United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 3985 Posts Offline

Posted: January 18, 2011, 1:31 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 17, 2011

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters? And what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

--Jimmy4164

jimmy

I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse

them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the

expected. Remember the method you use to calculate what will happen over time as in your

30 years of pick-3 analysis, same thing but with a much smaller pool of possible outcomes. I can

tell you with a very small margin of error how many drawings will have 3 odd numbers 30 years in

the future if the game should last that long. I can't predict what will happen in the next draw but

I can predict what will happen most. This is buillt into the game and is really not predicting anything.

I could and often have used the word predict and that was wrong. I should have said I made the

correct choice given the data I had at my disposal. Being 100% correct is required to win a 5 of 5

with my method of play but 20% correct overall can still win something. I can count on my fingers

the times I played and did now win a lower prize in 2010. I give myself a little better then 0%

chance of hitting a 5 of 5 on any given day but I expect to win or break even over any given week

or month. The only way to win is to play and the only way to improve chances for a JP is to buy more

tickets. The only way to play often without incurring a loss is to hit many lower prizes or a Jackpot.

The smartest way to play is to play that which will hit most often. It does not take any real brain

power to know that sets with 3 odd numbers will be drawn more often then sets with 0 odd numbers

so I will play 3 odd before I would play 0 odd. Same thing using digits 1-2-3, I know on average how

many drawings will have all 3 and how many will have 2 or 1. I will play all 3 almost every day I play

because even if they don't all hit, 2 of 3 can still produce a lower prize. Playing the lottery for free is

a very good feeling and makes it much more fun which is why I continue to play. I very often miss the

100% by one setting, If I can do this on a regular bases then why would I believe I will not make that

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: January 18, 2011, 3:03 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on January 18, 2011

jimmy

I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse

them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the

expected. Remember the method you use to calculate what will happen over time as in your

30 years of pick-3 analysis, same thing but with a much smaller pool of possible outcomes. I can

tell you with a very small margin of error how many drawings will have 3 odd numbers 30 years in

the future if the game should last that long. I can't predict what will happen in the next draw but

I can predict what will happen most. This is buillt into the game and is really not predicting anything.

I could and often have used the word predict and that was wrong. I should have said I made the

correct choice given the data I had at my disposal. Being 100% correct is required to win a 5 of 5

with my method of play but 20% correct overall can still win something. I can count on my fingers

the times I played and did now win a lower prize in 2010. I give myself a little better then 0%

chance of hitting a 5 of 5 on any given day but I expect to win or break even over any given week

or month. The only way to win is to play and the only way to improve chances for a JP is to buy more

tickets. The only way to play often without incurring a loss is to hit many lower prizes or a Jackpot.

The smartest way to play is to play that which will hit most often. It does not take any real brain

power to know that sets with 3 odd numbers will be drawn more often then sets with 0 odd numbers

so I will play 3 odd before I would play 0 odd. Same thing using digits 1-2-3, I know on average how

many drawings will have all 3 and how many will have 2 or 1. I will play all 3 almost every day I play

because even if they don't all hit, 2 of 3 can still produce a lower prize. Playing the lottery for free is

a very good feeling and makes it much more fun which is why I continue to play. I very often miss the

100% by one setting, If I can do this on a regular bases then why would I believe I will not make that

final step. Just the way I see it.

RL

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

You said,I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the expected.

This and the rest of your posting is a paraphrase of much of what you've been writing here for months. "...a margin of error from the expected." Hmmm... You insist you don't look back, so just what are you saying here?" This posting doesn't tell us anything of value, and it definitely doesn't address the questions in my last post.

By the way, I know EXACTLY what you mean when you say you are not using past draw results to choose your sets, and consequently are not guilty of the Gambler's fallacy. My reason for continually questioning you on this is because of statements like those above, and your reluctance to answer questions like the ones in my last post to you, repeated here:

-------------------------------------------

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

(1)What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters? And (2)what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

--Jimmy4164

----------------------------

P.S. You claim you break even without winning Jackpots. It surely must not be with the Powerball, because to perform this feat there, you would have to win all the lesser prizes (up to and including the 4WB + PB) at a RATE7.4 Times Expected, because the Expected Value of a $1 Powerball ticket is 13.5¢, UNLESS you hit a 5 Bagger or a Jackpot.

