sets.   Look at a single game

                        but not at the set drawn but of the many tickets sold.  Generate a large group of 5 number sets

                        simulating many people buying tickets.

                        Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.  Record how

                        many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a drawing and the prizes

                        paid. 

                         

                        Do this many times and you should  find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.  2 of 5

                        and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

                         

                        Part 2:

                        The results that RJ posted are overall and I agree 100%.   I came out ahead overall for 2010, 

                        Some may say it's luck and others may say I am being untruthful but I am telling it as it is.  It's

                        not rare for me to go over a month without playing and a few weeks ago I played 5 days in a row

                        and won money 4 of those days. The 5th day I lost and that ended my play.  The wife also played

                        over the same time and won 2 days then lost  $13.00 the third day and stoped playing.  Back during

                        my post I won around $400.00 in a very short time frame of about 10 days.  Durning this time I don't

                        think I ever spent over 15 dollars on any game and did not play every day. I sent copies of my tickets

                        to others and they can verifi what I say.   I win several 4 or 5's within any given year and have hit as

                        many as 3 or 4,  4 of 5's in one game play.  The $400.00 mentioned above could fund my play for up

                        to six months even if I never won another prize in that time.   

                         

                        RL


                          United States
                          Member #93947
                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 20, 2011, 12:43 am - IP Logged

                          Jimmy

                          Odd even has nothing to do with this question,  I would like to say that high 4 of 5's are the

                          days I play but not the case here.  Think larger and the patterns that exist here are repeated

                          over and over.  It's kind of a trick question, the pattern has nothing to do with numbers drawn.

                          but tickets played.   Population distrubition of randomly selected sets.   Look at a single game

                          but not at the set drawn but of the many tickets sold.  Generate a large group of 5 number sets

                          simulating many people buying tickets.

                          Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.  Record how

                          many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a drawing and the prizes

                          paid. 

                           

                          Do this many times and you should  find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.  2 of 5

                          and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

                           

                          Part 2:

                          The results that RJ posted are overall and I agree 100%.   I came out ahead overall for 2010, 

                          Some may say it's luck and others may say I am being untruthful but I am telling it as it is.  It's

                          not rare for me to go over a month without playing and a few weeks ago I played 5 days in a row

                          and won money 4 of those days. The 5th day I lost and that ended my play.  The wife also played

                          over the same time and won 2 days then lost  $13.00 the third day and stoped playing.  Back during

                          my post I won around $400.00 in a very short time frame of about 10 days.  Durning this time I don't

                          think I ever spent over 15 dollars on any game and did not play every day. I sent copies of my tickets

                          to others and they can verifi what I say.   I win several 4 or 5's within any given year and have hit as

                          many as 3 or 4,  4 of 5's in one game play.  The $400.00 mentioned above could fund my play for up

                          to six months even if I never won another prize in that time.   

                           

                          RL

                          * Generate a large group of 5 number sets simulating many people buying tickets.

                          * Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.

                          * Record how many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a

                            drawing and the prizes paid. 

                          * Do this many times and you should  find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.

                          * 2 of 5 and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

                           

                          OK.  Let's say I've done this, and I come to some conclusion about why there was a particular number of 4/5s over the last few days.  Unless my conclusion is an indictment of the Lottery's computerized random selection process, or a ball weighting problem, and I suspect it has persistance, of what value would it be in divining tonight's draw?

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                            United States
                            Member #59354
                            March 13, 2008
                            3985 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 20, 2011, 9:35 am - IP Logged

                            Jimmy

                            Every lottery that I know of uses RNG's and without them there would be no quick-picks.  The

                            purpose for this workout was to show that random QP's are not evenly distributed and large

                            clumps of similar number sets are produced.  This can be tested but is not really necessary.

                            I view QP's like this.  If a lottery like my 5-39 sells 70,000 tickets on any given day and 70% of

                            those are QP's or 49,000 then what are the odds that the final set will duplicate one of the

                            previous generated sets,  about 1 in every 12 draws on average.  In reality this is how all lotteries

                            work regardless of how the final set is drawn.  If the last set generated resembles one of the clumps

                            of similar numbers there will be more higher prize matches.  I have tested many RNG's over the years

                            and have found they all perform very similar.  You may say, so what, this has no effect on the final set

                            as it can be any number within the matrix and be correct,  but at least think about it.  Running many

                            like test can lead to some very interesting results. 

                            RL


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 20, 2011, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

                              Jimmy

                              Every lottery that I know of uses RNG's and without them there would be no quick-picks.  The

                              purpose for this workout was to show that random QP's are not evenly distributed and large

                              clumps of similar number sets are produced.  This can be tested but is not really necessary.

                              I view QP's like this.  If a lottery like my 5-39 sells 70,000 tickets on any given day and 70% of

                              those are QP's or 49,000 then what are the odds that the final set will duplicate one of the

                              previous generated sets,  about 1 in every 12 draws on average.  In reality this is how all lotteries

                              work regardless of how the final set is drawn.  If the last set generated resembles one of the clumps

                              of similar numbers there will be more higher prize matches.  I have tested many RNG's over the years

                              and have found they all perform very similar.  You may say, so what, this has no effect on the final set

                              as it can be any number within the matrix and be correct,  but at least think about it.  Running many

                              like test can lead to some very interesting results. 

                              RL

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                              It looks to me like you are comparing patterns in the distribution of winning tickets to those expected with truly Random Quickpicks.  Below, I hope I can convince you this is not a fruitful endeavor because it ignores important questions and facts.

                              "You may say, so what, this has no effect on the final set as it can be any number within the matrix and be correct,  but at least think about it."

                              This is correct, and I have. (See Below.)

                              "Running many like test can lead to some very interesting results."

                              Only interesting if they can be used in court in a prosecution of the Lottery!

                              It makes no difference overall how lotteries choose Quickpicks, provided their Draw of the winning set is as Random as is physically possible.  Your observations and calculations show that the Lottery does not have to do anything but generate Random QPs to the best of their ability, because the patterns you've been observing will then occur "Randomly," or "Naturally" if you like.

                              Since the game you like is the Missouri SM-5, and you're primarily interested in the 4 of 5 wins, WHICH HAVE A FIXED PAYOUT, why would you care what the Quickpicks distribution looks like, UNLESS you think Missouri is planning what the Draw will be to conform to this distribution?  Even if it WAS valuable information, I doubt if you have a REAL-TIME bug into the tally of the distribution of the bets as Draw-Time approaches.  This whole debate hinges on the question of whether the DRAW is RANDOM, or NOT!   In a FAIR Game, knowledge of the distribution of Fixed Payout combos will not help you win more money.

                              I think you're trying to get "Blood Out Of A Turnip!"

                              If you think the Lottery Techs are manipulating the Draw, you really should be contacting your Missouri State Representative.  Otherwise, I must ask yesterday's question again:

                              * Generate a large group of 5 number sets simulating many people buying tickets.

                              * Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.

                              * Record how many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a

                                drawing and the prizes paid. 

                              * Do this many times and you should  find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.

                              * 2 of 5 and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

                               OK.  Let's say I've done this, and I come to some conclusion about why there was a particular number of 4/5s over the last few days.  Unless my conclusion is an indictment of the Lottery's computerized random selection process, or a ball weighting problem, and I suspect it has persistance, of what value would it be in divining tonight's draw?

                              --Jimmy4164


                                 
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