If you could do this, I don't think you would be here trying to convince me that you can!

I really would like to hear your response to the 2 questions above, and I suspect I'm not the only one who would.

United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 3985 Posts Offline

Posted: January 18, 2011, 9:25 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 18, 2011

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

You said,I take 100 of so samples of different sizes from different points within my database and analyse them to see how well each sample follows the matrix and look for a margin of error from the expected.

This and the rest of your posting is a paraphrase of much of what you've been writing here for months. "...a margin of error from the expected." Hmmm... You insist you don't look back, so just what are you saying here?" This posting doesn't tell us anything of value, and it definitely doesn't address the questions in my last post.

By the way, I know EXACTLY what you mean when you say you are not using past draw results to choose your sets, and consequently are not guilty of the Gambler's fallacy. My reason for continually questioning you on this is because of statements like those above, and your reluctance to answer questions like the ones in my last post to you, repeated here:

-------------------------------------------

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

You said, "Lets say that I play 2 to 3 odd most days because of the matrix, I make a run and because of the digits and other setting I have used I get too many numbers to play."

(1)What sorts of events or observations prompt you to make one setting over another in your various parameters? And (2)what would compel you to use different settings today, from those you used yesterday?

--Jimmy4164

----------------------------

P.S. You claim you break even without winning Jackpots. It surely must not be with the Powerball, because to perform this feat there, you would have to win all the lesser prizes (up to and including the 4WB + PB) at a RATE7.4 Times Expected, because the Expected Value of a $1 Powerball ticket is 13.5¢, UNLESS you hit a 5 Bagger or a Jackpot.

If you could do this, I don't think you would be here trying to convince me that you can!

I really would like to hear your response to the 2 questions above, and I suspect I'm not the only one who would.

Jimmy

OK, I see what you are after. I started to post a reply showing in detail how I calculate my

selections and two hours later I am not even close to having it done so I am going to paste

it to notepad to finish it at a later time. Knowing how you scrutinise what I write It will take

much proofing before it can be posted and will still be full of mistakes. It will not be for the

lighthearted and much of it cannot be done without software. I will have very litttle time

to work on this for the next week or so.

Power Ball question.

I only play my 5-39 game except for when PB or MB jump up very high and then when I do

play I will likely buy QP's. It is very hard to hit the lower prizes for these games because of

the spread. The odds are just to great for me to consider. Each matrix has it own little quirks

and requires retraining before playing. I do play My 6-44 game from time to time as I can play

2 lines for a dollar. The more I stick to one game the better I do. I try to stick to 8 to 12 lines

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19831 Posts Offline

Posted: January 18, 2011, 11:15 am - IP Logged

combination size 5 basic pool size 59 (B) Bonus pool size 39 smallest match no (B) number 3 largest match with bonus 5 smallest match with bonus 0 tickets or chances per draw 195249054 possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054 MATCHES ODDS WINNING COMBOS EXPECTED WINNERS PAYOUTS 5/5+B 1 : 195249054 1 1.00 JP 5/5+0 1 : 5138133 38 38.00 $7600000 4/5+B 1 : 723145 270 270.00 $2700000 4/5+0 1 : 19030 10260 10260.00 $1026000 3/5+B 1 : 13644 14310 14310.00 $1431000 3/5+0 1 : 359 543780 543780.01 $3806460 2/5+B 1 : 787 248040 248040.00 $1736280 1/5+B 1 : 123 1581255 1581255.02 $6325020 0/5+B 1 : 62 3162510 3162510.03 $9487530 ______________________________________________________________________________ overall odds are 1 : 35.1 5560464.0 total expected winners 5560464 winning combos = 2.84 % of possible combos

PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets. Unless a regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: January 18, 2011, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on January 18, 2011

combination size 5 basic pool size 59 (B) Bonus pool size 39 smallest match no (B) number 3 largest match with bonus 5 smallest match with bonus 0 tickets or chances per draw 195249054 possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054 MATCHES ODDS WINNING COMBOS EXPECTED WINNERS PAYOUTS 5/5+B 1 : 195249054 1 1.00 JP 5/5+0 1 : 5138133 38 38.00 $7600000 4/5+B 1 : 723145 270 270.00 $2700000 4/5+0 1 : 19030 10260 10260.00 $1026000 3/5+B 1 : 13644 14310 14310.00 $1431000 3/5+0 1 : 359 543780 543780.01 $3806460 2/5+B 1 : 787 248040 248040.00 $1736280 1/5+B 1 : 123 1581255 1581255.02 $6325020 0/5+B 1 : 62 3162510 3162510.03 $9487530 ______________________________________________________________________________ overall odds are 1 : 35.1 5560464.0 total expected winners 5560464 winning combos = 2.84 % of possible combos

PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets. Unless a regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets.

"PB with its posted odds and payouts expect to only payout $34,112,290 in smaller prizes when it sells 195,249,054 chances to win its jackpot which is only 17.5% of the money spent on those tickets. Unless a regular and consistent player wins the jackpot, he should never expect to recover more than 20% of the money he spends on tickets."

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2011, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on January 19, 2011

Anyone

Below are the results for the last 5 MO. SM-Cash 5 drawings. There is nothing special about

any of these drawings. What I would like you to look at is the 3 of 5 and the 4 of 5 wins for each

game with most attention on the 4 of 5's. First notice that ticket sales do not seem to have a

effect on this. My question is what is the most logical reason for the 4 of 5's hits within these

draws? Take your time because the most obvious may not be correct.

Tue, Jan 18, 2011 11-13-28-30-36

Estimated JP = 55,000

Match 5 of 5 = 0 $0

Match 4 of 5 = 10 $250.00

Match 3 of 5 = 510 $10.00

Match 2 of 5 = 6,211 $1.00

Total Winners: 6,731 $13,811

Mon, Jan 17, 2011 5-6-15-20-39

Estimated JP = 50,000

Match 5 of 5 = 0 $0

Match 4 of 5 = 11 $250.00

Match 3 of 5 = 592 $10.00

Match 2 of 5 = 5,665 $1.00

Total Winners: 6,268 $14,335

Sun, Jan 16, 2011 3-11-17-24-29

Estimated JP = 86,000

Match 5 of 5 = 1 $86,000

Match 4 of 5 = 29 $250.00

Match 3 of 5 = 695 $10.00

Match 2 of 5 = 6,248 $1.00

Total Winners: 6,973 $20,448 - JP

Sat, Jan 15, 2011 23-25-28-33-36

Estimated JP = 66,000

Match 5 of 5 = 0 $66,000

Match 4 of 5 = 14 $250.00

Match 3 of 5 = 659 $10.00

Match 2 of 5 = 7,326 $1.00

Total Winners: 7,999 $17,416

Fri, Jan 14, 2011 10-19-29-31-38

Estimated JP = 50,000

Match 5 of 5 = 0 $0

Match 4 of 5 = 26 $250.00

Match 3 of 5 = 622 $10.00

Match 2 of 5 = 6,597 $1.00

Total Winners: 7,245 $19,317

RL

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

It's not really clear to me what we should notice in this small set of results. If you are seeing some pattern related to the number of ODD or EVEN numbers, or the number of unique digits, or something to do with prime numbers, it's of no relevance, other than the fact that more people (like you) might bet on certain patterns, so that when theyDO HIT, there are more winners! No matter what you are trying to show, this would not be nearly enough data to draw any conclusions anyway.

It's amazing to me that you still believe that you are likely to win more money if you choose sets consisting of numbers or patterns that appear with a higher frequency than others in the total universe of possibilities. This is no different than someone rejecting all sets containing numbers less than 10, becausethey counted, and discovered that more sets are drawn containing, exclusively, the numbers between 10 and 39, than sets with only 1 through 9. So what? Ironically, both strategies, over the long haul, will result in the same winnings!

Don Catlin covers this ground quite well, using the Sum the Set example:

As with the Powerball, it's hard to state the expected value of the Jackpot, because there is typically not a winner for every draw, and the amount increases until someone wins. But it's easy to see what you will win on average by hitting on the 2, 3, and 4 of 5 combinations only, which is the majority experience.

If you start with $1000 and bet $20 per week on the Missouri ShowMe-5, at the end of a year, you are very likely to have about $246 left.

UNLESS, However, Your Ship Comes In! You would have purchased 1040 tickets during the year, so you had a 554 to 1 chance of winning a minimum of $50,000!

Actually, in regard to the smaller prizes, this Missouri (5,39) Lotto is a better deal than the Powerball!

United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 3985 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2011, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on January 19, 2011

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

It's not really clear to me what we should notice in this small set of results. If you are seeing some pattern related to the number of ODD or EVEN numbers, or the number of unique digits, or something to do with prime numbers, it's of no relevance, other than the fact that more people (like you) might bet on certain patterns, so that when theyDO HIT, there are more winners! No matter what you are trying to show, this would not be nearly enough data to draw any conclusions anyway.

It's amazing to me that you still believe that you are likely to win more money if you choose sets consisting of numbers or patterns that appear with a higher frequency than others in the total universe of possibilities. This is no different than someone rejecting all sets containing numbers less than 10, becausethey counted, and discovered that more sets are drawn containing, exclusively, the numbers between 10 and 39, than sets with only 1 through 9. So what? Ironically, both strategies, over the long haul, will result in the same winnings!

Don Catlin covers this ground quite well, using the Sum the Set example:

As with the Powerball, it's hard to state the expected value of the Jackpot, because there is typically not a winner for every draw, and the amount increases until someone wins. But it's easy to see what you will win on average by hitting on the 2, 3, and 4 of 5 combinations only, which is the majority experience.

If you start with $1000 and bet $20 per week on the Missouri ShowMe-5, at the end of a year, you are very likely to have about $246 left.

UNLESS, However, Your Ship Comes In! You would have purchased 1040 tickets during the year, so you had a 554 to 1 chance of winning a minimum of $50,000!

Actually, in regard to the smaller prizes, this Missouri (5,39) Lotto is a better deal than the Powerball!

--Jimmy4164

Jimmy

Odd even has nothing to do with this question, I would like to say that high 4 of 5's are the

days I play but not the case here. Think larger and the patterns that exist here are repeated

over and over. It's kind of a trick question, the pattern has nothing to do with numbers drawn.

but tickets played. Population distrubition of randomly selected sets. Look at a single game

but not at the set drawn but of the many tickets sold. Generate a large group of 5 number sets

simulating many people buying tickets.

Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets. Record how

many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a drawing and the prizes

paid.

Do this many times and you should find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others. 2 of 5

and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

Part 2:

The results that RJ posted are overall and I agree 100%. I came out ahead overall for 2010,

Some may say it's luck and others may say I am being untruthful but I am telling it as it is. It's

not rare for me to go over a month without playing and a few weeks ago I played 5 days in a row

and won money 4 of those days. The 5th day I lost and that ended my play. The wife also played

over the same time and won 2 days then lost $13.00 the third day and stoped playing. Back during

my post I won around $400.00 in a very short time frame of about 10 days. Durning this time I don't

think I ever spent over 15 dollars on any game and did not play every day. I sent copies of my tickets

to others and they can verifi what I say. I win several 4 or 5's within any given year and have hit as

many as 3 or 4, 4 of 5's in one game play. The $400.00 mentioned above could fund my play for up

to six months even if I never won another prize in that time.

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: January 20, 2011, 12:43 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on January 19, 2011

Jimmy

Odd even has nothing to do with this question, I would like to say that high 4 of 5's are the

days I play but not the case here. Think larger and the patterns that exist here are repeated

over and over. It's kind of a trick question, the pattern has nothing to do with numbers drawn.

but tickets played. Population distrubition of randomly selected sets. Look at a single game

but not at the set drawn but of the many tickets sold. Generate a large group of 5 number sets

simulating many people buying tickets.

Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets. Record how

many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a drawing and the prizes

paid.

Do this many times and you should find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others. 2 of 5

and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

Part 2:

The results that RJ posted are overall and I agree 100%. I came out ahead overall for 2010,

Some may say it's luck and others may say I am being untruthful but I am telling it as it is. It's

not rare for me to go over a month without playing and a few weeks ago I played 5 days in a row

and won money 4 of those days. The 5th day I lost and that ended my play. The wife also played

over the same time and won 2 days then lost $13.00 the third day and stoped playing. Back during

my post I won around $400.00 in a very short time frame of about 10 days. Durning this time I don't

think I ever spent over 15 dollars on any game and did not play every day. I sent copies of my tickets

to others and they can verifi what I say. I win several 4 or 5's within any given year and have hit as

many as 3 or 4, 4 of 5's in one game play. The $400.00 mentioned above could fund my play for up

to six months even if I never won another prize in that time.

RL

* Generate a large group of 5 number sets simulating many people buying tickets.

* Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.

* Record how many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a

drawing and the prizes paid.

* Do this many times and you should find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.

* 2 of 5 and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

OK. Let's say I've done this, and I come to some conclusion about why there was a particular number of 4/5s over the last few days. Unless my conclusion is an indictment of the Lottery's computerized random selection process, or a ball weighting problem, and I suspect it has persistance, of what value would it be in divining tonight's draw?

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: January 20, 2011, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on January 20, 2011

Jimmy

Every lottery that I know of uses RNG's and without them there would be no quick-picks. The

purpose for this workout was to show that random QP's are not evenly distributed and large

clumps of similar number sets are produced. This can be tested but is not really necessary.

I view QP's like this. If a lottery like my 5-39 sells 70,000 tickets on any given day and 70% of

those are QP's or 49,000 then what are the odds that the final set will duplicate one of the

previous generated sets, about 1 in every 12 draws on average. In reality this is how all lotteries

work regardless of how the final set is drawn. If the last set generated resembles one of the clumps

of similar numbers there will be more higher prize matches. I have tested many RNG's over the years

and have found they all perform very similar. You may say, so what, this has no effect on the final set

as it can be any number within the matrix and be correct, but at least think about it. Running many

like test can lead to some very interesting results.

RL

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

It looks to me like you are comparing patterns in the distribution of winning tickets to those expected with truly Random Quickpicks. Below, I hope I can convince you this is not a fruitful endeavor because it ignores important questions and facts.

"You may say, so what, this has no effect on the final set as it can be any number within the matrix and be correct, but at least think about it."

This is correct, and I have. (See Below.)

"Running many like test can lead to some very interesting results."

Only interesting if they can be used in court in a prosecution of the Lottery!

It makes no difference overall how lotteries choose Quickpicks, provided their Draw of the winning set is as Random as is physically possible. Your observations and calculations show that the Lottery does not have to do anything but generate Random QPs to the best of their ability, because the patterns you've been observing will then occur "Randomly," or "Naturally" if you like.

Since the game you like is the Missouri SM-5, and you're primarily interested in the 4 of 5 wins, WHICH HAVE A FIXED PAYOUT, why would you care what the Quickpicks distribution looks like, UNLESS you think Missouri is planning what the Draw will be to conform to this distribution? Even if it WAS valuable information, I doubt if you have a REAL-TIME bug into the tally of the distribution of the bets as Draw-Time approaches. This whole debate hinges on the question of whether the DRAW is RANDOM, or NOT! In a FAIR Game, knowledge of the distribution of Fixed Payout combos will not help you win more money.

I think you're trying to get "Blood Out Of A Turnip!"

If you think the Lottery Techs are manipulating the Draw, you really should be contacting your Missouri State Representative. Otherwise, I must ask yesterday's question again:

* Generate a large group of 5 number sets simulating many people buying tickets.

* Next pick a single set and check it against all the sets in the large groups of sets.

* Record how many 4 and 5 of 5's matches in the large groups of sets simulating a

drawing and the prizes paid.

* Do this many times and you should find why some days have more 4 of 5's then others.

* 2 of 5 and 3 of 5's are really not a product of this observation

OK. Let's say I've done this, and I come to some conclusion about why there was a particular number of 4/5s over the last few days. Unless my conclusion is an indictment of the Lottery's computerized random selection process, or a ball weighting problem, and I suspect it has persistance, of what value would it be in divining tonight's draw?